Tag Archives: Gun Control

Jun 17 2022

Elon Musk Talks With Twitter Staff During All Hands Meeting, Video


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 16, 2022 | Sundance 

Project Veritas has published another recording of an internal Twitter all hands meeting wherein Elon Musk addressed thousands of employees for the first time since news broke of his plans to acquire the company. On the call, Musk described his affinity for Twitter and said the platform was best for “getting a message out” but noted that he was concerned about the platform as it currently stands, reiterating previous statements he’s made about bots, spam, and censorship.

“I think it’s essential to have free speech,” Musk said in response to a question about his highly publicized goal to bring free speech to the platform. When pressed about what that might mean in the context of animal abuse, sexual content and offensive tweets, Musk maintained his stance. “I think there’s also, there’s freedom of speech and freedom of breach, so I think people should be allowed to say … pretty outrageous things that are within the balance, the law, but, but then they don’t, you know, get amplified,” Musk added.  WATCH:

.

Jun 16 2022

The European Debt Crisis 2023-2024


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Jun 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The European Central Bank has announced that it plans to create a new tool to tackle the risk of eurozone fragmentation, which is the new term for divergence among member states. They are adopting this tactic out of fears of a new European debt crisis that is inevitable. From the very beginning when the EU Commission was charged with designing the Euro can to our conference in London in 1997, I warned that the promises that everyone would be paying the same rate of interest merely because they were creating a single currency was a complete fantasy. I further warned that this would lead to the collapse of the Euro if not the entire EU.

I explained that they were comparing the Euro to the Federal Debt of the US when the failure to consolidate the debts of the EU meant that the real outcome would be like the USA at the state level. A single currency did not mean that every state paid the same interest rates in the USA and that would be the ultimate reaction of the free markets. We are now in the 24th years of the Euro and its survival because deb stable post-2024.

The ECB’s decision has come as a surprise following an emergency meeting to address higher borrowing costs for many European governments on an uneven playing field. The ECB made a statement:

“Since the gradual process of policy normalization was initiated in December 2021, the Governing Council has pledged to act against resurgent fragmentation risks.”

“The pandemic has left lasting vulnerabilities in the euro area economy which are indeed contributing to the uneven transmission of the normalization of our monetary policy across jurisdictions,” 

The comments are trying to explain the recent surge in bond yields over the past week or so as capital is starting to smell a rat. ECB has implied a more aggressive policy tightening is coming but it still failed to deliver any new measures that would support the growing unrestrained debt load. With Green governments seizing power, and the absurd sanctions on Russia, it is hard to see where there is any understanding of fiscal management on the horizon.

European capital is now very concerned about financial “fragmentation” meaning the disparity among member states in interest rates. There is clearly a rise in rates in Southern Europe compared to northern. The ECB is now saying that it will “reinvest redemptions” from its emergency bond-purchasing program. So in other words, it will NOT reduce its balance sheet concerning bonds that are under pressure for that will force greater disparity ahead – i.e. fragmentation.

The ECB claimed that its commitment to the euro is its anti-fragmentation policy. They have said that this commitment “has no limits.” Previously, Southern EU states faced materially higher borrowing costs in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis back in 2011. This is a complete disaster for the failure to have consolidated the debt meant that their idea of one monetary policy for 19 different fiscal positions cannot possibly work. I tried to explain to them from the beginning that the 12 original branches of the Fed were independent and they would raise or lower rates depending upon the regional impact. It was Roosevelt who usurped that authority and created one rate for all in 1935 creating the new head branch in Washington.

The yield on the Italian bonds traded over 4% and has broken through the Downtrend Line. While people hope that the ECB’s announcement in this unscheduled emergency meeting means they will be in control, this is more like the 5-time-divorced soul getting married again for the sixth time confirming that hope can triumph over experience. The broader long-term is that borrowing costs will have nowhere to go but higher.

The ECB’s decision to reinvestment what it previously bought merely confirms that there is a serious sovereign debt crisis unfolding.

Jun 16 2022

CNN Puts Inflation into a Political Context


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance

The people controlling policy behind the Biden administration do not care about polling or political consequence.  Biden is the one-term disposable tool for their collective effort to fundamentally change the United States.  They have a singular focus on pushing the most destructive and consequential Green New Deal policy regardless of collateral damage.  For them, using Joe Biden is a one-way ticket.

That said, none of the current political officeholders within the Democrat apparatus are going to escape the blast radius from this chaos.  CNN runs a segment asking the question, how bad is the damage going to be from the Joe Biden economic policy?  WATCH (90 secs):

.

