Putin is at War with the West – Not Ukraine


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Sep 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Vladimir Putin’s recent speech is making headlines as people falsely claim Russia is about to launch an all-out nuclear attack. Putin is sticking to his same plan and says it in his opening statement: “The subject of this address is the situation in Donbas and the course of the special military operation to liberate it from the neo-Nazi regime, which seized power in Ukraine in 2014 as the result of an armed state coup.” Russia must now play defense as they are no longer simply battling Ukraine.

Putin stated that in 1991 the West prided itself on dividing the USSR, and believes “now is the time to do the same to Russia, which must be divided into numerous regions that would be at deadly feud with each other. They decided these plans years ago.”

Putin knows that he is fighting a NATO offensive and not simply Ukraine and directly calls out Washington, London, and Brussels. He correctly stated that the West first set out to demonize Russia and spread “Russophobia,” as they did during the Cold War. NATO and the West are now the opponents of Russia in this proxy war, while the Ukrainian people are merely cannon fodder used to usher in this new world.

Putin has been trying to reclaim land since 2014. He had no plan to seize Ukraine, but did want to reclaim the Donbas. This is much bigger than Russia v Ukraine as he fears he must act on the offensive against most of the world’s superpowers who want to seize Russia. They are shoving endless funds into Ukraine because they expect a prize in the end. Putin stated that he attempted peace talks, but the West shot them down because they craved war.

“After the start of the special military operation, in particular after the Istanbul talks, Kiev representatives voiced quite a positive response to our proposals. These proposals concerned above all ensuring Russia’s security and interests. But a peaceful settlement obviously did not suit the West, which is why, after certain compromises were coordinated, Kiev was actually ordered to wreck all these agreements.

More weapons were pumped into Ukraine. The Kiev regime brought into play new groups of foreign mercenaries and nationalists, military units trained according to NATO standards and receiving orders from Western advisers.”

This will not end well; the West made it clear that peace would not be an option. Zelensky is simply the face of a much larger plan at play that involves an ongoing plot to seize Russia, which has been happening behind the scenes for decades.

RT Interview on Russia-Ukraine War


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

RT reached out to Martin Armstrong for an economist’s view on the Ukrainian conflict. Click here for a quick interview that explains why Zelensky has no incentive to seek peace.

Putin & October


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Sep 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Despite all the propaganda that was put out by John McCain, Putin was selected by Yeltsin because he was being blackmailed on the one side by the oligarchs in July 1999 and the communists on the other who introduced a motion in the Duma to impeach him for corruption that was related to the Bank of New York scandal.

Putin NEVER sought to resurrect the old USSR. In fact, he was the ONLY Russian leader to even criticize Lenin as just a bolshevik who destroyed a great empire of the Tsars. Lost in the pages of history, Russia at the time in 1917 had the largest gold reserves of any nation. Those gold reserves vanished and to this day have not been found. It was believed that they were hidden to prevent the Communists from seizing them.

Putin was there to restore Russia after the oligarchs plundered it and the Harvard boys who advised Russia on how to make the transition from Communism to Capitalism utterly never understood the most basic element of such a transition – the people. Putin’s most important achievement of his 20 years in power was restoring normalcy and stability to Russia. He went after the oligarchs and told them they could keep their money, but to stop interfering in politics.

The unwritten history that has been omitted from all books on the subject is that in 1991 when the USSR collapsed, NATO solicited Gorbachev to join NATO. That was one of the reasons there was a coup against him for the hardliners saw this would be a surrender of Russia to the USA. That is when Yeltsin stood on the tank and became President. Yeltsin was himself corrupt and he actually facilitated the rise of the oligarchs.

When Yeltsin turned to Putin out of desperation, the people cheered for Putin was neither an oligarch nor a communist. Despite the propaganda from the West, Putin truly enjoyed a 70%+ approval rating for the people neither wanted to lose all freedom to the communists and the oligarchs exploited the people to gain wealth.

