Posted originally on the conservative three house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance
Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared on CNBC to announce we have reached peak inflation, and things will moderate from here. All of these fed moves are political moves, not monetary policy-based moves. Here’s the thing they will never admit to the non-institutional investor.
The fed has been painfully slow to raise interest rates on purpose. They did not make a mistake. The reason for their delay is they needed to wait for the beginning of the first 2021 inflation wave to cycle through before they raised interest rates. It’s a game of mirrors that almost no one sees. WATCH:
The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year. The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working. They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else. Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year. By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.
So that’s why they waited. But here’s the worse part….
All of these U.S. Fed monetary policymakers are in full ideological alignment with the global and central bankers. They are all following the same Build Back Better agenda and policy instructions.
All of bankers know the shift from ‘dirty energy’, coal, oil, natural gas, will create inflation. All of the bankers know there is no economic bridge within the plan to shift from oil to their unicorn dust. All of the bankers know that shutting down oil exploration as a matter of western unified policy will, as a factual matter, destroy the economic systems that rely on energy….. which is to say everything.
All of these bankers know the severity of the inflation crisis this energy shift creates. None of them do not know.
Everything they are doing is coordinated to assist the climate change agenda.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance
he “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released March price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 11.2% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level. This is the fifth consecutive month with the highest rate of inflation the PPI ever recorded.
The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.3% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price. Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery. I modified Table-A (FINAL DEMAND) to take out some of the noise.
Wholesale prices of goods jumped 2.3 percent in March, and the wholesale price of food products jumped 2.4 percent. The total demand inflation compared to last year is 11.2 percent, the highest rate ever recorded since the PPI tracking was first started.
The total final demand monthly calculation (1.4%) is lower than the final demand goods (2.3%), because final demand services are offsetting. You may remember the discussion/analysis about prices beginning to stabilize after this month due to a contraction in demand for goods and services. I see support for that thesis within this data.
The three phases of wholesale product creation: (1) origination, (2) intermediate, and (3) final, cycle through the economic analysis in reverse chronological order. Roughly speaking, the flow of goods quantified is done in 30-day sequences. Final demand this month is comparing to final demand in March 2021. The intermediate demand goods this month will become final demand goods next month (April).
The rate of inflation behind this set of final demand goods is beginning to soften. See Table B, Intermediate goods. Again, modified to take out the noise:
While the yearly comparison for both processed and unprocessed intermedia goods is eye dropping, in the unprocessed intermediate demand goods, we are starting to see a lessening of monthly price increases.
In essence, prices have been rising so fast and for such an extended period of time, that we are now cycling through the rate of increase and starting to compare it to last year when the rate of increase was originally going high. As a consequence, the rate of price increase will likely lessen, even though the actual price may still keep climbing within the manufacturing process.
The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising. In addition to the consumer prices reported yesterday, this wholesale price data is showing the most recent increases (March) in fuel and transportation costs. For the next report these figures should now plateau.
♦ BOTTOM LINE – We have not yet reached PEAK INFLATION – However, the price increases from wholesalers to retailers are now at parity. The increased price of things coming into the supply chain are now at similar rates of increase when compared to the stuff on the shelves.
Inflation from field to fork is now fully matriculated and embedded in the total economy as a result of two massive price waves (July to October 2021 and November to March 2022). Those prices will never fall.
Highly consumable goods like food, fuel and energy will remain at approximately the price today for a period of around five months, then we will see the third wave kick in as the new higher harvest prices hit the processors in late summer.
The prices for non-essential durable goods, like cars, electronics, appliances etc. from this moment forth will now be determined by demand. Highly sought after goods will increase in price as more customers chase fewer products. However, ordinary or widely available durable goods will likely start to come down in price very soon as inventories climb because consumer spending has prioritized and dropped non essential goods from their shopping lists.
To put it more succinctly: The stuff we need will cost more. The stuff we don’t need will cost less.
COMMENT #1: Well, at least I got the decline accelerating in the Ruble correct and thanks to your models knew the war and commodity cycles were turning up. Getting the fundamentals correct ahead of time is a work in progress and definitely not easy.
