Tag Archives: Executive Action Agenda

Apr 17 2022

Rule One, Economic Security Is National Security


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 16, 2022 | Sundance

…Rule two, there is no bigger rule than the first rule.

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.”

~ Niccolo Machiavelli

Never has that Machiavelli quote been more apropos than when considering the MAGA movement and the rise of Donald Trump.

Thankfully, we are now in an era when the largest coalition of American voters have awakened to the reality that, to quote the former president: “Economic Security is National Security.”

As we live through the economic mess of a Biden administration hell bent on eroding the middle class of the United States, there are numerous pundits contemplating 2024 Republican presidential candidates other than Donald Trump; consider this group the lukewarm defenders Machiavelli noted.

At the same time the leftist coalition, writ large, are apoplectic about the base of the Republican Party now belonging to Donald Trump.  This group consists of those affluent Wall Street agents and politicians set on retaining the profits derived from decades of institutional objectives.

Institutional Democrats hate Trump, and institutional Republicans are lukewarm, at best, in defending Trump.  Both wings of the DC UniParty fear Trump.  Extreme efforts at control are a reaction to fear.  In this outline, I rise to explain why Donald Trump is the only option for the America First MAGA coalition; and I make my case not on supposition, but on empirical reference points that most should understand.

Everything, is about the economics of it.

If you accept that at its essential core elements the phrase “economic security is national security” is true – meaning the lives of the American citizen, person, worker, individual or family are best when their economic position is secure – then any potential leader for our nation must be able to initiate policies that directly touch the economics of a person’s life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  As a result, economic security and economic policy must be the fulcrum of their platform.

Now, look around and ask yourself this question: “What separated Donald J. Trump from the remaining field of 17 GOP candidates in 2016?”   An honest top-line answer would be immigration (border control), and his views on American economic policy.   In essence, what set Donald Trump apart from all other candidates was his view on the U.S. economy, and that was the driving factor behind ‘Make America Great Again’, MAGA.

Now, look around.  Look at every other potential candidate for political office. Is there another person in the field of your political view who comes from the starting point that economic security is national security?

Put aside all other issues and shiny things that may change from moment to moment as the political winds swirl and settle, and ask yourself that question.  Who can deliver MAGA, if not the central person who lives, eats, sleeps and thinks about U.S. economic security from every angle at every second of every hour of every day.  That’s Donald J. Trump.

Trump knows the extremely consequential sequence of BIG things that lead to a structurally strong American economic foundation.

We don’t have to guess at whether Trump can deliver on that policy sequence, we have reference points.

♦ Donald Trump knew that independent U.S. energy policy was a condition for a strong U.S. economy. He also knew there would be negative consequences to allies and partners if the U.S. energy policy was independent.  Trump knew that OPEC nations in general would be negatively impacted, and he knew that Saudi Arabia specifically would be weakened geopolitically.   That is why the very first foreign trip by Donald Trump was to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States that make up the majority of OPEC.

Look at what President Trump did on that trip.  First, he assured Saudi Arabia that the United States would stand with the Gulf Cooperation Council and Mid-East nations as it pertained to their security.  Trump knew making the largest energy consuming nation independent from foreign oil would be adverse to the economic stability of the Mid-East, and as an outcome, could open a door to destabilization from extremist or ideological groups therein.

Take away top-line economic revenue from Saudi et al, and the leaders of those oil economies have a more difficult time remaining stable and controlling unrest and extremism.  Generations of Arab citizens know nothing other than the trickle down benefits of oil exports.  President Trump knew this, and he approached our need for energy independence by first assuring the Arab states of his commitment to their stability and safety.

President Trump delivered to those states a list of approved arms and defense agreements during that trip.  In essence, what he was doing was putting the promise of security into actual delivery of tools to retain that security.  Actions speak louder than words.  President Trump also promised to work diligently on peace in the region; a real substantive and genuine peace that would provide security in the big picture.

Over the course of the next few years, Trump delivered on that set of promises with the Abraham Accords.   Yes, economic security as national security applies to our allies as well as ourselves.  Again, actions speak louder than words.

With the U.S. energy independence program in place, President Trump then moved in sequence to the next big thing.

♦ Donald Trump moved to face the challenge of China.   A major shift in U.S. policy that is likely considered the biggest geopolitical shift in the last 75 years.  Trump strategically began with Trade Authority 302 national security Steel and Aluminum tariffs at 25% and 10% not only toward China but targeted globally.

The entire multinational system was stunned at the bold step with tariffs.   But remember, before Trump went to Saudi Arabia, he held a meeting with Chairman Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago.  The global trade world was shocked by the tariff announcement, but I’ll bet you a doughnut Chairman Xi was not.