Putin has refused to institute a draft to shore up Russian forces. However, despite all the propaganda that pours out of Ukraine, removing Putin will turn Russia very hard right and they are already criticizing Putin for being too soft.

There has been the strategy that inflation is rising and if Putin is smart, he will turn off the gas to Europe for the winter and show them how insane this is to (1) fuel a proxy war against Russia, and (2) push this Great Reset and the Green Agenda.

Basically, the hope remains that the West loses interest in supporting Ukraine as the costs rise. That’s been Russia’s hope and Ukraine’s dread before, but it seems more unlikely than ever at the moment before winter comes.

The most serious threat to Putin is losing the support of the elites. At the moment, Putin is the balance in the middle between hawks who want to see him crush Ukraine, and doves who want a peace settlement. As it stands now, the hawks would win for the West does not seek any peace and Zelensky says Kissenger is living in 1938 and refuses to yield one inch of territory to Russia. The Ukrainian Neo-Nazis instantly attacked the Donbas in 2014 and even put out a slogan that Crimea will be Ukrainian or Crimea will be depopulated. The hatred there is not going to ever vanish. The only reasonable solution is to allow the Donbas to vote, but since they are mostly ethnic Russians, Kyiv will never accept their vote.

It appears that the volatility will rise after this coming week. The Ukrainians may be forcing Putin’s hand to placate the Hawks since the Doves have been rejected by the West. NATO was Behind the Surprise Offensive In Kharkiv. Yet this victory for Ukraine was more of a staged PR event. The region was being held by local police units, not the Russian army which is in the South. Russia has achieved a 10:1 kill ratio against the Ukrainians in the region of the Donbas which is key. The Ukrainian forces that attacked Kharkiv were in effect a NATO army with the full support of Western intelligence and tactics. Because Kharkiv was held by police-type forces rather than the Russian army, it was clearly done for a PR event to raise morale and to get the West to send more money under the theory that Putin is on the run.

Panicked Germany Seizes Russian Energy Company Rosneft, Uses National Trusteeship to Control Oil Refinery – The Current Economic Outlook of Europe, Full State Control of Critical Energy Production


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 16, 2022 | sundance

Welcome to the new “democratic norms” in the industrialized west as Germany seizes the private assets of Russian owned energy company Rosneft; because oil refining is critical to fuel prices and German has just realized their vulnerability.

Within this new Build Back Better system, driven by the policies of western nations, it appears things are changing quickly.  Democracy or capitalism in Germany is now quickly dispatched, as socialism -state control- becomes the priority.

Heck, I’m old enough to remember when everyone decried China’s authoritarian economic model for doing the exact same thing as Germany (a few months ago).  But, well, we must pretend not to notice these things comrades….

(Reuters) – BERLIN, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Germany took control of a major Russian-owned oil refinery on Friday, risking retaliation from Moscow as Berlin strives to shore up energy supplies and meet its European Union commitment to eliminate Russian oil imports by the end of the year.

The economy ministry said it was putting a unit of Russian oil firm Rosneft (ROSN.MM) under the trusteeship of the industry regulator and taking over the business’ Schwedt refinery, which supplies 90% of Berlin’s fuel.

“This is a far-reaching energy policy decision to protect our country,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz told a news conference to present the government’s plans to put the Schwedt refinery under the control of the Federal Network Agency regulator. (read more)

Who knew economic security was national security?

Now, let’s start talking about USA food exports, shall we?

Also, I’ll take “Things That Won’t End Well” for $1000, Alex.

Zelensky to head US Defense Industry Conference


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Sep 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The military-industrial complex continues to grow with the proxy war. The annual Future Force Capabilities Conference and Exhibition hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) will feature none other than Zelensky as their keynote speaker, as well as his minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov. Everyone in attendance is directly profiting off of the war. The IRS deems the NDIA to be a nonprofit organization when in fact, it is blatantly lobbying.

