Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Seasonal retail hiring may plummet to the lowest level since 2009. Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas expects retailers to add under 500,000 temporary positions in the final three months of the year, an 8% annual decline, and the smallest gain in 16 years. Retail depends on holiday Q4 sales for a bulk of annual revenue and the hiring trend is a glaring sign of a declining economy.
Certain retailers, like Target, stated that they plan to offer overtime hours to existing employees. Yet another sign of the times as people are eager for additional income and companies are not keen to take on additional employees.
A PwC survey from September 2025 indicates that the average person plans to spend 5% less this holiday season, down from $1,638 in 2024 to $1,552 per person. The survey has not indicated a drop in holiday sales since 2020. PwC’s figure translates to ~$413B–$460B total if scaled to ~266M adult consumers. Gen Z notably plans to spend 23% less this year as the cost of living has caused most young adults to live paycheck to paycheck, whereas boomers with sufficient savings plan to spend 5% more.
The National Retail Federation (NRF), however, predicts US retail sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion for the year. As for holiday spending, the NRF predicts a rise between 2.5% and 3.5% reaching a total between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.
Hiring trends in retail indicate that companies are less than optimistic about overall foot traffic this holiday season. Americans are spending more on less. Discretionary spending has been on the decline as inflation never meaningly waned.
Posted originally on CTH on September 28, 2025 | Sundance
FBI Director Kash Patel once again rises to defend the integrity of the institution he leads.
While Tweeting a link to a Fox News story quoting him, the FBI director says, “274 FBI agents were thrown into crowd control on Jan 6 against FBI standards. That failure was on corrupt leadership. Thanks to agents stepping up, the truth is coming out. Transparency. Justice. Accountability.”
Which begs the questions: 274 FBI plainclothes agents were going to do what, exactly?… How did the FBI know to have 274 agents “on hand” prepared to intervene? And where exactly is “on hand” located?
(VIA FOX NEWS) – The FBI responded on Saturday to a report that 274 plainclothes agents were at the U.S. Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, clarifying the role of bureau personnel while still blasting former Director Christopher Wray.
While the agents were on hand, they were sent in after the riot had begun to try to control the unruly crowd, officials told Fox News Digital. That is not the proper role of FBI agents, and Wray was not forthcoming about what happened when he testified numerous times on Capitol Hill, Director Kash Patel said.
“Agents were sent into a crowd control mission after the riot was declared by Metro Police – something that goes against FBI standards,” Patel told Fox News Digital. “This was the failure of a corrupt leadership that lied to Congress and to the American people about what really happened.”
He added, “Thanks to agents coming forward, we are now uncovering the truth. We are fully committed to transparency, and justice and accountability continues with this FBI.”
There’s no indication any FBI agents were involved in any events related to Trump’s speech on the morning of Jan. 6 at the Ellipse, an FBI official told Fox News Digital, adding that Wray should have disclosed that agents were there when he was asked by congressional leaders. (read more)
Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for your ground-breaking analysis. I was a gold-only bug, and you opened my eyes to capital flows, explaining that gold rises not due to inflation, but geopolitical tensions. You have been forewarned that when Europe is flirting with war, the capital will flee, and it will be on every boat to the USA. We have gold making new highs, and the Dow is also reaching new highs. Something the gold crowd always said the opposite. You said gold could test the $5,000 level due to war as soon as 2026, I believe. At the same time, others continue to claim that the stock market will crash and revise their forecasts with every new high.
I just wanted to say you are honestly making a difference. I know people steal your work and claim it as their own. I discovered some people created channels and pretend to be you on Telegram and elsewhere. I do not understand their game. You do not solicit money. I’m not sure if they are trying to ruin your reputation. I reported what I encountered to your staff.
I know you have more money than God because you don’t raise your prices, you don’t solicit money, and you don’t sell advertising.
Please do not get discouraged.
Cheers
FDS
REPLY: Thank you for bringing that to our attention. I am not sure what is going on with people pretending to be me. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY STOCK INDIVIDUALLY, AND I DO NOT MANAGE MONEY. If you want to know about an individual share that is on Socrates. Some funds trade based on Socrates, but sorry, – been there, done that. I am far too busy to manage money. I am honestly working seven days a week, from 7 AM to midnight, and I still can’t get ahead of the workload. Anyone pretending to be me, telling you to buy a specific stock or promising to manage your money, is a fraud. Let our staff know.