That February 2017 meeting, only one month after his inauguration, was President Trump graciously informing Chairman Xi, in the polite manner that respectful business people do, that a new era in the U.S-China relationship was about to begin.  New trade agreements, new terms and conditions were to be expected in the future.  The tariff announcement hit Wall Street hard, but not Beijing – who knew it was likely.

U.S. financial pundits proclaimed the sky was surely falling.  These tariffs would cause prices to skyrocket, the global order of all things around trade was under attack by Trump.  They waxed and shouted about supply chains being complicated and intertwined amid the modern manufacturing era that was too complex for President Trump to understand with such a heavy handed tariff hammer.   Remember all of that?  Remember how cars were going to cost thousands more, and beer kegs would forever be lost because the orange man had just triggered steel and aluminum tariffs?

Did any of that happen?  No. Of course it didn’t. Actually, the opposite was true and no one could even fathom it.  Communist China first responded by subsidizing all of their industries targeted by the tariffs with free energy and raw materials, etc.  China triggered an immediate reaction to lower their own prices to offset tariffs.  Beijing did not want the heavy industries and factories to start back up again in the U.S, so they reacted with measures to negate the tariff impact.

China’s economy started to feel the pressure and panda was not happy.  Eventually, as the tariffs expanded beyond Steel and Aluminum to other specific segments and categories, China devalued their currency to lower costs even further for U.S. importers.  The net result was something no one could have imagined.  With lower prices, and increased dollar strength, we began importing all Chinese products at cheaper rates than before the tariffs were triggered.  Yes, we began importing deflation.  No one saw that coming…. but Trump did.

While all that initial U.S-China trade shock was taking place, Donald Trump took his next foreign trip to… wait for it…. Southeast Asia.

Just like in the example of the trip to Saudi Arabia, economically-minded Trump told partners and leaders in the export producing countries of Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and ASEAN nations to prepare for additional business and new trade agreements with the U.S., as factories inside China might start to decouple.   Look at how they responded, they did exactly what Trump said would be in their best interests.

To seriously gather the focus of this SE Asia group, President Trump started direct talks with North Korea and Chairman Kim Jong-un for peace and regional stability.  It’s easy to forget just how stunning this was at the time, but generations of people in Asia were jaw-agape at the U.S. President confronting China, engaging with North Korea, and opening his arms to new trade deals with ASEAN partners.

On the world stage of geopolitics and global trade, any one of these moves would be a monumental legacy initiative all by itself.  But together, simultaneously, you can see how the entire continent physically stopped midstride and stood staring at this, this man, this American President, who was just about to step across the Demilitarized Zone in North Korea and shake hands with Chairman Kim…. and, wait for it…. they are smiling.

√ Energy security triggered and friends in Mid-East supported.

√ Mid-East peace initiatives triggered.

√ A return of heavy industry and manufacturing security triggered.

√ A confrontation of Chinese economic influence triggered.

√ Stability between South Korea and North Korea, triggered.

√ New trade deals and economic partnerships with Japan and South Korea, triggered.

And then, as if that was not enough… just as multinational investment groups started realizing they needed to change their outlooks and drop the decades long view of the U.S. as a “service driven economy”… just as they realized they needed to start investing domestically inside the United States for their own growth and financial security… as if all that wasn’t enough… President Trump kicks off an entirely new trade deal and renegotiated standard for all North American trade via NAFTA.

We don’t have to guess at whether Donald Trump can put together a program to ensure Economic Security is National Security.  We don’t have to guess at whether Donald Trump can deliver on economic policy.  We don’t have guess if Trump’s policy platform, proposals and initiatives would be successful.  We have the experience of it.  We have the results of it.  We have felt the success of it.

We also don’t need to guess at who is the best candidate to lead Making America Great Again, we already know who that is.

There is no other 2024 Presidential Candidate, who I am aware of, who could possibly achieve what Donald John Trump has achieved, or who could even fathom contemplating how to achieve a quarter of what President Trump achieved.

Do not tell me Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a better option. DeSantis is an unknown commodity, a blank slate, when it comes to big picture economic outlooks. DeSantis doesn’t have an economic agenda inside his administration from which to contemplate or analyze his economic views.

Governor Ron DeSantis has a lot of really good skills and policies on the domestic front unique to his position in Florida; however, it is not a slight toward him to point out he has never expressed any larger economic proposal that would give any confidence in a national economic policy.

Look at the sum total of it, and there’s so much more that could be outlined to what Donald Trump achieved and could yet still achieve, it’s not even a close question.

