Wilbur Ross Hits Canada With Soft Wood Import Tariff…


How do you get congress to accept the NAFTA notification of intent letter? Why, you backstop the Canadian decision to undermine U.S. dairy farm exports by applying equity import tariffs and offsetting losses to U.S. manufacturers.

First stop, lumber mills. ie U.S. regional impacts, not coincidentally, represented by key Democrat constituents.

The congressional delegations from Washington State and Oregon happen to be mostly elected Democrats; and they happen to applaud the efforts; which means they are not able to criticize the approach. Hmm, it’s almost as if Wilburine and POTUS had a strategy or something.   Nah, couldn’t be.

(Via CNN) These are the first tariffs imposed by President Trump, who during his election campaign threatened to use them on imports from both China and Mexico. The decision on Monday is bound to lead to a standoff and could stoke fears of a trade war between the US and Canada, two of the world’s largest trade powers.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the tariffs, or taxes, announced Monday evening were being imposed after trade talks on dairy products fell through.

“It has been a bad week for US-Canada trade relations,” Ross said in a statement. Trump’s tariffs come as the US, Canada and Mexico prepare to renegotiate NAFTA, the free trade agreement among the three countries that came into being in 1994. Trump has directed almost all of his NAFTA criticism at Mexico, which makes this decision even more surprising.

When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited Trump in February, Trump said he only expected to be “tweaking” the US-Canada trade relationship.

The tariffs — also called duties — ranged from 3% to 24% on specifically five Canadian lumber companies. For all other Canadian lumber companies, there’s a nearly 20% duty imposed on exports to the US.

The five firms were: West Fraser Mills, Tolko Marketing and Sales, J.D. Irving, Canfor Corporation, and Resolute FP Canada. West Fraser Mills will pay the highest duty of 24%.

The duties were imposed to create a level playing field for American lumber companies.

U.S. lumber companies allege Canadian firms are provided with unfair subsidies by the Canadian government.

Canadian exports of softwood lumber to the U.S. were valued at $5.6 billion last year, according to the Commerce Department.

The Commerce Department said the duties are preliminary and a final determination will be made in September. The U.S. Lumber Coalition, which represents the industry, said the duties will likely take effect starting sometime next week. The Commerce Department wasn’t available to clarify. (read more)

REACTION: Senator Ron Wyden (Democrat-Oregon.), the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, applauded the Commerce Department’s decision.

“Unfairly traded softwood lumber from Canada has for decades hurt mill towns and American millworkers in Oregon and across the country,” Wyden said.

“Today’s announcement sends the message that help is on the way,” he said. (link)

The Fate of the Euro


Albert Einstein We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.

QUESTION: The bounce in the Euro is a fool’s’ game?

ANSWER: Absolutely. The Euro is doomed because especially if Le Pen loses, Brussels will be relieved and proceed as usual. The same problems will merely exist and no reform will come forward to save the day. A good wind will blow over the European banking system. You are expecting politicians to admit they were wrong and surrender power in Brussels. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. As Einstein said, you will NEVER solve the problem of the Euro with the same thinking process.

IBEUUS-M 4-24-2017

As weekly closing above the 10860 level in the Euro will imply the rally will press high to test the 112-114 level. Just look at the technical perspective on a monthly level. The Downtrend Line stands in May up at 12622. We are nowhere near reversing the trend in the Euro.

We have the French, British, and then German elections here in 2017. We do not expect total chaos before 2018. That seems to be the point of a major shift.

If US Election Were Held today – Trump Would Get More Votes Polls Show


Trump Sworn In

The latest polls show that most people who voted for Trump are satisfied. When the same questions have been asking about Hillary, the opposite response appears. The polls are actually showing that Trump would win a greater margin today than last year. This is interesting for it is confirming the collapse in government with Big Bang that began on October 1st, 2015.

BIG BANG ECM 2015.75

Big Bang was the start of the collapse in confidence in government. This cycle should intensify starting in 2018 running head long into 2020. This is all good for the volatility in markets we see ahead. This is the same trend that produced BREXIT and just wiped out all mainstream parties in France.

A $20 Gold Coin that Saved a Life


confederate submaribe George Dixon gold coin

A story that a sweetheart gave a Confederate soldier George Dixon a $20 gold coin dated 1860 as a good luck charm has been validated. The story was that George kept the coin with him always, in his pocket, as good luck. During the Battle of Shiloh, George was shot point blank. The bullet struck in his pocket hitting the center of the gold coin. The impact was said to have left the gold piece bent, with the bullet embedded in it which saved his life.

