Tag Archives: Obama Domestic policy

Dec 26 2015

The building Breakup of the EU!


Rising Separatist Movement in Corsica to Leave France & Riots Against Muslims

Re-Posted on December 26, 2015 by

Corsica

 

On December 5th, 2015, youth clashed with police in a separatist protest. This is the youth uprising – the lost generation that Socialism has turned into economic slaves. Some 500 young people responded to the call for Independence from France. This is a building movement which has picked up speed following the turning point of the Economic Confidence Model on September 30th and violent protests began on October 2nd, 2015. Youths began throwing stones and shooting flare guns clashing with police two days after the ECM in an attack which targeted a docked French customs boat in Corsica. This new shift post-ECM is calling for independence whereas pre-ECM it was primarily a trend of rising violence on the island which was a wave of labour strife.

The rising trend toward independence in Corsica took a new turn as demonstrators ransacked a Muslim prayer hall and set fire to copies of the Koran on Christmas Day. A reader from Corsica reports

 

Hi Mr Armstrong,

The situation keeps evolving in France. And it seems still in tune with Corsica.

Now Corsican regional government made it cristal clear that it sees things differently than the french government. The assembly president stated that “corsican is the language of Corsica”, responding to the french government who insists “french was the language of the french republic”.

As i said before, since the french revolution, the French State does not make a clear distinction between nationality/culture and citizenship. So, to be a “good citizen” means to become culturally french. Corsican are now able to openly question the definition framed 224 years ago, when the first french constitution was written (1791).

As you stated that 30th of december was a key date for the political trend, i noted that, in France, a powerful debate occured this very day after a former french minister, Nadine Morano, quoted Charles De Gaulle as defining the French people as a “white and christian nation”. I told myself that this meant it would be the frame of the political cycle from now on, i.e. “who is french ?”. The answer being a cultural / pre 1789 answer.

Following the massacres in Paris, the government wants to modify the constitution. Curiously, the socialist president decided he would include the possibility for a french born citizen who has another nationality to lose the french one. This is triggering a further debate about multiple nationalities, thus leading to crisis around the definition of the french nationality (jus sanguinis, jus solis).

Yesterday, muslims rioters attacked firemen in ajaccio (Corsica). They use to do it in France everywhere for Christmas and New Year. The corsican crowd reaction has been this : 300 peoples went to the near mosque and ruined it while calling for killing all the muslims. The slogans were “Arabi for” (“Arabs out” in corsican) and a call for national corsican unity.

It seems that the French Revolution ideals are completely falling apart : rise in french nationalist sentiment, separatism on an ethnic base, both fueled by anti-muslim reactions.

Dec 26 2015

A Fundamental Truth is that no government ever tells the truth!


What Is Said Publicly & Privately Differ – Here Comes 2017

Re-Posted on December 26, 2015 by

yellen-Janet

QUESTION: Marty, you know which bank I am at. You also know the Fed has been going around warning banks that their models are wrong and they will not see a flight to quality being the 30 year bonds. Yet Yellen seems to also say she does not believe in inevitable cycles. They are saying one thing publicly and another behind the curtain. Are you sure they are not attending your conferences covertly?

ANSWER: Other central banks are open as to who they are when they attend, which did surprise me. I believe that there are people within the central banks who are looking at our work, especially since the Bank of China came out publicly and stated they are using capital flow analysis which we invented. Yellen’s statement is political:

I think it’s a myth that expansions die of old age. I do not think that they die of old age. So the fact that this has been quite a long expansion doesn’t lead me to believe that it’s one that has, that its days are numbered. But the economy does get hit by shocks, and they were both positive shocks and negative shocks.

She will not come out and say there is a business cycle for it is a presumption, as Larry Summers noted, that if you admit there is a cycle it creates one. People who have no trading experience cannot see the real forces behind the business cycle. Nevertheless, I would not take what she says publicly seriously. Just in October, the IMF began warning that the core G7 economies had experienced a very weak recovery which risked turning into near stagnation after cutting its global economic growth forecast for the fourth successive year, as reported in the Guardian. The IMF is warning that if the Fed raised rates, they will set off a new financial crisis because of other indebted countries.