As far as the market is concerned, I will do a Private Post this week. There can be a brief correction in the share market after this week. But it still does not appear to be a major long-term bear market or crash. As far as gold is concerned, the key resistance is really $4500 for next year. Gold has to pass that, and then it would test the $5,000 level. Exceeding that level, the expectations will then jump to $10,000. It gets dicey after $5,000.
If I had more money than God, I suppose that means people wouldn’t contribute to any church.
Posted originally on CTH on September 24, 2025 | Sundance
UPDATE:According to CNN, “in a new letter addressed to attorney Christopher Mattei on Wednesday, Martin withdrew his initial letter entirely. In a brief note, according to a person familiar with the letter, Martin wrote that there is no investigation of Aldenberg and “because of this, I hereby withdraw my request for information from you or your former client.” {SOURCE}
As noted in the original outline below, it wasn’t particularly smart for Alex Jones to post the letter on his Twitter account. Without much doubt the Ed Martin retraction was due to this knuckleheaded move.
— Original Outline Below —
William “Bill” Aldenberg was the lead investigator for John Durham in 2020. Bill Aldenberg was also a plaintiff in the case against Alex Jones in the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting 2012, lawsuit and civil trial 2022.
According to a U.S. News and World Report article, “Aldenberg was among the law enforcement officers who responded to the school and found the dead children. That then led to years of abuse from people who believed the shooting was a hoax, he has said. His share of the judgment totaled around $120 million.”
Bill Aldenberg was the first witness in the 2022 case against InfoWars. Alex Jones and InfoWars lost the lawsuit and were punished by a $1.4 billion damage award to the plaintiffs. InfoWars filed bankruptcy and the arguments over liquidation of assets is underway in Texas.
Here’s where things get weird. We know the FBI was conducting an operation called “Arctic Frost,” essentially the targeting of Donald Trump and key figures who aligned with Trump in the aftermath of the 2020 election. {Citation}
It is widely suspected, the massive amount of evidence captured in the Arctic Frost operation, was eventually fed to the January 6th Committee for use in their expanded investigation. That evidence then underpinned the case against President Trump that was being assembled by Jack Smith. {Go Deep}
Essentially, operation Arctic Frost was the evidence gathering operation, then the J6 Committee and special counsel Jack Smith used the FBI evidence to frame their cases. [Readers will note, this process is similar to the FBI “Crossfire Hurricane” operation, which fed evidence to special counsel Robert Mueller, to frame their cases.]
Back to FBI Investigative Agent William Aldenberg, who was lead for John Durham.
DOJ attorney Ed Martin is looking at the connective tissue around all of the FBI targeting operations. He now asks the lawyers for William Aldenberg about details of their client’s involvement in the case against Alex Jones.
Alex Jones posted a copy of the letter on his Twitter [X] feed, along with a picture of him and Ed Martin. A rather knuckleheaded move by Jones considering how Ed Martin says in the letter he would prefer not to litigate the issue in the media. Then again, wisdom and sound judgement have never been Jones’ strong points.
Really, it’s a convoluted mess making the serious issues around Arctic Frost get lost in the weeds. Then again, perhaps that is a feature not a flaw. Many people, CTH included, view Alex Jones through the prism of compromise ever since the $1.4 billion sword of Damocles was established over his head.
(USN&WR) – […] Ed Martin Jr., who leads the Justice Department’s “weaponization working group,” asked in the letter whether retired agent William Aldenberg received any financial benefits from helping to organize the lawsuit, in which he was a plaintiff along with victims’ family members.
Aldenberg, like the parents and other relatives of the 20 children and six educators killed in the 2012 school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, has been the subject of false conspiracy theories spread by Jones on his “Infowars” broadcasts.
Aldenberg was among the law enforcement officers who responded to the school and found the dead children. That then led to years of abuse from people who believed the shooting was a hoax, he has said. His share of the judgment totaled around $120 million.
In a Sept. 15 letter to Christopher Mattei, a lawyer who represents Sandy Hook families, Martin suggested he was scrutinizing Aldenberg’s role in the lawsuit.
Mattei responded to the letter in a text message to The Associated Press.