And that my friends is exactly why Donald Trump is under relentless attack from both wings of the UniParty in DC.  Additionally, it is clear the Wall Street Republicans are trying to position Ron DeSantis as an alternative to another Trump term.  Look carefully at the current advocates for DeSantis, Nikki Haley and/or Kristi Noem, and you will note every one of those early voices are attached to favorable Wall Street politics and multinational corporate advocacy.

Look at what Donald J. Trump was able to achieve while he was under constant political attack.  Just imagine what Trump 2.0 would deliver.

They, the leftist Democrats and Wall Street Republicans, are yet again absolutely petrified of that.

Apr 17 2022

The Possibility of a Win for Marine Le Pen in France Has EU Worried


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 16, 2022 

One week from tomorrow the presidential election in France will be decided.  Polls put the race between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in a statistical dead heat, and combined with the recent Hungary election outcome – that has many bureaucrats in the EU very twitchy.

No doubt this race would have major ramifications if Marine Le Pen could end up victorious.  Factually, the Western alliance military operation in Ukraine could fundamentally change.  A post-COVID shift toward increased nationalism in France and the European Union would be very problematic for the forward plans of the professional political class and corporate globalists.

ASSOCIATED PRESS – […] If Macron falters in France’s April 24 presidential runoff between the two, the far-right could be at the helm of the European Union, an abhorrent idea to most leaders in the bloc.

Experts say a win for Le Pen would have immense repercussions on the functioning of the EU. Not only would her coming to power damage the democratic values and commercial rules of the bloc, but it would also threaten the EU’s common front and sanctions in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

[…] France has always stood at the heart of the EU — a founding member that has partnered with neighbor and historical rival Germany to turn the bloc into an economic giant and an icon of Western values. … [Le Pen] has proposed removing taxes on hundreds of goods and wants to reduce taxes on fuel — which would go against the EU’s free market rules and efforts to fight climate change.

[…]  Jean-Claude Piris, who served as a legal counsel to the European Council, said a victory for Le Pen would have the effect of an “earthquake.”

“She is in favor of a form of economic patriotism with state aids, which is contrary to the rules of the single market,” Piris told The Associated Press.

“She wants to modify the French constitution by giving preference to the French, by suppressing the right of the soil, the right of asylum,” which would be “totally incompatible with the values of the European treaties,” Piris added. (read more)

There isn’t a ‘splodey head detonation meter big enough to record the sound of the EU eruption if Marine Le Pen stands victorious next Sunday.

Vive le France!

Apr 16 2022

Musk’s Battle to Save America From Absolute Tyranny


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Elon Musk’s battle to take over Twitter and restore free speech is a battle to save the very foundation of what a real free society was supposed to be. Every person on the board of Twitter is doing their part in trying to destroy the United States and hand our dignity and sovereignty to the United Nations precisely as the World Economic Forum openly states in their goal.

The hate that these people are pushing to destroy the very foundation of freedom is just unbelievable. They cheer Bill Gates for becoming the largest farm landholder and Jeff Bezos for taking over the Washington Post and pushing as far left as possible. These evil manipulators think they can bullshit the people all the time and they are doing their best to brainwash everyone they can. The launch of CNN+ gets less than 10,000 viewers which is less than even our sites.

These people cheer Twitter for taking a Poison Pill to prevent free speech so they can try to force their distorted view of freedom upon the entire population. These are the same people who kiss the ground that George Soros walks on holding hands with Klaus Schwab – people who cannot die without destroying the very world that gave them wealth and stature. George Soros has come out and said  “America is the gravest threat to world freedom.” Thus Soros send money to DEFUND POLICE in order to create civil unrest.

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I wish I could buy millions of shares of Twitter and join Elon Musk. Unfortunately, because of SEC regulations, I cannot own any shares without disclosing every share I own since we advised around the world. Otherwise, I would join Musk for this is now a battle for the very heart of America. These people need to be sent a message to stop trying to destroy America by following their fearless leader – Klaus Schwab. I will NOT allow any company that is partners with Schwab or his World Economic Forum to access Socrates or any advice whatsoever.

All I can hope is that real patriots will come and support Musk in his take over of Twitter.

Apr 16 2022

Elon Musk for President? Evil Lurking Inside Twitter


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Twitter retested the low on your ECM date and the whole rally began from that target. Did Socrates predict what Musk was going to do? And btw, would you support Elon Musk for President? Have you ever met Musk? He is into AI as well.

DH

ANSWER: Well the answer would be yes, but you have to know only a “natural born citizen” can be president. His mother was Canadian but her father was an American-born Canadian. So I do not this that would qualify him to be president or VP. This is expressly stated in the Constitution so that would require a Constitutional Amendment to change it. There is no other requirement of this nature imposed to be appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court or to either chamber of Congress. Article II, Section 1 states:

“No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.”