But while watching the Ruble crashing into weakness going into the ECM, one could not reverse position and go long the RUB. Heck, nobody could even open new positions and definitely not buy the RUB. All that was allowed was closing already existing positions. And now the RUB was even removed from the trading platform altogether.
So my original trading strategy of shorting and then going long RUB got cut short and max profits throw out the window. So much for free markets.
EM
COMMENT #2: Marty you have proven your model and computer is the key to running governments for the future living with the cycle. It is easy to see why the CIA wanted your model pinpointing Ukraine almost 10 years in advance as the key spot for war. It is also interesting how others prefer not to ever mention you for your work is not opinion like everyone else. I really hope you succeed in securing Socrates for the world long-term. We all can learn so much.
All the best from Poland
and thanks for the conference that you did here in Warsaw
VA
REPLY: The free markets are not so free. During the Civil War, even President Lincoln went after trading gold and argued those people were making money off of every battle. The EU wanted to take trading the Euro away from London because of BREXIT. The people running these governments will NEVER honor the free markets when they go against them.
Yes, it was very nice to meet everyone in Warsaw. I had not been there before. I am doing my best to make sure Socrates continues beyond my shelf life. The problem is that the world is run by the seat of its pants and it is always based upon bias, prejudice, and power-plays driven by ego. I think some people just need to have an enemy and no matter what changes, they ignore that to keep the hatred ongoing.
There are people who still call China Communist even though there is private ownership which is the opposite of communism. They will continue to hate China no matter what and that in turn only invokes a response to counter that trend. Biases like that prevent us from ever moving forward and society is at times like a scratched record playing the same track over and over again.
Posted originally on the conservative tree House on February 3, 2022 | Sundance | 328 Comments
Senator Ray Lujan from New Mexico suffered a stroke recently. Thankfully, despite the seriousness of his medical situation, he is expected to make a recovery. However, he will likely miss all U.S. Senate work for at least a month. Lujan’s absence creates a significant issue for Senate Democrats in an upper chamber with a 50/50 split.
Lujan suffered the stroke last Thursday, on the same day Joe Biden announced the retirement of Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer. The news of Senator Lujan’s major medical condition has been essentially quiet.
With Joe Biden expecting to nominate a Supreme Court justice very soon, the senator’s absence could be problematic.
However, not to worry, creepy Joe’s recent praise of Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham will likely assist.
WASHINGTON DC – […] While the 49-year-old New Mexico Democrat is expected to make a full recovery, no one knew when he would return to the evenly divided Senate, or what it means for the immediate agenda.
Luján’s unexpected medical condition comes at a moment when Senate Democrats simply don’t have any votes to spare to pass party priorities, including reviving their social spending bill and now confirming a Supreme Court justice. The latest news could leave Democrats reliant on Republican votes to move forward on nominees and other priorities.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday evening that Democrats are “grateful” that Luján will make a “full recovery” and that he looks forward to his return to the Senate. He predicted that “the Senate will be able to carry forward with its business.”
Carlos Sanchez, Luján’s chief of staff, said that the senator checked himself into a hospital Thursday afternoon in Santa Fe after experiencing dizziness and fatigue. The senator later learned he had suffered a stroke and had to undergo decompressive surgery. (read more)
President Biden: "Mitch [McConnell], I don't want to hurt your reputation, but we really are friends, and that is not an epiphany we're having here at the moment. You've always done exactly what you've said, you're a man of your word. and you're a man of honor." pic.twitter.com/w9J0tDBO05
If you watch anything today, this is it. AP Journalist Matt Lee has been around for a long time. He’s the consistent person in the State Department briefing room who understands the deep state institutional games, and he knows how to spot narrative engineering.
Earlier today State Department Spokesman Ned Price said, “The United States has information that Russia is planning to stage fabricated attacks by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces as a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine.”
