Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance
Joe Biden’s economic and energy policies have resulted in another record matching former President Jimmy Carter. The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced an inflation driven increase in SAA benefits of 8.7% beginning in January 2023. This is the largest cost of living adjustment in 40 years.
(Social Security Administration) – Approximately 70 million Americans will see a 8.7% increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2023. On average, Social Security benefits will increase by more than $140 per month starting in January.
Federal benefit rates increase when the cost-of-living rises, as measured by the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index (CPI-W). The CPI-W rises when inflation increases, leading to a higher cost-of-living. This change means prices for goods and services, on average, are higher. The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) helps to offset these costs.
We will mail COLA notices throughout the month of December to retirement, survivors, and disability beneficiaries, SSI recipients, and representative payees. But if you want to know your new benefit amount sooner, you can securely obtain your Social Security COLA notice online using the Message Center in your personal my Social Security account. You can access this information in early December, prior to receiving the mailed notice. Benefit amounts will not be available before December. Since you will receive the COLA notice online or in the mail, you don’t need to contact us to get your new benefit amount.
If you prefer to access your COLA notice online and not receive the mailed notice, you can log in to your personal my Social Security account to opt out by changing your Preferences in the Message Center. You can update your preferences to opt out of the mailed COLA notice, and any other notices that are available online. Did you know you can receive a text or email alert when there is a new message waiting for you? That way, you always know when we have something important for you – like your COLA notice. If you don’t have an account yet, you must create one by November 15, 2022 to receive the 2023 COLA notice online. (more)
A 25% increase in the rate for those who qualify for federal food stamp assistance….
An 8.7% increase in the rate for those who qualify for Social Security benefits….
Meanwhile real wages decreased 3.8% in September and the borders are wide open for cheap labor to pour in.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) today [DATA HERE]. The financial and business media call the continued rise of consumer inflation “unexpected,” however, the results are not a surprise to those who are not pretending.
This CNBC headline highlights the economic pretense still entrenched: “Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes.” Those who are not pretending fully understand the economic dynamic, but you will not find reality expressed by the mainstream media.
FED rate hikes can only impact the demand side of the inflation issue. U.S (and global) inflation is NOT the result of excess demand. It has not been driven by demand for over a year. The root cause of inflation is on the supply side. That root is grounded in the energy policy making everything entering the marketplace more expensive.
The historic rise in energy prices; the result of Joe Biden’s specific energy policy to limit oil, gas and coal as energy resources; are what have driven inflation throughout the economy. The monetary policy (Fed policy) continues to pretend this dynamic does not exist. The FED is trying to support the political policy, but the bloom is off the ruse.
Overall inflation increased 0.4% in September, leading to a result of 8.2% year over year. Food and energy prices continue driving inflation, additionally core inflation (everything except food and energy) continues to be driven by the originating issue of extreme energy costs.
Everything costs more because energy costs more. That is the reality of this inflation issue.
(CNBC) […] “The Federal Reserve has made it very clear they’re committed to price stability, they’re committed to reducing the inflationary pressures,” said Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute. “The more inflation comes in above expectations, the more they’re going to have to prove that commitment, which means higher interest rates and cooling in the underlying economy.”
Another large jump in food prices boosted the headline number. The food index rose 0.8% for the month, the same as August, and was up 11.2% from a year ago.
That increase helped offset a 2.1% decline in energy prices that included a 4.9% drop in gasoline. Energy prices have moved higher in October, with the price of regular gasoline at the pump nearly 20 cents higher than a month ago, according to AAA.
Closely watched shelter costs, which make up about one-third of CPI, rose 0.7% and are up 6.6% from a year ago. Transportation services also showed a big bump, increasing 1.9% on the month and 14.6% on an annual basis. Medical care services costs rose 1% in September.
The rising costs meant more bad news for workers, whose average hourly earnings declined 0.1% for the month on an inflation-adjusted basis and are off 3% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS release. Inflation is rising despite aggressive Federal Reserve efforts to get price increases under control. (more)
I feel like we are living in a parallel universe, where this grand game of pretense continues.
Every financial pundit knows the root cause of inflation is Joe Biden’s energy policy, yet they maintain the lies in order to protect the regime.
Raising interest rates in a supply side inflation economy only does one thing, it makes the economy contract faster. The only reason to intentionally shrink the economy is to try and reduce the demand for energy resources as part of the “transition to a green economy.” Together, the Biden administration and Federal Reserve are trying to lower economic output to meet a lowered amount of energy being produced. That is the reality of our situation.