Therefore, Musk could be in the President’s cabinet or he can run for the Senate or Congress, but I would not recommend that. He would be one voice among many and that would not produce change. Hence, Trump won for he was NOT a politician. This is why some people are now talking about Elon Musk being a better choice. I understand that but it is not practical under the Constitution.

No, I have never met Musk. I would like to, but that opportunity has not presented itself. I suppose he would find Socrates fascinating, but Socrates doesn’t drive a car – he just monitors the world economy. As to whether or not Socrates predicted Musk’s takeover, probably but it did not say who.

Musk responded to Twitter thinking about a “poison pill” move suggesting that it would expose Twitter’s board to “titanic” legal liability. Anyone who is supporting Twitter is anti-Free Speech and is clearly more interested in destroying our civilization and everything that made America once upon a time great. Now it is the leftists trying to tear down everything.

Bret Taylor is the chairman of Twitter but he is also the co-CEO of Salesforce which is a partner with none other than Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum. This is why they have banned Trump. This is all political and it is intended to ultimately overthrow the United States. They state that clearly in their Agenda 2030.

Salesforce is toying with forcing the Great Reset upon everyone. Personally, I would never do business with Salesforce.

Socrates projected in 1985 that a potential third-party/non-politician would win in 2016 (31.4 years into this wave) predicted Trump would win but it did not predict it would be Trump 31.4 years before. It did project the rise in authoritarianism, civil unrest, disease, and the commodity boom based upon shortages. There is just a time and place for everything.

Apr 16 2022

Twitter Responds to Elon Musk Proposal by Creating Poison Pill


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 15, 2022 | Sundance

The social media and communication platform Twitter, responded to the bid by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk by announcing Friday the Twitter board of directors has unanimously adopted a “poison pill” defense in response to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s proposal to buy the company and take it private. [LINK to Press Release]

Twitter said the move, formally called a “limited duration shareholder rights plan,” aims to enable its investors to “realize the full value of their investment” by reducing the likelihood that any one person can gain control of the company without either paying shareholders a premium or giving the board more time. Poison pills are often used to defend against hostile takeovers.

According to Twitter’s plan, if Musk or any other person or group acquires at least 15 percent of Twitter’s stock, the poison pill will trigger.

At that point, every other shareholder, aside from Musk, would be allowed to purchase new shares of Twitter at half the going market price, which stood at $45.08 at the closing bell on Thursday.

The flood of half-price shares would effectively dilute Musk’s ownership stake, making it massively more expensive for him to build up a controlling position.  Twitter said its board had voted unanimously in favor of the plan, which will remain in effect until April 14, 2023.

Obviously, the people in control of Twitter really do not want to lose control over the platform.  Elon Musk’s offer to purchase Twitter at $54.20 per share, represents a value of 38% more than his first shares purchased.  The public shareholders would make a sizeable return on their investment. However, the fiduciary responsibility of a board of directors to its shareholders is really not what this is about.

In the big picture, Twitter is a bottomless pit of financial cost.   Once you understand the technology behind Twitter, it is easy to understand why the public speech platform is not a viable business model, and it never was.

Twitter is exclusively a ‘user engagement‘ social media platform with no hosted content.  Twitter is massively expensive to operate because the costs of operating the technology, all of which are driven by the substantive issue of ‘simultaneous users‘, exceeds the capacity of the platform to generate revenue.

Almost all other internet websites and social media have two structures: (A) Content, and (B) User Engagement.

Content represents a small part of any internet hosting expense for a platform and represents almost 100% of the platform’s ability to generate money.  User engagement on the other hand, costs massive amounts of money – due to the need for data processing to handle the engagement and simultaneous users – and provides almost no revenue.

Many news and information content providers do not even host a user engagement commenting system any longer.  User engagement is just too expensive and requires monitoring, moderation and massive amounts of data processing space on the platform servers.

Twitter’s operating model only consists of ‘user engagement.’

The platform itself is a massive global commenting system – the ‘public square’ discussion.

♦CONTENT is the material that can be monetized easily.  Content is the article, graphic, podcast, or video you would see and watch.  Content is profitable based on advertising.   Eyeballs on content means eyeballs on internet advertising.  This is how websites and content providers are able to pay for expenses and operate as a business model for the continuation of content.  Hosting costs for content, even on a massive scale of viewership/readership are low, and the income from advertising increases with more readers and viewers.  This is the traditional business model of content providers.

♦USER ENGAGEMENT is the part that is not as easily monetized, and user engagement drives a higher cost.  User engagement is the comments, likes, dislikes and discussion that takes place based on the users who view the content material and discuss.  More user engagement, particularly more simultaneous users, costs more money for the platform, because the random capability of the audience to interact with the server network creates exponentially more data processing demand.  Data processing, not capacity, drives the cost.

