Quarterly vs Semi-Annual Earnings Reports


Posted originally on Sep 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Balance Sheet

President Donald Trump believes that companies should cease reporting on a quarterly basis and switch to semiannual reports instead. Trump said that the concept is “subject to SEC approval” and would “save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.”

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett also once voiced support for semiannual reporting. “In our experience, quarterly earnings guidance often leads to an unhealthy focus on short-term profits at the expense of long-term strategy, growth and sustainability,” the pair wrote in an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal in 2018.

The SEC currently has a 3-1 Republican voting majority, but why does this seem to be a bipartisan issue? The issue is global, in fact, as Norway’s sovereign wealth fund recently proposed switching to semiannual reporting, and the UK and Europe do not currently require quarterly reports. Providing the consumer and investor with less, infrequent information alludes to bad news. Companies would willingly share praise of quarterly earnings with the public if they were bullish on their future, but in the current stagflationary trend, companies are cautious. Those at the top are losing confidence in their company’s ability to meet or exceed expectations.

Dimon and Buffett argued that the public’s attention should be on the long-term results. That aligns with Buffett’s buy and hold strategy but does not work for most portfolios that require investment strategy changes based on incoming data. In Trump’s personal predicament, the price adjustments due to tariffs are a reason to halt quarterly reporting.

Still, lowering transparency raises market risk, and the markets do not respond well to volatility. Columbia Law School published an article that looked at the 2017 regulatory adjustment on the Tel-Aviv Exchange (TASE) when small-cap firms switched from mandatory quarterly reports to semi-annual updates. “The  stocks of firms that chose that option dropped an average of 2 percent in price in a window of (-5,+5) days,” the analysis found. “Conversely, the stock of firms that chose to continue quarterly reporting rose an average of 2.5 percent over an immediate window of (-5,+5) days.”

The study also noted that while compliance costs dropped by 19.8% by eliminating two annual reports, the firms that chose to maintain four annual reports did not see a significant change in audit fees. There was a clear trade-off between cost reduction and maintaining investor confidence, the study noted.

The US markets cannot be compared to the TASE, and that 2% reduction in investment would likely rise for US firms, as consumer confidence is absolutely paramount. The proposition of semi-annual reports stems from the belief that companies will be unable to provide optimistic earnings reports. Reducing reporting fees is not the concern, and the repercussions are vast as massive portfolio shifts would ensue as investors and money managers need to reduce risks and would be less likely to take short-term risks if the data is unavailable to them. Reducing transparency would shake up confidence in the markets overall, and as mentioned, capital does not like volatility.

“Art Must Always Tell The Truth”


Posted originally on CTH on September 10, 2025 | Sundance

Popular artist Banksy created a graffiti mural in London depicting the current state of the UK censorship system using the courts to trample the rights of British citizens:

[SOURCE]

It did not take long for the authorities to cover the mural and eventually attempt to remove it.

However, what remained of the artwork was the essential core of the truth.

I particularly like the fact the govt turned the CCTV camera, so they can monitor who might visit the scene of the criminal dissent.

Apparently, the British government doesn’t quite see the irony.

Hollywood & Gold


Posted originally on Sep 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Gold Int Rates

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just had to write to say thank you. Gold is going up with stocks, despite everyone else being indoctrinated with ineffective theories. They keep saying the same stupid shit and pay no attention to the fact that they have continually been wrong. These people are psychopaths and have cost people a fortune and ruined marriages, as I saw with a friend. The stock market and gold have risen with the highest interest rates, the dollar, and it all depends on what you call the outside wildcard. Anyone who doesn’t invite you to these interviews isn’t worth my time. They cannot be trusted in my book.

Hollywood 2

This is why they make movies about you and no other analyst. Can people invest in the Hollywood movie being made about you? I know people invest in film. If this is about your career and promoting cycles, I think everyone should be chipping in. The world needs to be exposed to your work. You are the only one who makes common sense economically, and you know geopolitics like the back of your hand. They are running out of ideas for films. Their endless Superman movies clearly evidence that. Will there be such an offering to invest in your film?

FS

ANSWER: I am not sure if there will be any offerings to invest in the Hollywood version. I do not get involved in fundraising. I am supposed to have the script in a couple of weeks. The head of the studio is coming to visit in a few weeks. I know they are very serious about this, and they see it as an opportunity to showcase cyclical analysis to the world, which is why I agreed to participate. A top writer is now doing the final polish, from what I have been told.

They wanted something like The Big Short. I was told that the film brought in approximately $133.4 million worldwide against a production budget of $28 million. Obviously, this is why people invest in producing films.

I am not sure who will be playing me in the movie. I believe they then pitch it to A-class actors, so the whole cost thing, I am sure, depends on who they get. I do believe they have most of the funding in place. These people are big producers, not first-timers. When I learn more, I will let everyone know. I am uncertain whether there will be any opportunities for investors. I am not familiar with that market.

IBEUUS M Array 9 8 25

I will do an update on the markets on the Private Blog this week.

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