“Thanks to the courage of the Sandy Hook families, Infowars will soon be finished,” he said, referring to the families’ efforts in court to liquidate Jones’ assets to help pay the judgment. “In his last gasps, Jones is once again harassing them, only now with the corrupt complicity of at least one DOJ official. It’s as disgusting as it is pathetic, and we will not stand for it.” (more)
Posted originally on CTH on September 24, 2025 | Sundance
I have continued to point out that Chad Mizelle was Rod Rosenstein’s chief legal counsel during the first term of President Trump. As Rosenstein’s legal counsel, it was Chad Mizelle who literally wrote the “scope memos” that authorized the appointment of Robert Mueller as special counsel to investigate President Trump.
Mizelle also wrote the expanded scope memos for Mueller and Andrew Weissmann that permitted the targeting of Michael Flynn Jr, Michael Flynn, George Papadopolous, Paul Manafort and more. Chad Mizelle would have intimate knowledge of Rosenstein’s intent to hire Robert Mueller, before, during and after the Special Counsel was appointed.
Because of everything above, Chad Mizelle was always looked at with strong suspicion. There is no way to intellectually reconcile Chad Mizelle as a good faith actor knowing the intents and purposes of Robert Mueller. It just didn’t make sense.
Subsequently, when Chad Mizelle was selected to guide Attorney General Pam Bondi through the nomination process as Attorney General we watched with concern. After the successful confirmation, Mizelle then took up position as AG Pam Bondi’s Chief of Staff.
[It should also be noted that Chad Mizelle is reported to be very close friends and allies with Stephen Miller. Yet, another irreconcilable aspect.]
On September 20th, President Trump sent a seemingly frustrated Truth Social message, outwardly questioning the slow to non-existent reality that Main Justice was not holding the bad actors within the Lawfare operation accountable.
Three days later, it is now reported that Chief of Staff Chad Mizelle is departing Main Justice.
WASHINGTON – Chad Mizelle will leave as chief of staff at the Department of Justice in the next few weeks to return to his family in Tampa, Axios has learned.
Mizelle, a key ally of White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, told us he’ll continue to support the Trump administration’s work, and plans to continue “exposing the left-wing groups responsible for violence across America.”
Bondi says Mizelle “served this Department with professionalism, sound judgment, and dedication. As Chief of Staff, Chad played a central role in coordinating the Department’s operations, ensuring its resources were aligned and our efforts were carried out with integrity and efficiency. His counsel strengthened our work to advance justice and protect the American people. I am grateful for his service and friendship.”
Todd Blanche, deputy attorney general, said: “Chad’s tenure at the Department has been marked by exceptional leadership and dedication to the Department. He provided Attorney General Bondi and all of us with outstanding counsel, and his steady hand helped guide our work. Chad played a key role in advancing the President’s America First agenda here at the Department, and his efforts strengthened our mission to protect the American people.” (link)
All of that may be true. However, it is also true that without Chad Mizelle there would never have been a Robert Mueller investigation and expanded scope memos for Andrew Weissmann.
Curious timing when contrast against President Trump’s statements a few days prior.
President Trump’s social media post: “Pam: I have reviewed over 30 statements and posts saying that, essentially, “same old story as last time, all talk, no action. Nothing is being done. What about Comey, Adam “Shifty” Schiff, Leticia??? They’re all guilty as hell, but nothing is going to be done.” Then we almost put in a Democrat supported U.S. Attorney, in Virginia, with a really bad Republican past. A Woke RINO, who was never going to do his job. That’s why two of the worst Dem Senators PUSHED him so hard. He even lied to the media and said he quit, and that we had no case. No, I fired him, and there is a GREAT CASE, and many lawyers, and legal pundits, say so. Lindsey Halligan is a really good lawyer, and likes you, a lot. We can’t delay any longer, it’s killing our reputation and credibility. They impeached me twice, and indicted me (5 times!), OVER NOTHING. JUSTICE MUST BE SERVED, NOW!!! President DJT“
Laura Loomer never had an issue with Chad Mizelle.
Posted originally on Sep 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Federal Reserve should operate independently of Washington. It does not. Stephan Miran was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by Donald Trump. Miran, who served as a top economic adviser to Trump and served as the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, switched from controlling fiscal to monetary policy and now the lines between Washington and the Fed are completely blurred.
