Posted originally on Jul 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) issued a new report that found tariffs are not to blame for inflation. In fact, the cost of imported goods has fallen this past year to a lower level than that of overall goods.
“CEA’s directional findings using this method of analyzing the PCE are consistent across core goods (excluding food and energy), durables (which last for at least three years), and nondurables,” the report reads. “The import contribution to inflation includes both the direct impact of imported final goods for consumption and indirect effects of imported intermediate inputs.”
Imported goods fell by 0.8% while the price of overall goods remained stagnant. The PCE index rose 0.4% from December to May or a 1% annualized rate, according to the CEA’s findings. Yet, the imported portion of PCE fell by 0.1% during the same period.
“The results clearly show the price of imported components declining, starting in March, while overall prices were close to unchanged or increased slightly,” the report reads. “Cumulatively, overall PCE prices have increased by about 1.1% since December compared to about 0.2% for PCE import prices. However, those values include pricing for services, which tend to have lower import intensity, so the divergence could be due to stickier services prices.”
The agency concluded “there is no clear trend break” this year in prices, despite the headlines claiming tariffs are the reason inflation remains above target.
Posted originally on Jul 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Minutes Report by the Federal Reserve indicates that the central bank is unlikely to cut rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 29-30. FOMC members unanimously maintained the borrowing range between 4.25%-4.5% where it has stood since December 2024. The central bank knows that it has limited power to control inflation through rate cuts, and stimulating demand is a moot point when the government is the largest borrower.
Instead of noting that the government simply borrows in perpetuity, Fed members focused on uncertainty surrounding tariffs and a potentially weakening labor market. Chairman Jerome Powell stated that cutting rates was a “closer call” as the 2% inflation target as been out of reach for several years. “With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated,” the FOMC minutes said. The last CPI reading was 2.7% with the PCE coming in at 2.4%.
The ongoing Trump v Powell feud is potentially spilling over into policy. Despite non-foreign-born citizens picking up over 2 million jobs as a direct result of deportation efforts, the Fed believes that the weakening labor market could be the result of deporting cheap labor. “Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased. As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy,” the minutes said. Unemployment fell to 4.1% with June posting an increase of 147,000 jobs.
The Fed is also blaming Trump’s tariff policies for inflation. “Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer,” the Fed Chair told reporters in June. “We do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer.” Powell is confusing a one-time price adjustment with a monetary-driven inflationary wave that began in 2015 and soared after the pandemic. As previously noted, “almost all” participants saw trade policy as an upside risk to inflation. “Many participants noted that the eventual effect of tariffs on inflation could be more limited if trade deals are reached soon, if firms are able to quickly adjust their supply chains, or if firms can use other margins of adjustment to reduce their exposure to the effects of tariffs,” the Minutes stated.
A ”couple” of members stated rate cuts could happen at the next meeting, with Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller going on record to say that they believe rate cuts are appropriate this month. “Several” officials said the overnight rate “may not be far” from target, believing a bit of adjustment could bring inflation to target. The “dot plot” of individual officials indicates a divide on the outlook of cuts.
The Minutes Report noted that two rate cuts could potentially happen in 2025, followed by additional cuts over the next few years. Powell has less than a year left in office, and the president is certain to appoint someone who will abide by his policy that he sees through the eyes of a borrower and not a lender.
Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
We’re pleased to announce that the next World Economic Conference will be held in:
Orlando, Florida on November 21– 23, 2025
As many of you know, the WEC is not your typical financial conference. It’s where we bring together minds from around the world—investors, analysts, and policymakers—to explore how capital truly moves across borders, markets, and cycles. This is your chance to understand what Socrates sees ahead before the rest of the world catches up.
Tickets go on sale to the public on Tuesday, July 29.
These events typically sell out quickly, and with growing global demand and virtual attendance now available, we recommend acting early. Whether you’re attending in person or online, this year’s WEC promises crucial insight into where we stand on the Economic Confidence Model—and where we’re going.
Posted originally on Jul 7, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The primary difference between mutual funds and ETFs (exchange-traded funds) is that while an open-end mutual fund is priced once based on the market closing, ETFs, as well as closed-end mutual funds, trade all day. This actually goes back to the Panic of 1966 when mutual funds were open-ended but traded on the exchange and were bid up and down based on emotion rather than net asset value. The crash took place because mutual funds were, at times, selling well above net asset value.
If we look at the reforms post-1966, investors in mutual funds buy or sell them directly from the mutual fund companies themselves. That creates a different tax structure than an ETF in which purchases go to the market and the ETF is simply created by purchasing the underlying basket.
Mutual funds and most ETFs are governed by the Investment Company Act of 1940. Therefore, this legislation treats them like a pass-through company. When a mutual-fund investor wants to sell, the fund sells shares of appreciated stock to generate cash, which creates a taxable capital gain. Since most funds operate as simple pass-through vehicles, those tax liabilities from the gains accrue to all investors in the fund, including those who have not sold any holdings.