Server capacity is a relatively easy issue to solve for content providers.  In order to see the content, the host needs to ensure they have enough capacity for the audience to arrive and view, read, or watch the content without overwhelming the server network.  Server processing speed and data performance are a part of the construct to ensure everything is smooth.

Server capacity is not the challenge for ‘user engagement.’  Processing trillions of simultaneous user-activated functions is the tech challenge for ‘user engagement.’  It’s not the capacity, it’s the data processing.  As a result, it is far more expensive to operate social media than it is to operate a simple website construct, because user engagement is the entire premise behind social media.

Facebook and Instagram have a more viable business model because users provide the content they host.  Content can be monetized, and in the case of Facebook, Google, Instagram and YouTube they can also monetize the user that provides it.  Twitter does not host content at all.

Facebook makes money by selling advertising like a traditional website.  Facebook and Google have also specialized in the micro-targeting of advertising to very specific tailored advertising audiences.   Advertising agencies pay a premium for the micro-targeting of a specific audience.

Facebook also makes money by selling data on users.  You may remember the reference of Cambridge Analytica purchasing micro-targeting user information from Facebook for use in elections and voter targeting efforts.  More recently, Facebook has cut out the middlemen and started micro-targeting for politics and getting paid directly by political campaigns for their efforts.

In almost all social media, the user is providing the content that the platform can monetize.   In the Facebook example above, the platform can offset the extreme increases in user engagement costs (data processing) by making money from the hosted content, and from selling the data of the user (there are many purchasers).

However, for Twitter the business model problem is: (a) the absence of content to monetize, and (b) the extreme costs of user engagement that dwarf the “simultaneous user” data processing costs for Facebook.

As Facebook grows, they can grow their revenue.   As Twitter grows, it increases their expenses massively and only moderately increases their revenue.

Twitter is not making a decision to decline the generous offer by Elon Musk because of stewardship or fiduciary responsibility to shareholders.  The financials of Twitter as a non-viable business model highlight the issue of money being irrelevant.  Twitter does not and cannot make money.  Growing Twitter only means growing an expense. Growing Twitter does not grow revenue enough to offset the increase in expense.

There is only one way for Twitter to exist as a viable entity, people are now starting to realize this.

What matters to the people behind Twitter, the people who are subsidizing the ability of Twitter to exist, is control over the global conversation.

Control of the conversation is priceless to the people who provide the backbone for Twitter.

Once people realize who is subsidizing Twitter, everything changes.

That’s the fight.

.

Apr 15 2022

True danger is a nation of citizens who blindly parrot govt propaganda


By Tulsi Gabbard  Published originally on April 14, 2022 

It is not the government’s job to shield us from information—no matter how “dangerous” they claim it to be. The true danger is a nation of citizens who blindly follow and parrot government propaganda instead of looking for and courageously expressing the truth.

Apr 15 2022

Marco Rubio Preparing to Join Biden in Destroying the World Economy


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The world has gone completely nuts and now even Republican Marco Rubio is drafting legislation to sanction China. Biden’s sanctions have totally destroyed the world economy, bringing globalization and world peace to an abrupt end. I have written to Marco Rubio in response to his Tweet, but I seriously doubt he will ever respond.

“I realize that the chances of this ever being answered are minus zero. I will nonetheless publish this on ArmsatronEconomics.COM. I have advised nations and I have testified before the House Ways & Means Committee. These sanctions on Russia have already destroyed the world economy ending the integrity of the SWIFT system. Sanctions have NEVER worked even one time in history and every president before Biden sought world peace where now all we see is world war III. All of this nonsense has only ensured the end of the United States as the leader of the world economy. Even SWIFT told Obama no way in 2014 would they remove Russia from the system. Now SWIFT has committed suicide and Biden has divided the world economy. This will never return to normal and your proposal to sanction China is insane. In fact, the arrogance of the United States as the policeman of the world has only led to our inevitable demise. SWIFT is no longer the foundation of the world economy and this is ending the economic status of the dollar and the United States. No nation lasts forever and just as the arrogance of Athens led to the Peloponnesian War; we too have become far too arrogant sealing our own fate out of stupidity. Sanction China and you guarantee their alternative to SWIFT and once you terminate the goodwill, then without trade, they no longer have the incentive to participate in the world economy and thus it is no longer a threat to bit the hand that feeds you.”