Confederate submarine H.L. Hunley

George’s luck, however, did not last forever. Nearly 150 years ago, the Confederate submarine H.L. Hunley, the first ever in history, failed to return to port after its successful maiden mission. The sunken submarine was discovered in 2015 off the waters of South Carolina where it sunk in 1864.

Confederate submarine

The propulsion was simply men turning a crank. A pole on the front was designed to ram explosives into enemy ships. Therefore, the sub had to actually make contact. The poll placed a powder charge into the Union warship Housatonic and sunk her, but the Hunley went down with its eight man crew and never returned on February 17th 1864.

The archaeologists also found inside the submarine one bent gold coin that was carried by the sub’s captain, Lieutenant George Dixon, for good luck. The legend was proven true. The $20 gold coin saved his life one time.

Raising Highway Speeding Tickets to 175% of Your Weekly Income


British Speed Trap

A word to the wise. Any American traveling to Europe, you are better off hiring a limo driver or call Uber than drive yourself. In Europe, they have speed cameras everywhere. If you are 1 KM over the speed limit in Switzerland, the camera goes off and you have a fine. It’s not like America where even on an interstate highway with a 65 mph limit, traffic typically moves at 80 mph and police will start to look at you over 80. Local municipalities are different. Some of them are so broke they make up stuff.

In Europe, they fine you using cameras, which are also illegal in the USA. You have a right to confrontation and a camera cannot testify against you in court. Those state who adopted the red light cameras used them for revenue, but you would not get any points on your license because they too were unconstitutional.

The Europeans are simply totally insane. They fine you in proportion to what you can pay. In Britain, they are setting this at 175% of the weekly wage. So if you were a CEO earning $25 million a year, your fine will be $841,346.

In 2010, motorcycle was clocked at 164 mph. They let him keep his license if he paid $12k to Canadian authorities for speeding ticket. Then there is Finland which also adjusts speeding ticket fees based on the driver’s annual income. One driver caught doing a measly 15 over in a 50 mph zone and since he made about $7mil a year, his speeding ticket was almost $60K.

There was the Nokia phone director Anssi Vanjoki who was rising his Harley-Davidson in Helsinki, Finland and got tagged going 47 mph in a 31 mph zone. They fined him €116k. Straight out of the Communist Manifesto, in 2004, a 27-year-old heir to his family’s sausage business was hit with a with a $217k ticket for going 50 mph in a 25 mph.

Then there was the Swiss millionaire speeding at 85 mph in a 50 mph zone. The court said his net worth was $22.7m and since he had a previous speeding ticket, the court fined him $290,000. Yet even this is not the record for speeding tickets. The Swiss are simply really out worshiping Marx. A Swedish driver in a Mercedes-Benz SLR in Switzerland got caught going 186 mph. He was fined €650,000, which back in 2010, was $1 million.

Making fined based upon income is definitely the ultimate Marxist agenda. Worse yet, you are being caught by a camera and need not even be chased like in some Hollywood Movie like the Fast And Furious.

If You Can’t Reform – Just Blow The Budget Completely Apart


Students-1

You really have to wonder how politicians ever come to these ideas that they have a right to discriminate and suppress anyone based solely upon what material things they possess. In France, the left is running to take 90% from the rich and hand it to everyone else. Why should they continue to invest, take risks, or even work for that matter. I would close up shop and just leave.

In February, the city of San Francisco came up with a new “free college” plan for city residents that included an added stipend for books and travel expenses. Of course, it was by no means “free” because they were raising taxes in the city to pay for it.

In Europe where education is free, kids keep going to school collecting degrees because (1) its free, (2) they cannot find a job, and (3) who wants to work and pay taxes? The education is really indoctrination and nobody ever learned how to actually do something from a school. Even doctors have to do an internship actually doing the job to get into the door.

Well now the state of New York has joined the socialist agenda of Marx and on April 9th, the N.Y. legislature passed “The Excelsior Scholarship” bill to grant free public college to state residents. On April 13th, N.Y. Governor Andrew Cuomo signed it into law.

The N.Y. college tuition of any state resident whose family earns up to $100,000 a year prior to the fall semester this year, $110,000 in the fall of 2018, and $125,000 in 2019 will be eligible. They have adopted the communist system where once you earned your free degree, you had to work for the state. Here, New York required that the student must stay in New York for four years after they graduate. If you cannot find a job in New York and there is one in California, sorry – you can’t take it.

Interesting regulations.

Latest Interview with Martin Armstrong


OMB Director Mick Mulvaney Discusses The Pending Economic Policy Confrontation…


Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney appears on Bloomberg News to discuss the seismic, epic, thundershock confrontational clash that is about to take place between the Trump administration and the DC UniParty.

There are no adjectives capable of describing the scope and immeasurable scale of the battle that is about to transpire between the White House and the Democrat/Republican UniParty.