They are destroying the working and middle class in order to chase their climate change agenda. These people must be removed from power.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the September wage report [DATA HERE] delivering worse economic news for workers.
Real wages are dropping at a historic rate as inflation continues to rise and as a result wages buy less.
[BLS] “Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2021 to September 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.8-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.” (link)
REAL WAGE CHART:
As the Biden economic/energy policy and Federal Reserve monetary policy merge together, the economy shrinks. As the economy shrinks, fewer goods and services are purchased. As less consumer goods are purchased, employment hours drop. As employment hours drop, wages decline.
Declining wages combined with increased inflation forms the perfect storm against middle-class and working-class families. This dynamic means lowered income and higher prices for essential goods and services like food, fuel, energy and housing. It’s not difficult to see why this is happening.
The declining wage rates, and the more substantive drop in real wage rates due to massive inflation, are specifically hitting the lower tier of the working class harder. Yet despite this, Biden is intent on importing even more economic migrants to put even more downward pressure on wages for the working class.
These are very real outcomes of policy. Working class Blacks and Latinos will feel this even more, yet this is the special interest group that Democrats claim to support. The reality is exactly opposite from the narrative sold by the Biden administration.
The Democrats know this. These outcomes are not accidental; they are a feature not a flaw in their policy. This is why they need to keep spending to retain the ruse.
There’s no way around this. Despite the pundit and financial class selling a counter-narrative, home prices will crash, and unemployment will go up. I know this is directly against the current talking points, but the statistical reality is clear.
CTH was the first place who said a year ago that home sales will plummet, that is starting to happen right now. There’s no way for it not to happen, the big picture tells us why.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 12, 2022 | Sundance
The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released September price data [Available Here] showing another 8.5% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level. However, that’s not the bad news in this data.
While the overall September PPI was higher than expected at 0.4%, the Final Demand Producer Price for food products in September was a whopping 1.2% (14.4% annualized).
The BLS notes the driver by saying, “a major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7-percent advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher.”
That’s a 15.7% increase in price, in one month, for fresh and dry vegetables. Annualized that’s a rate of price increase of 188.4% for vegetables. Remember the warning about farm costs (energy, fertilizer, fuel) driving field to fork inflation at harvest? This is the leading edge of that third wave of food price increases.
I have modified BLS Table-2 to focus specifically on food costs. The data is on left.
You will note that ‘row crops’ are the big drivers along with grain and seed products. This is exactly as we predicted it would be because those specific farming costs are the ones with greatest increase from energy, fuel, fertilizer, weed and insect control, and diesel costs.
All of those higher costs have been growing in the fields and will now surface at harvest. The higher farm costs transfer from the field to the fork via the food supply chain. This is only the leading edge of the price increase.
In October 2021 we first warned of the food price increases coming in distinct waves. The first was Jan, Feb and March 2022. The second wave was May through July 2022. This third wave will be bigger than the first two and starts arriving this month, October 2022.
People laughed at me when I said in late 2022 eggs were going to reach .50¢ EACH ($6/doz).
Well, in September the price of fresh eggs jumped 16.7% in a single month. That’s an annualized rate of price increase for eggs over 200%.
With hindsight you can clearly see the three waves of food price increases (BLS Table A):
Get ready and shop smart.
The October, November and December price increases in the grocery store are going to make the prior fresh food increases look small, as the full increased costs of farming operations starts to arrive at the supermarket. Unfortunately, this will coincide with a wave of gasoline price increases, and the prices of natural gas are already skyrocketing.
Wishing our friends in the north a happy Thanksgiving.
Canada’s Thanksgiving is not as widely celebrated as America’s November feast. However, outside Quebec, around 90% of Canadians plan to celebrate the holiday. Everything from fuel to food is more expensive this year. Statistics Canada reported a 10.8% rise in food prices this August, marking the fastest pace of food inflation since 1981.
The Agri-food Analytics Lab (AAL) and Angus Reid conducted a survey (sample size 1,244) to see how Canadians plan to celebrate the holiday this year. Turkey prices have risen 16% per kilogram this year. In British Columbia, 29% of respondents said that they would be making changes to the meals they typically prepare due to food prices, while 25% in Alberta and 20% in Manitoba said the same. Around 19% of those celebrating in Ontario will be changing the menu due to costs, followed by 17% in the Atlantic, 10% in Quebec, and 8% in Saskatchewan.
