Today, President Donald Trump heads back to Michigan for a speech at the Detroit Economic Club. The keynote address is scheduled to start at 2:00pm EDT, with RSBN providing coverage starting around noon. Livestream Links Below:
UPDATE: VIDEO ADDED
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RSBN YouTube Livestream – RSBN Rumble Livestream
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COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I find it incorrigible that everyone now claims recession when they have never predicted a recession before. That was clear from the video you had of Larry Summers, who admitted nobody could do that. It is very strange how you are the only person who has ever forecast recessions and new highs in markets when everyone was called the opposite. Even in August, you had these people clamoring for an emergency rate cut while you said it was a three-day plunge and a new high would follow.
I looked back, and even in your April 25, 2024 post, you said a recession would follow the ECM turn on May 7th. Nobody gives you credit. They all copy you. But without you, they have no forecast. They are stupid, for what you have done is essential for society. These people want to pretend they are something they are not.
They do not even understand what makes a recession unfold.
Thank you so much. I wish people would be honest and give you credit, for that is the only way to hope for what comes after 2032. All they do is plagiarize you.
Peter
REPLY: Sadly, what you are describing is human nature. We are a flawed species – tragic in so many ways, like a Greek play. We seem to cling to our expectations of a just and moral world when history records anything but morality. And Thraymachus basically said JUSTICE is always the same – the self-interest of those in power – JUST US is the real spelling.
We have Europe and South America censuring free speech because the LEFT does not believe in civilization; they only see their own self-interest. Their failure in life is caused by the success of others—never themselves. As a species, we seem to believe there is ethical meaning behind everything when we live in an unethical and meaningless world that bathes only in self-interest.
I understand what you mean. Only this model has projected booms, busts, and recessions decades in advance. We have to learn to live with the cycle. Pretending you called a recession from a gut feeling or just looking at US statistics is a joke. We are all in this together. The US cannot withstand a global recession. That is why I say we are all connected. When you have the Neocons threatening war on four fronts, China, Korea, Russia, and Iran, the future is colored with uncertainty. That results in the contraction of spending.
Then, inflation is set in motion by shortages and tax increases. Throw in Kamala’s taxation of unrealized gains and make it only the billionaires. They are then forced to see stock to pay the tax, and you create the biggest crash in history that wipes out people’s pensions. NOTHING takes place in isolation. NEVER do the Democrats ever once question their spending. They are Marxists and must constantly promise more, never less, and that necessitates endless tax increases that always reduce GDP.
When I was in high school history class, I had to read Galbraith’s The Great Crash. It was not until I came across a two-volume set of Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs that my eyes were pulled open. Nowhere in Galbraith’s book was there ever any mention of a 1931 Sovereign Debt Default because he was a Socialist, and the object of his book was to pin all the blame on corporations and the rich. He omitted everything that ever remotely pointed to the government as a cause. We should all own nothing, shut up, and be happy. Speak up, and today, you go to prison for Free Speech.
The conflict surfaced in my mind in high school. As I have said, in physics class they said nothing is random. Then in economics class, they said everything is random so government has the power to manipulate society and prevent recessions. That was a conflict to me that began my questioning of what I was being taught.
It is becoming painfully obvious schools are programming children for political agendas. This is very Stalinistic, for he, too, instructed children that the state was their parent and if their biological parents ever said anything against the state, they were to report them.
It has gotten far worse than when I was a kid. They were trying to brainwash us that the government is good and the corporate world is all evil. Today, that has gone into being gay, changing your gender, and not telling the parents like Stalin for the State is your parent. This is a movement to reduce the population to make Schwab, Gates, and Soros happy.
What does this all say? Today, if I had to start over, I would choose homeschooling.
(read Chapter on 1931)
Mike Morell was the Deputy CIA Director when the Benghazi attack happened under Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. {GO DEEP} Clinton and CIA Director Leon Panetta used Qatar to organize the sale of shoulder fired missiles to al-Qaeda in Libya. At the time of the Benghazi attack Ambassador Chris Stephens was working with the CIA in Eastern Libya trying to buy-back the missiles.
General David Petraeus became CIA Director shortly before the 9-11-12 Benghazi attack (Panetta moved to Defense Secretary) and had no risk from the previous missile sales as they took place before his tenure. This made Petraeus a risk.
After Benghazi, the Intelligence Community, supported by Mike Morell, quickly organized a removal operation to get rid of Petraeus using the blackmail they held over him from CBS correspondent Paula Broadwell.
Petraeus was threatened and eventually removed, Mike Morell took his place as Acting CIA Director to protect the CIA, Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta and the larger Obama administration, from the aftermath of the Benghazi mess.
After the cleanup operation was successful, Morell then went to work for Hillary Clinton and CBS. Morell is a deeply professional liar. He knows I watch him.