Jun 16 2022

First American Mercenary Contractors Captured in Ukraine by Russian Military


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance 

A contracted mercenary has no legal recognition or protection as a prisoner of war.  Two American mercenary soldiers have been captured by Russian forces and now present a rather unique issue for the Biden administration.   The traditional end result for captured mercenaries is execution; however, Russian President Vladimir Putin may not want to hang these two State Dept. conscripts.

(Via Telegraph) – Two former US servicemen have been captured during fighting with Russian forces in Ukraine, The Telegraph has been told. The pair were taken prisoner during a fierce battle outside the north-east city of Kharkiv last week, according to comrades who were fighting alongside them.

Alexander Drueke, 39, and Andy Huynh, 27, had been serving as volunteers with a regular Ukrainian army unit. They are believed to be the first US servicemen to end up as Russian prisoners of war. They join a growing number of Western military volunteers captured by Russian forces, including at least two Britons.

Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner have already been told they face the death penalty as “mercenaries”. The capture of the two Americans will be diplomatically sensitive as the Kremlin may seek to use it as proof that America is becoming directly involved in the war. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is likely to demand significant concessions to release them. (read more)

Jun 16 2022

Mayra Flores Victory in Rio Grande Valley Election Highlights Latino Rejection of Democrat Gender Sexuality Nonsense


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance 

Much is being made of Mayra Flores flipping Texas CD-34 (South Austin through Rio Grande Valley) from democrat to republican with a special election victory last night.  Indeed, a great many cocktail class republicans, those who couldn’t identify a taco without a bell next to it, are waxing philosophically about the political ramifications and what it means.

However, in ordinary terms, what Flores did was highlight a commonsense cultural disconnect between modern leftists and working-class Latinos who carry one of the best and most valuable dispositions for this day and age…. An unwillingness to pretend.

Men have penises and cannot have babies.  Women do not have penises and can have babies. That might sound radical given the incessant drumbeat from leftist, DC, Marxist democrats who manipulate sociology and science, but it’s the truth.

Spend time with any Latino group, family, friends or coworkers and start talking about the modern political left, and you will quickly find out this is one socioeconomic group who are not into this modern cultural pretending.  Their willingness to speak quiet truth is refreshing, even if they -at first- keep quiet until they see that you are not sold into the cultural ‘isms’ of madness.

Faith and family are important to the Latino community.  Additionally, a tradition of respect for pragmatic commonsense within the social fabric of the Latin and Mexican culture also inoculates them from gender nonsense.  It takes a few generations of American cultural infection before the commonsense synapse is numbed by the democrat drumbeat.

In order for modern democrats to continue advancing their insane ideology, they must pretend not to know things.  First generation Latinos do not have any reference point to join the democrat assembly of pretending.  Mrs. Flores tapped into that cultural truth and won easily; however, I doubt the professional republican party has any idea what that means.

(Via Politico) – […] Flores sailed to victory in Texas’ 34th District, where former Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela resigned from his seat in March to work for a lobbying firm. In one of the most Latino districts in the country, and one where Democrats have routinely won by comfortable margins for years, Flores garnered 51 percent of the vote, winning the special election without a runoff. The district lines are shifting for the next election in November 2022, but she will hold this seat until January.

Flores immigrated from Tamaulipas, Mexico when she was six years old and grew up in the Rio Grande Valley region. In addition to working as a respiratory care practitioner, Flores served as the Hidalgo County GOP Hispanic Outreach chair to increase and maintain Republican support among Latinos in the area — which has been ramping up in recent years.

Before Flores won her district Tuesday, President Joe Biden carried it by 4 points over Donald Trump in 2020 — a huge shift from the previous presidential elections under these district lines, when Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012 were blown out by 20-plus points each.

While Flores grew up seeing most of her immigrant family vote blue, she eventually realized her views on religion, abortion and border security were more in line with the Republican Party. (read more)

Jun 16 2022

Biden Announces Another $1 Billion in Cash to “Help Ukraine Families Purchase Essential Items”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance 

The White House shares the contents of another phone call between Joe Biden and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today in a media release.  According to the details of the call, a generous Joe Biden has directed another $1 billion in aid to the laundry operation in order to assist Ukraine “families to purchase essential items.”

WHITE HOUSE – “This morning, I spoke with President Zelenskyy to discuss Russia’s brutal and ongoing war against Ukraine.

[…] I informed President Zelenskyy that the United States is providing another $1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine.