In addition to turkey prices increasing, potatoes have spiked by 22% this year. Bread and dairy prices have gone up 13%, while cranberries have increased by 12%. Prices vary based on location, but they’re up in every province. So many are grateful for the harvest, albeit less bountiful.
The Dallas Federal Reserve found that the decline in real wages is at a severity not seen in 25 years. Simply put, when adjusted for inflation, American’s paychecks are down despite wages going up. The median decline in real wages surpassed 8.5% this September.
"How severe are the losses for workers experiencing negative real wage growth? For the 53.4 percent of such workers in second quarter 2022, the median decline (that is, half of the declines were larger and half smaller) in real wage growth was 8.6 percent."
After examining real wages over the course of 12 months, the Dallas Fed found that 53.4% of all workers experienced real wage declines. Additional taxes under Biden have added to real wage decline as well. Peter C. Earle of the American Institute for Economic Research estimates that someone earning $70,000 annually now has $4,500 less in buying power in New York. “The bill for the Covid mitigation policies is due,” Earle said. “Record levels of fiscal and monetary policy expansion in the first half of 2020 are wrecking the purchasing power of the dollar. Thus even without a pay cut, wage earners are effectively earning less over time.”
The average median decline over the past 25 years has been 6.5% with real wage declines reaching between 5.7% to 6.8%. Inflation is simply too severe to compensate for any additional wages. The Fed continued to say:
"Despite the stronger wage growth due to the tightness of the labor market, a majority of workers are finding their wages falling even further behind inflation. For workers who experienced a decline in their real wage in second quarter 2022, the median decline was 8.6 percent.
While the past 25 years have witnessed episodes that show either a greater incidence or larger magnitude of real wage declines, the current time period is unparalleled in terms of the challenge employed workers face."
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 8, 2022 | Menagerie
Sorting through some old papers I had stashed away, today I came upon this story I had printed out from an email I received on October 11, 2004. The original source for the story is the book Keep A Quiet Heart by Elisabeth Elliot, published in 1995. It became attributed to Josh and Karen Zarandona when they passed it on in an email.
Supposedly, the original story came to Ms. Elliot from a Brenda Foltz, of Minnesota. I found the story just as thought provoking as I did in October of 2004. I really wish that I were writing this story as an illustration of a moment and a revelation that changed my life. Unfortunately, having a penchant for truth, I’ll confess that did not happen. I wish it had.
Sometimes I need to be reminded – over and over – of the lessons I need to learn in life. I share this with you in that spirit. I suppose most of you may have seen this in the past, but perhaps a few of you, like me, could enjoy it again.
The Ant and the Contact Lens
Brenda was a young woman who was invited to go rock climbing. Although she was scared to death, she went with her group to a tremendous granite cliff. In spite of her fear, she put on the gear, took hold of the rope, and started up the face of that rock. Well, she got to a ledge where she could take a breather. As she was hanging on there, the safety rope snapped against Brenda’s eye and knocked out her contact lens. Well, here she is on a rock ledge, with hundreds of feet below her and hundreds of feet above her. Of course, she looked and looked and looked, hoping it had landed on the ledge, but it just wasn’t there.
Here she was, far from home, her sight now blurry. She was desperate and began to get upset, so she prayed to the Lord to help her to find it. When she got to the top, a friend examined her eye and her clothing for the lens, but there was no contact lens to be found. She sat down, despondent, with the rest of the party, waiting for the rest of them to make it up the face of the cliff. She looked out across range after range of mountains, thinking of that Bible verse that says, “The eyes of the Lord run to and fro throughout the whole earth.” She thought, “Lord, You can see all these mountains. You know every stone and leaf, and You know exactly where my contact lens is. Please help me.”
Finally, they walked down the trail to the bottom. At the bottom there was a new party of climbers just starting up the face of the cliff. One of them shouted out, “Hey, you guys! Anybody lose a contact lens?” Well, that would be startling enough, but you know why the climber saw it? An ant was moving slowly across the face of the rock, carrying it. Brenda told me that her father is a cartoonist. When she told him the incredible story of the ant, the prayer, and the contact lens, he drew a picture of an ant lugging that contact lens with the words, “Lord, I don’t know why You want me to carry this thing. I can’t eat it, and it’s awfully heavy. But if this is what You want me to do, I’ll carry it for You.”
At the risk of being accused of being fatalistic, I think it would probably do some of us good to occasionally say, “God, I don’t know why you me to carry this load. I can see no good in it and it’s awfully heavy. But, if you want me to carry it, I will.” God doesn’t call the qualified, He qualifies the called.