MONEY is where every entity within the full-swamp goes nuclear against President Trump and the administration.  Despite all prior discussions toward this end, it is doubtful that more than one-in-a-million people can fully grasp the dynamic at play.

Because the procedural wonk is so inherently riddled with ten thousand tentacles of political schematics, I will defray the wonk-speak until after the video.

.

If you are interested in deep political weeds, keep reading. However, if you have blood pressure issues or are concerned about your physical or mental health, STOP HERE and go enjoy life. Believe me.

From a political perspective the outline of the assembled enemy forces are evident.  Next week former President Obama is scheduled to reappear in Chicago.  This is not coincidental.  There are trillions of dollars at stake.

Every vested financial interest has been, and is now, prepared to do battle against President Trump.  All of the body blows from the media, including their professional gaslighting efforts, was merely to soften Trump up for the pending attacks.

All of the previous accusations, ridicule, marginalization, probes and diminishment efforts by the media and their multinational corporate entities will pale in comparison to what lies ahead.

If you listen to Mulvaney carefully, and accept that the UniParty apparatus is real and purposeful, then you can see the scope of the financial strategy coming from DC.  Remember, the BIG CLUB has paid for legislative policy.  They will not allow those payments to be non-reciprocated, all of the DC politicians are now commissioned to fight without limits or rules on their behalf.

BIG CLUB: ♦Retention of ObamaCare. ♦Deep Federal Spending. ♦NO border wall. ♦Open-ended immigration until congress delivers comprehensive immigration reform to include amnesty. ♦Tax Cuts (corporate revenue enhancements).

♦House Speaker Paul Ryan will use the budgetary rules process, as a backdoor, to leverage the U.S. CoC Lobbyists construct of the Border Adjustment Tax (BAT).

♦No-one paid by the Big Club in Washington DC will willingly support the Border Wall.

Think about what Director Mulvaney is saying in the video above.   Mulvaney is highlighting the point that tax/budget will either use the reconciliation process, or not – depending on the opposition and depending on the support.

Any budget can pass the house with a simple majority, the Republicans have full control.

However, when the budget reaches the Senate if they are going to use “reconciliation” (simple majority/republicans only) the budget must be revenue neutral beyond 10 years – if the tax plan/budget is going to be permanent.

If the Tax-Plan/Budget delivered to the Senate is not deemed revenue neutral (scored by CBO) beyond 10 years, it cannot be permanent and use the reconciliation process (simple majority).   Such a plan must contain a sunset provision or an expiration date.

A permanent tax plan/budget that is: not deficit neutral, and beyond the 10 year scope, will require support from more than just 52 republican senators to pass; because it will mean long-term deficit spending.

Here’s where the FUBAR of the UniParty comes into play.  This is not a Democrat -vs- White House issue.

President Trump cannot present a balanced budget with drastic cuts to government, because UniParty republicans will not support it.  They, along with Democrats, will demand more spending.

Most of those same UniParty republicans are already opposed to the border wall.  They view funding for the border wall as a negotiation tool to keep the federal government spending on other facets.   President Trump cannot fund the wall, and simultaneously fund their big government spending indulgences without deficit spending.

Enter Paul Ryan.

Ryan will propose this Border Adjustment Tax, a program Trump hates, as the revenue tool to provide the funding for the tax/budget that contains the border wall funding.

See how that works?

[U.S. CoC and Ryan ] – The U.S. CoC get their B.A.T, which is essentially a tax against consumers allowing big corporations to fatten their bottom line, by forcing Trump to give up his border wall or go along with their proposal.

Wait, you ask: …what about renegotiated trade deals with (Mexico) via NAFTA that will, essentially, provide the revenue that more than pays for the wall?

Great question.  Yes, the renegotiated NAFTA deals would easily provide the treasury revenue that will offset any wall expenditures.

However, now you understand why congress is refusing to accept the NAFTA “letter of intent” from Commerce Secretary Ross.  The republican UniParty congress is blocking, well, actually they are ‘strategically delaying‘, Wilbur Ross from renegotiating the trade deal with Mexico – and by doing so they are blocking the revenue that would undermine their tax/budget scheme and argument in favor of the B.A.T.

Remember, accepting the letter of intent triggers the start of a 90-day waiting period before Ross can open NAFTA.   Congress is waiting to accept, until the end of the 90-day period falls AFTER October 1st 2017, the beginning of Fiscal Year 2018.

This UniParty approach robs the White House from using the anticipated Mexican money as a point of reference (political talking point) for the current tax and budget proposals which begin October 1st for fiscal year 2018.  (The B.A.T also impacts the possibility of a greater economic trade deal with Mexico from the tax side.)

