Airlines Industry is Out of Control


The incident of beating and dragging a passenger from United Airlines so United Employees can get a seat is just an example of how abusive the entire airline industry has become. United’s own pilots have come out to object to the incident. They sent a public letter which claimed that the incident occurred on one of United’s “contracted Express carriers, separately owned and operated by Republic Airline.” As a result, all flight crew and cabin crew on Flight 3411 were not United employees, and according to the union, should not be blamed for what happened.

Furthermore, they express their belief that the incident was entirely due to the “grossly inappropriate response by the Chicago Department of Aviation,” and that all “social media” should be directed at them. The mend dragging and beating the passenger were government police officers of the Chicago Department of Aviation. This feeds directly into police brutality because some police feel they are above the law and are rarely ever prosecuted.

Nevertheless, airlines frequently change schedules, or have their flights delayed or cancelled for a number of reasons. When the airlines change plans, passengers are usually offered little (if any) compensation, but when travelers must change or cancel their own reservations, huge fees can apply. If you want to change a ticket, they demand $200.

Yet the huge consumer fraud they get away with and would be criminal in any other industry is the simple fact that often half the price of the ticket is really taxes. You forfeit the entire fare but they are then pocketing the taxes. If a story sold you something and then offered a refund at least that did not include the sale tax, that would be criminal fraud. They are charging people taxes for something they do not send to the government.

The Airline Industry has had Congress in their back pocket now for the past two decades. They live beyond the law and are protected by Congress. The attitude of the people removing this doctor beating him for refusing to “volunteer” to get off the plane is really outrageous.

Once upon a time, Airlines competed. They gave perks to win your loyalty. Now they act like a monopoly fixing prices and change fees. I bought a first class ticket to the Bahamas because international first class tickets you could always change. A storm was coming so I decided to leave early. I called American and they said oh that $200 to change. When I said this is a first class ticket, the response was basically so what. That only applies internationally. When I asked since when was Bahamas part of the USA? They said that the Caribbean does not count.

Personally, I will always fly a non-US carrier overseas. The attitude of American carriers is basically screw you, what are you going to do? Congress protects us!

Well this time, the passenger is entitle to punitive damages and everyone involved, including United Airlines, will be writing checks into the millions. Those men who beat the passenger should lose their jobs and criminally prosecuted just like anyone else.

Armstrong On Why Cycles Exist


GC1868-D

QUESTION: I was listening to a podcast on Bloomberg interviewing Peter Borsch who I remember you know for the two of you were together on a cycle research board and he worked for Paul Tudor Jones who handed me a copy of the Greatest Bull Market you wrote back in 1986. That was my introduction to you. On this show they were talking about cycles and the two people mentioned were you and Dewey. If you could boil down the reason for cycles, what would you say? What made you explore cycles to begin with?

Toast-of-NYANSWER: Western culture is prejudiced for we think everything is a straight line. My introduction to cycles was actually in high school. The teacher brought in a movie we were to watch in class the Toast of New York. This was about the Jim Fisk manipulation of gold in 1869. In the movie they said gold reached $162. I thought that was just Hollywood. It bothered me so I was compelled to go to the library and look it up in the newspapers on film back then. Low and behold, there it was the quote of $162. I knew gold was $35. Suddenly the world was not a straight line (I highly recommend watching this movie).

This was the movie that changed my life. I did not read about Kondratieff or Dewey or anyone else. They were never mentioned in school. So I came at this totally fresh and unbiased by anyone else. I began writing about cycles in the 1970s. As I did, after discovering the Economic Confidence Model, many people responded overwhelmingly positive. A professor from the military school, the Citadel, called me and said I was a modern-day Hegel. He asked me if they could teach the ECM at the Citadel. I said of course. Hegel had influenced Marx  for Hegel saw two opposing forces, but argued that a third conclusion would emerge from a thesis and antithesis producing a synthesis.

bulls-bearsWhile I agreed with Hegel in the existence of two opposing forces, I disagreed that a synthesis of the two will always emerge. My study of history revealed that the common denominator was human nature and that never changes over the centuries so there is no synthesis of a Utopian state as Marx believed based upon Hegel – only one side dominates the other for brief periods of time until the pendulum swings back to the opposing side. History repeats, indeed, but the actors change. If you simply study the cause and effect, you will see that this pattern repeats regardless of the century.