When working for Hillary Clinton in August of 2016, Mike Morell published the first outline of the Trump-Russia collusion conspiracy in the New York Times. It was all a lie; we all know it – no one ever held him to account.
Four years later, in the 2020 presidential election cycle Mike Morell did it again; this time organizing the 51 intelligence officers to claim the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation. Morell led this effort with the State Dept and CIA. Again, it was all a lie; we all know it – no one ever held him to account, and Mike Morell remains working for CBS to this day.
2024 is another presidential election year. The problem for the Intelligence Community (IC), is their prior lies have caught up with them. They cannot lie Biden back into office. The IC needs something else, something more severe. Something more dramatic. Mike Morell is now saying a terrorist attack is about to happen on USA soil. WATCH:
[TRANSCRIPT] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We’re joined now by former CIA Deputy Director, Mike Morell. He’s also our CBS News senior national security contributor. Good to have you here.
MIKE MORELL: Good to be here, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You just had that Foreign Affairs article that got all this attention, “The Terrorism Warning Lights are Blinking Red Again.” You compare the moment we are in now to what happened in the lead up to 9/11. And I want to play something FBI director Chris Wray said earlier this month.
[START SOUND ON TAPE]
FBI DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER WRAY: Our most immediate concern has been that individuals or small groups will draw a twisted inspiration from the events in the Middle East to carry out attacks here at home. But now, on top of that, increasingly concerning is the potential for a coordinated attack here in the homeland, not unlike the ISIS-K attack we saw at the Russia concert hall back in March.
[START END ON TAPE]
MARGARET BRENNAN: That’s chilling. The White House says the president is briefed regularly on threats. If that is true, do you think he’s doing enough?
MIKE MORELL: Hard for me to say whether he’s doing enough because a lot of what needs to be done we wouldn’t see publicly. What I would say is, I ran into a lot of current- former intelligence- current intelligence officers and current policymakers. After we published the article, the response was almost universal. And we’re glad you wrote this. It’s really important. I read that as maybe there’s a lack of sense of- of a sense of urgency here. And that’s really important.
MARGARET BRENNAN : A lack of sense of urgency among members of the public? Or the government?
MIKE MORELL: The administration. Yeah. And Congress, quite frankly. There needs to be a sense of urgency about this. And I think the American public needs to understand what the threat is. That’s why we called for a public congressional hearing just on the terrorist threats to the homeland. Right, not a hearing on threats broadly, but threats to the homeland. And then we need to hear what the administration is doing about this in a broad sense, right. Not the details, but in a broad sense.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, I asked the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Republican Mike Turner, about exactly your proposal, and he- he really kind of dismissed it. He said, Oh, we’ve covered that.
(CROSSTALK)
MIKE MORELL: He said- we already covered that. They haven’t.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right, he did call for the administration to declassify information. Our colleague, Sam Vinograd who ran vetting at the border for DHS, said basically that the information that feeds those vetting lists, the watch lists, is dependent on how much good intelligence is collected, and that has been under-resourced. Do you agree with that?
MIKE MORELL: I- I agree with that 100%. We’ve shifted resources from the counterterrorism community to the China community. Now, that’s understandable to some degree, it’s been significant. So I think there’s a cost to the intelligence we’re collecting. The vetting system beyond not having the information- the vetting system does not provide all of the information that the government has. There was just a DHS inspector general report that outlined all the problems with the vetting system. So it’s lack of information and it is the system itself.
MARGARET BRENNAN: That- and we have it on a graphic, the report said Customs and Border Protection could not access all federal data necessary to enable complete screening and vetting of non-citizens seeking admission into the United States. This is the government saying we can’t vet everyone properly.
MIKE MORELL: Right. And Customs and Border doesn’t have the technology, right? To even connect. There are all sorts of issues here that need to be resolved.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Mike Morell, stay with us. I have to take a break but there’s much more I want to talk to you about.
[COMMERCIAL BREAK]
MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to Face The Nation. We return now to our conversation with CBS News senior national security contributor, Mike Morell. Mike, I want to ask you about some video that CBS broadcasted earlier this week, 60 Minutes obtained it. It’s Saudi national Omar al-Bayoumi walking around the US Capitol back in 1999. We’re seeing that video now. It was shot within 90 days of the time when senior al Qaeda planners were deciding on 9/11 targets according to the FBI. At the time you were at the CIA. We know now the FBI identified this man, al-Bayoumi, as an intelligence operative with close ties to two of the 9/11 hijackers. But in that 9/11 commission report it said there was no credible evidence that he was a violent extremist or aided extremists. Now that you have seen this video, what do you think it reveals?