Defense contractors need war, as do corrupt government officials who prosper off of pain. America has already provided Ukraine with over $15 billion since February, yet Zelensky is poised to request more funding and weapons at this meeting.

Boeing Defense, Space & Security; L3Harris Technologies; Raytheon Technologies; BAE Systems; Lockheed Martin Corporation; Huntington Ingalls Industries; General Dynamics; and Northrop Grumman all met in April to discuss how they could profit off of the war. The Pentagon recently announced (see video above) that they want to set up “the backbone of a Ukraine force…for years to come.” Meanwhile, the US military is suggesting that its own soldiers, 24% of whom are food insecure, begin applying for food stamps.

The Biden Administration seems to have unlimited funds for Ukraine. This event will show all the “innovative” ways that the US can pay to kill Russian soldiers on behalf of Ukraine “for years to come.”

Ukraine Carrying out Assassinations in Moscow


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There are reports on the Russian General SVR Telegram channel, which tends to be an anti-Putin station, that is claiming there was an inside-job attempt to assassinate Putin with an attack on his motorcade. He was not harmed. They are claiming that the first car of the convoy was blocked by an ambulance, but the second car made a slight detour and did not stop. A loud bang was supposedly heard from Putin’s car, but it continued and arrived safely at the president’s residence.

They further claimed that the body of a man was then found driving the ambulance. They have reported that the head of the president’s bodyguards and several other people have been suspended and are in custody. Nobody has been named and there is no other news service that has reported this claim.

When we look at our models, the real higher volatility and the turning point in Russia appear to be in October, which is also a Panic cycle in the ruble. What we do see is that the Ukrainians carried out assassination hits in Russia. They have been trying to target Putin to kill him without success so far. They tried to kill Aleksandr Dugin with a car bomb, but they killed his daughter Darya Dugina. This is the car bombing of a pro-Putin supporter in Moscow. The sheer hatred between Ukrainian and Russians is legendary and as such the likelihood of this ever reaching peace is unlikely.

My sources continue to suggest that removing Putin will escalate things, not stop them. The hardliners will seize power and that will not be good going into 2023. Claiming they have Putin on the run is not going to win the day in Ukraine. It runs the risk of really escalating things for the hardliners in Moscow are criticizing Putin for being too soft on Ukraine. He for the first time started to attack their power grid. The hardliners will push for a serious attack against Ukraine rather than just securing the Donbas.

Is Russia Losing?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Sep 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Ukrainian army is at least one-third larger than it was last year and some claim it has doubled in size. They have been concentrating their effort, not on the Donbas, but on Ukraine’s Kharkov region. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that Russia has withdrawn its troops from multiple locations across Ukraine’s Kharkov region pulling back to the Donbas in the face of a major Ukrainian offensive in the area. The Ministry has actually stated: “In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.”

The troops that were stationed in the Kharkov area have been “re-deployed” over the past three days pulling back to the Donetsk People’s Republic. It also stated that during its withdrawal, the military had performed a “number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops.”  It did not elaborate. It was attacking the Ukrainians to allow the withdrawal with artillery, missile, and aircraft attacks to provide cover. They claimed that they destroyed over 100 armor pieces and artillery and eliminated “more than 2,000 Ukrainian and foreign fighters” in the past three days. The Ukrainian offensive was launched in the Kharkov Region on Thursday, but they were not as successful.

The real problem will emerge with the coming winter and is likely to be a very tough winter. While NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg keeps urging Ukraine to continue fighting against Russia, it puts out this urging saying that otherwise, the country may “cease to exist” as an independent nation. From the outset, Putin did not seek to conquer all of Ukraine. One must wonder if the West is not propagating this war claiming Ukraine will cease to exist unless it fights Russia. That certainly eliminates any settlement or a peace treaty. NATO needs war with Russia and Putin by now has to understand that his real enemy is NATO and the USA. The propaganda fueling this agenda can be seen in the words of Stoltenberg who told the AP:

“If President [Vladimir] Putin and Russia stop fighting, then we will have peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, then Ukraine will cease to exist as an independent nation.” 