Yellen’s statement is a public one and not one which should be taken seriously. Summers’ simply admits he is incapable of doing any forecasting. His original proposal to move interest rates negative demonstrates that the guy knows nothing about how the economy functions for all he looks at is the bankers. What about the savers or the elderly whose retirement he has destroyed? What about the pension funds he has wiped out? The high-yield hedge funds going belly-up is all part of this inability to forecast. They assume that the trend in motion will remain in motion and not die of old age.

Rediscovery-Of-Business-Cycle.jpg (427×627)

Paul Volcker wrote:

The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle – is a sign of the times. Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, the ‘New Economics’ had become orthodoxy. Its basic tenet, repeated in similar words in speech after speech, in article after article, was described by one of its leaders as ‘the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment.

 

So do not take whatever Yellen says publicly very seriously. She cannot speak freely any more than you can (working for a bank). If you work in a bank or government, you cannot speak freely for whatever statement you make is attributed to the whole.

QE-r

The recovery is extremely weak. The Fed had to raise rates because Larry Summers is dead wrong. The Fed can see that negative interest rates have FAILED to work. Even QE has not worked in Japan or Europe. This alone proved that the idea of increasing money supply will cause hyperinflation. This totally misread what took place during the German hyperinflation. They failed to realize the new government previously defaulted of all debt which wiped out savings, banks, and pensions. They printed money because that was all that was left. It was the symptom rather than the cause.

USA Net Cap 1960-1990 Annotated

There is no CONFIDENCE and it is being killed with taxes. As we approach 2017, those in power have only sought to maintain their power. They are raising taxes and enforcing taxes to the point where they are reversing everything that made the world economy function post-World War II. It was the free flow of capital that reconstructed the world. This is the very thing that governments are shutting down for taxes. We are now officially driving in reverse.

Budget Crisis 2917

This is the government’s own forecast for the budget crisis. 2017 will be the year from hell all around the globe.

Dec 24 2015

Oil and war a great mix!


Evil People in High Places? Or Just Coincidence?

Re-Posted on December 24, 2015 by

Genie Oil & Gas

Former Vice President Cheney speaks on National Security Policy in WashingtonDick Cheney is best know for being the head of Halliburton who then became Vice President who moved his office directly in the White House and ran the government as the “shadow president” because Bush, Jr. couldn’t even figure out he was holding a book upside down. Cheney started the Iraq War and then made sure Haliburton ran the show. When Congress was going to investigate the conflict of interest, Halliburton resigned its American citizenship and moved to Dubai to end any investigation.

Howard S. Jonas (b 1956) graduated from Harvard in  1978. He understands the game and is founder of the Newark, New Jersey-based oil and gas group Genie Oil & Gas which owns leaseholds both in the USA and Israel for shale oil deposits. He is estimated to sit atop 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the U.S. and 40 billion barrels in Israel. Added together, these shale oil reserves actually make Saudi Arabia’s proven reserves.look minuscule.

Jonas has brought in to his Strategic Advisory Board to secure influence Dick Cheney “shadow president” of the USA, James Woolsey a neo-con former CIA Director under Bill Clinton, Bill Richardson is a former US Secretary of Energy, Jacob Lord Rothschild who is also a major investor in energy, Rupert Murdock who also is a major financier of the neo-conservative Weekly Standard of Bill Kristol, Larry Summers, who was US Treasury Secretary and helped Rubin draft the laws that deregulated US banks overturning Glass-Steagall, and Michael Steinhardt who is a major hedge fund manager and a serious philanthropic friend of Israel. Genie Energy was granted in 2013 the exclusive oil and gas exploration rights to a 153-square mile radius in the southern part of the Golan Heights by the Netanyahu government. The players are all in the game of a company most people have never heard of no less from Newark, New Jersey.

 

Golan_Heights_Map

Genie Energy, confirmed that it has discovered oil and gas in this occupied territory held by Israel on the Golan Heights, which is formally the territory of guess who – Syria. So while the pipeline issue we reported was the real reason behind Obama wanting to invade Syria, we now have to also add to this mix Israel. Genie Energy needed a very influential Strategic Advisory Board because this is occupied territory becoming to Syria. The announcement of the discovery took place October 11th, 2015. We also have Russia starting to bomb US trained forced destined to overthrow Syria. This was the announcement of Genie.