[…] We also remain committed to supporting the Ukrainian people whose lives have been ripped apart by this war. Today, I am also announcing an additional $225 million in humanitarian assistance to help people inside Ukraine, including by supplying safe drinking water, critical medical supplies and health care, food, shelter, and cash for families to purchase essential items.” (read more)

Jun 16 2022

Get Beyond the Gaslighting – Media Now Falsely Claim Biden Administration Underestimated Negative U.S. Economic Impact from Russian Sanctions


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance

I am tired and weary of the bullshit from every side of the political continuum -particularly the professionally republican idiots- that continue to hide the reality of the situation.  We are adults, let us talk honestly in the framework of reality; that will allow prudent preparation for the massive crisis we are about to experience.

When the tenant realizes they have a leaking fish tank, they realize they are going to be financially responsible for the water damage.  The tenant concocts a plan to avoid responsibility. The tenant intentionally loosens a pipe in the bathroom creating water damage, thereby hiding the fish tank leak.

The owner is now on the hook for the repair. The tenant escapes liability.

The people behind Joe Biden knew their radical transformation of energy policy was going to create massive economic damage.

The people behind Biden used the opportunity of the Ukraine-Russia conflict to trigger economic sanctions they knew would worsen the global inflation damage they were creating through energy policy.

Economic sanctions against Russia were as used as the broken pipe in the bathroom to hide the energy policy fish tank leak.  All of the media discussing the situation are now pretending not to know this.  The conservative pundits are a combination of pretending and too stupid to actually see what is happening.

BLOOMBERG – […] There’s no sign that administration officials feel their sanctions policy was a mistake or that they want to dial back the pressure. If anything, officials have said a key US goal is to ensure Russia can’t do to other nations what it has done in Ukraine. 

But the collateral damage from the sanctions has been wider than expected. 

When the invasion began, the Biden administration believed that if penalties exempted food and energy, the impact on inflation at home would be minimal. Since then, energy and food have become key drivers of the highest US inflation rates in 40 years, a huge political liability for President Joe Biden and the Democratic party heading into November’s mid-term elections. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that she “was wrong” in believing last year that inflationary pressures would pass. One of the results that she’s now seeing is related to the spike in prices due to unexpected self-sanctioning, according to one person familiar with her thinking.

So while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has urged US businesses to cease operations in Russia, telling a joint session of Congress that the Russian market was “flooded with our blood,’’ the Biden administration has been encouraging some commerce, including for agriculture, medicine and telecommunications. For instance, the US government is quietly encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer, according to people familiar with the efforts, as sanctions fears have led to a sharp drop in supplies, pressuring food costs. (read more)

Bloomberg is running this article as a distraction, directly implying the Biden administration did not realize how much additional damage the sanctions against Russia would create.  There are many articles of a similar nature by multiple outlets.  All of them are designed to ignore the reality of the situation.

We are rapidly assembling data now that will allow us to give CTH readers a real-world estimate of just how damaging things are going to be.

Tracking raw materials, supply chain costs, distribution limits, advanced and sequential purchase orders, as well as inbound costs associated with the supply chain for essential goods and services, we are nearing enough data to make a prediction.

In the fall of 2021 CTH was able to provide a 100-day countdown window to the first major wave of inflationary impacts.  Purchase orders cycling in net terms of 30, 60, 90 or 180 days allowed us to see the increases in product costs that were aggregating in the supply chain.  Readers watched in real time as those weeks and months passed giving us the exact outcome we expected.

While we still need a little more data to make the best possible prediction for the next 120-day forecast, I am relatively certain we can give an advanced estimate today.

A current shopping cart of traditional staple items at the supermarket (full basket) is roughly $300 representing about a $75 increase in price since early January 2022.   The $300 typical basket is essentially enough product to create 10 days of multiple purpose meals for the average family (4 people).

Using that $300 basket as the new baseline, I can predict the next wave of price increases will drive that single basket cost to $500 by late fall.  This is the scale of inbound inflation that is going to arrive at approximately the same time as the mid-term election.

As you can tell, the next wave of price increases is significantly larger than the two that preceded it.  The $300 shopping cart is going to cost around $500 when all of the increased costs are fully matriculated in the retail supply chain.  This is the scale of food store inflation you should be preparing for now.  Offsetting this cost increase is the challenge you should be considering right now.

More details will follow, but the final numbers are going to be close to this scale.

Jun 16 2022

Retail Sales Turn Negative in May Reflecting Continued Contraction Within Economy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 

The U.S. economy is 70% driven by consumer spending.  When consumers stop spending the economy shrinks, it is that simple.  The U.S. Dept of Commerce has released the May retail sales [pdf DATA HERE], showing a 0.3% drop in retail sales for the month.  If you are interested in details, look at Table-2.

The critical point to remember is this sentence extracted from CNBC, “the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which increased 1% for the month on the headline number and 0.6% excluding food and energy.”  Everyone ignores this point, and every MSM economist pretends not to know it.