What I studied about cycles and the various people who were also attracted to the subject matter came after I had explored on my own. I could see we came to similar conclusions, but from different perspectives, which was good. I have put together a comprehensive review of everyone who has contributed to the field and from different perspectives.

Einsteing-dice

In physics class, the professor would say nothing was random. Then you went to economics and the professor would say everything is random so don’t bother to try to figure out the business cycle because it’s just a random walk through the park of a drunk.

Raise Your Arm

Cycles exist because there MUST always be two opposing forces in everything. We are awake by day sleep by night (most of us anyhow). Hold your hand straight up in the air. No problem for most. Now keep it there. You will suddenly see that you run out of energy. Your arm will feel so heavy you can no longer keep it in the air.

This is why markets cannot go up forever nor down forever. Markets will always reach that maximum point of energy being expended in each direction. This is true even in things like fashion. Women’s skirts go up and down and men’s ties and lapels get wide and then narrow. Human nature is fickle.

AtomicStructureAnyone who only forecasts a given market will always rise like gold or the stock market must go down, do not understand cycles and how these two opposing forces propel everything in the universe. How gravity keeps the planets revolving, how our solar system is revolving within the milky way, and how it takes 25,800 years to return to the same point in time. Just look at the structure of an atom. You see the same structure in the universe. There is a fundamental design that everything in the universe complies with or else it would be random chaos. This is the blueprint to everything. Even you heart beats to a cycle. How do they tell you are dead? There is no more cyclical activity in your brain.

Ying-Yang

There must always be two opposing forces; good & evil, night & day, male & female, left & right, plus and minus, sun & moon … etc, etc. There is no absolute right and wrong that can be maintained. This is why you cannot write a law to change human nature. You can outlaw prostitution and drugs, but you cannot eradicate it. All you do is subsidize such activity making it tax free because it goes underground. You will never change human nature this is also why career politicians can never be honest – impossible.

Einsteing-thinking

As long as Western culture continues to see the world only in a linear fashion, then we will never understand the future. Politics relies upon linear thinking. They promise vote for them and they will change the future in some manner typically engaging in class warfare. Politicians cannot solve any problem, for they are the source of all problems. The West thinks linearly so we will NEVER solve a problem, merely repeat it. We do not teach how to think, we teach what to think. This is why A students work for C students and B students work for government.

Geography of ThoughtRichard E. Nesbett wrote a good book entitled “The Geography of Thought, How Asians and Westerners Think Differently … and why.” He attributed his work to a Chinese student who said: “You know, the difference between you and me is that I think the world is a Circle, and you think it’s a line.” He goes on to quote him:

“The Chinese believe in constant change, but with things always moving back to some prior state. They pay attention to wide range of events; they search for relationships between things; and they think you can’t understand the part without understanding the whole. Westerners live in a simpler, more deterministic world; they focus on salient objects or people instead of the larger picture; and they think they can control events because they know the rules that govern the behavior of objects.”

Horse With BlindersWhat I am trying to do with this blog is open your mind to see the entire world around you. This is how to be a successful hedge fund manager. Stop being a horse with blinders. There is a big world around you. You have to see the world in its entirety or else you will fail.