“Preliminary evidence from the exploratory wells drilled by its Afek subsidiary in Northern Israel confirms the existence of significant quantities of oil and gas within its exploratory license area,” Genie said in a statement, but added that it does not yet have sufficient evidence to determine whether this or any part of the resource can be “technically or economically produced.”

CRUDE-Y 12-24-2015

This entire cauldron in the Middle East is shaping up to be World War III but it is over energy. It all began right to the day of the Economic Confidence Model on September 30th, 2015. The public announcement of Genie was October 11th. That means the results were already known Behind the Curtain going into September 30th. These people need a war in their mind to get oil prices back up. If oil closes in the States above $35, then we are NOT getting that long-term bear market signal. We need a closing BELOW $32.20 to negate a bull market. A closing for 2015 ABOVE. 

This is not a Christmas message I cared to write. Oil will be VERY CRITICAL as a signal for 2016 because we also have the War Cycle moving higher into 2017.

Dec 22 2015

Alternative money an interesting concept!


Alternative Currencies of the Great Depression

Re-Posted on December 22, 2015 by

Worgl-Freigeld1

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, have you ever heard of a short lived Wörgl Experiment in Austria? It was shut down by the Austrian Central Bank they say because it was successful. Have you looked into this experiment they claim defied deflation and inflation?

LongBranchNJ-DepressionScrip

ANSWER: Yes. This was by no means an isolated instance. True, it was touted as the “Miracle of Wörgl” during the Great Depression. The very similar “experiment” took place in the United States with over 200 cities also issuing their own currency. You have to understand the dynamics of the period. This was the very age of AUSTERITY where the assumption was the collapse was a lack of confidence in government so they increased tax collection and cut spending unleashing both deflation and a dwindling money supply. This led many cities to create their own money due to the lack of money in circulation also impacted by hoarding.

The Wörgl Experiment began on July 31, 1932, the very month that the Dow Jones bottomed. The experiment involved issuing of “Certified Compensation Bills”, which was a form of local currency known as Scrip generally, or Freigeld. The monetary theories of the economist Silvio Gesell were applied by the town’s then-mayor, Michael Unterguggenberger. What differed with Gesell’s idea was that the currency would expire. Believe it or not, there are some government’s looking into currency which expires. Europe since World War II issued currency which expired roughly every 10 years. This forced people to bring out the old currency to be swapped and thus prevent hoarding.

The central part of Gesell’s idea was how to stop HOARDING of money. This is why FDR also confiscated gold. He too saw the problem of people hoarding money and not spending it. This is part of every economic decline. If there is no CONFIDENCE in the future, people save more. This is simply human.

Money-Assets

Nevertheless, the Wörgl Experiment resulted in a growth in employment largely because you had to use the money. This allowed the local government projects could all be completed, which many called a miracle for it appeared to defy the depression in the rest of the country. Inflation and deflation are also reputed to have been non-existent for the duration of the experiment. But this was simply the result of money expiring so there was no purpose in hoarding “money” shifting it back to “asset” appreciation as in a hyperinflation.

Despite the appearance of success, the Wörgl Experiment was terminated by the Austrian National Bank on the September 1, 1933.

Dec 21 2015

Capital flows into the US are Coming!


The Move to America — the Great Capital Migration

Re-Posted on December 21, 2015 by

CapInflow-USA

Something very interesting is unfolding. Included in the new year-end spending bill was a waiver of the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA), which had been implemented during the late 1980s when the Japanese were buying everything. They claimed to have focused on buying U.S. farmland, but it also applied to buying trophy U.S. property like Rockefeller Center in New York City.

This position has been reversed in the new year-end spending package. While some attribute this to a grand conspiracy, giving far more credit to those in Congress and in the White House than they deserve, our sources simply tell the plain story of lobbying to allow foreign buyers, who are supporting the real estate market in key areas, to purchase properties. Especially after London basically kicked every foreigner out of town by telling them their money was not welcomed, and with lightning speed they instantly turned to New York City.