Retail sales -as measured in units purchased- have been in a contracting position since June of 2021.  When the current data shows a drop of -0.3% in May, the actual drop in retail sales is much, much greater.  The dept of commerce calculates retail sales in dollars.  When prices are 20% higher and sales are low, retailers are selling less stuff (less units) at higher prices.  This has been the reality of our economy for several months.  This is also why productivity has been declining for more than a year.

If you take the 8.6% inflation rate (far understated) and an aggregate drop in sales of 0.3% (again, far understated as a measure of inflation), that means consumers are spending limited incomes on critical or essential purchases like housing, food, fuel and energy.  Consumers are not purchasing durable goods; people are hunkering down.

Yearly retail sales (May ’21 compared to May ’22) are +8.1%.  However, yearly retail inflation for the same period is +8.6%.  Again, reflecting that less stuff is being purchased inside the economy at higher prices.  If the commerce dept was measuring actual units being purchased, we would be seeing massive drops in sales.

(Via CNBC) – […] Advance retail and food service spending fell 0.3% for the month, below the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.1% gain. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.5%, which fell short of expectations for a 0.8% increase.

The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which increased 1% for the month on the headline number and 0.6% excluding food and energy.

Sales were well below the pace in April, which posted a downwardly revised 0.7% increase from the initial 0.9% estimate.

Spending for the month declined even though sales at gas stations increased 4% due to fuel prices that scaled new heights, with regular unleaded hitting $4.43 a gallon in May and now running around $5. That growth was offset by a 3.5% decline at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Miscellaneous store retailers saw a 1.1% drop in sales, while online stores posted a 1% decline. Bars and restaurants registered a 0.7% increase, part of a broader trend that has seen spending gradually shift from goods back to services.

On a yearly basis, sales were still up 8.1% as spending, combined with higher prices, has put a floor under the numbers. Consumers have been resilient through the inflation wave, using savings to compensate for the higher costs. (read more)

The people within the economic bureaucracy, that are aligned with the political ideology of the Biden administration, are going to lie on the second quarter statistics in order to protect the administration.  The Q2 data is going to be heavily manipulated by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dept of Labor, Dept of Transportation and Dept of Commerce in order to hide the second quarter results.

Import data will be manipulated to help hide the GDP contraction.  The rates of inflation within the economy will be manipulated downward in order to help hide the GDP contraction.  All of the agencies aligned within government will manipulate the data in order to avoid a Q2 contraction which, when added to the Q1 contraction, would mean we are in a factual recession.

We are in an abusive relationship with our own government.

Jun 15 2022

Russian Oil Boycott Fails


Armstring Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jun 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The West thought they’d cripple Russia’s economy when they stopped buying Russian oil. Gas prices in the West are on the rise and at unsustainable levels. Meanwhile, Putin is having the last laugh as he is now selling more oil at a higher price point.

In April, Russian oil exports rose by 620,000 b/d to 8.1 million b/d. India (+730,000 b/d) and Turkey (+180,000 b/d) helped to offset the international embargo, while the EU remained the largest importer despite a sharp reduction in shipments. The IEA reported that Russian oil exports rose over 50% YoY during the first four months of the year.

Oil jumped in price last week from $92 per barrel to $122. Gas in the US was $2.10 under Trump. Biden took office and prices rose to $2.37 within the first two months due to a series of decisions that prevented America from remaining energy independent. Before Russia even invaded, gas reached $3.51 per gallon, and now the national average is surpassing $5.00. The boycott has completely backfired on the West and has helped strengthen the Russian economy.

Jun 15 2022

Democrats May Not Endorse Biden in 2024


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Democrats may not back Biden for reelection in 2024. They do not particularly care that he is destroying the country, but his record-low approval rating is bad for the party at large. Over the weekend, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) all but admitted that the Democrats are not eager to support Biden running for a second term. AOC said the primary goal is to secure the majority at the moment.

“We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it,” AOC told a reporter at CNN, “But I think if the president has a vision, then that’s something we’re all certainly willing to entertain and examine when the time comes.” AOC, who backed Bernie over Biden during the last election, said she believes the president has been doing “a very good job so far.” Yet, she refused to give a definitive answer.

A recent New York Times article revealed that at least 50 party members are vocally frustrated with the current administration.  “Midway through the 2022 primary season, many Democratic lawmakers and party officials are venting their frustrations with President Biden’s struggle to advance the bulk of his agenda, doubting his ability to rescue the party from a predicted midterm trouncing and increasingly viewing him as an anchor that should be cut loose in 2024,” the article noted.

The midterm elections will reveal whether the nation is beginning to lean to the right and likely will determine the possibility of the Democrats endorsing Biden in the next presidential election.