Can European Sovereign Debt Really Crash Without a Free Market?


QUESTION: Hi Marty,

When the stock market crashed in 1929, followed by the bonds into 1933, we saw a minor bump in the stock market. As this occurred during a Public Wave, are u suggesting during our current Private Wave, we will see bonds collapse first 2020+, as capital flees into the stock market for a peak in 2022/2023? How will European bonds collapse when the ECB continues QE? Or will the catalyst be one or two large bank ( DB), or country failures (Italy), or Brexit?

Who ranks in importance?

Thank you?

ANSWER: One of the fascinating aspects of what we face is clearly the sovereign bond markets. The ECB and the Bank of Japan fund their government debts without end, and they have both destroyed their bonds markets. I will have to run back to Europe because things are just getting really crazy there. The ECB cannot sell the bonds it has already bought. They have already stated that as bonds mature, they will reinvest that money aside from any new purchases because there is no market. Since they have destroyed their own bond markets, we are UNLIKELY to see a crash if there are no bids and offers. They will simply pretend that sovereign debt is perfectly fine.

What we should expect to see is private sector debt decline as rates rise. The premium of private over government will widen simply because the government debt is not a free market number. I can say that there are a lot of people in various governments who are contacting us these days. This shows there are people who are deeply concerned that this is not going to end very nicely.

As far as which is more serious, BREXIT or an Italian exit, it will be the latter and not the former. Why? Italy was a founding member of the euro and it uses the euro. Therefore, Britain never joined the euro thanks to Maggie Thatcher. Italy leaving the euro will be far more devastating to the euro itself and will complicate matters since the ECB is saturated with Italian debt. There are a lot more ties that have to be cut besides trade, as is the case in Britain.

Is Perpetual Prosperity a Fictional Dream?


QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong…Thanks for trying to settle our confusion re: Griffin’s “Creature” You make a distinction between Gov’t mandated debt & Fed helicopter money. But isn’t debt still just debt?
Also, you seem to be saying the Federal Reserve is a necessary evil (maybe not even evil), & that central banks & fractional reserve banking are a fair & honest system. All very confusing.
I believe you could more easily enlighten our Neanderthal economic brains by simply describing your version of a near perfect monetary system, that’s also immune from political interference. Maybe call it “The Armstrong Guide to Perpetual Prosperity”

We’re NOT mocking you. Would love to see this as would 99% of your readers.

Wishing you a long & healthy life. We need you.

HS

ANSWER: I understand this gets confusing because people have taken one tiny stone and assume the entire mountain is the same. The Fed was created to be funded by the banks themselves to effectively be their bailout institution. As I have written before, the Fed “stimulated” for it was authorized to buy ONLY corporate paper when banks could not lend. Because of WWI, the politicians directed the Fed to only buy government debt and never returned it to its purpose. It is nothing like what it was designed to do.

There is no such thing as Fed Helicopter Money. That is another absolute absurd proposition. The Fed can create elastic money, but it is effectively backed by the debt they purchase. The entire Quantitative Easing was by NO MEANS the creation of money out of thin air. They were buying in government debt which is in itself simply money that pays interest. The Helicopter Money these people argue was supposed to create hyperinflation only revealed that the people who call it that actually have no idea what they are talking about. They pretend that the money was just created with no backing. But it was buying in government debt. The REAL MONEY supply is not simply cash, it includes the entire national debt BECAUSE debt is now collateral and can be used in the economy. The economic reality was simply moving money from your left pocket to your right. The supply remained the same. That is why Quantitative Easing failed to work. The real creation of money is the debt and the difference is significant for it is money that pays interest requiring the creation of ever more debt.

The PERFECT monetary system is one in which there is no debt. Rome lasted for 1,000 years BECAUSE it had no debt. It did use MMT insofar as it created money each year to fund itself. The great debasement took place during the 3rd century when Emperor Valerian I was captured by the Persians in 260 AD and forced to be a slave to the Persian King. That broke confidence in the government; people freaked out and began to hoard everything.

