Tag Archives: AI, enhanced version replaces Shadow Banning

Aug 20 2018

Merkel Objects to France’s Vision of a EU Finance Minister


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Aug 20, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected France’s Macron’s proposal for the establishment of a euro finance minister. Merkel has also stated that she wants a planned EU budget for the Eurozone area as part of the EU budget. She does not want an independent budget for the 19 countries of the monetary union. Merkel is still adhering to her view that the quantity of money causes inflation and it has been that policy which has suppressed the European economy for the last decade. A Euro finance minister she argues would lack both a budget as well as there would be no parliamentary control.

Aug 19 2018

Short-term v Long-term Forecasting Earthquakes


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Aug 19, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

There is a site that is doing short-term Earthquake forecasts who has a very good track record known as Dutchsinse. He has a very good track record for forecasting events near-term. Of course, this is still not mainstream. It is very strange when people can improve on forecasting they are just ignored. Our models are not designed to give a specific target for an earthquake on a daily basis. We have plotted the long-term historical records and correlate that with the global economy.

There are countless earthquakes every day.  We do not seek to duplicate what Dutchsinse provides. We are more concerned with targeting important events that will alter the economic trends either short or long-term. Here is our database on Japan. These are the earthquakes back to 694AD. In this case, there have been 86 important quakes for Japan. This is the entire country and not just Tokyo which has been destroyed three times – the last being 1923.

We identify periods where activity should appear even years in advance. This is completely different from short-term forecasting specific targets as has been the case with Dutchsinse. There are numerous quakes around the world every day. Most people will never feel them. Some will run deep and others shallow. Some will produce tsunami events that can be catastrophic as was the case in the 1923 Tokyo event.

Our models are more focused on the correlation with other events. Obviously, a 1923 style earthquake and tsunami in Tokyo today would impact the global economy as Japan is the third largest economy and debt market. The ripple effect in global markets, both currency, and equity would be very significant as well as the debt markets. Here we strive for long-term forecasts to provide institutions time to shift portfolios that could never be accomplished in 24 hours or less.

Aug 19 2018

Second Earthquake in One Day Hits Lombok, Indonesia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Aug 19, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

Another earthquake hit now in Indonesia but this was a 6.9 and much shallower. It has resulted in a landslide from Mount Rinjani after another earthquake hits Lombok. It really would be nice if we simply realize that everything is connected cyclically. We have now had two quakes hit the very first day our computer projected a correlation would intensify in August. There are studies that need to be done and knock off the political BS that supports research like Global Warming that produces taxes and divert it to something more practical that can actually save lives now.

Categories: Nature
Aug 19 2018

Fiji Earthquake 8.2 – More to Come?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Aug 19, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Ok, this time you were wrong. A major earthquake hit Fiji on the 19th, not the 20th and CNN reported it 3 hours ago which followed your post 8 hours ago. Your slipping!

Cheers

Keep up the great work

PF

REPLY: Well, I never bothered to try to hone in on earthquakes to the day. It was a deep quake at 8.2. Such deep quakes can later trigger more shallow quakes of similar magnitude days or weeks later. But in reality, this week began today the 19th. I am a trader so I label the weeks with the first trading day being Monday 20th. Yet, what I do find most interesting is how everything seems to be correlated together be it nature or markets. I am still trying to figure that one out. I put all of this together because it became clear from ancient times onward, that natural disasters had profound economic impacts.

 

It was the great fire of Rome that necessitated the creation of money. Nero was the first to slightly debase the silver denarius reducing the silver content from 97.5% to 93.5%. He needed more money to pay for the reconstruction of Rome and his new palace.

When Pompei was destroyed by the eruption of Vesuvius, once again we see that money was needed for the relief effort. Titus was forced to reduce the silver content from Nero’s level of 93.5% to 92.5%. Of course, the San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 contributed to the Panic of 1907 and the regional capital flow crisis that eventually led to the creation of the Federal Reserve with branches throughout the nation.

You cannot forecast the economy and markets without taking into account all factors and that includes NATURE!

Aug 19 2018

Earthquake & Volcanoes for August/September 2018


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Aug 19, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; In Singapore who warned that there would be continued volcanic activity in the Pacific and that the peak in 2018 appeared to be coming into play August/September. Is that timing still on track?

GH

ANSWER: Yes. That seems to actually begin this coming week 8/20 and goes into the week of 09/10. This is just a cyclical period but it is not catastrophic so no need to run and hide under the desk. This is a trend that should continue for several years. However, we are entering a period where we can see an increase in activity cyclically speaking. It is just that 2018 was the beginning and we have seen quite a few volcanoes erupted so far this year. It tends to correlate with the downturn in the energy output of the sun

Aug 18 2018

The British Pound & The Conservative Split


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Aug 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, It seems that the conservatives have split into two parties here. It is the same nonsense that they pulled to overthrow Margaret Thatcher. I really do not understand why they think we have to be part of the EU which is so obviously a sinking ship. As we always said here, when there is a good fog in the Channel, you would never know Europe was even there.

I read your piece on how France can object and prevent a trade deal for rest of the members. France is a hopeless communist country. Their stock market is not even worthy of investment. It has never made a new high since 2000. My question is simple. Does your forecast for the pound necessitate that the conservatives really mess up this Brexit escape from the EU?

LN

 

ANSWER: The basic trade numbers show that the United States received the most British export goods last year, followed by Germany and France. The top trade partner for imports was Germany, followed by the United States and China. The UK exported £31.7bn worth of products to the US. Britain has NEVER benefited from the EU. Your economic growth has declined ever since joining back in 1973. I use to have detailed conversations about this with Margaret Thatcher. Britain’s biggest trading partner is the USA yet she cannot negotiate trade with the USA as long as it remains inside the EU. It is absolute insanity.