This was originally published in the very early Treehouse days. It has been shared many times in many places. I thought now would be a good time to re-visit it.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 7, 2022 | stella
Sundance is okay, but in a place where it is difficult/impossible to post. He’s in contact by phone, barely, and suggested that we post something for you to read in the meantime.
This post is one of the first he wrote on this blog, in February of 2011, more than 11 years ago. How time flies! I have always loved it, and I hope that you do too.
WRITTEN BY SUNDANCE, FEBRUARY 1, 2011
I have long felt that life is like a series of links in a chain. You might be driving down the road and you hear a song on the radio, or see a picture, and you feel a memory,…. something that reminds you of a different time and place than where you are right now. You reflect. The memories you consider remind you of a totally different place in your life. Perhaps you lived in a different place. Perhaps you were surrounded by different people. Perhaps a different job or completely different friends. You recognize those memories were constructed like frozen moments in time. They become individual links in the chain in your life.
You never actually realize, in the immediate moment, when one link closes, and another link begins. But when you look back, you can clearly see distinct points where things changed, the link closed, and a new link began. The links are only clearly visible in reflection.
But there are parts of the chain where each link closes and connects with the other. A beginning, and an end. At the point where the links are joined we carry parts of the previous link forward to the next. For many people those connections are bonded by family, or very strong life long relationships. Connections which continue beyond our geographic moments, jobs, or temporary acquaintances. But for everyone, the primary bonding agent brought forward from one link to the next is ourselves, our center, our values and core principles. Our beliefs.
The strength of the steel which comprises the links of our life is determined by forging in the fire of adversity, weakness, challenge, pain, loss, and painful growth. The steel is then cooled with the tears of triumph, hurdles overcome, and resolve. The forging makes the steel stronger and able to withstand the pressures that accompany the additional length. Slowly the chain becomes wiser as it lengthens. Able to reach further, form more significant benefits, and become more useful. Hope replaces fear. Love replaces loneliness. Success replaces adversity. These are successful links began and finished while contributing to the whole.
At times we may manipulate the links with avoidance. We hide from or choose to avoid an issue in our effort to begin a new link before the old one was naturally, and spiritually, prepared to be closed. Eventually as life continues, and the chain lengthens, the weak link can fracture and we are forced to revisit/repair what we originally chose to avoid. You see, in life we cannot control the universal laws that guide us. So if we manipulate circumstances to avoid confronting our own weakness, we cannot fully strengthen our life of links. Eventually, the weakness of our past will impact our future.
So what principles do we carry from link to link? What core values and beliefs stay with us throughout the journey of our lives? The answers to these questions are what makes us human spiritual beings. We possess freewill able to make choices about what we do, and how we define our individual humanity. But can we then define ’right’ and ‘wrong’ according to our individual principles? Or are there principles that exceed our influence and definition? Are there natural laws of right and wrong, good and bad, that cannot be subjected to the determination of man? These are the bigger questions, perhaps the more important questions, and yet perhaps the ones we reflect upon the least.
Consider the example of the ‘Law of the farm’ vs. the ‘Law of the School’. Natural principles vs. those made by man. A student can skip class, take few notes, pay only half attention, then stay up all night cramming for a test and manage a decent grade. It depends on the students goal, grades or learning. The student chose to manipulate the education, by avoiding the learning and capturing the grade. This is possible in the ‘Law of the School’. However, a farmer cannot take short cuts. A farmer cannot avoid tending to the soil, preparing the seed, fertilizing and nurturing the crop, and still gain benefit of an abundant harvest. The farmer must necessarily do all of the appropriate work in order to benefit from it. Such is the ‘Law of the Farm’, the natural law.
When one considers the weakness remaining within a poorly constructed, and manipulated link, perhaps established by selfish choices and driven by avoidance and fear, one can be faithfully be assured those who have dealt dishonestly with us will have to visit the issues of their association again. No amount of manipulation or avoidance is going to improve the frailty of any link without first resolving the lack of character which created the weakness.
So we have choices in our lives. Decisions we each make regarding how we interact, and participate in the lives and links of others; As well as how we choose to construct the links that compromise our own lives. Do we base our sense of purpose around natural principles? Principles based on natural laws of right and wrong, good and bad, truth and lies. Do we forge strong links based on following our heart, our values? If we can interact with others absent of a prideful self driven agenda, or manipulative intent, we can then apply such principles and strength to our endeavors.