The first criteria are TERM LIMITS and the elimination of any power to borrow. No spending bill may be merged with another. Every bill must stand on its own and the people must vote by a computer on each bill. They cannot be passed without more than 50% of the people voting. Therefore, we restore a DIRECT form of Democratic government. There may be no law that is based upon any religious belief or seeks to impose any restriction upon any race, gender, or sexual orientation. Some people will object. But we must understand that we have to protect even people we disagree with in order to protect ourselves. There can be no exception to basic rights. Arnaud Amalric, prior to the massacre at Béziers, was reported to have said: “Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius,” which is a direct translation of the Latin phrase “Kill them. For the Lord knows those that are His own.” It is not our station to sit in judgment over others pretending to know what God wants. That is his role, not ours. Laws should never be allowed to be written for the purpose of forcing the belief of one group upon another as we have today with the left v right.

Next, we must eliminate all forms of Direct Taxation (income tax), which requires people to report to the government even to confirm you are not rich. All taxation MUST be indirect as the Founding Fathers intended. The people will pay taxes based upon their consumption. Naturally, raw food and rent should be exempt. Then you cap the government expenditure at a max of 5% of GDP, not to exceed the population growth rate.

Money is simply the medium of exchange. It is NEVER a reservoir or store of wealth. It is merely the unit of account that is no different from a language. If someone says something to you in German, you immediately try to translate it to your native tongue to understand what they said. Money serves the same function. We call Trump a billionaire, not because he has cash in the bank, but because people look at his assets and translate them into money to judge his worth. That is the role of money. We must understand and embrace it. Only then can we comprehend a monetary system.

These are just a few of the necessary elements. The crisis is NEVER the quantity of money. It is those who seek to rule us from above. Direct reform at the powers that be and the monetary system will quickly fall into line. There is no possible “perpetual prosperity” because everything is connected and nature also plays a role in the business cycle. Marx to Keynes have all tried to create the perfect system that will produce endless prosperity. That is an impossible fictional dream.

 

The Science of Sex With Sally Le Page


Sally Le Page traverses the weird and wonderful world of evolution and reproduction, with regular musical interludes along the way. This talk includes references to sex and has some mild language.

Are all males cheats? What do women want? And why should they do all the choosing anyway? What’s the largest number of children born to any woman? Join Sally Le Page on a light-hearted romp through the bizarre jungle of animal (and human) sex lives. She leads the audience through the evolutionary adventure of sex, from sexual conflict and the male frogs that sometimes hug a little too hard, to the supportive bush cricket spouses that feed and care for their mates. Sally explores mind controlling sperm, penguin prostitution, and how jealousy can affect sperm production.

The Evolution of Males and Females – with Judith Mank


Published on Apr 27, 2016

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Judith Mank leads a tour of how sex is genetically programmed and how sex differences evolve. Watch the Q&A here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-DRO… Subscribe for regular science videos: http://bit.ly/RiSubscRibe Males and females in many species are often quite different from one another. The sex of an individual can have profound effects on how an organisms behaves, how it looks, how it lives and, in some cases, even how it dies. These differences are the product of different evolutionary forces acting on males and females, sometimes creating substantial conflicts between the sexes. In this talk, Judith Mank gives a quick tour of how sex is genetically programmed and how sex differences evolve. Judith Mank is Professor in the Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment at University College London. She is interested in understanding how form, behaviour and reproductive patterns have evolved through selective pressures. The Ri is on Twitter: http://twitter.com/ri_science and Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/royalinstitution and Tumblr: http://ri-science.tumblr.com/ Our editorial policy: http://www.rigb.org/home/editorial-po… Subscribe for the latest science videos: http://bit.ly/RiNewsletter

President Trump Issues Emergency Order Grounding Boeing 737 Max 8,9, Aircraft…


Following two similar plane crashes in Indonesia (Oct ’18) and Ethiopia (March ’19) President Trump has issued an emergency order grounding a specific Boeing 737 airliner.  The “Max 8” and “Max 9” models are being grounded out of an abundance of caution while U.S. and international authorities await the findings from crash investigation.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. is issuing an emergency order Wednesday grounding all Boeing 737 Max 8 and Max 9 aircraft “effective immediately,” in the wake of the crash of an Ethiopian Airliner that killed 157 people, President Donald Trump said.

“All of those planes are grounded, effective immediately,” Trump said during a scheduled briefing on border security.

Trump said any airplane currently in the air will go to its destination and then be grounded. He added all airlines and affected pilots had been notified.

Trump said the safety of the American people is of “paramount concern,” and added that the FAA would soon put out a statement on the action.

Trump said the decision to ground the aircraft “didn’t have to be made, but we thought it was the right decision.”