Miran believes interest rates should eventually be cut in half. He mistakenly believes the old Keynesian theories that lower rates will result in higher employment. “The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses, and I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2 percent,” he said. “However, leaving policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed’s employment mandate.”
“The upshot is that monetary policy is well into restrictive territory,” he said. “Leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2 percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.”
I’ve explained numerous times why this line of thinking is flawed. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future. Not a single client has suggested that they were waiting for rates to drop to expand their business. Look what happened in Japan when they artificially lowered rates to zero for decades. The economy stagnated because confidence was lost.
The reason politicians love low rates is not to help the people but to help government. With the US national debt now spiraling out of control, every uptick in rates increases the cost of debt service. Trump knows this. Biden knew it too. Every administration eventually leans on the Fed to keep rates down because the alternative is insolvency.
Trump appointed Miran for a reason. Powell was unwilling to play into politics, but Miran, a voting member of the FOMC, is an installed loyalist who will ensure the government’s ability to borrow continues.
Posted originally on CTH on September 23, 2025 | Sundance
Tucker Carlson’s team have been investigating the events of 9/11. Today they release the first segment of a multi-phase docuseries.
A former FBI agent who was embedded in the CIA’s Bin Laden unit, Mark Rossini, claims the CIA was fully aware that the 9/11 hijackers were in the United States planning an attack. Rather than inform the FBI, the CIA tried to recruit two of the hijackers for a “false-flag” operation, which quickly spiraled out of control. The failed mission raises urgent questions about government secrecy, intelligence failures, and what really happened before 9/11.
Posted originally on CTH on September 23, 2025 | Sundance
The Democrats are threatening to refuse to support a stopgap spending measure to extend federal spending. President Trump is calling them out and refusing to meet with them until they get serious about it.
After passing a clean CR in the House, Republicans in the Senate are pushing a “clean” seven-week continuing resolution, which they say will buy time for more negotiations on full-year spending bills and possibly an extension of expiring health insurance subsidies. Democrats, meanwhile, wrote an alternative four-week punt that tacks on a laundry list of other demands, including a permanent extension of the insurance subsidies.
Should the government shut down, Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought will determine which elements and agencies of the government are considered essential and which will be shuttered until the budget is extended.
President Donald Trump– “After reviewing the details of the unserious and ridiculous demands being made by the Minority Radical Left Democrats in return for their Votes to keep our thriving Country open, I have decided that no meeting with their Congressional Leaders could possibly be productive.
They are threatening to shut down the Government of the United States unless they can have over $1 Trillion Dollars in new spending to continue free healthcare for Illegal Aliens (A monumental cost!), force Taxpayers to fund Transgender surgery for minors, have dead people on the Medicaid roles, allow Illegal Alien Criminals to steal Billions of Dollars in American Taxpayer Benefits, try to force our Country to again open our Borders to Criminals and to the World, allow men to play in women’s sports, and essentially create Transgender operations for everybody.”
“These Radical Left Views and Policies is what allowed me to win the Presidential Election, including all seven Swing States, and the Popular Vote, IN A HISTORIC LANDSLIDE. There are consequences to losing Elections but based on their letter to me, the Democrats haven’t figured that out yet. They are trying to eliminate the popular $50 Billion Dollar Rural and Vulnerable Hospital Fund, which was passed with only Republican Votes, and proudly signed into Law by ME.
The Democrats in Congress seem to have totally lost their way. They obviously have no idea what it means to put America First or to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! All Congressional Democrats want to do is enact Radical Left Policies that nobody voted for — High Taxes, Open Borders, No Consequences for Violent Criminals, Men in Women’s Sports, Taxpayer funded “TRANSGENDER” surgery, and much more. Few people voted for what they represent, which would lead to the destruction of America.
Instead, people voted for COMMON SENSE, and that’s what the Republicans and your President, “DONALD J. TRUMP,” stand for. I look forward to meeting with them if they get serious about the future of our Nation. We must keep the Government open and legislate like true Patriots rather than hold American Citizens hostage, knowing that they want our now thriving Country closed.
I’ll be happy to meet with them if they agree to the Principles in this Letter. They must do their job! Otherwise, it will just be another long and brutal slog through their radicalized quicksand. To the Leaders of the Democrat Party, the ball is in your court. I look forward to meeting with you when you become realistic about the things that our Country stands for. DO THE RIGHT THING!”
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America