Tag Archives: Chrystialand

Dec 7 2022

Futility of Price Controls


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Dec 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT FROM HUNGARY: Dear Marty,
You were correct again. Price controls do not work in the long run. The Hungarian government introduced a price cap on gasoline and diesel a few months ago, but a few hours ago this evening they had to let it go(they “tried everything in their power to help but the damn bureaucrats in Brussels who voted for the sanctions”.etc etc.).

The holiday season, panic buying, no gas another nail into the trust in our government’s coffin.
Marty these people really have no clue what the hell they’re doing. We have several food products that also have price controls: Wheat, sugar, eggs, etc. And interestingly supermarkets simply stop selling them or they sell brown sugar (no price control) instead of white sugar (price controlled, the maximum amount you can purchase in one go is 3kg i believe). When will they learn (not admit) or at least stop blaming others for their own brain-dead decisions?

I honestly hope that whatever the hell comes after 2032 will be better than this nonsense.
Thanks for all you do Marty. Keep up the fight, and get some well-needed rest during the holidays. I reckon you’re getting more phone calls than usual…
All the best,
RH

ANSWER: You know the most astonishing fact is that this was not even my personal opinion. All one need do is consult history. NEVER has any attempt to freeze prices to prevent inflation EVER worked even once.

The Roman emperor Diocletian (284-305AD) tried to impose wage and price controls in an effort to prevent inflation that was soaring because of a collapse in confidence in the Roman government. The Edit on Maximum Prices was imposed during 201AD. It was an utter failure.

Even if we go back to the 4th century B.C., the Roman government bought corn (grain) and, in times of shortage, it re-sold it at a low fixed price to try to prevent inflation from shortages – as we have today. In 58BC, the Roman Senate went even further and granted every citizen free wheat. The politicians were trying to bribe the people as they are doing once again today. What happened was that the farmers began moving back to the city of Rome because they could live and eat without working – it was free. By the time Julius Caesar (100-44BC) crossed the Rubicon, one in three Romans was receiving government wheat. He was forced to create a census and found there were more people claiming welfare than there were possible people.

Those in government ALWAYS assume that since they possess a pen, they can write whatever law they desire and they will comply or be thrown in prison until they die. I was named FOREX Person of the Year in 2015 because we forecast the Euro/Swiss peg would break. I even met with the Swiss Central Bank and warned that the peg would break. I was told they would be able to hold it. I replied I think the odds are on my side since NOBODY in history has ever been able to do this. There was the British pound peh into the ERM the broking making Soros all his money. In 1997, there was the Asian Currency Crisis where all the pegs broke. then there was even Bretton Woods which was a fixed exchange rate that broke in 1971 and in 1973 I was called in for the first bank failure due to foreign exchange.

I have done my best trying to warn governments that they CANNOT fix currencies and even when they were forming the G5 with the Plaza Accord in 1985, I was called in and warned that lowering the dollar by 40% would lead to a major currency crisis and a crash by 1987. Never have they ever listened.

Perhaps, the ONLY time anyone in Europe or the United States than anyone in government ever listen was perhaps in 1997. They were starting the jawboning of the Yen for trade purposes once again. I wrote to Robert Rubin and he has Timothy Geithner respond who later became the Secretary of the Treasury. China has listened, but other than in 1997, I cannot say any central bank or government has EVER heeded my warnings that history is on my side – pegs NEVER work.

Dec 6 2022

$80 Trillion Derivatives Market


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Dec 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has warned in its latest quarterly report that there is $80 trillion dollar in off-balance sheet dollar debt in the form of FX swaps. This has involved pension funds and other ‘non-bank’ financial firms.

What they do not explain is that each “debt” has a counterparty that has an “asset” and in theory, that works out to net zero. But there is counter-party risk that is not discussed. This doesn’t address the liquidity issue either. Still, it is not entirely a black hole as they seem to lead some to proclaim. What is also left unexplained or addressed is the question of if they are netting across all transactions. Many of the players in this market have offsetting positions. It is one thing to scream OMG the size of the stock market is too big, and another to yell fire in a crowded theater.