The European Union’s relations with China have also plunged to unprecedented new lows. The US has also floated these theories with allies in Europe to sanction China, with absolutely ZERO understanding of how the world economy even functions. World peace is established not by threats and a show or nuclear weapons. It is free trade that bound the Roman Empire together where conquered lands found it beneficial economically to be part of the Empire than on the outside, chucking spears across the border. By removing Russia from SWIFT and now threatening China with sanctions, if they dare to allow Russia to use their alternative, all I can say is the United States is doomed. Biden called Putin a war criminal, yet under this theory, President Johnson was a war criminal for the abuse of soldiers in Vietnam. There are allegations of war crimes against Americans from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria for starters. So is Obama also a war criminal? These sorts of allegations GUARANTEE there will be no peace — EVER!

Marco Rubio mentioned that he is mulling legislation to sanction China if it helps Moscow circumvent SWIFT sanctions. Once the trade is severed, there is no incentive to work together. The only thing that then resolves such disputes is war. We are watching India among many nations viewing the arrogance of America as a deterrent and pushing them into the arms of the alternative economy that is forming.

The US has been funding the Ukrainian Civil War because the Neocon hates Russians. They are now poking China and have the audacity to think threatening China with the same sanctions will cause them to fall to their knees and beg for forgiveness. This thinking is absolute lunacy. The American people are TIRED of endless wars. The US has been sending National Guard troops overseas. Reservists and National Guards are being sent overseas because we do not have the troops necessary. These are people who have families — not 18 years boys sent to die. These are also National Guard troops, who are NOT defending the nation, but other people.

Looking closely at the National Guard’s website informs us that it has not one but two missions. The “state mission,” which you remember from your service, is to “provide trained and disciplined forces for domestic emergencies or as otherwise required by law.” There is also a “federal mission” to “maintain properly trained and equipped units available for prompt mobilization for war, national emergency, or as otherwise needed.” We have had National Guard troops overseas in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere being called in on the basis of this federal mission yet it is questionable if that is legal without a declaration of war.

We need to be mindful that our politicians are quick to send people to die with no regard for their families left behind. There seems to be no serious thought about what is taking place, and it is all playing to the sound-bites.

Apr 15 2022

Smart Investor Article (English Translation Provided)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I recently appeared on the cover of “Smart Investor” after being approached by journalist Ralph Malisch. Click here to read the full interview (German).

The English translation is available below:

Smart Investor talks to legendary cycle analyst Martin Armstrong about Corona, war and reshaping the world

Smart Investor: Mr. Armstrong, in 2015, The Forecaster, a powerful film about your life, was released. We interviewed you extensively in Smart Investor 5/2015. How have you been doing in the meantime and what are your current projects?
Armstrong:  I was involved in a sequel to the film that will be out later this year. Otherwise, we have expanded our services and have now launched our computer system, which is the system that the government wanted for itself. It now produces over 1,000 written reports every day all over the world without human intervention. We now use it in over 40 countries, which means we probably have the largest institutional customer base in the world.

Smart Investor 5/2015

Smart Investor: Would you briefly explain your forecasting approach to our readers again?
Armstrong:  In the 1980s and 1990s, I was one of the top international hedge fund managers, even being named hedge fund manager of the year for predicting the collapse of Russia, which triggered the 1998 hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management crisis. During that time, I’d watched global investment capital refocus on markets and then move on—leaving Japan in 1989, Southeast Asia in 1994, and Russia in 1998, followed by the euro. All of this was fueled by capital flows. One can follow these movements of capital and see how they cause the boom-bust cycles around the globe.

Smart Investor: The topic of Corona has kept us under its spell for more than two years. Was this turning point, or a drastic event like this, visible in your cycle model?
Armstrong: Yes, I warned at our own World Economic Conference that if our model flipped in January 2020 (= year 2020.05) the market would crash. We were even able to pinpoint the exact day for the March 2020 bottom. Had an event like Corona happened during an uptrend, it would have been largely ignored. But if something like this happens while the model is turning down, then sentiment is inherently bearish. We also warned that there would be a scarcity-based commodity cycle from January 2020 to 2024.

Smart Investor: In our perception, major pandemics occur with a certain regularity. Have you thought about some kind of plague cycle and how it might continue?
Armstrong: Such epidemics have always existed – but never in history have governments reacted so madly. The global lockdown has cost jobs and created bottlenecks in supply chains that will persist for several years to come. It was an absurd response that was proven wrong and caused a lot more damage. Most people know someone who got sick from COVID but didn’t die from it. Those who died would likely have died from any form of respiratory disease, such as occurs during the annual cycle of influenza. It was not a dangerous plague that killed 30% to 50% of the population like smallpox or the black plague in the 14th century.