Stoltenberg admitted that there has been “no sign” that Putin or Moscow is giving up its objectives in Ukraine. He keeps insisting that Russia’s ultimate goal in the conflict is “taking control of Ukraine.” He knows that is not true and perhaps is begging Putin to adopt that goal. If that were true, Putin should do as the USA did in Iraq – (1) take down the power grid, (2) take down the communications, (3) attack the water supply, and (4) attack the food supply.

“Winter’s coming” as they warned in Game of Thrones. Reuters has reported that the flows of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine were stable at the start of the week. Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany “remained shut and eastbound gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Poland from Germany continued at low levels.”

Beware of the feigned-retreat is a military tactic, whereby a military force pretends to withdraw to lure an enemy into a position of vulnerability. Ukraine is now concentrating its forces in Kharkov region. Putin cannot be stupid and with the approach of winter, he should cut off all the gas through Ukraine to Europe and do as Stoltenberg keeps saying. There are two options. Use Tactical nuclear weapons, also called nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are generally designed for battlefield use and have a shorter range than strategic, or long-range, nuclear weapons, which are designed to directly attack an adversary’s homeland.

Herodotus reported that the Ancient Spartans used the feigned-retreat tactic at the Battle of Thermopylae (480BC) to defeat a force of Persian Immortals. Socrates debated a general who said it was cowardly to retreat. Even during the Battle of Agrigentum, in Sicily (262BC) during the First Punic War. Then the Carthaginian general Hanno, son of Hannibal, sent in his cavalry to attack the Roman cavalry and then pulled a feign-retreat drawing the Romans right into the arms of the main Carthaginian army waiting patiently.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements that were to provide the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state and to vote on their own separation since they were ethnically Russians. That agreement was brokered by Germany and France and was first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko then admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.” That is precisely what was done.

The problem now is that this appears to be an all-out war that the West keeps saying Russia is losing. I fear if that were true, then we will be looking at tactical nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine calling the bluff of Europe- Who will be next? Beware of next April and this coming January does not look very quiet on the Western front. The Pi Target from the fall of the USSR comes on April 6th, 2023. The West keeps telling the Ukrainians that Russia is losing and that the overthrow of Putin will bring peace. I fear this is just total propaganda dor the people behind Putin are far worse and think he has been too soft on Ukraine.

Fearing a Complete Shutdown from Russia, Europe Scraps Plans to Cap Russian Gas Prices


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 | Sundance 

War is an outcome of ideology and economics, and the latter is perhaps the most powerful weapon.  As the harsh reality of Europe’s insufferable decades-long efforts to embrace the virtues of climate change begin to settle in, the reasonable adults in the conversation are able to see how their weakness is being exploited by their adversary.

On Sept 7, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference in Brussels, announcing five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine.” {Go Deep}

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it very clear that any further efforts to weaken his economy, via western sanctions and interventionist efforts against his economy, would be met with retaliation in the form of cutting off all oil and gas supplies to Europe.  It appears the Europeans now understand the nature of their vulnerability.

(Via Reuters) – The EU has dropped plans to cap the price it pays for Russian gas.

Energy ministers from the bloc met Friday (September 9) in Brussels. They scrapped plans for the cap after the idea failed to win broad support.

Member states in central and eastern Europe who still get gas from Russia feared retaliation by Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin had said he would cut off supplies altogether if a cap was imposed.

However, ministers did agree to claw back revenues from some power producers and will use the money to curb consumer bills. European energy prices are typically set by gas plants. That leaves generators using nuclear, wind or coal raking in revenue, as their running costs haven’t risen as much or at all.