See how that works?

[Hence, the blood pressure warnings]

This is not a Democrat party working against the White House.  This is a republican UniParty working against the White House.

Speaker Ryan is positioning funding for the border wall contingent upon Trump accepting the blanket B.A.T as revenue to pay for it.  This is the position of the Lobbyists within the U.S. CoC. If Ryan wins we are all screwed because essentially the tax revenue will be on our backs for every product imported and exported.   But the big corporations love the enhancements to their bottom lines.

OMB Director Mick Mulvaney is trying to position and protect President Trump from having to accept the B.A.T. because the BAT is antithetical to the economic trade policy, targeted tariff approach, President Trump wants to take.

Simultaneously, Mulvaney is trying to get President Trump the initial start up money for the Border Wall so he doesn’t have to accept Ryan’s BAT.

Ergo Mick Mulvaney is trying to draw in Democrat votes to offset the scheme of Ryan which is relying only upon Republican votes.  If Mulvaney can get Democrats to vote for funding the border wall by giving them funding to continue ObamaCare, Mulvaney won’t need Ryan’s BAT revenue because he’ll have votes to support a deficit bill.

However, Democrats don’t want the border wall either; but they also don’t want ObamaCare to collapse earlier due to funding shortages within the insurance reimbursement program (cost share programs).

FUBAR.

When challenged about the UniParty, it always helps to remind and re-emphasize to people that Republicans in congress (House and Senate – ’10 through ’16) fully funded all of Obama’s policies and programs.

President Trump: “I do not see a role in Libya”…


During a press conference yesterday with Italian President Gentiloni, President Trump was asked about the future U.S. role Libya.

QUESTION:  President Trump, do you see a role for your administration in helping stabilizing Libya?  And do you agree that stabilizing Libya means combating terrorism and ISIS?

PRESIDENT TRUMP:  “I do not see a role in Libya.  I think the United States has right now enough roles.  We’re in a role everywhere.  So I do not see that.  I do see a role in getting rid of ISIS.  We’re being very effective in that regard.  We are doing a job, with respect to ISIS, that has not been done anywhere near the numbers that we’re producing right now.  It’s a very effective force we have.  We have no choice.  It’s a horrible thing to say, but we have no choice.  And we are effectively ridding the world of ISIS.  I see that as a primary role, and that’s what we’re going to do, whether it’s in Iraq or in Libya or anywhere else.  And that role will come to an end at a certain point, and we’ll be able to go back home and rebuild our country, which is what I want to do.”

[Transcript]

President Trump is taking the smart and strategic approach toward Libya having previously discussed the North African country extensively with President al-Sisi of neighboring Egypt.

The smart play is for the U.S. to maintain diplomatic relationships with Libya, while supporting Egypt and al-Sisi’s position of influence.  Libya’s factional and tribal government is still missing the core elements needed for success – a stable central figure with broad moderate following.

History has shown that injecting U.S. opinion toward a centralized government that exists without leadership only brings a worse outcome.

Like Syria, Libya is a tribal nation with diverse ideological and regional perspectives.  If there isn’t an existing structure of regional representation when the dictator is removed chaos is the outcome.   However, once regional representative leaders are established, the bottom up approach can work better to find a unifying central figure.

That’s also the goal in Syria.

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Egypt Releases American Aide Worker After President Trump Request…


President Donald Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi began a diplomatic friendship in September ’16 before the U.S. election.  Two weeks ago President al-Sisi visited the White House and both leaders warmly praised the relationship established.

[…] “I fully trust the capabilities of President Trump … he can succeed in so many fields that others cannot. I trust him wholeheartedly.”…

~ Eqyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi

As a gesture of the shift in relationship between the U.S. and Egypt, and at the request of President Trump, President al-Sisi’s administration released two imprisoned aide workers.  They arrived back in the U.S. late last night.

Maintaining a diplomatic approach, President Trump speaks little about the event except to express appreciation for the release.

(Via WaPo) […] President Trump and his aides worked for several weeks with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi to secure the freedom of Aya Hijazi, 30, a U.S. citizen, as well as her husband, Mohamed Hassanein, who is Egyptian, and four other humanitarian workers. Trump dispatched a U.S. government aircraft to Cairo to bring Hijazi and her family to Washington.

[…]  The Obama administration unsuccessfully pressed Sissi’s government for their release. It was not until Trump moved to reset U.S. relations with Egypt by embracing Sissi at the White House on April 3 — he publicly hailed the autocrat’s leadership as “fantastic” and offered the U.S. government’s “strong backing” — that Egypt’s posture changed. Last Sunday, a court in Cairo dropped all charges against Hijazi and the others. (read more)