This $80 trill is effectively the derivatives market. It is what it is. Marking everything to market all the time isn’t a great answer either for there can be imbalances for a day or two in the middle of chaos. What is clear is that the BIS is raising concerns, in which it also said this year’s market upheaval took place without any major issues.

On the other hand, the BIS has been pushing central banks to raise rates to fight inflation which will only accelerate the crisis since it is shortage based. This is no different from the ’70s when there was an external price shock from OPEC,. Raising interest rates did nothing to prevent inflation, instead, it resulted in a strong dollar, the collapse of the pound to $1.03 in 1985, and the US national debt more than doubled on interest expenditures.

Nonetheless, the BIS has been quieter on the inflation front this time around. Just maybe, they are starting to realize that the old theories no longer work. The September UK government bond market turmoil was created by raising interest rates and the losses on holding long-term debt in the face of rising interest rates have been just the tip of the iceberg.

The FX swap markets have become huge. Our clients are well into the trillions these days whereas twenty years ago we had less than 5 clients at the $1 trillion threshold.

Nonetheless, the complexity of the cross-positions is the real risk. One side can blow out because of the chaos these braindead politicians are creating with this war against Russia.

Dec 5 2022

Trading v Forecasts


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecast Arrays Re-Posted Dec 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty; you should not be so hard on yourself. Nobody has tried harder than you to alter the outcome. Socrates is just unbeatable. I shared your hope that gold would have just cracked $1000 and that would have been a sling-sot up. But it stopped at $1045 and the reversals were elected and that was the end of that. As a long-term trader, I understood what you meant. I remember 1985 when gold just broke $300 and the leading gold analyst ___________ threw in the towel. You called that low and that’s when I started following your work. You weren’t just an analyst, you were a trader.

So ease up. You have done your best. As you said at the WEC, nobody has tried to defeat your own model as much as you, but you have always lost.

I for one hope you do Dubai in the Spring. It would be nice to see everyone in person again.

PD

REPLY: Oh, yes. I remember that trade. It takes a trader to understand why I said if gold could crack $1,000, it would then be propelled straight up into a slingshot. Perhaps one of the most important trading tools is that the market is like a pendulum. The further it swings in one direction, the fast it will be propelled in the opposite. That is why when bubble markets peak, the vast majority of the decline takes place in two to three  key time units thereafter. The failure of gold to have cracked that $1,000 psychological level is also when it has languished thereafter.

Here is the Array from October 1984. It called all the moves correctly and the major low was February with the Panic Cycle the very next month. The next temp high was on the next Directional Change in August 1985.

I have to admit, probably the one forecast of Socrates that really impressed me personally was the Array we published in 1999, which you can find on the Wayback Machine. It had targeted a Panic Cycle in 2008 – 10 years in ADVANCE! It was projecting the collapse globally of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. Obviously, my personal comments are not forecasts. I cannot beat Socrates and nobody else can possibly beat it.

Trading observations are not forecasts. Even look at BitCoin Monthly. You see the standard 2-month decline, temp low, then the pendulum moves back in the opposite direction, but the power is diminished. The power is too strong on the decline side. These are just observations from being a trader. They are NOT the computer. So, yes, my comments are not forecasts but observations. The computer does the forecasting not me. Not even I can defeat Socrates.

Dec 5 2022

Banks


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Dec 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Thank you for all you do. Your input has guided me well.
I suspect my Bank is in deep trouble. _____ bank in ____ CA.
They specialize in small business. First red flag was freezing my account for no reason. I then bounced a check because my account was frozen. They could not give me a reason for freezing my account. Then they offered me, according to them, a great investment deal, that was the second red flag. Then I was contacted by a relationship manger. This was the third red flag.

Will be closing all my accounts with ______ next week.

MC

REPLY: There are clearly problems emerging since interest rates have risen and  many banks were not in a position to take the losses on long-term investments.

Always keep some cash. A word to the wise should be sufficient

Dec 3 2022

Fixation with Numbers


Armstrong Economics Blog/Trading Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

2032 – How Do We Approach Uncharted Waters? | Armstrong Economics

COMMENT: You Know…years ago, all these different monthly reports did not affect the markets day to day so much.