ETFs actually do avoid that type of tax issue. ETFs are not direct buyers or sellers of shares as a mutual fund. The ETF is created by a market maker with a special contract with the ETF provider. The investor has the newly created ETF share, which is created by purchasing all of the holdings in the underlying ETF. This basket of shares is given to the ETF issuer, thereby creating the ETF shares.
Because an ETF is not a direct buyer of the underlying shares as in a mutual fund, the ETF itself is not a buyer or seller. The basket of shares is swapped and is therefore an in-kind transaction; thus, there is no pass-through capital-gains tax bill. This is the tax advantage of an ETF over a mutual fund.
Posted originally on Jul 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been focusing on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory, which marks a significant shift in humanity. While this may be true, as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the true Economic Confidence Model.
The 80-year theory, also known as the Strauss–Howe generational theory, posits that there are four 20-year cycles or turnings that culminate in a cataclysmic event. For example, some are using 2024 as the starting point, which brings us back to 1944 when America was at the cusp of World War II. Going back an additional 80 years would bring us to 1864, the year of the US Civil War. Taking it back even further, we arrive at 1784 when the Revolutionary War ended.
Now, absolutely everything is connected, and garnering the most accurate forecasts requires peering out at society and the global economy. The problem with the 80-year theory is that it was developed from a solely American viewpoint, as it was designed to explain the history and future of the United States.
The Economic Confidence Model, at a basic level, sees waves of 8.6 years building in intensity, amounting to six waves to construct a major long wave of 51.6 years. What you get at the end of these 51.6-year waves is very profound. After the 1774.95 peak, we end up with a revolution against the monarchy. The next wave peak in 1826.55 produced the Russo-Persian War, 1826-1828, Greek War of Independence, Battle of Monte Santiago between Brazil and Argentina, Mexican Constitution is formed, the Maryland Democratic Party begins creating the confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans (South v North) which sets the stage for the American Civil War in 1861, and even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the 4th of July 1826 (1826.50) marking the end of the generation of Enlightenment whereas the peak of the wave was July 19th. The next wave, 1878, saw the Long Depression, which was called the “Great Depression” until 1929-1932. The next wave peak of 1929,75 produced the takeover of the West by socialists. Then the next wave was 1981.35, which marked the peak in interest rates even to the day.
Each of these events shifted society as a whole. Capital concentration shifted profoundly, altering nations. Nothing exists in isolation. The major wave is expected to be in 2032, and this will be followed by a shift in economic power from the West to the
Posted originally on Jul 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, your model on volcanoes had correctly forecast this surge in activity in the Ring of Fire for 2025. Do you view this as part of the warning that we are headed into global cooling, rather than warming? Why does the media refuse to highlight all the correct events your computer has been able to forecast when nobody else comes close?
AP
ANSWER: This has been my concern. Climate News just reported: “The Pacific Ring of Fire has witnessed an alarming surge in seismic activity throughout 2024 and early 2025.” I have tried to help society, but those who opposed me cannot even now admit that what they were doing was taking control of the computer by sheer force. I reported back in 2022 that the low would be in 2019, which was the point from which the activity would begin to rise. As you see, we have a string of Directional Changes into 2030. However, take a close look and you will see a Panic Cycle in 2031.
I’m sorry, these climate experts offer personal opinions. It takes an objective viewpoint to see what honestly lies ahead in this journey we call life. The media will never report on what Socrates has done. It would discredit everything they have been saying for years.
Posted originally on Jun 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, why is it that the press and academia are not beating down your doors when you are the only one who had forecasted a recession into 2028 years in advance? I can only assume that this is a deliberate conspiracy to prevent others from understanding that the world economy is not random and, as you say, it’s all a confidence game. Do you think this is a conspiracy against you, aimed at preventing you from educating society?
HL
ANSWER: Yes, it is a conspiracy insofar as they do not want people to see that the economy is ordered and not random chaos. Here is Larry Summers saying that if you could forecast the future, then it would be self-fulfilling, which is how they view me. I even had the Commodity Futures Trading Commission file a complaint against me, demanding that I turn over a list of all my clients. They told the court that I was manipulating the world economy, and if I turned over my client list, they could prove it. My lawyer asked the court where the statute was that said I could not manipulate the entire world right down to his salary. He agreed, laughed, and denied them their crazy subpoena.
What’s at stake here? You vote for a politician who promises to solve a problem that they cannot. Democrats cannot blame Trump’s tariffs if the economy is turning down with or without his tariff war. WE are headed into war as the computer forecast because these people are on the verge of collapse. They need war as a decoy to blame Putin, just as Biden blamed Putin for the rise in gasoline prices when it was Biden who imposed the sanctions, not Putin. They MUST go to war for 72 years of borrowing with no intention of paying anything back, is now bringing the entire financial system to a grinding halt. The people in Europe will be storming the Parliaments with pitchforks, for they have ordered that, on average, 70% of pension funds must hold “safe” government debt. A sovereign default wipes out private pensions.
I put out the ECM, and it forecasted a peak in May 2024, from which we would turn down into a recession that would not bottom until 2028. This is not my opinion so it cannot be my influence. Those against me claim I am too influential, and that is why the forecasts are correct. Otherwise, they have to admit everything from Politics to Keynesian Economics is wrong. It cannot be that they are wrong; it must be that I am the problem. Human Nature has a very dark side, and I’m tired of being their target practice.