Smart Investor: Now a new dominant event has been triggered with the hot war in Ukraine. How does this war fit into your model, specifically the war cycle?
Armstrong: That too came at exactly the “right” time. Our model showed 1/16/2022. Unfortunately, instead of trying to bring peace to the world, the West has demonized Putin. The claim that Putin wanted to restore the old Soviet Union was pure propaganda. For the past 22 years he has made no attempt to restore communism, only calling Lenin himself a communist. He did not try to expand the borders but warned against NATO encroachment. In war, both sides spread propaganda, and it is always important to be objective about the claims of both sides. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was consistent with his warnings and came four days after US Vice President Harris recommended Ukraine join NATO. That was totally irresponsible.

Smart Investor: Can you see in your models which regions or countries will suffer the most in this conflict, who will get off lightly and who will be the beneficiaries?
Armstrong: On both sides there are what we call neocons, people who just hate the other side. They cannot sleep at night as long as their enemy exists. Unfortunately, the deteriorating economic outlook is a reminder that war has often served as a diversionary tactic in the past. It looks like China is allying itself with Russia. I believe the confiscation of Russian private property was a serious violation of international law. Others, too, will realize that their assets could be confiscated if their country got into a dispute with the West. This would, of course, lead to a drop in global investment. It is precisely this process that seems to have started and, according to our models, will only get much worse over the next ten years. Disputes between countries are likely to remain at this level. The arrest of individuals simply because they are Russian is reminiscent of the internment camps for Japanese in the US during World War II solely on the basis of their ethnicity. It is very detrimental to the world economy when free investment is hampered.

Image: © Angelov – stock.adobe.com

Smart Investor: If we understand it correctly, the cycles develop largely independently of the specific actions of individuals. It’s hard to imagine, but would an escalation have been inevitable even if the Russian President hadn’t given the order for the invasion?
Armstrong: That’s right. Demonizing Putin is absurd. There have been far worse leaders in history, like Hitler or Stalin, who could kill millions of people without thinking twice. The development of things is primarily determined by the economy. Normally you don’t bite the hand that feeds you. But imposing sanctions on Russia has exactly the opposite effect: they isolate Russia and sever economic ties, leading to casualties and in turn evoking anger and retaliation. Rome survived for 1,000 years because the conquered provinces benefited from selling their products to Rome. The confiscation of Russia’s currency reserves is above all a warning to China to be very careful in its dealings with the West. For China, the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system only means that it is working flat out to introduce its variant of CIPS. Saudi Arabia just agreed to sell oil for yuan. These measures only guarantee that conflicts will continue to escalate and the world economy will be split in half.

Smart Investor: As investors, we try to prepare for strong cycles like these. Which asset classes or sectors should one avoid in this situation and where can one expect safety?
Armstrong:  Government bonds in particular are to be avoided. Governments will default and you will get nothing back. The loans from European governments from before the Second World War are now just an attractive wall decoration. When a company goes bust, its assets are sold and at least you get something back. But you can’t just run into the art museum and steal Picassos in the government. In times of war and geopolitical conflict, real assets are the best security.

Smart Investor: Gold is considered the safe haven, and Bitcoin is also perceived as such in some places. However, these two assets are also more of a thorn in the side of our governments. What do you think of the idea that the Russia argument could make life difficult for investors here in the future?
Armstrong: Gold has lost its mobility – so you can’t hop on a plane and fly somewhere with a briefcase full of gold coins or bars. Cryptocurrencies are vulnerable, because without a power grid, credit cards are a thing of the past. The government is trying to switch to digital currencies and they will not allow competition so they will confiscate cryptocurrencies. The best is paper money or small denomination silver coins that are recognizable to the average person. Tin cans will also have an exchange value if there is no electricity grid.

Smart Investor: Gold and cryptocurrencies are also the main alternatives to paper money, which the war is putting additional pressure on. Will the US dollar and euro survive this?
Armstrong:  The US dollar will outlast the euro, but if we get into a real world war, the paper dollars could lose their value too. Europe has historically canceled its fiat money, while the
US dollar has never been cancelled. Even Canada is now nullifying its currency.

Smart Investor: The Great Reset, the World Economic Forum and Prof. Dr. Klaus Schwab are making waves in Europe. During the corona pandemic, the government measures literally dismantled the medium-sized economy. What do you think of the corporations’ “Big Plan” and are the actors’ ideas compatible with the cycles?
Armstrong: The Great Reset is indeed a real goal. It’s not a conspiracy theory. The three stumbling blocks along the way were Trump, Putin and Xi. They got rid of the first one, and now the propaganda has turned to demonizing Putin and Xi. They believe that if they get rid of these two leaders, they can unite the world under the United Nations. Our models have warned that authoritarianism will rise in this final decade. But they will fail. Marx succeeded only because serfdom in Russia did not end until 1861, while in Europe it only lasted until the fourteenth century. So the people owned nothing, and it was easy to confiscate the wealth of the aristocrats. Today people own their own houses, cars and save for the future. The slogan “You will have nothing and be happy” propagated by the WEF is a red herring. Governments can no longer borrow indefinitely and there will be a default. To disguise this fact, the impression is given that all debts are being forgiven and that they are doing it for you. The guaranteed basic income will be there to replace the pension funds that hold government debt today.