High properties, even in Florida, are being sold to the Chinese largely in cash deals whereas Canadians are buying the greatest number of properties. The lobbying has been from the real estate and banking industry who see a market they want to service. Slipped into the $1.1 trillion spending measure, which was passed to avoid a government shutdown, were tax breaks for Americans that simultaneously treats foreign pension funds the same as Americans. There has been lobbying from foreign pension funds because they see no hope in Europe and have been pleading for permission to enter the U.S. market in a big way. For the first time this provision waives the tax imposed on foreign investors under FIRPTA.

10-bills

This is perfectly in line with our cyclical models because the DOLLAR has become the world reserve currency for real and by default. The dollar bears, who keep claiming it will crash, are looking only domestically. They have no peripheral vision and thus remain blind to the trend globally. They may sell stocks, assuming lower oil means more deflation. What if they are wrong?

Dec 19 2015

A “collapse” in the asset markets is likely in the first quarter of 2016.


Commodity-Based Countries to Liquidate Wealth Funds & Gold

Re-Posted on December 19, 2015 by

Stop-Loss

QUESTION: Marty, at the Berlin cocktail party you said we may yet see gold sales from oil producing countries if oil breaks your yearly number of $35 for year end and gold closes below 1044 or so I think. You said gold could then reach that $——- level you mentioned in the conference. It looks like that is happening. Socrates on the monthly level is now warning of a possible Waterfall Event in gold. Are we seeing the risk of official gold sales from Russia, Norway and Saudi Arabia?

Thanks for a spectacular conference.

PD

ANSWER: Yes. We got the rate hike. A stronger dollar is still on the agenda, and yes, I warned we could get that waterfall in commodities for the first quarter, particularly in oil. The continuing collapse of oil prices under $35 for year-end will bring tremendous distress to several countries. Cash-strapped governments are looking at substantially lower revenue from oil and they are likely to liquidate positions in gold and in their sovereign wealth funds. They will draw down cash from gold and a portion of their funds to close budget gaps.

Gold produces zero income and costs money to store while the yields on wealth funds currently produce way too little to compensate for the deficits. This crisis, in turn, could cause several nations to liquidate portions of their funds to sell off gold to raise cash. It would appear that the selling will be in debt markets more so than stocks. They will focus on declining asset values like gold and bonds more so than U.S. equities. When they get into a real jam, it becomes whatever they can sell to raise cash irrespective of the fundamentals.

Dec 19 2015

This problem will affect all of the EU and America!


Romanian Private Debt Crisis Erupting

Posted on December 19, 2015 by

BNRomania

COMMENT: Dear Mr. Armstrong,

Dear Mr. Armstrong,

What you wrote concerning the possible repeated start of the banks collapse from Austria, once again, is right. The biggest lenders in Romania are some Austrian banks, among some Greek ones which are already in a coma.

A new law has been passed and violent attack started from banks, including the National Bank of Romania. Today, 4 European mother-banks having subsidiary in Romania appealed an threaten with lawsuits in a letter addressed to the Romanian President, asking/demanding him not to endorse this law. My guess is they are Erste, Raiffeisen, Societe Generale (French) and either Alpha Bank (Greek) or UniCredit.
One IMF Director met one week ago with the Romanian President but agenda was not disclosed – guess what…

Pressure and lobby is huge. If this law is promoulged, banks are quite in shit, cause the estimated no of families who’ll give back homes to banks is 30 -100 000.
If not, President’s career and image goes in the toilet – so it comes political instability and next year are scheduled local and general elections.
Best Regards,
AI

REPLY: The crisis throughout Eastern Europe has been selling mortgages in Swiss francs without disclosing the currency risk. This law, passed by the Romanian Parliament, is actually fair. The banks would have to take back the property and end the debt. That is how Caesar resolved the debt crisis, for then too the bankers would not accept property and would take the borrower’s children and sell them into slavery to pay off the debt.

Romania’s National Bank (BNR) has asked President Klaus Iohannis to send back to the Parliament the recently approved law, which defines making payment on a mortgage by allowing the mortgage debtors to hand back to banks the mortgaged assets to terminate the debt. The bankers want no risk and will screw the people every time. This law is fair as the banks sold mortgages without guidance.