Now…Today..these reports send huge panic cycles in the markets every time they are announced. Doesn’t that tell you something about the future?? Doesn’t that tell you something about the US economy? The end keeps getting closer.

N

REPLY: This is clearly the uncertainty. Everything seems to be upside down. Nobody understands the future or what might even happen. Will there be war? Will inflation actually stop? Are we headed into a major recession? How can the markets rally facing a major recession? So many questions and most have just opinions.

Even my interpretations of the computer arrays are sometimes wrong. Things are unfolding on such a global scale that concerns are rising everywhere. You have North Korea shooting missiles off over Japan, NATO members think Ukraine should join NATO, and Iran is threatening nuclear war in the Middle East. All of this while Schwab tells the world we will own nothing and be happy. To many, it has become just flip a coin and see if you should buy or sell.

Dec 3 2022

Labor Report Shows 263,000 Jobs Added in November, Combined with Significant Wage Growth 0.6% For Month


Posted originally on the CTH on December 2, 2022 | Sundance 

There’s a disconnect in the Main Street data that is perplexing from the standpoint of traditional economic and labor analysis.

There have been significant layoffs in the labor market as the result of diminished consumer spending activity. However, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) is reporting a hotter than expected 263,000 new jobs in November [DATA HERE].

There were declines in jobs within the retail sector [-30,000 in Nov, -62,000 since August] and declines in warehousing and transportation [-15, 000 in November, -30,000 since July], which would indicate the outcome of lowered consumer spending on goods, or at least a change in consumer spending priorities.

Simultaneously, there were significant increases in jobs for leisure and hospitality [+88,000 in Nov], with the majority of those gains in food service and drinking.  However, that sector is still lower than the pre-pandemic by -980,000 jobs.  Also note people are not attending events with high ticket costs, the performing arts and spectator sports segment dropped 7,000 jobs [Table B-1]

Overall, if you were to look at the macro level jobs report, anything attached to the traditional spending of durable goods (retail stores) is declining.  However, the jobs related to the service or life experience are growing.  Oddly, and perhaps creepily, this dynamic falls in line with the ‘you will own nothing and be happy‘ cliche’ that has been oft spoken about the new post pandemic ‘Build Back Better‘ economy as espoused by the World Economic Forum.

Job gains in the infrastructure of life such as, building and construction, as well as the labor sector associated with skilled domestic service trades like plumbing, electricians, maintenance, etc are continuing to hold stable.  The major shift in the labor market surrounds the buying of durable goods which has disappeared along with the disappearance of discretionary income.   Which brings us to the wage portion of the BLS report.

Wage growth was a very high 0.6% for November and brings the annual rate of wage growth to 5.1%.   This outcome is almost certainly an outcome of workers demanding higher pay to cope with inflation, and employers needing to raise their wage rates in order to retain employees.

We also see an increase in the number of workers holding multiple jobs, as individuals are taking second jobs to cope with massive price increases in housing, food, fuel and energy. As noted within the BLS data:

“In November, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees decreased by 0.2 hour to 40.2 hours, and overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 33.9 hours.”

Fewer people are working, but more jobs are being worked – with lowered hours.

Higher wages are good; however, higher wages lead to higher prices for goods and services; which drives inflation higher, which creates the need for higher wages.   It’s an upward pressure spiral.

The supply side pressure on inflation, almost exclusively created by the BBB energy policy, shows absolutely no sign of lessening, despite the drop in demand for domestically produced finished consumer goods which has lowered overall industrial demand for energy.

The Build Back Better energy driven policy changes are creating very weird economic outcomes.

Prices are rising.  Consumers are squeezed.  Jobs attached to spending on goods are declining. Jobs attached to life experience and services expanding.

Ex.1 If you are working two jobs, now you might not have time to mow your grass – so you hire a lawn service.  The lawn service guys are charging more because the gasoline and business costs are higher…. which means you need to work a little longer at the second job to pay for the lawn service you don’t have time to do on your own because you need to work the second job.   That’s the dynamic we are seeing in the quantification of labor and job growth.