Journalist Matt Lee then asked Ned Price what the declassified evidence was that the state dept was referring to. Price responded that he just gave it to the audience; meaning his word was the evidence. Matt Lee calls bullshit on Price, and things got really interesting. WATCH:
Folks, the intelligence state, the Fourth Branch of Government, is making it all up. Everything about this Russian looming attack narrative has been manufactured out of whole cloth by the Intelligence Community and Biden administration.
The statements and position by Ned Price are transparently absurd. Ridiculously so. Matt Lee calling the bluff on the U.S. State Department, and comparing them to Alex Jones conspiracy theorists, is peak insanity. No one trusts the U.S. government institutions any longer. Everyone knows the “intelligence state” makes stuff up to steer and control events. It’s a joke.
Russia is likely not doing anything, likely doesn’t even have a threatening posture, but yet, inside the DC bubble we are on the precipice of a thermonuclear war. We have passed through the looking glass, and now we are in bizarro world.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 3, 2022 | Sundance | 133 Comments
According to the White House, 50 special forces operators attacked the leadership compound of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, the ISIS replacement head for Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi who was killed in 2019. According to the White House occupant, after a lengthy engagement with U.S. forces, al-Qurayshi killed himself the same way al-Baghdadi did, by exploding a bomb. There were no U.S. casualties.
(Via ABC) First responders reported that 13 people had been killed, including six children and four women. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said U.S. officials believe al-Qurayshi’s explosive killed himself, his wife, and three children. She added that U.S. officials were conducting an assessment to determine whether American action resulted in any civilian deaths. (more)
The White House background briefing on the strike IS HERE. The remarks by Joe Biden ARE HERE.
Sending 50 special operators for one building engagement is a little heavy; however, obviously the White House was petrified that something would go wrong, and the last thing Ron Klain wants would be another boondoggle to add to the pile of disasters this administration has created.
That said, rather than debate the mission, I would draw attention to the location and bigger picture. Northern Syria is part of the Muslim Brotherhood territory under the influence of Turkish President Recep Erdogan. ISIS, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, and all extremist Islamic factions therein are all just various shades of authentic Islam as promoted by The Muslim Brotherhood.
Turkey is a member of NATO. Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi and all of the various offshoots of ISIS could not operate in Northern Syria without the assistance of Turkey. But we are not allowed to talk about that. Notice how none of the media ask the White House or Pentagon if we discussed the attack with Turkey in advance?
Background – Circa 2018
The announcement of The United States drawing down troop deployment from Northern Syria, with the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia sending in replacements to bolster the region, highlights a much larger backstory.
President Obama’s February ’09 Cairo speech began a sequence of events that led to what was called the “Arab Spring” – factually an extremist uprising. Bolstered by the resulting chaos, the Muslim Brotherhood rose to power in Egypt behind Mohammed Morsi.
However, a majority of the Egyptian people rejected President Morsi’s Sharia governance, and asked a well respected General Fattah al-Sisi to step in.
Accepting the request of a desperate people, Sisi removed Morsi, disbanded the Muslim Brotherhood and went on to win a landslide election in 2014.
The leadership of the Brotherhood fled to Qatar.
President Obama and his policy team were not happy with this outcome. Obama supported Morsi, not al-Sisi. Another person who was not happy was Turkish President Recep Erdogan, who also supported Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Undeterred, and understanding the need for urgency, Egyptian President al-Sisi then began a long process of confronting extremism. Sisi destroyed the Hamas terror tunnels on the border between Egypt and Israel; and, despite the anxiety expressed by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Sisi brokered an interim peace agreement between the Palestinian Authority and Israelis.
Destroying the Hamas tunnels removed the physical terror influence of Iran. President al-Sisi then returned his focus back to Qatar and their support for the exiled leadership of the Brotherhood.
President al-Sisi formed a coalition against Qatar. This coalition included the UAE and Saudi Arabia who withdrew their ambassadors and isolated Qatar in the region. This was the beginning of what we now call, more broadly, the Arab coalition. The coalition initiated sanctions against Qatar until they stopped financing and harboring terror. Remember, this is late in 2014 and a lot is happening really fast.