Money-Assets

The bankers are demanding that Parliament amend the bill based on a financial, legal, and ethical perspective to their benefit without acknowledging the issue. What is not understood here is that at the moment a loan is given, the bank values the property to be in balance with the value of money. When the value of money rises (DEFLATION) then assets decline. The same amount of money might even buy two houses. This is an economic gain for the lender and a loss for the debtor.

The bankers warn that this will affect even local banks’ financial stability. Local bankers say that the law violates the constitution and that it will bring them big losses and limit access to financing. The rumor is that Parliament will review the law and limit it to loans under €250,000, according to political sources.

This is the paradox of the business cycle. It needs to be examined and understood for this has often resulted in civil unrest and revolution.

Dec 18 2015

Obama is doing the same to America and he has almost eliminated the State and Local governments already.


EU using the Refugees to Federalize Europe

Posted on December 18, 2015 by

Europe is failing and what is going on has been to press down upon the neck of Europe with more undemocratic authoritarian measures to maintain the jobs in Brussels. What Hitler and Napoleon could not accomplish, the EU Parliament has done with lies and stealth maneuvers behind the curtain supported by the press. When 2017 arrives, this will be the shot heard around the world. This may mark really the end of Western Democracy. Before, people could flee Europe to the new land – America. Where do we go this time? Those who would rule the world have taken control of governments forcing according through the United Nations and G20.

Dec 17 2015

Denmark to Confiscate Wealth from “Refugees” Entering the Country


The Danes are trading the confiscated wealth, if any, for their women’s virtue — not a good deal for the women. But then politicians will sell their mother for a a tax increase!

Dec 17 2015

Everything has cycles!


Economists do not Try to Forecast the Business Cycle

Re-Posted on December 17, 2015 by

 

QUESTION: Marty, it was fantastic to meet you in Berlin and the conference really opened my eyes. Can’t wait for the sneak preview of the Trader level in Socrates. The Investor level is amazing providing a long-term outlook written by the computer. Your staff said the computer was writing daily trading reports in the Eighties, but you never told people it was the computer back then.

This brings me to the Bloomberg interview of Larry Summers who was still arguing against a rate hike before yesterday. The interesting point was his admission that economists cannot  forecast the business cycle as you said at the conference. Why do they not even try and then hold up the silver cross and hope you go away?

BR

ANSWER: Traditional Economics is incapable of forecasting for to start with, economists have no real world experience. It takes a trader to even see that there are patterns with markets and by no means are they some random walk if you use technical analysis, Elliott Wave, Gann, or whatever. Each type of analysis, other than fundamental, begins with the realization that this is not some random walk of a drug through the park. That theory of Random Walk was developed to explain their inability to forecast. You might as well say who knows if the sun will appear tomorrow, it is too complex to try to figure out how the havens move. There are too many planets and stars to track.

Observatory-2

All the turning points in the Economic Confidence Model which it has forecast in my lifetime alone, even to the precise day, demonstrates that there is no such thing as a random walk. Yes there is complexity masquerading as chaos within which there are definitive patterns. Even the Maya discovered time. They studied the heavens as did the Babylonians. Economists seems to be unable to observe patterns and then claim anyone who does must be the devil. This is illustrating that social sciences, even if you dare call them a science, are living in the Dark Ages and you burn at the stake alive anyone who disagrees.

Keep in mind that if you can forecast the economy, then you alter politics. How can politicians run for office vowing to alter the future if they cannot manipulate the business cycle? Communism and socialism have failed because they attempted to alter human nature to manipulate the business cycle. Most modern Economists all accept as a general rule that they can manipulate society and the economy. Therein lies their self-interest and this is why they do not even want to examine what we have revealed exists. I do not care if we are not 100% correct. Being better than 50/50 consistently is impossible as pure luck or coincidence..

As for the pretense that 100% of the people would make reality take place if you could forecast is absurd because they would all act the same. The evidence of proper management is the story of Joseph from the Bible warning the Pharaoh there will be 7 years of plenty and 7 years of drought.There will always be two forces as in politics. This is an excuse why not to try. If we assume there will always be plenty and no cycle, then we are plain stupid as a society.

ECO-1895-MA

Some schools are starting to teach the Economic Confidence Model. It is the way to the future.