I had a good conversation with Paul back in 1999. He told me I was correct. The business cycle was about 8 years. Even the previous Fed Chairman, Arthur Burns, who presided over the collapse of Bretton Woods, concluded that the Business Cycle always wins. They have done everything they can to shut me up. I even survived the orchestrated attempt to assassinate me. I woke up from that coma to their dismay, and sometimes I wish I had not.
The entire sales pitch behind socialism is that you need government because ONLY they can bring ORDER to the CHAOS of randomness. As I have said, in physics class, they stated that nothing is random, and in economics class, they claimed that everything is random, so the government can manipulate society to eliminate recessions and depressions. But if the ECM is correct, then the BS they espouse cannot be accurate.
Posted originally on Jun 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, you have shown that capital flows shift, and the computer has been able to predict wars by monitoring the entire world. The forecasts on Crude were unprecedented. I just had to remark how your computer handled this entire 12-day war and its cyclical forecast with your arrays. It is so apparent why so many want to know what Socrates is projecting. What you say that you stumbled on this unintentionally still deserves more than a Nobel Prize. While people sensationalize stories to get clicks, only Socrates handled this event correctly without fanfare.
Thank you for the education.
BB
REPLY: Yes, the Crude market did illustrate that the economics and markets were not matching the sensationalized reports. The May 5th turning point picked the low, then three Directional Changes created the sideways consolidation for three weeks. The Panic Cycle, the week of June 9th, targeted the breakout and the June 13th Israel attack of the three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow – and a number of top scientists involved in nuclear research and development to decapitate the government. It did not show a continued trend.
This is the opening to one chapter. I am trying to finish the book on the Economic Confidence Model and the Geometry of Time. There is a specific order hidden behind the veil of randomness, and our most significant problem in history is that we conduct analysis using the Classical Physics approach of linear analysis, which reduces everything to a single cause and effect. That prevents us from seeing that the world around us functions within a three-dimensional world, and TIME is not a single dimension. Therein lies our most significant error. Our inability to see what dictates the world of Quantum Physics, which unfolds before our eyes, also applies to the world of Classical Physics, causing us to believe in randomness and chaos rather than a hidden order.
Posted originally on Jun 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
There is no better predictor of future warfare than capital flows. We have witnessed capital fleeing danger time and time again, nearly always indicating a significant event was underway before the headlines could capture the moment. The internet is buzzing with a new tongue-in-cheek predictor of US warfare—the pizza index.
The pizza index or pizza meter theorizes that there is an uptick in pizza orders from Washington D.C., namely near the Pentagon, during major crises. America maintains it had no involvement in Israel’s attack on Iran. On June 12, social media users began reporting that the Pentagon pizza index was rising as there was a surge in deliveries surrounding the Pentagon and other defense buildings. At least four pizzerias reported a surge in orders one hour before the first strike.
With about an hour left before close, the 2nd closest Dominos to the Pentagon (about 8 min drive) is experiencing EXTREMELY high levels of traffic compared to a normal Thursday at about 11:00pm ET. pic.twitter.com/TnItUDysyq
— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) June 13, 2025
The Soviet Union was the first to develop this theory, which they called, Pizzint, during the Cold War. Soviet intelligence began tracking pizza orders near the Pentagon and CIA headquarters with intense scrutiny. The Soviets were known for thinking outside the box and developing unconventional strategies for warfare that were often dismissed by other nations. The Soviets believed that a sudden spike in deliveries indicated officials were working extended hours, and Americans’ love for pizza became their tell.
The phenomenon does carry some accuracy. Prior to the Gulf War in 1990, a Domino’s franchise owner by the name of Frank Meeks reported that he received a massive uptick in orders for pizza to the Pentagon and CIA headquarters. Other pizzerias noted a similar pattern, especially on the night that led to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. Nighttime pizza orders rose from 3 to 101 per night in the week leading up to hostilities. The night before the battle began, pizza orders to US intelligence offices surpassed 300.
The same phenomenon occurred numerous times, such as the night before US interventions in Grenada (1983) and Panama (1989). The meter proved accurate for other significant political events, such as the impeachment hearings for President Bill Clinton in 1998.
With less than an hour to close, the Domino's nearest the Pentagon is experiencing abnormally high traffic. pic.twitter.com/RZ5r5EJc1V
— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) June 2, 2025
Socrates noted that June 1 would lead to a significant global event. Sorry, we do not have pizza tracking in our algorithm. Interestingly, an X account called Pentagon Pizza Report noted that the Domino’s closest to the Pentagon was experiencing abnormally high traffic that day, which coincided with Ukraine’s massive attack on Russia.
Officials are required to work late, tethered to their desks. An uptick in pizza orders before important events is quite an interesting theory and there are now hundreds of social media accounts dedicated to tracking pizza deliveries in the D.C. area. Perhaps intelligence officials should begin ordering takeout elsewhere.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 