If we protect the integrity of the soil upon which we build the foundation of our lives, we can live without regret. If we fertilize and cherish our crop, and the crop of our neighbor with honesty and sincere appreciation for the souls we meet along our chosen path, we will live a life of abundance. If we tend carefully to the consideration of everyone, yet holding true to our values and principles, we can strengthen ourselves amid the face of adversity and disenchantment. If we do not hide from, nor ignore, our individual and collective faults, we can build the chain of our life with strength, humility, and purpose.
I wish for each of you a long chain of bold, strong, beautiful links, polished with the reflective brilliance of Love……..
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Nobody knows history better than you. Will QE continue if we end up in war? It seems there would be no choice.
Thank you for your very enlightening blog.
PG
ANSWER: Yes. The Fed was “directed” by the White House to carry out QE during World War II. They were to prevent interest rates from rising and the debt rose. That finally led to the Federal Reserve breaking with the White House after the war when they expected it to continue for the Korean War. That is when the Fed asserted its independence.
This time, we may have a different problem. As the war unfolds in Europe, the capital will flee as usual to the States. But the money supply will have to increase because the dollar will become the only viable currency still standing. That is why you are witnessing the pound and the euro collapse. Things will unfold differently this time. The Fed has been raising rates to fight inflation that will fail because this has to do with shortages – not speculation.
The October 3, 2022 Emergency Meeting was closed to public observation by Order of the Board of Governors because the matters fell under exemption(s) 9(A)(i) of the Government in the Sunshine Act (5 U.S.C. Section 552b(c)), and it was determined that the public interest did not require opening the meeting. That said, the Fed is faced with a triple crisis – liquidity, banking stability, and an inevitable Sovereign Debt Crisis. As interest rates have risen based on domestic inflation rates, simultaneously, the higher rates have undermined both European banks as well as Emerging Markets. The Federal Reserve has become the DEFACTO central bank of the world.
This is a crisis similar in part to 1927 when the European central banks lobbied the Fed to lower rates because of their debt crisis. They lowered rates to accommodate Europe and that was then blamed on the Fed for creating the 1929 boom. This is also why FDR then seized control of the Federal Reserve and move the head to Washington and made the Chairman subservient to the President.
I know so many blame the Fed for everything. They are actually facilitating Congress. The Fed has no control over fiscal spending or the debt level. In the end, it is really the debt that has become the money supply that simply pays interest.
There was no US paper money before the Civil War. The first issues of paper money were actually a hybrid bond – they paid interest. The term “greenback” developed for “demand notes” that came later as the cost of the war rose. They no longer paid interest so what was on the back was just green ink – no interest rate table to show what the note was worth.
I will be doing a full report on this subject for the WEC. It is complex, yet exceptionally interesting for what we face.
QUESTION #1: I live in the US. When the sovereign debt explodes, and I will “own nothing “, does that mean that any car, house or property that has a loan on it will become the property of the bank and or government? Does it mean property that is paid off and I hold the title or deed will be taken from me and I will have to pay “rent” to hold on to it? Please answer by my email or on one of your blogs.
Thanks for all you do.
MH
QUESTION #2: Would you ever consider running for politics? Your experience towers over everyone out there.
BB
ANSWER: No, I am not interested in getting into politics. I have always preferred to be standing behind the curtain. If I ever stepped in front, they would quickly figure out a way I could commit suicide with a remote rifle 100 yards away and you can bet the media will say absolutely!
Now insofar as the sovereign debt default, we are looking at governments collapsing which will take down banks that must retain reserves in government bonds. Klaud Schwab is an academic. He has ZERO real-world experience. His ideas will collapse just like Marx for the one element both ignore is human nature. It cost over 200 million lives for Marx to get his theory in place. Communism collapsed because without curiosity and freedom to explore, talk, and think, all advancement of society comes to an end.
Schwab’s idea will fail because the setup is different this time. Marxism succeeded because in Russia serfdom ended only during the 1860s. Therefore, the common people DID NOT own anything and it made sense to raid the rich. This time, people own houses and cars, and they save with pensions and to help their children. This time the common people would have to surrender all their assets so Schwab’s Marxist theories can be implemented.
It is a whole different board game this time around. Our computer has NEVER been beaten by anyone, even me. It sees the future because it is monitoring everything. So while people argue over what they “think” will happen, Socrates just plugs away and lacks that human emotion that interferes with objectivity.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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