originally on Posted Oct 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

The condition of America’s workforce remains undetermined, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is currently not operational. The non-farm payrolls report will be delayed even if the unlikely event that the government reconciles today. The Chicago Federal Reserve compiled a separate report that indicates a contraction in the workforce.

Unemployment remains stagnant at 4.34%, up a mere 0.01% from August. Layoffs also remained relatively unchanged at 2.1%. We have not reached the point of mass layoffs where companies can no longer afford to pay their employees. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported in a separate analysis that layoffs declined 37% in September and fell 26% YoY. The company reported that planned furloughs are at their highest level since 2020, with 946,426 cuts between Q1 and Q3.

Companies are fighting to retain employees, and there are no signs of expansion. New hires for the year totaled 204,939, marking a massive 58% annual decline. The US economy has not seen such a slow pace of hiring since 2009 in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Yet, the jobs data under the Biden Administration hid the real problem as the PUBLIC sector multiplied while the private sector stagnated.

The ADP report that is used as a confirmation of the BLS has been closely monitored in the wake of the government shutdown. The private sector eliminated 32,000 positions in September–a glaring warning sign as the markets were predicting an expansion of over 50,000. Private payrolls for August were revised to show a loss of 3,000 jobs, after data initially indicated a gain of 54,000. The ISM manufacturing survey index slightly rose to 49.1 in September from 48.7 but remains in depleted territory.

Small-and medium-sized businesses have been hit the hardest. Large corporations with over 500 employees did, in fact, add 33,000 jobs, offset by the number of layoffs smaller companies were forced to endure. Wage increases for workers who changed jobs in September fell to 6.6% from 7.1% MoM. Annual wage growth for job-stayers fell flat.

“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement.

The Federal Reserve will likely state that it needs the official BLS data to make an informed decision. Powell is careful with his words. Rate cuts will not entice companies to expand, despite Washington’s insistence that they would, as employers lack confidence in the future.

originally on Posted Oct 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong | 

The threat of losing military protection did not persuade Taiwan to move half its chip manufacturing to the United States. Top trade negotiator and vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun stated that the 50-50 proposal would not be considered or even discussed. Instead, Taiwan plans to focus on lowering US-imposed tariffs that now stand at 20%.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick believes that Taiwan’s chip production would be safer on US soil. The US relies on Taiwan for an astounding 95% of chip production and cannot lose this strategic trade. “My objective, and this administration’s objective, is to get chip manufacturing significantly onshored — we need to make our own chips,” Lutnick said. “The idea that I pitched [Taiwan] was, let’s get to 50-50. We’re producing half, and you’re producing half.”

There is a belief that the “Silicon Shield” deters Chinese military aggression as the island has global dominance over semiconductor manufacturing. It is true that semiconductor production is the best, if not only, leverage the nation holds.

China accused Taiwan of “selling out” to US influence, repeatedly reminding the nation that they are a province and not a sovereign country. Separatist ambitions are impossible without US military backing. Yet, now there is a concern that the nation would be surrendering its key economic component to the US. Both China and the US want to corner Taiwan and one will win.

Eric Chu, leader of Kuomintang opposition party, is less keen to cave to US demands than President Tsai Ing-wen. “No one can sell out Taiwan or TSMC, and no one can undermine Taiwan’s silicon shield,” Chu said, in reference to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

Manufacturing on US soil is far more costly and there is a concern that this could slow innovation and create new logistical issues. Yet, China has been ramping up One China policy rhetoric. President Xi Jinping called on the nation to “firmly oppose Taiwan independence separatist activities and external interference,” reaffirming China’s commitment to defend its “sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 established the “one-China principle” that states Taiwan is a Chinese province under international law. The majority of UN member states agree and Taiwan has been blocked from participating in international organizations. The resolution, however, is vague and does not explicitly mention Taiwan. Rather, it “expels forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek from the place which they unlawfully occupy in the United Nations and in all the organizations related to it.” Chiang Kai-shek was the leader of the communist Republic of China (ROC) who was forced to retreat to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the Chinese civil war. Chiang Kai-shek ran Taiwan as an independent nation to the dismay of the international community. The UN officially recognized the People’s Republic of China over the ROC in 1971 and has not changed its stance.

Governments are increasingly undermining globalist organizations like the UN and ignoring past treaties. This matter cannot be solved with pen and paper.

originally on Posted Oct 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Recent data from the Chicago Fed and ADP indicate new hires at a 16-year low. The ADP offered a bit of promising news for large corporations as they managed to expand by 33,000 positions last month. Yet, no corporation is immune to the increased cost of goods, excessive regulation, and taxation. Socrates has warned that unemployment will top 6% by 2026, and we are beginning to see the warning signs in Q4.

Exxon Mobil plans to slash 2,000 positions, representing 3% to 4% of the global workforce. “Our global office network was established decades ago under very different circumstances,” Exxon said in a statement to Barron’s. “To support the collaboration so critical to our success, we are aligning our global footprint with our operating model and bringing our teams together.”

Exxon Chairman and CEO Darren Woods stated that the company is aiming to “redesign work processes and improve cost competitiveness.” “We are making tough decisions, some of which will result in friends and colleagues leaving the company,” Woods said back in 2020. The global economy never truly recovered from the pandemic. I discussed the ongoing issue with crude and the broader implications on the private blog.

Numerous oil giants announced mass layoffs. Chevron drastically reduced its payroll by cutting over 15% of its workforce. Imperial Oil is slashing its staff by 20% over the next two years. Total Energies is looking for a way to save $7.5 billion over the next five years.

Oil shocks are typically geopolitical in nature. It is not inflationary or demand-driven. Oil is a global reserve commodity that responds to shifts in capital flows and confidence. Energy is leverage and power, which is why is closely aligns with the war cycle. Companies overall are hedging against expected volatility by cutting costs, but oil companies are especially prone to stress due to the current geopolitical atmosphere.