Against growing pressure from Arab states, including the Gulf Cooperation Council, Qatar agreed to expel seven leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Again, reflecting his alignment with the Brotherhood, and with much more grand ambitions of a new Ottoman empire as his unspoken motive, Recep Erdogan provided the terror leaders a home in Turkey.
It is important to note timing (’13, ’14, ’15,) and the political alignments:
President Obama, Turkey (Erdogan), Qatar, the Palestinian Authority, and Iran, were aligned with favorable outlook toward the Muslim Brotherhood.
Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE and the Gulf Arab states were not favorable toward the Muslim Brotherhood.
In the background of this ideological conflict, Syria was in a state of civil war as a result of U.S. Obama policy carried out by Secretary Clinton/Leon Panetta and Secretary Kerry/John Brennan. Obama was aligned with Turkey, again Erdogan, who wants greater influence and has a vision of his new Ottoman empire.
As gatekeeper between Europe and the Middle East, Erdogan knows the value of his geography and the influence it provides him.
Erdogan also wants to absorb Northern Syria and is willing to enlist his Muslim Brotherhood allies toward his goals. However, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (team anti-Brotherhood) are against the expansion of Turkish influence.
Despite President Obama’s ongoing opposition, Egyptian President al-Sisi faced down Turkey over a U.N. Security Council seat and quietly defeated them. [In a secret ballot, Erdogan lost.] At the same time this was happening, expansive energy reserves via natural gas, were discovered to be much larger than initially thought off the coast of Israel.
♦Fast forward to the 2016 presidential election and outcome of a Donald Trump victory. With President Trump, the power dynamic shifts.
Hillary Clinton, recognizing the value of the financial benefit from Qatar, would have supported the Muslim Brotherhood; Donald Trump did not.
The Anti-Brotherhood, anti-extremism team now have an ally. The key voices are Egyptian President Fattah al-Sisi, Saudi Arabia King Salman, and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.
President Trump supported the disposition and view of the Arab coalition (Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, GCC and ultimately Israel); President Trump was not supportive of the Pro-Brotherhood more extremist team (Turkey, Qatar, Palestinian Authority), and that becomes brutally obvious during the historic U.S-Gulf Arab Summit, when President Trump tells the audience to “drive out” the extremist voices.
Back to Syria. The Brotherhood is the political branch of multiple extremist groups. The bottom line is the Brotherhood supports radical Sunni extremism regardless of faction or fighting force. President Recep Erdogan of Turkey also favors the Brotherhood; and unfortunately, he leverages his position inside NATO with that favorability in mind.
Recep Erdogan wanted Northern Syria, and he wanted to eliminate any resistance toward his gaining Northern Syria – specifically, the Kurdish resistance.
Concerns over this key point was what drove a wedge between government policy advisers. Differences of opinion over this key point are what was driving opposition to Trump’s withdrawal position from Syria.
The Arab coalition, and Israel, oppose Erdogan. President Trump was undergoing a transition period for quite some time. Trump’s plan was essentially to draw down U.S. troops in Syria, and replace them with regional Arab coalition allies to bolster the Kurds. Many U.S. voices were concerned that Turkey (Erdogan) would attack this coalition and the Kurds, without the presence of U.S. troops.
Ultimately, this is where President Trump’s unique strategy became important.
President Trump was aware of the duplicitous and untrustworthy nature of President Erdogan; simultaneously Erdogan is in the NATO alliance. President Trump would obviously not allow fear of a NATO ally to drive U.S. policy, and he was right.
If you think about it, either: (A) Turkey needs to comply with group regional security and stability measures; or (B) Turkey needs to be kicked out of NATO, confronted and crushed.
Which option do you think President Trump was working on?
December 23, 2018:
December 24, 2018:
Knowing the economic approach that President Trump brought to solving these challenges, it was obvious Trump was positioning for option “A”, but in the background hoping for the opportunity to use option “B”, which would really get to the root of the problem.
This geopolitical dynamic also provided a clearer understanding of what motives Erdogan held when he was so aggressively antagonizing over the Kashoggi matter and trying to create a fracture in the relationship between President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MbS).