This is what it takes (1) to be a real hedge fund manager, and (2) a successful trade

Floating Cities – Can They Escape Taxes & Crime


Floating Cities

Floating cities in the sea are getting closer to reality at the Seasteading Institute. Futurists are already thinking about the founding of cities on the high seas. While the original argument was all about when population growth would make land so scarce we would have to move to the oceans, they never counted on cycles. The population figures are on the decline and the standard of living has declined and taxes have soared. There are many of America’s young adults who now appear to be in no hurry to move out of their old bedrooms. For the first time on record, living with parents is now the most common arrangement for people ages 18 to 34. The stunning proportion of older millennials — those ages 25 to 34 — are still living at home and has reached its highest point on record at 19% based upon the latest census data. This is also a death sentence for the socialist system which was based upon a Ponzi Scheme of taking money from an ever increasing population to pay for the retire costs of the previous which was always smaller. With just under 20% of millennials living at home, the population growth have plummeted.  Japan has a real problem. Its population is just over 127 million and the new births are just 1 million annually. The Japanese have been forced to turn to developing robots to replace workers.

Taxes have been increasing disproportionately. It’s official. Canadians now spend more on taxes than they do on food, housing, and clothing. Simple correlations show that the higher the taxes, the lower the birth rate. The seriousness of what socialism has altered is not even being considered yet. With hindsight, we will probably look back on this period of Marxism as China was forced to look back upon the one-child law that resulted in only boys being born.

Historically, you had large families because that was your social security, the kids took care of their parents. This trend has been negated by Marxism. With the dawn of “socialism” in the 1930’s, the birth rate has declined in the West because government was there to take care of you so you didn’t need the family structure. Children were not responsible, that was the state’s job.

The idea of Malthus that population would continually grow exponentially like rabbits in a Fibonacci sequence, has just proven to be nonsense. Fibonacci by no means negates cycles. So what about future cities on the high seas? Another idea that has materialized was taking a cruise ship and turning it into condos. The idea was if you lived on a ship would be tax free. Government quickly jumped on that one because the ship still had to be registered to a country and based upon that flag, they wanted taxes.

Tahiti Blue Frontiers

Living on the water may be more attractive. They even have the First Tahitian Seasteading Gathering in May. If you can build your own island then you do not need a flag and you can escape taxes. However, you would become a prisoner without a national flag that gives you a passport to travel. Of course, there is always the possibility that would might not want to travel and hide out until the world becomes sane once again.

Sotheby Auction in Hong Kong Sells Pink Diamond for $71.2 million


Pink Diamond

Sotheby’s auctioned a stunning 59.6 carat diamond known as the “Pink Star” which sold for $71.2 million in Hong Kong. This set a new world record for any diamond or jewel ever sold. This was an oval mixed-cut diamond which exceeded the previous records. The gemstone was sold at an even higher price at another Sotheby’s auction in Geneva, but the buyer could not come up with the money they say because of taxes.  The gem is the largest flawless fancy vivid pink diamond ever graded by the Gemological Institute of America. This shows that the market is shifting to Asia and taxation is helping to move things right along as per our model.

Using Postage Stamps for Money


PostageCurrency-5c

QUESTION: Martin, how would stamps be involved in a cashless society?  Could they be utilized as a paper currency at least domestically?  Stamp books used in place of dollar bills.

ANSWER: Historically postage stamps have served as money during the American Civil War. This was the Postage Currency. They needed metal for weapons so there was a shortage of coins. They issued Postage Currency that was backed by a postage stamp. Keep in mind there was no internet, emails, or SMS.

10c-EncasedPostage

Postage stamps were also being encased privately to serve as coins to make change.

mackerelI would not presume you want to stockpile millions of dollars worth of stamps for barter. As long as the government does not collapse and the Postal System is still functioning, then probably books of stamps will provide a medium of exchange. In prisons they used stamps for they could sell them for a discount to outside buyers. They also used cigarettes and when they were banned, they moved to packets of fish. In prison, there was a cashless society that functioned using such mediums of exchange.

However, if the crisis we face is the collapse of government, because they cannot pay their own pensions and it will reach a point when they can no longer extract taxes, then that becomes the tipping point. In that event, postage stamps would be worthless. Probably the packets of Mackerel would work as they do in prison. Everyone has to eat. I prefer tuna though.