Ex.2 If you are working two jobs, you might not be cooking as much at home.  So, you grab dinner/lunch away from home.  The restaurants are charging more because the business costs are higher…. which means you need to work a little longer, ask for higher wages, in order to offset the time you don’t have to eat lunch/dinner at home.

This conflicting duality is what I always called the “serfesque driven economy.”  It is an outcome of erosion of the middle-class.  A status of individuality where your desires for life experience determine the need for your income.

You don’t own a car, you Uber.  You don’t own a house, you rent.  You don’t need a kitchen, you eat out.  Things seem ok, but you eventually become a serf to the people who control transportation costs, housing costs, food costs, etc.  Ultimately you have no control over the time you want to spend in enjoyment, because you don’t own the mechanisms of your life and need to work in order to afford maintaining the costs.  It’s a weird mental exercise.

There is a real outcome in this dynamic where the wealth gap increases.

Nov 15 2022

The Crypto Contagion – More Lows into 2023


Armstrong Blog/Cryptocurrency

Posted Nov 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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This FTX scandal is the death nil for cryptos. At first, I assumed that perhaps they lost a ton of money because of the implosion of the bond market. But this was not the case. In fact, this is perhaps the worst I have ever seen and it comes from trading losses from kids that had no experience whatsoever with regard to trading. They obviously did not even understand fiduciary responsibility.  MF Global was taking client money to trade in London and got the market wrong. Bernie Madoff remains a mystery wrapped up in a political enigma.  From 1991 to 2008, Bernie and Ruth Madoff contributed only about $240,000 to federal candidates, parties, and committees. Madoff was not trying to buy influence as was taking place at FTX. Maxwell mysteriously died in 1991 when his trading scandal surfaced, but he was also secretly backing the communist coup against Gorbachev in 1991.

Then there were the accounting scandals of ENRON and Worldcom whereby to hide their losses and failures, they engaged in accounting fraud to cover up the true story. But there were not using other people’s money to trade, they were hiding their bad performance from shareholders hoping to make a comeback.

That is the common denominator. I have been called into many crises. The one thing that always runs through the problem is the refusal to admit a mistake. That seems to lead to losing trades continuing to be held in hope of the infamous COMEBACK. The motive seems to be the same and many of the problems I have been called into to help solve have been in corporations where some strategy went wrong. In these cases of ENRON, Worldcom that were allowed to fester. The trading scandals are perpetuated in the hope that the next trade will win it all back.

Crypto contagion instigated by FTX, has only gotten more interesting since Sam Bankman-Fried sent a series of cryptic tweets spelling out the words “What HAPPENED” after his wealth wipeout. After the collapse of FTX, we are looking at a collapse in confidence in all digital assets.

With this degree of collapse in even Bitcoin, there will be more bankruptcies lining up. Inexperience dominates this young field and facing a stiff recession ahead going into 2023, this meltdown is not over yet. The low in Bitcoin from 2021 high is not likely before 2023. Thus – as they say – it ain’t over until the fat lady sings (a reference to Opera).

Nov 15 2022

Too Poor to Continue Living with Dignity – Canadian Eugenics


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Nov 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Canada is not hiding its depopulation and eugenics efforts. The Trudeau Administration recently expanded the MAID (Medical Assistance in Dying) program to include those with treatable illnesses or those suffering from poverty. Almost anyone, including children, can request a medically assisted death in Canada with a quick turnaround. Families are unable to protect their loved ones from the law. The MAID program was originally designed for those living in unbearable chronic pain and/or a terminal illness. Poverty or temporary hardship is now considered a terminal illness for which there is no cure besides death.

The Canadian health system is coercing people at their lowest point to end their lives. Canada could prioritize health care and expand assistance to disabled Canadians who are unable to work. Instead, they are clearly discriminating against those suffering from poverty or mental health issues, and doctors are no longer required to treat their patients. The system is encouraging suicide over treatment as it is the most cost-effective option. There is no guarantee those murdered while under medical supervision are capable of making an informed decision; the law will be used to depopulate the undesirables.