[…] We know that Jamal Khashoggi was never a journalist—at least, not in the usual sense of the word; he was a highly-partisan operative who worked with a handler to publish propaganda at the behest of the Emirate of Qatar. He was, in other words, an agent of influence. (read more)
Yes, that’s correct. Even the New York Times admitted Jamal Khashoggi was actually receiving his articles from the Qatar government explicitly to push an agenda favorable to their pro-Muslim Brotherhood views.
Now think about this. In the U.S. we know The Washington Post is essentially the print propaganda for the U.S. intelligence apparatus, and more specifically the CIA. Khashoggi was working at the Washington Post to write stories, approved by Qatar, favorable to the Muslim Brotherhood. The CIA Director was John Brennan – the former head of U.S. CIA Saudi office.
Notice how the pro-Brotherhood ideological gang is all connected around Khashoggi? Turkey, Qatar, CIA (Obama, Brennan) etc.
Oh, and one last thing. Remember that 2014/2015 massive natural gas reserve discovery off the coast of Israel?
Remember that?
Well, there was a 2018 development:
JERUSALEM (AP) — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said that Israel, Greece and Cyprus will sign an agreement early next year to build a pipeline to carry natural gas from the eastern Mediterranean to Europe, while the United States pledged its support for the ambitious project.
The $7 billion project, expected to take six or seven years to complete, promises to reshape the region as an energy provider and dent Russia’s dominance over the European energy market. It also could curtail Iranian ambitions to use Syria as a gateway to the eastern Mediterranean.
Speaking at a summit with the Greek and Cypriot leaders in southern Israel, Netanyahu said the three nations reaffirmed their commitment to the pipeline and discussed “important aspects” of the project. Italy is also a partner in the pipeline’s planning. Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades said the project is waiting for a green light from the European Union to move forward.
“We’re going to sign formally, officially, this agreement in a few months,” he said.
In another boost for the project, U.S. Ambassador David Friedman hailed the pipeline as integral to the “stability and prosperity of the Middle East and Europe,” and urged all countries in the region to ensure its success.
Washington is eyeing the east Mediterranean with renewed interest. In a meeting with the Greek foreign minister earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the region “an important strategic frontier” for Washington, which is working to strengthen its relations with “democratic allies there like Greece and Cyprus and Israel.” (read more)
Do you know who was the original energy policy consultant; the person who constructed the obscure -at the time- policy paper plan to avoid an EU pipeline through Turkey; and who put all of these regional heads together that ultimately ended with this announced deal?
That would be the little known, generally invisible young energy adviser, who would eventually become the central figure in the “spygate” targeting, George Papadopoulos.
Yes, for those following the granules as they expose… that energy extraction strategy alone would have put Papadopoulos in opposition to the interests of President Obama, candidate Clinton, Turkey, Qatar and ultimately Iran and Russia.
Huh… Funny that.
It’s almost as if….. I digress.
FAST FORWARD TO 2019
December 16, 2019, the White House released a letter sent by President Trump to President Erdogan, of Turkey, dated October 9th.
The letter was sent two days after President Trump made the decision to pull 28 members of the U.S. military out of harm’s way; two days before President Trump outlined the sanctions against Turkey; and five days before President Trump initiated those sanctions through Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
The warning was clear. President Trump was clear-eyed about the motives and intentions of the Turkish president, and Erdogan’s ideological alignment with political Islam via The Muslim Brotherhood.
One of the reasons this strategy is better than any military action, is simply because Turkey is a unique NATO ally, and the NATO alliance within Europe is insufferably incapable and unwilling to take action to defend their interests.
European NATO members wanted the benefits of a perpetual U.S. military presence. That EU outlook was simply beyond the limits of what President Trump was willing to do.
President Trump wanted to bring our troops home.
President Trump made it clear that any action by Turkey into Syria was unilateral. There will be no assistance by the U.S. on any aspect – including if Turkey was counter-attacked by Russia/Syria or organized Kurdish forces.
Essentially, Trump left Erdogan naked to a myriad of his enemies.