MIKE MORELL: No doubt in my mind, that it is a casing video, that it is a casing video for some sort of terrorist attack. Number one. Number two, pretty clear to me that al-Bayoumi was- was either working for al Qaeda, or was Al Qaeda. Did he know about the 9/11 attacks? Probably not. Did he know that the two individuals he was interacting with were 9/11 hijackers? Probably not. But- but no doubt in my mind that al Qaeda tasked him to do this casing video. The video is chilling. It’s chilling in terms of what he was- what he was videotaping, his narration over the top of it which- which is part what tells you it was a casing video. And his- his- his extremist comments. Let me just give you two examples, Margaret. On- on the casing part. At one point he says I will get over, he’s looking at the Washington Monument, I will get over there and I will report. I will report to you in detail what is there. He’s talking to somebody, right? He’s- and- and he’s talking about a plan–
MARGARET BRENNAN: — Not like a tourist would?
MIKE MORELL: Not like a tourist video. And then in terms of the extremism, he’s- he’s- he’s looking at the Capitol. And he says they say that our kids are demons. However, these are the demons, what he’s looking at.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So the FBI concluded he was not a threat. The 9/11 commission report concluded he was not a threat. You’re saying it’s clear he was Al Qaeda and living under the noses and examination of law enforcement undetected. He’s now living in Saudi Arabia as we speak. That’s pretty- that’s a pretty big oversight by US law enforcement and intelligence. Did the CIA know about this video?
MIKE MORELL: We did not. You know, I’m 99.9% confident that we did not have this video. I was the President’s briefer at the time. If somebody had shown me this video, I would have shown it to the President.
MARGARET BRENNAN: It was, as I understand it, UK officials- UK intelligence that scooped up this video?
MIKE MORELL: Yes, just so- so- so when he left the United States, he went to the UK. And after- after 9/11, the FBI discovered that he had signed- helped- helped- helped the two 9/11 hijackers get their first apartment. He- and the FBI learned that they learned that he was in the UK. So they go to the UK Government and they say- they share all this information. The British government arrests him, detains him, interrogates him, gets all this material. They say they provided it back to the FBI.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And it just stayed at the FBI.
MIKE MORELL: It looks- it looks that way.
MARGARET BRENNAN: A lot more to come on this including on 60 Minutes in the fall. Thank you so much for your analysis Mike Morell. We’ll be right back.
John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 book, ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,” argued aggregate demand was too volatile to be stable and would lead to inflation or recessions. His theory honed in on spending as a means of price control. Low aggregate demand, Keynes argues, would lead to high unemployment and stagflation. Government could intervene through fiscal policies to increase aggregate demand, as an example, increased government spending could tame inflation. Interest rates, according to Keynes, could also be modified to encourage spending and stimulate demand. So why are these theories failing miserably today?
To begin, the United States had a balanced budget when Keynes presented his theory. The government is now the biggest borrower, acting in its own self interest under Adam Smith’s theory of the invisible hand that Keynes spent his career attempting to deny. According to Keynes, “there is no self-correcting mechanism in a free market economy that automatically restores full employment.” He believed that the government could change the business cycle but arguably regretted this notion on his deathbed.
Keynesian economics gave the government the green light to manipulate the economy, or at least make numerous failed attempted to do so. There is that old joke about communism that you can vote your way in but must shoot your way out, seemingly fitting to the utter disaster governments have created in regards to our economic situation.
The government is by far the biggest borrower. Raising interest rates can have no impact on demand, as the government will simply borrow more, and the central banks simply have no say. During the Great Depression, for example, Washington forced the Federal Reserve to implement QE policies to artificially lower rates to increase demand. Yet, when Washington ordered the Federal Reserve to do the same during the Korean War in 1951, the central bank first broke with Washinton and refused to comply as it knew it would hurt the economy as America’s budget was no longer balanced.
Quantitative Easing destroyed the Keynesian model, and there is now no other alternative for central banks to control the economy. If they raise rates, the budget explodes. The Keynesians advocate manipulating demand and advocate fiscal spending that the central bank cannot control. However, the other part of Keynesianism is the manipulation of taxes. Keynes argued that to stimulate demand, you lower taxes. He saw this correctly, but again, it does not fit with government agendas.
There is no limit to what the government will spend with “money” that simply does not exist. Governments continue to borrow perpetually with no real intention of paying back their debts. This is one piece of the Sovereign Debt Crisis that will implode like a nuclear bomb the likes of which we have never witnessed. The business cycle cannot be manipulated, and what’s more, the Keynesian model cannot account for declining confidence in both government and the economy.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has advised against anticipating near-term rate cuts. While speaking to the Financial Times, the Fed president stated that people would simply prefer a recession to continued inflation.
“I have learned that the American people—and maybe people in Europe equally—really hate high inflation. I mean, really viscerally hate high inflation,” he told the Financial Times’ The Economics Show podcast. Kashkari is speaking as if we are not already in a recession. It is not difficult to understand the “visceral” hatred people around the world feel toward rising prices. The effects of inflation are felt with every purchase, causing the average person to adjust their entire lifestyle.