The president insisted the announcement was coordinated with aviation officials in Canada, U.S. carriers and aircraft manufacturer Boeing.

“Boeing is an incredible company,” Trump said. “They are working very, very hard right now and hopefully they’ll quickly come up with an answer.” (AP Report Link)

Prior to this decision, it appeared that Boeing was concerned about a specific element to flight software – SEE HERE:

BOEING – March 11, 2018 […] For the past several months and in the aftermath of Lion Air Flight 610, Boeing has been developing a flight control software enhancement for the 737 MAX, designed to make an already safe aircraft even safer. This includes updates to the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law, pilot displays, operation manuals and crew training. The enhanced flight control law incorporates angle of attack (AOA) inputs, limits stabilizer trim commands in response to an erroneous angle of attack reading, and provides a limit to the stabilizer command in order to retain elevator authority.

Boeing has been working closely with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on development, planning and certification of the software enhancement, and it will be deployed across the 737 MAX fleet in the coming weeks. The update also incorporates feedback received from our customers.

The FAA says it anticipates mandating this software enhancement with an Airworthiness Directive (AD) no later than April. We have worked with the FAA in development of this software enhancement.

[…] A pitch augmentation control law (MCAS) was implemented on the 737 MAX to improve aircraft handling characteristics and decrease pitch-up tendency at elevated angles of attack. It was put through flight testing as part of the certification process prior to the airplane entering service. MCAS does not control the airplane in normal flight; it improves the behavior of the airplane in a non-normal part of the operating envelope. (read more)

Current Boeing Press Release:

(LINK)

Jordan Peterson tells you why Social Scientists are terrified of factor analysis


Published on Aug 23, 2017

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What controls my choices? Why do I do what I do? In this lecture, he begins discussing the development of modern trait theory. Psychologists, expert in measurement and statistics, discovered extroversion, neuroticism, agreeableness, conscientiousness and openness to experience, and began the process of delineating their social significance and biological underpinnings.. Do you want to support his channel? Please go to his website located in the link below:

Thomas Sowell on Intellectuals and Society


Published on Dec 16, 2009

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The author of more than a dozen books, Dr. Sowell is now a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. In his newest work, Intellectuals and Society, he will discuss why so many disasters of our time have been committed by experts or intellectuals. You may remember FDRs Brain Trust which according to later studies is a prolonged the depression by several years. The wiz kids at the pentagon under McNamara who managed to mess up the Vietnam War, you can run through an impressive list of things, of disasters brought about by people with very high IQ

 

X-37B – What is it doing up there?


Published on Sep 1, 2017

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US top secret space plane has been launched into orbit several times, and remains there for over a year, what is it up to? If you’d like to help support me continue to create videos, you can do so here… Patreon (Monthly) – https://www.patreon.com/CovertCabal PayPayl (One Time Donations) – https://www.paypal.me/covertcabal Discord – https://discord.gg/E7p2Z2X

Upward Bound: Space Elevators


Published on Mar 9, 2017

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In this episode we examine the concept of a Space Elevator, a popular piece of developing technology designed to lift people and cargo into space at a fraction of normal launch costs. We will look at technology as well as many of the misconceptions about Space Elevators which have emerged. “The physics of the space elevator”, P. K. Aravind: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/d402… Visit our Website: http://www.isaacarthur.net Join the Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/15839… Support the Channel on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/IsaacArthur Visit the sub-reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/ Listen or Download the audio of this episode from Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/isaac-arthur-1… Cover Art by Jakub Grygier: https://www.artstation.com/artist/jak…

Trade Deficits & the Confusion Caused by the Methods used to Calculate it


QUESTION: Marty, just reported this past week America’s trade deficit hit a record $891 billion while, in the same week, unemployment report fell to 3.8%. Does this refute the conventional economic belief that trade deficits take away jobs and output?

Cheers, TGM

ANSWER: What is reported as trade is not simply trade. The numbers are all screwed up. It tracks actual goods as well as services and that includes capital flows. The accounting system is set up in such a way that capital investment buying bonds, stocks, and real estate go into the Capital Account. However, all dividends and interest earned by a foreigner on US assets then are accounted for in the Current Account. It is the Current Account that people report as trade which is not correct because it also includes interest and dividends. Thus, the more foreigners invest in a country, the more it will erroneously appear to be expanding the trade deficit as interest and dividends flow back on their capital investment.