The U.S. part of the NATO shield is removed. The Europeans will not evoke the NATO defense treaty without the U.S. Heck, the EU is essentially spineless without the power of the U.S. military. Additionally, President Trump is calling out the duplicity of the entire situation by calling all of their bluffs. President Trump is calling out: NATO, weak EU ‘allies’ and Turkey.
In essence, the Trump White House approach was a major Gordian knot being cut. It is unlikely President Erdogan expected to have this framework made so public.
With Europe refusing to stand up to defend their own interests, President Trump removed U.S. forces from the untenable position of guarding all the big cat cages, ad infinitum, to keep the zoo status intact.
Instead, President Trump supported the Arab coalition and the GCC that has been assembling a military coalition to protect itself from the Muslim Brotherhood.
That, along with the strategic need to keep global oil prices low to offset any influence by Iran and Russia, is why President Trump was willing to support Saudi Arabia with more troops – while simultaneously withdrawing from Syria where the U.S. was having to stand alone to protect the interests of Europeans who will not protect themselves.
In one regional area, the U.S. would support and defend Israel, Egypt and Jordan. In the Southern region the U.S. will support the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Yemen, Bahrain and Qatar).
Will political Islam likely have a resurgence in the region, and will Recep Erdogan rise as the head of the Ottoman Empire once again? The former is likely, the latter is unknown.
President Trump was correctly withdrawing U.S. troops from a position of adversarialism against a NATO member. Why should the U.S. protect the interests of allies who will not be standing up to protect themselves?
President Trump was correct.
President Trump used economic weapons against Turkey. And, in keeping with the economic doctrine, Europe was also in the crosshairs.
President Trump would use economic weapons, a new U.S-EU trade deal, against the EU for creating this mess and refusing to defend themselves.
President Trump would only use military weapons to protect allies that were: (A) willing to protect themselves, and (B) willing to pay for the support of the U.S. military protection.
It really was a commonsense doctrine. Help those who help themselves.
This was one of those weird “be careful what you wish for” scenarios for Turkish President Erdogan, because in his lust to recreate the Ottoman Empire ,he just might get removed. By isolating Erdogan on these issues, President Trump effectively left him naked to an alliance of his enemies
After President Trump talked to Kurdish General Mazloum Kobani Abdi, the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, President Trump then discussed the options available to President Erdogan. As a result of that conversation, Erdogan requested the U.S. mediate negotiations.
Erdogan’s request and acceptance happened immediately after President Trump signed an executive order [See Here] triggering the sanction authority of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin as leverage against Turkey.
That’s how President Donald Trump was able to finally remove U.S. troops from Syria and get us out of the quagmire created by Washington DC foreign policy.
The Federal Open Market Committee plans to taper its asset purchasing program by $30 billion per month. Starting in January, the central bank will begin buying $60 billion in bonds monthly, citing “inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market.”
As for interest rates, the Fed is considering as many as three rate hikes in 2020, followed by two additional hikes in 2024. This comes after the Fed artificially lowered rates to near zero for the longest amount of time in the history of the Federal Reserve.
“With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment,” the central bank stated. Unemployment reached a post-pandemic low of 4.2% last month, but nearly 7 million Americans are still unemployed. “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation,” the statement continued. Now, the central bank believes inflation will somehow reach 2.6% in 2020, with core inflation dropping to 2.7%.
The central bank sees reduced GDP growth this year, dropping the forecast to 5.5% from 5.9%. GDP in 2022 is now estimated to reach 4%, and 2.2% in 2023.
Inflation continued to surge, reaching 5.4% in September. Janet Yellen has never been right about anything and keeps calling this “transitory,” as if it will vanish in a few weeks. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, which is supposed to measure a basket of goods and services as well as energy and food costs, came in at 5.4% in September from a year earlier, well beyond expectations. However, our model was projecting a rise in inflation into 2021 which is 13 years up from the November 2008 low. It is interesting how the COVID restrictions with lockdowns came in on target with our computer’s forecast. Curious how events seem to fulfill the forecast when it is done by a computer rather than human judgment.