The Netherlands and Belgium, where assisted suicide is offered on a medical basis, forbid doctors from suggesting the method unless all other options are exhausted. Canadian doctors are encouraged to offer the option to those deemed too poor to live. “Euthanasia” will not appear on the victim’s death certificate, depending on the province in which they were murdered by their government. In 2021, the number of those requesting MAID in the country rose by over 32% from the year prior, and that number will rise. As the economy turns down, those “too poor to continue living with dignity” will feel obligated to choose a permanent solution to a temporary problem.

“[MAID is] probably the biggest existential threat to disabled people since the Nazis’ program in Germany in the 1930s,” stated Tim Stainton, director of the Canadian Institute for Inclusion and Citizenship at the University of British Columbia. Pope Francis condemned the treatment of the elderly, mentally ill, and poor in Canada. “Patients who, in place of affection, are administered death,” the pope warned.

Adolf Hitler killed off “useless eaters” who did not contribute to his ideal version of society. They were forcibly taken to camps or executed on the spot. Canada is attempting to murder “useless eaters” under the guise of health care and compassion. The general public is turning a blind eye to what could become a genocide of the poor.

Nov 15 2022

FTX & Crypto-Implosion


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Nov 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The collapse of the FTX Exchange is pretty straightforward insofar as this is the same lesson that constantly repeats in finance time and time again. Basically, FTX lent US$10bn of client funds to their trading arm Alameda, which used it for leveraged their own crypto speculation because the crypto market has been collapsing. Typically, someone like Sam Bankman-Fried had his whole life wrapped up in this venture. Lacking financial controls operating from the Bahamas, moving the money from client funds to his trading arm Alameda was possible. Historically, someone in this position sees his world collapsing but is not prepared to see that unfold for it requires admitting that he was wrong on crypto, to begin with. Consequently, such a person is not trying to actually rob clients’ money, they most likely see it as a temporary loan to save the company and the market will bounce back – or so they believe.

Our computer had picked the high in Bitcoin perfectly and has been projecting the collapse all along the way. But crypto has become a religion and in so doing it clouds the judgment of people who want to believe the story. Alameda blew up in a crypto meltdown because it did not want to accept that the crypto boom was over. The loan he probably thought would be temporary, vanished in the implosion. At first, I would have assumed they had actually invested the money and lost it on the bond market collapse. But that was perhaps too traditional. Here, it appears they were trying to defend their own cryptocurrency and trying to buy the low that kept moving lower. It appears he was allegedly simply using clients’ funds to trade keeping gains for his firm and the clients now suffer the risk.

It appears that they allegedly were trying to defend the crypto market and did not understand that the boom was over. The loans could not then be repaid. As crypto was crashing, some people needed to cash out. The attempt to pull out US$5bn from FTX exposed the fact that the cash was all gone. This is not so unusual. It has happened before. This time, the prosecutors are clamoring to be the one to charge him so they can become famous over his dead body.

FTX was a partner with Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum (WEF). Of course, the WEF has suddenly removed the page and is desperately trying to hide their involvement with FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried. Naturally, eliminating paper currency has been the goal of the WEF because they support the end of not just capitalism, but also democracy. Schwab’s push has been his Great Reset and to control society to impose his economic philosophy inspired by Marx and Lenin.

Corsine-2

This is by no means the first violation of fiduciary responsibility that presents a custodial risk. MF Global Holdings Ltd., you might recall, was a firm formerly run by New Jersey ex-Gov. Jon Corzine was accused in 2013 of unlawfully using customer money to meet his firm’s funding needs. When MF Global went bust because of trading by ex-Goldman Sach’s Jon Corzine’s trading using his client’s money in London also outside the regulatory eye of the USA, he was NEVER prosecuted for illegally using $1.6 billion of 26,000 client’s money. That is not going to be the case this time. So what is the difference between Corzine and Bankman-Fried? Corzine was ex-Goldman Sachs.