Why Real Estate Should NEVER be the Majority of Your Portfolio


PopulationOfRome

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I believe you may be the only person who has identified this trend in government others are just starting to see. Here in New Brunswick in Canada, they have raised everyone’s property taxes claiming you did some sort of improvement when you did not. This is just fraud. You are correct. This just has to go completely bust.

HW

REPLY: Yes, I am aware of what they did. The government is fabricating tax increases based upon renovations that never took place. One woman they simply took the money out of her account sending her into overdraft conditions when they claimed she did $79,780 in renovations to her tiny 860 square foot home when no work was ever done.

Governments are going bust everywhere. This system of government pretending to represent the people when they act more like paying the Mafia for protection. In this case, you have to pay the government or else they take your home. You have no right to simply retire and die in peace. They tax you until you are dead and then demand taxes from your estate. We have all become simply economic serfs working for the landlord and we own nothing for they have the right to take everything if we cannot afford to pay what they demand. In this case, they just pretend you did something and send you a bill.

This is why I rank property in the last category for investment. It should NEVER be everything. It is not movable. The population of Rome collapsed from 180AD because taxes kept rising and people were just forced to walk away. History does repeat so caution is advisable with real estate. We need a place to call home. It should not be 100% of your assets. It should be limited to a portion of your portfolio that you can afford to walk away from and survive.

It’s a shame government turns so aggressively against its people. They are always the great destroyer of civilization.

SAC Capital Advisors Different Type of Inside-Trading


SAC Capital Advisors LP

SAC Capital, formerly known as Sirius Asia Capital, in Singapore was founded in 2004. It began as a corporate finance firm specializing in IPOs and corporate advisory. There has been some confusion that a different SAC Capital Advisors was located in Stamford, Connecticut and New York City while its legal headquarters was incorporated offshore in Anguilla, British West Indies – not the USA. The SAC Capital in Singapore is not associated with the Steven Cohen operation that was criminally charged by the US authorities for inside trading. SAC’s criminal guilty plea in New York has nothing to do with the SAC Capital in Singapore. We apologize for any confusion between the two unrelated firms.

SAC Capital Advisors’ $1.2 billion criminal settlement for insider trading received of course the court approval from U.S. District Judge Laura Taylor Swain of the Southern District of New York, who typically just rubber stamp whatever the Justice Department tells them to do. This is the hedge fund firm run by billionaire Steven A. Cohen who paid a $900 million fine and in total $1.8 billion to settle criminal and civil claims.

This insider-trading probe stretched back to 2007. SAC Capital Advisors changed its name to Point72 Asset Management LP. The government ensnared eight current or former employees through guilty pleas and trial convictions. Cohen, however, was not personally charged and denied any wrongdoing.

The government extorted a very sizable monetary fine out of the culmination of all our efforts, which has no relation to the actual harm. As part of the plea deal, the firm agreed to manage money mainly for Cohen. This was a prosecution of former US Ass. Attorney Preet Bharara of the SDNY who refused to resign and forced Trump to fire him to get more publicity.

The theory of this case was that middle-men put company insiders together with traders to provide industry insight. This was a new theory of modern-day market manipulation. The FBI was using wiretaps and surveillance measures they typically have used in Mafia cases or drug cases against Wall Street. However, they still miraculously avoid the bankers. Once the Federal government charges anyone, it is hopeless for the judges only rule in the government’s favor and the conviction rate exceed 98.5% in New York so there really is no defense. In Mafia cases, an FBI agent will take the stand and say in his experience the word “pizza” or “fish” or anything, is a “code word” and it mean a kilo of some drug. So a wiretap that says “pick up a pizza” is a buy for a kilo of heroine. Juries always believe the government so it does not matter what you say – anything you say can be used as a “code” word for something.

In the case of Frank Quatrone at First Boston, a single email “clean up those files” becomes obstruction of justice. Naturally, if this were used against the New York Bankers, they would all be away. These tactics are only used against the fringe of Wall Street or anyone who dare to compete against New York City such as Refco in Chicago or First Boston.