Nevertheless, as you can see from the chart, inflation has bounced on a month/month basis, but it has not yet reached the Downtrend Line. The long-term forecast beyond a mere decade projects the historical high will be due in 2034, which should exceed all previous highs. A month/month number above 1.05% will signal that inflation is breaking out, and we will indeed make all-time record highs going into 2034.
The numbers are out — 4.3 million people in the US quit their jobs in August. This is the largest number since 2000. The leading sector is hotels and restaurants. I have a friend who has a daughter who had two jobs. She worked as a waitress/bartender at night and at a health food store during the day. She was very industrious, to say the least, and quite impressive. However, she quit the health food job because they demanded a vaccine. She said the bar owner was going to impose a vaccine rule and more than 50% of the staff said they would quit.
Meanwhile, New York’s bars and restaurants are hurting for business because of the vaccine mandates. Our most honorable leaders, who are most likely taking money from Pfizer lobbyists worldwide, are realizing that resistance is not futile. You can mandate vaccines and pretend they are 100% safe, but the truth always surfaces. The people can bring down the entire system if they simply refuse to participate.
Many journalists are too busy selling Biden’s propaganda about the vaccines. The FDA admits there are risks, but they, in their sole discretion, announced they “believe” the benefits outweigh the risk without any explanation of the analysis or a single word of caution (e.g., if you have certain conditions, you should not take the vaccine) despite doing so for other vaccines. So while the press and the Biden Administration are ignoring the facts and the trend, this only raises the question: How much has Pfizer and Moderna paid you?
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2021 | Sundance | 249 Comments
I do not expect White House Spokesperson Jennifer Psaki to understand how her bosses policies are driving massive price increases; nor do I expect Psaki to understand economics and inflationary impacts. However, the scale of her false statements surrounding inflation are not just false, they are now dangerous.
Following the release of the consumer price index [SEE table 2], in her press briefing today, Jen Psaki outlined the White House perspective on inflation, and specifically the Fed claims surrounding “transitory inflation.”
In her statements today, Psaki referenced people comparing the prices of 2021 consumable goods to 2020 and 2019. [Video prompted below] Within the statements, the scale of falsity is off the charts. WATCH [Video at 19:00 to 22:42, prompted]
There is not one single thing about that three minute verbal exchange that is accurate. Fast turn consumable goods, groceries etc., did not drop in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic. Factually, all goods but especially consumable goods increased in price throughout the pandemic, because demand actually increased and the supply chains were unable to keep up.
Example. A loaf of bread at $2.50 in 2019, climbed to $3.00 in 2020. That price jumped again to $3.75 this year (2021) and will likely continue rising as monetary policy driven inflation continues devaluing our currency.
Even if, as Psaki claims, inflation slows down (not likely) – “decelerating inflation” does not mean declining prices; it means a slower rate of price increase. Stuff still costs more, it just costs more at a slower rate. Consumable goods will cost more in 2022 than they do this year. The 2022 loaf of bread likely to climb to $4.00; it will never return to the 2019 price of $2.50 because the dollar is worth less.
This massive inflation is a direct result of the multinational agenda of the Biden administration in combination with the spending spree. Inflation is a feature not a flaw, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID. The first group to admit what was obvious were banks, specifically Bank of America, because the monetary policy is the primary cause.
You might remember, when President Trump initiated tariffs against China (steel, aluminum and more), Southeast Asia (product specific), Europe (steel, aluminum and direct products), Canada (steel, aluminum, lumber and dairy specifics), the financial pundits screamed at the top of their lungs that consumer prices were going to skyrocket. They didn’t. CTH knew they wouldn’t because essentially those trading partners responded in the exact same way the U.S. did decades ago when the import/export dynamic was reversed.
Trump’s massive, and in some instances targeted, import tariffs against China, SE Asia, Canada and the EU not only did not increase prices, the prices of the goods in the U.S. actually dropped. Trump’s policies led the largest deflation in consumer prices in decades. At the same time, Trump’s domestic economic policies drove employment and wages higher than any time in the past forty years.
With Donald Trump’s policies, we were in an era where job growth was strong, wages were rising and consumer prices were falling. The net result was more disposable income for the middle class, more demand for stuff, and ultimately that’s why the U.S. economy was so strong.