Indeed, Corzine was well-connected right into the White House with Obama. Nobody went to jail and clients had to wait in bankruptcy to get their money – even cash in the accounts was taken. There are clear risks with the broker and clearer. As long as the SEC is run with former Goldman Sachs staff, there will NEVER be an honest regulator. Even when all the banks pled criminally guilty, the SEC exempted everyone from losing their licenses. They would NEVER do that with anyone outside of New York City. The SEC will never prosecute the banks – EVER!!!!

Indeed, several federal investigations had been launched into MF Global, including probes by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (its main regulator), the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and Justice Department prosecutors in both Chicago and New York. The brokerage has also been the focus of several congressional hearings. Not a single one charged Corzine with trading with his client’s money. The losses that eventually drove MF Global into bankruptcy stemmed from high-risk bets on European sovereign bonds that Corzine made as he swung for the fences. Corzine bet big that the bond issuers would not default.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission simply fined Jon Corzine only $5 million over MF Global’s rapid descent into bankruptcy on Oct. 31, 2011, as an estimated $1.6 billion of customer money went missing. Anyone else would have been in prison for a minimum of 20 years.

Glenn

It was Martin Glenn who was the judge in New York on M.F. Global bankruptcy. He was the first one to engage in FORCED LOANS by abandoning the rule of law to help the bankers by protecting them from losses taking client accounts to cover M.F. Global’s losses. He simply allowed the confiscation of client funds when in fact the rule of law should have been that the bankers were responsible and M.F. Global’s losses should have been reversed as they did even when Robert Maxwell’s companies failed in London from his illegal trading taking employee pension funds.

Yes, that was Ghislaine Maxwell’s father and the guy who was in control of the company that Bill Browder worked for before Edmond Safra. Never should the client’s funds be taken for M.F. Global’s losses to the NY Bankers. It was Judge Martin Glen who placed the entire financial; system at risk by trying to protect the bankers. Martin Glenn pampered these bankers making them the new UNTOUCHABLES. We have to be concerned that there really is no rule of law that will protect you in a crisis.

On Bloomberg TV, Sam Bankman-Fried explained why he even created FTX. He said he was experiencing his own frustration at Alameda Research, which was his crypto-focused proprietary trading firm. He was frustrated with the execution he was receiving at various crypto exchanges so he claimed that inspired FTX’s creation in May 2019. FTX grew rapidly to become the third largest crypto exchange in the world, with approximately $16 billion of customer assets under custody over 43 months.

Bankman-Fried stated that Alameda was making lots of money, but it could have been making more and he did not have access to venture capital. Claims of 100% annualized returns are not uncommon in a boom, but any experienced trader knows what goes up, also comes down. Alameda was relying on “cobbling together lines of credit” to expand its capital base. He then created FTX to solve his funding problem creating his own exchange that even the WEF cheered as a partner. He actually created a platform that was tailored for his own company, Alameda, to facilitate its trading needs. FTX coined the phrase “built by traders, for traders.”

There was an obvious conflict of interest questions regarding the close relationship between FTX and Alameda. Being operated from the Bahamas raised questions among those of us who are seasoned financial market observers whether the two were truly arm’s length from each other. However, people were so pumped up on adrenalin with crypto being the end of the dollar and central banks that this new free-wheeling crypto world believed what they wanted to believe and never looked too closely. FTX operated outside the reach of the US regulatory domain and there was a lack of any fiduciary confirmation. When the founder of Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao, openly questioned the soundness of the FTX/Alameda nexus on Twitter saying he would sell over $500 million worth of FTX’s token FTT, that was the kiss of death weather or not he realized he would unleash a crypto panic that would engulf the entire industry in a matter of days.

The collapse of FTX will now become a contagion for the crypto world. This 20-something group of inexperienced traders has signaled the demise of an industry that was getting all the hype with no substance. This crypto world will be seen as the DOT COM Bubble of 2000. With a recession on the horizon, the collapse of sovereign debt, and the monetary system as a whole, people will be looking for more of the safe bets rather than roll the dice on crypto. Nothing ever goes straight down. But by year-end, the volatility should perk up everyone’s view of the world.