 

Now, as for the pound, unfortunately, it continues to point lower against the dollar. Interestingly, the computer pinpointed the crisis in the Euro would begin during the 3rd quarter here in 2018 where we had both a Directional Change and the beginning of a Panic Cycle. Brexit will end Friday, March 29th, 2019. Note that there is a turning point showing up in the 1st quarter next year but the big one will be the 3rd quarter 2019.

 

As far as price against the dollar, there is support technically in the 92 area. The very worst support is at 53, but that does not seem likely absent war in Europe.

Aug 18 2018

Will Inflation Return to the Eurozone?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Aug 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

There are three distinct types of inflation – Demand, Asset & Currency. The major type of inflation that everyone assumes is DEMAND. This unfolds when there is actually an economic boom and people have confidence in the economy. Asset Inflation is when there is no real demand from the consumer but the asset values rise primarily from foreign investment. This is normally witnessed in real estate, stocks, and bonds. There is a subdivision of Asset Inflation that is concentrated to a single area such a food that is driven by a collapse in supply due to perhaps a drought or flooding. The third type is Currency Inflation. This is when the actual nominal value of assets do not change, but the currency fluctuation will attract or detract foreign investors because of the large fluctuation in the value of the currency on world markets.

During the 1970s, I always bought German cars. A Porsche in 1970 was about $12,000 and by 1980 it was $50,000. The rise was really created by the decline in the dollar which created the perception that German cars would so well built, they would appreciate. I would drive one for 2-years and sell it used for a profit. This was the net result of CURRENCY INFLATION. As the Euro declines, we will see inflation in the Eurozone rise sharply. The ECB will proclaim victory after 10 years, but this has nothing to do with Quantitative Easing.

Aug 17 2018

Immortality: Breakthrough Reverses Aging


Published on Aug 16, 2018

Scientists may have found a recipe for immortality, but if you live long will you prosper? What would you do with an extra 300 years? Bill Whittle hosts Scott Ott and Stephen Green to explore the benefits of virtual eternal life, and the hazards. ‘Right Angle’ is brought to you by the members at http://BillWhittle.com Subscribe and become a patron producer spreading the message of liberty around the world, in an entertaining way. Other topics on this week’s Right Angle include Omarosa’s new Trump book and why journalists treat it as fact, what killed off Homo erectus, and a look at “How we’re doing” as a country. Members get an extra episode each week, plus a Backstage video pass to our pre-production meeting. Bill Whittle, Stephen Green and Scott Ott have produced a three-man news commentary and humor show for about nine years, every week. Your topic ideas always welcome in the comments at http://BillWhittle.com Follow the Right Angle Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/RightAngleTV/ Join the Right Angle MeWe group: https://mewe.com/join/right_angle
Aug 17 2018

Real Estate – Leverage – Transition to the Reset


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate

RE-Posted Aug 17, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong,

Thank you for the daily blogs on world events with an independent analysis that makes sense. I find them better than investment bank reports that just make up the pages.
Could you please elaborate on what happens to properties when the monetary reset comes? If people lose confidence in fiat money and hoard real assets, wouldn’t that be a positive thing for properties? Or only if they are bought out in full (i.e. no mortgage)?
Thank you.
Regards,
S
ANSWER: The problem with real estate is the LEVERAGE. The value of a house has been escalated due to the fact that in the USA you can borrow using 30 years of future income. The crisis that unfolds is the collapse in the mortgage market. Then we will see a deleveraging of real estate. However, that said, real estate makes the transition as a hedge during a reset.  For example, during the German hyperinflation that led to a currency reset, that new currency that was issued was backed by real estate – not gold. Keep in mind that as the currency declines, then the repayment cost of a mortgage declines. On the one hand, mortgages will be unavailable but those who hold the mortgage lose the most. Therefore, you should be able to pay off your mortgage with cheap currency assuming you have hedged and make it through the transition.
Aug 17 2018

California Real Estate Peaks and Begin a Crash


Armstrong Economic Blog/Real Estate

RE-Posted Aug 17, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

California has joined the states with not just the highest taxes in America, but it has become one of those states that people are just leaving resulting i9n a net outward-migration. There is a logical consequence when a state becomes a place people are trying to flee from – real estate MUST decline in value. Already, sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums in Southern California has declined 11.8% year over year. Prices rallied and reached a record high in 2018. The median price paid for all Southern California homes that were sold in June 2018 was a record high reaching $536,250, according to CoreLogic. This was reported as a 7.3% increase compared to June of 2017. When you see such short-term surges in a market, that is often the sign of how every market peaks. Real estate is no exception.

Many have touted for years that California property leads the nation. Therefore, whatever trend appears they will spread to the rest of the nation. While we do not necessarily agree with that statement, nonetheless, real estate will be on the decline in most states where taxes are rising. Property is still going to rise in the 7 states without income tax. For those who are unfamiliar with Socrates, we have created indexes for real estate on a worldwide basis. Here is the page you can view what is available.

California may seem to be a leading indicator, but this appears to be with respect to direction only. While Southern California reached record highs in property values in 2018, this appears NOT to be a leading factor, but a lagging one. Our index for the nation as a whole with a limited focus to Residential peaked in August 2016. We have NOT yet elected a Monthly Bearish Reversal. Trump has clearly made a major economic difference. Capital has been returning home and this has helped to create jobs and soften the economic decline in the USA compared to Europe and Asia. This will also have a fundamental backdrop to the dollar.