♦Going Deep – To retain their position, China and the EU responded to U.S. tariffs by devaluing their currency as an offset to higher prices. It started with China, because their economy is so dependent on exports to the U.S.
China first started subsidizing the targeted sectors hit by tariffs. However, as the Chinese economy was under pressure, they stopped purchasing industrial products from the EU, that slowed the EU economy and made the impact of U.S. tariffs, later targeted in the EU direction, more impactful.
When China (total communist control over their banking system) devalued their currency to avoid Tariff price increase, it had an unusual effect. The cost of all Chinese imports dropped, not just on the tariff goods.
Imported stuff from China dropped in price at the same time the U.S. dollar was strong. This meant it took less dollars to import the same amount of Chinese goods; and those goods were at a lower price. As a result, we were importing deflation…. the exact opposite of what the financial pundits claimed would happen.
In response to a lessening of overall economic activity, the EU then followed the same approach as China. The EU was already facing pressure from the exit of the U.K. from the EU system; so, when the EU central banks started pumping money into their economy and offsetting with subsidies, they essentially devalued the euro. The outcome for U.S.-EU importers was the same as the outcome for U.S.-China importers. We began importing deflation from the EU side.
In the middle of this, there was a downside for U.S. exporters. With China and the EU devaluing their currency, the value of the dollar increased. This made purchases from the U.S. more expensive. U.S. companies who relied on exports (lots of agricultural industries and raw materials) took a hit from higher export prices. However, and this part is really interesting, it only made those companies more dependent on domestic sales for income. With less being exported, there was more product available in the U.S for domestic purchase…. this dynamic led to another predictable outcome, even lower prices for U.S. consumers.
From 2017 through early 2020, U.S. consumer prices were dropping. We were in a rare place where actual deflation was happening. Combine lower prices with higher wages, and you can easily see the strength within the U.S. economy.
For the rest of the world this seemed unfair, and indeed they cried foul – especially Canada. However, this was America First in action. Middle-class Americans were benefiting from a Trump reversal of 40 years of economic policies like those that created the rust belt.
Industries were investing in the U.S., and that provided leverage for Trump’s trade policies to have stronger influence. If you wanted access to this expanding market, those foreign companies needed to put their investment money into the U.S. and create even more U.S. jobs. This was an expanding economic spiral where Trump was creating more and more economic pies. Every sector of the U.S. economy was benefiting more, but the blue-collar working class was gaining the most benefit of all.
♦ REVERSE THIS… and you now understand where we are with inflation.
The JoeBama economic policies are exactly the reverse. The monetary policy that pumps money into into the U.S. economy, via COVID bailouts and ever-increasing federal spending, drops the value of the dollar and makes the dependency state worse.
With the FED pumping money into the U.S. system, the dollar value plummets. Now the value of the Chinese and EU currency increases. This means it costs more to import products, and that is the primary driver of price increases in consumer goods.
Simultaneously, a lower dollar value means cheaper exports for the massive multinational conglomerates who now control our farms and farming resources (Big AG and raw materials). China, SE Asia and even the EU purchase U.S. food and raw material at a lower price. That means less food and raw material in the U.S. which drives up prices for U.S. consumers.
It is a perfect storm. Higher costs for imported goods (durable goods) and higher costs for domestic consumable goods (food). Combine this dynamic with massive increases in energy costs from ideological Green New Deal policy, and that’s fuel on a fire of inflation.
Annualized inflation is now around 8 percent, and it will likely keep increasing in the short term. This is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result, consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually, this means household purchasing of durable goods drop because people have less disposable income.
Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result, real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.
This inflationary period will not stall out until the U.S. economy can recover from the massive amount of federal spending.
If the spending continues, the Fed keeps printing money. The dollar continues to be weakened. As a result the inflationary period continues. It is a spiral that can only be stopped if the policies are reversed…. and the only way to stop these insane policies is to get rid of the Wall Street democrats and republicans who are constructing them.
Tucker Carlson hit this point very well last night:
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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