Smart Investor: Thank you very much for your very interesting explanations.

In stock market circles, the American Martin Armstrong (born 1949) is considered a legend. As early as the early 1980s, he correctly predicted the stock market crash of 1987 – and in the midst of the panic he predicted new highs for 1989. He also predicted the bursting of the Japanese stock bubble at the end of 1989. He made his forecasts using the “Economic Confidence Model” (ECM) he developed himself, which is based on a database on the history of coins, which Armstrong used to reconstruct the (financial) history. You can find his daily updated assessments on the blog https://armstrongeconomics.com .

Apr 15 2022

Father Explains Socialism to Son


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 15 2022

Inflation & the Cost of Labor = Unemployment Decline of the USA


Armstrong Economocs Blog/Economics Re-Posted Apr 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

To me, it is fascinating how everything dovetails in together when the computer is monitoring everything on a global scale. The projection that unemployment could reach 15% in 2020 not only came true, but it did so tied into the whole COVID scam which has provided the mechanism for government control over the population and to implement one aspect of the intended Agenda 2030 and the elimination of Democracy. But more serious than that, we still face the risk of more than 25% unemployment in the post-2024 period.

Right now, everywhere I do I see help wanted signs. Even at FedEx the other day I saw a sign help wanted. There is another aspect to this inflation and GREEN regulation that is undermining the entire world economy. We are already short over 80,000 truck drivers and then California imposing demands that Trucks must now comply with their insane regulations by January will kill off even more trucks and we can expect inflation to well exceed 20% even in their manipulated statistics.

The higher the inflation, the lower the net real wages, and this then compels small businesses to raise wages but this produces COST-PUSH inflation on top of the SHORTAGE-INFLATION and this is a lethal combination for the economy going forward. This means small businesses will decline unable to find employees and the higher the inflation, the fewer people can afford to buy. This all combines to the WORST economic outlook possible post-2024.

So stock up on that food. This is going to get much worse. With all the threats the US hurls now at China, they may think they are a Lion when they look in the mirror, but if I was China, locking down Shanghai which is the busiest port in the world will not only further wipe out trucking companies in the USA, but it will result in a further jump in inflation. So threatening sanctions against China will worsen the economy and we have already divided the world economy by ending Globalization. This is eventually the end of the United States and the dollar. Even the IMF has come out and warned this is undermining the dollar as the reserve currency.

We have the WORST possible crop of politicians in charge and they are just jumping on the bandwagon to hate Putin without ever understanding that they have dealt a permanent death blow to the world economy. Thus, our projection on unemployment may sound instance exceeding the highs of the Great Depression, but the inflation is reducing the living standards and the reduces economic activity, and that in turn results in businesses failing and jobs vanishing.

The United States has abused its position and it may think that it is a Lion, but it has been reduced to just a cat. They should pay attention to the military. The Pentagon has been trying to throw cold water on this heated invasion talk over Russia and threatening China with sanctions if they dare to help Russia is just insane. They know they are far stronger with Russia than to let Russia fall and the West would only then turn against them. There is deep concern that the USA will lose in a war with China. These politicians had better look at reality rather than the image they see in the mirror.

History repeats became human nature never changes. Although Athens was enjoying a golden age while led by Pericles, this soon came to an end and thus began the fall of Athens in 431 BC when the 27-year-long Peloponnesian War began. Athens became extremely arrogant and compelled others to donate to their treasury to protect them against another invasion by the Persians which did not happen – today’s Russia. This led to discontent and the image of Athens became tainted by arrogance.

Sparta, which was a communist society, had longed for dominance in Greece. In May of 431 BC, war broke out between Athens and Sparta. The Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC) was fought between the Delian League, which was led by Athens, and the Peloponnesian League, which was led by Sparta. Historians have traditionally divided the war into three phases. However, there were two major causes of the rise and fall of Athens. First is the conflict between the oligarchy and democracy, and its arrogance. The democracy produced many great leaders, but unfortunately, also many bad leaders. Their arrogance lived off of the past glory of the great leaders during the Persian Wars, and it led to the end of Athenian power in Greece.

The decline and fall of the United States is following the very same pages from history. It is the arrogance of the United States threatening China while attempting to destroy Russia that will be what historians write about when the dust settles.