Vague issues such as rising unemployment or declining wages do not impact everyone. “I lose my job, I lean on my sister or my parents or my friends, and they help me through it. But high inflation affects everybody. There’s no one I can lean on for help because everyone in my network is experiencing the same thing I’m experiencing,” Kashkari explained. Mass layoffs, for example, would only impact a fragment of the overall population, and people would feel lucky simply to keep their jobs.
“In the US, GDP has been remarkably strong, very strong,” he noted. “The labor market has been resilient. Wage growth has been mostly resilient. And we’re seeing even the housing market has shown signs of resilience. So if I look at this resilience and economic activity, that does not look like an economy that is under pressure of very high, very tight monetary policy.” Yet, inflation is outpacing wage increases and people are watching their savings dwindle while spending less. The average person cares not of the health of the overall economy as they simply want to be able to continue maintaining or improving their standard of living. Most Americans, for example, do not invest and live paycheck to paycheck.
Real prices have far surpassed anything they calculate in CPI. Everyone understands that prices have risen far more than the arbitrary number the Fed provides us. Taxes are continually increasing for everyone in every tax bracket. The government not only adds to inflationary issues with their spending but then expects their citizens to foot a portion of the bill with taxes, which will simply never be enough.
Then we have Washington telling the masses to blame corporations for price gouging while raising their taxes and making it increasingly difficult to conduct business and maintain a large workforce. It is not that the people would prefer to be in a recession, the real issue is that countless people are entering survival mode. People everywhere want to hold onto whatever they may have out of fear for the future, but they are unable even to hoard as real prices now demand they hand over whatever they have to maintain their lives.
All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.
If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973, which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note that 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.
There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.
The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.
Consequently, when looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on the current system, he would focus on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.2% of the civil workforce, so we cannot follow K-Waves as the innovator intended.
All commodities, including gold, trade substantially differently than stocks or real estate. Pictured here is wheat back to 1200. Note that you see what appears to be a brain wave. Commodities trade differently because they are subject to nature. Manufactured items can be produced on a more regular basis. However, commodities are subject to weather, and even mining is subject to discovering supply.
Look at energy. The US was dependent on imports and was virtually self-sufficient from foreign production until Biden was appointed.
Here is wheat impacted during the Black Death. Two trends were clashing. There was a 50% drop in population, so demand dropped, but also there was a collapse in labor, so production declined. Prices rose because there was still a shortage of supply because land went vacant and that forced landlords to begin paying wages. There are always far more complicated trends involved in commodities.
War has also impacted commodities. But when gold was MONEY, it declined in purchasing power WITH inflation. When gold is a free market as present, it moves opposite to inflation because, yes, it too is then a commodity. Making gold money will NEVER prevent the cycles as illustrated above and it will decline in purchasing power with inflation that is in part driven by nature.
Consequently, even gold makes runs to the upside (bursts) that are largely catch-ups. It does not remain constant even against silver. Gold is the worst investment from an inflationary standpoint if you expect it to track inflation, for it does not and will not. Right now, we are in a cycle where CONFIDENCE has waned, and we will see gold rise with the stock market, but it trades far differently from stocks.
Cyclical analysis is all about defining WHEN such events will take place. Price is entirely a different aspect. The burst is just that – a rally that appears to come from nowhere playing catch-up because EVERYTHING has an international value.
The old idea that inflation is created by an increase in money supply has distorted the minds of many people. Inflation is caused by numerous factors for it is not a one-dimensional aspect. For example, say a bird flu has rendered half of the egg production to be worthless, which would send egg prices soaring. This would have nothing to do with the quantity of money. So, obviously, a decline in the supply of some service or commodity can also lead to rising prices. Supply and demand.
Then there can be cost-push inflation as we saw during the 1970s due to OPEC. The first OPEC price shock was October 1973 from where we should see the next low in 2016 (43 years later). The sudden rise in oil sent a shockwave through the economy, driving up prices because the entire economy had to readjust to higher energy. This was not the result of an increase in demand nor an increase in the money supply.
When gold was used for money during the 19th century, it fell sharply in value with each new discovery from California, Australia, and Alaska. Inflation rose because of a dramatic increase in the money supply, which is exactly what took place in Europe when Spain brought back ship after ship of gold from the New World. The sudden dramatic rise in the supply of money unleashed inflation, and during both periods, money (gold) failed to provide a store of value.
Steady, slow growth in the supply of money does not lead to inflationary waves. We find that major waves of inflation are often tied to waves of speculation, which differ with each wave moving from real estate, commodities, stocks, or bonds, constantly rotating over decades within a domestic economy and then this movement of capital takes place internationally.
Inflation is not a single one-dimensional aspect. It moves up and down between the rise and fall in the demand for private assets vs. hoarding and uncertainty.
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