QUESTION: Marty, It was a fantastic WEC. You tied it all together brilliantly and how the real issue is this liquidity crisis. Suddenly the ECB came out and said that inflation will not subside given a recession. It appears they were watching the WEC. Do you think that the ECB is at least listening now?
ANSWER: For Christine Lagarde to publicly state that a “mild recession” will not reduce inflation is admitting that inflation has been instigated by COVID lockdowns that disrupted the supply chain and unleashed shortages. The Bank of England has come out and stated that we will see the longest recession in 100 years.
The ECB has just forced banks to repay their loans withdrawing $300 billion euros from the banking system in a desperate effort to stop inflation. This will not help for Legarde knows that even an economic recession will not prevent this type of inflation that is more akin to the STAGFLATION of the ’70s where costs rose thanks to the OPEC crisis and where we have the COVID Crisis that created shortages mixed with the climate change zealots determined to end fossil fuels despite the fact there are no alternatives. How do you even make steel without coal?
Everything is now unfolding on schedule. We are facing 2023 which will be known as the year of chaos.
Thank you to the reader who sent in this hilarious image. Despite all the incoming data and price instability, some expected the Fed to pivot on its stance. Even BlackRock reportedly told advisers to expect “pivot language” at the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting. They were hoping that the Fed would announce a looser stance for the December meeting despite conditions failing to improve.
The markets correctly anticipated a 75 bps hike for November. Jerome Powell said that incoming data from the last meeting has led the central bank to believe that rates will edge HIGHER than originally anticipated. PCE rose 6.2% over the past 12 months, with core PCE rising by 5.1%. Long ago after Powell changed his “transitory” stance, he reiterated that the Fed’s main goal is to bring levels back to the 2% target. Price stability is the top priority – period.
The central bank realizes that the situation will only worsen. “Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices in the longer run. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course, until the job is done,” Powell commented. His Q&A after the announcement only reiterated his extremely hawkish stance (see video above).
Powell said the Federal Reserve is honing in on three main factors: 1) how fast to tighten policy, 2) how high to raise rates, 3) how long to remain on the current course. Powell said they would move “expeditiously” to move rates, especially given the low starting point. He believes that incoming data justifies ongoing rate hikes, and his estimate is higher than what was announced in September. Finally, he said they might have a discussion on when to loosen policy, but there was an emphasis on the word discussion.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 2, 2022 | Sundance
It’s all a ruse; an economic shell game being played for politics – nothing more.
Consider this quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell today, “Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in September, total PCE prices rose 6.2 percent. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories core PCE prices rose 5.1 percent. And the recent inflation data again have come in higher than expected. Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services. Russia’s war against Ukraine has boosted prices for energy and food and has created additional upward pressure on inflation.” (source)
You can argue Powell’s points of demand side inflation all day long, it matters not. It’s nonsense. Take interest rates to 10%, or even eleventy percent, and that will not stop inflation because demand is not creating it. Current inflation is a supply side issue, driven by a radical change in energy policy. I have made this case for well over a year, sooner or later people are going to have to stop believing the demand side nonsense.
As Powell himself noted, “with today’s action, we’ve raised interest rates by 3 ¾ percentage points this year,” and yet inflation hasn’t flinched. Why? Because there was no excess consumer demand to tame all year. Demand for consumer goods has been in a freefall since the fall of 2021, while the prices of those goods have remained on an upward trajectory because costs associated with producing them continue rising. That’s a supply side inflation issue, not demand – but Powell cannot admit it.
Powell […] “Even so, we still have some ways to go. And incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected. Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible.
We’re taking forceful steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.”
If you want to take the pretending out of the paragraph and make it truthful, insert the word energy:
“We’re taking forceful steps to moderate [energy] demand, so that it comes into better alignment with [policy driven energy] supply.”
There. THAT’S THE TRUTH !!
Ask yourself, or anyone else, this simple question:
...At what point in the process of raising interest rates does the price of gasoline, home heating, natural gas, electricity, diesel fuel or food start to drop?
How does a 15% federal interest rate lower food prices?
The title speaks for itself. The Fed is going to continue raising rates until inflation shows notable improvement. Some still question whether the Fed will ease on its hawkish policies, but there is absolutely every indication to believe they will continue at full speed. Core PCE rose 4.9% in August from the year prior and increased 0.6% for the month.
Before the aforementioned data was released, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said he was “cautiously optimistic” that the US could avoid a recession. “There are lags in monetary policy and we have moved expeditiously. We have done three 75 basis point increases in a row and there is a talk of more to get to that 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of the year, you’re not leaving much time to sort of look at each monthly release,” Evans, who is set to retire next year, said.
The truth of the matter is that the White House simply changed the definition of a recession. The majority is hurting financially right now, and I don’t think we need the talking heads to tell us that we are already in a recession. The typical analysis looks only at domestic conditions, but internationally, most central banks are in the process of raising rates and backtracking on failed QE policies.
Every month there are reports of the market being “spooked” by rate hikes. People come on TV and act surprised that the Fed has the audacity to raise rates yet again. Why? Powell stated in every possible way that the FOMC will raise rates for “some time.” In Powell language, that means rates will continue to rise for a while. The computer foresees havoc going into 2023. Things must get worse before they become better. Unemployment must rise, rates must go higher, and you must adjust your strategy accordingly.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 21, 2022 | sundance
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced another 75-point increase in federal interest rates today. This is the third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase. Additionally, Fed policymakers have pledged to continue raising rates as high as 4.6% in 2023.
While Powell walked through his reasoning to continue targeting inflation by lowering consumer demand, not once in any of his remarks did he mention energy policy driving up the cost of materials and goods. The Great Pretending continues. WATCH:
The Fed chair is trying to manage the economic policy transition by reducing economic activity to match intentionally diminished energy supplies. Lowering economic activity drops demand for energy. Unfortunately, as admitted by Powell on August 26, 2022, in Jackson Hole, this means a period of “some pain” for Americans as the central banks join together in an effort to lower consumption.
What does “some pain” mean? It means lower incomes, higher prices, lowered standards of living and more scarce resources. During this transition to owning nothing and being happy about it, the pain is your wealth being stripped as the economy is intentionally diminished.
We will not be able to afford much; we won’t be able to afford the foods we want; we will not be able to purchase anything except the essentials, and those essentials will cost much more; we won’t be able to vacation, travel, or enjoy recreational activities; we won’t be able to afford any indulgences; but at the end of the process, we will learn to live more meager existences based on lowered expectations needed for sustaining the planet. Pay no attention to the elites who don’t have those concerns, comrade.