On Friday, some EU nations also argued in favor of a general cap on all gas imports. However, European energy commissioner Kadri Simson said any such move would be risky:

“The general price cap, including LNG imports, could present a security of supply challenge, because the LNG market is a global market. We are not among the three biggest LNG-importing regions or countries, and there is very strong competition in the LNG market and right now it is very important that we can replace the decreasing Russian volumes with alternative suppliers.”

The EU windfall plan will now be fleshed out in the coming days, with another meeting of energy ministers seen possible later in the month. (read more)

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen previously announced five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine. And now our work is paying off. At the start of the war, gas from Russian pipelines accounted for 40% of all imported gas. Today it has dropped to only 9% of our gas imports. These are tough times. But I am convinced that Europeans have the economic strength, the political will and the unity to maintain the upper hand,” she said.  The United States and Norway are the primary suppliers of gas to the EU to fill the void.

Commissar von der Leyden’s five initiatives included:

(1) Conservation of electricity through forced and mandated cuts in electricity use.  The amount of the cut has yet to be determined but reducing demand through forced curtailment of electricity use is the first approach.  [Insert California as an example here in the United States.]

(2) A cap on the profit generated by energy suppliers who use renewable energy like wind and solar.  The renewable industry has lower costs, yet they are profiting from the top line increase in delivered electricity.  The EU commissar is proposing to confiscate the profits of Green Energy suppliers, direct the funds to the member states and then use those funds to subsidize the energy costs of poorer EU citizens.

(3) A cap on the profits generated by traditional fossil fuel energy suppliers (oil, coal, nuclear, gas electricity generation), and the diversion of those profits following the same formula as above.

(4) Banking support and financial liquidity for smaller regional energy providers who are having short term financial issues as they must pay massive amounts of money for the raw material needed to generate electricity.  Essentially, the cost of coal, oil and LNG has skyrocketed, and there is a lag between the time they energy company must pay for the fuel source and the time the customer pays the electricity bill.   The inbound fuel costs (new) are so extreme the inbound payments for prior electricity (old) are not covering the cost of the new supplier purchase.

(5) A price cap on Russian natural gas.  To accompany the increased import of Norwegian and U.S. gas.  This sounds like a bizarro effort to manipulate the market which could backfire.  If Russian gas is cheaper than EU market gas, the smart energy providers will purchase the Russian gas.

Number five is now scrapped.

Not a single word about increasing the supply of any traditional energy resource.  These EU ideologues -bureaucrats within a system that is not representative of democracy- are so committed to the cult of climate change and renewable energy, they are willing to destroy the EU economy in order to lower demand to the level of their windmills and solar farms.  However, it looks like alternate, perhaps even sensible people within the EU, are starting to realize the ‘climate change’ ideologues are the real and present danger.

JACKSON HINKLE JOINS TUCKER CARLSON ON FOX NEWS


The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumple on September 6, 2022 

The Deep State now controls Congress, the White House and who every controls Brandon.

Ukrainian Parliament Lines Pockets with Western Aid


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Sep 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The pro-war People’s Deputies of Ukraine Party are using Western funding to line their pockets. It has been reported that the average paycheck went from 28,800 to 49,600 hryvnia, and taxpayers in other countries will pay for their raises.

This news came out shortly after CBS attempted to release a documentary that claimed weapon shipments from the US were frequently missing. CBS was forced to redact parts of the documentary, “Arming Ukraine,” after Ukraine’s government threatened them. The first report stated that 70% of the weapon purchases had gone missing, while another piece said only 30% of aid had arrived. “Since that time, Ohman says delivery has improved,” CBS backtracked. “We are updating our documentary to reflect this new information and air at a later date.”

“The weapons are stolen, the humanitarian aid is stolen, and we have no idea where the billions sent to this country have gone,” an anonymous veteran originally told reporters. He went on to claim that soldiers are receiving less pay while those at the top are lining their pockets. Zelensky continually claims that his country needs endless funds for the endless war. Where is this money going? Since WE are paying for the war, we deserve to know the truth.