Bharara called SAC “a veritable magnet for market cheaters” when he announced the indictment. He claimed that the insider-trading scheme dated back to 1999, spanned more than a decade and involved at least 20 public companies. He also declared, “When so many people from a single hedge fund have engaged in insider trading, it is not a coincidence.” Bharara continued: “It is, instead, the predictable product of substantial and pervasive institutional failure.”

Cohen’s firm managed about $11.9 billion in assets. So a fine to a hedge fund of $1.8 billion is a huge amount. Those who claimed that Bharara was tough on Wall Street, should look closer. Not a single NY Bank was ever charged even after pleading guilty to many events over decades and have never lost any license.

Deutsche Marks Still Being Hoarded as Hedge Against Euro


100 Deutschemarl

It may sound crazy that an old currency is still being hoarded 16 years after the introduction of the euro. However, the Germans still have been hoarding Deutsche Marks and coins worth some 6.5 billion euros. Why? Germany never put a time limit upon when you had to swap out the old currency. About a third of old currency notes of the Eurozone are now totally worthless. Portugal gave the shortest exchange period to its citizens of the country – just one year.

Looking at the total amount of notes outstanding from all Eurozone members, it reaches about 15 billion euros. Even the French are hoarding about 1.8 billion euros worth of old French francs and the Spanish are hoarding about around 1.6 billion euros worth of old Spanish pesetas.

Interesting how many people just held on to the old currencies just in case. You never know!

Turkey to Confiscate Gold in New Clever Way – To Help Citizens Earn Money


Gold 400 oz Bars

 

emogin smile haloThe dwindling credit of Turkey and significant decline in its currency, has led to the new clever idea of confiscating gold with a smile. The Turkish Central Bank has come up with an idea of how to confiscate private gold while pretending they are helping you earn more money. Their objective is to make the private gold stocks of the citizens available to the financial system for themselves, but how to sell that to the people?.

The Turkish central bank is launching two new investment opportunities for physical gold, according to reports in the Daily Sabah . They are issuing a gold bond on one hand and on the other an instrument for the loan of gold and gold jewelry.

The scheme is that the Turkish government is really seeking to use the precious metal in the private sector making it available to the financial industry. This is being marketed as broadening the financial system allowing citizens to earn additional income with their gold reserves under their mattresses by turning it over to the government. They are pitching that this will stimulate the economy according to Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek .

What the government is really doing with issuing a gold bond that will pay you interest for using your gold. They are promising to pay a certain interest rate during the term of the bond in Turkish lira. This interest rate will be oriented towards the development of the gold price. The gold-covered loan certificate also entitles the holder to receive interest after physical gold or gold jewelry has been deposited with the intermediary bank.

This clever scheme means that the government cannot borrow internationally, so it now wants to confiscate people’s gold using a bond scheme that in the end they will be forced to default. This will be a major test of the saying: You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time*.

Australian Tax Authorities on the Hunt


Rio Tinto

The hunt for taxes has also been targeting international companies and arguing that the local operation in their country should pay more in taxes. One example is Rio Tinto (ASX, LON:RIO), the world’s second-biggest miner by market value. The Australian government handed them a A$447 million tax bill increasing a tax assessment in the new clever attack scheme known as “transfer pricing” between Rio Tinto’s Australian operations and its Singapore office. The amount breaks down as A$379 million plus interest of A$68 million for the calendar years 2010 to 2013.

What government fails to comprehend is that they are destroying the world economy because they make promises they cannot keep and just keep raising taxes with no end in site. They put at risk jobs everywhere and the higher the taxes, the lower the GDP. This is why it all just has to go bust because they are locked into this agenda and will not reform. Government simply looks at the immediate needs with no comprehension of the future. They do not rationally look at the problem as to why they constantly need a larger and larger portion of the GDP to maintain themselves. This is what historically results in revolution. They pass the point of no return.

The only way to bring this point home is to lay-off all workers until the tax bill is settled. Then they will see that there is a cost to raising and hunting taxes. But even that probably would not work. Governments are simply out of control.