Tag Archives: Euro

Jun 15 2021

Been There, Done That


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts RE-Posted Jun 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Are you familiar with that studies of pundits have shown that their forecasts are no better than chance. You seem to be in the category of what those studies at Penn University by Philip Tetlock called “superforecasters”. Would you care to comment on how you are right so often when others never are?

UT

ANSWER: I am not familiar with those studies on forecasting but it makes sense. The vast majority of forecasting is nothing more than opinion. That is why they are rarely correct. Even Barron’s took a shot at me because in 2010, the forecast was that we were entering a bull market with new highs on the horizon following the crash of 2007-2009. Of course, Barron’s never wrote another piece to say the forecast was correct. Barron’s acknowledged I had forecast the 1987 Crash. But they never reviewed everything.

The press likes pundits to talk opinion. They are not really interested in forecasting. If they were, they would do a serious article on all our forecasts concerning the methodology that has been correct for a single reason — history repeats. Socrates puts the entire world together and maps out the capital flows. Just follow the money — that will mean you will be far more correct than sticking your finger in the air to judge the direction of the wind.

Stone Age Grave

History repeats because human nature never changes throughout the millennium. We are a species that will never change because human nature remains the same since the dawn of time. There are Stone Age graves with people buried with dignity. The most amazing find so far of a Stone Age grave was of a female and two children hugging each other. They were carefully arranged in this position. This strongly indicated they had spiritual beliefs and cared for their dead, but most of all, it showed love.

Throughout millennia, people before recorded history showed how that they cared for one another. They also showed a consistent belief in the hereafter. There are even dozens of burials in the southwestern Siberian village of Staryi Tartas, where human remains were positioned in pairs facing each other. The rare couple burials are among 600 graves dating to between the 17th and 14th centuries BC from the Bronze Age Andronovo culture. Even in the Stone Age, there was respect for the dead shows love existed then as it does today among our species.

This respect has been a tradition in human communities that appears from the very beginning. But Socrates cannot answer that question. It can show the correlations with religions and demonstrate the similarities of cultures around a central belief system. It cannot confirm or deny the existence of an afterlife. That becomes opinion.

Human nature endures. We travel through time, and technology progresses with our knowledge. However, emotionally we remain very much the same. Society MUST move through these crash and burn periods. It is how we progress through history. We learn only through our mistakes — never our victories.

Therefore, the correct forecasts are not because of my personal opinion or some guess. Everything is based upon history and what that reveals is straightforward. Given the same circumstance, human nature will ALWAYS respond in the same manner, like an animal cornered will stand and fight even if it is a possum that normally plays dead. The future becomes understandable ONLY when you understand the past.

Jun 7 2021

Moonbat Parseltongue, Secretary Janet Yellen Blames COVID for Inflation Today Because Everything Was Cheaper Last Year


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2021 | Sundance | 109 Comments

Boy I’m glad she decided to take one last question at the end of her G7 Finance Minister press conference, because that one question was the one that mattered…. and it didn’t come from a U.S. journalist (go figure).

In this Q&A with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen she is asked about massive ongoing inflation and why she is not worried about it from a U.S. monetary policy perspective.  Her reply is jaw dropping.  [Video at 25:10 prompted]

First, note the words used “my personal opinion is“, that’s a key *tell* that she is now shifting from economic discussion into the manipulated words of a U.S. political appointee who is in place to support the absolutely insane policies of the JoeBama administration.   However, what she follows with is beyond absurd… it’s professionally false and filled with gaslighting.

Yellen says the COVID pandemic caused “DEFLATION” in 2020 and we are now circling back to year-over-year comparisons in pricing, and that is creating the illusion of inflation where no inflation exists.  She claims pricing is returning to where it was at pre-pandemic levels.  This is an absolutely absurd statement that every single reader of this site can see, feel and absorb in their own lives.

Her example of Airline prices returning to pre-pandemic levels is devoid of reality.  Airline prices are dramatically escalating because fuel and energy prices have risen 40% or more over the past five months.  When the airline industry was hit by COVID impact, to manage costs they shut down operations – reduced flights, put planes out of commission, eliminated on flight services (food beverages), and downsized their entire industry.  They did not significantly lower prices.

Secondly, Housing prices did not drop…. rents did not lower… mortgage rates did not decrease…  grocery store food prices did not drop (they went up)… “Away from home” food prices did not drop (they stopped or stayed the same),…. the cost of cars, hard goods, durable products, did not drop.  Nothing dropped in price.  Instead the sellers of products and services modified their businesses (or shut down) to adjust to the drop in customers.  Barbers and hair stylists did not lower prices…. nothing dropped.

Businesses did not, DID NOT, lower prices.   If anything, they added surcharges for modifications to their business.

Inflation rates this year have absolutely nothing to do with lower prices last year and “return to normal” prices this year.   She is selling nonsense.

THAT is professional gaslighting from the Treasury Secretary of the United States.  Quite remarkable.

May 10 2021

April Jobs Report Shows JoeBama Creating Successful Socialist Utopia – Jobs Gains Stunningly Below Expectations, With Downward Revisions for Feb, March


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 7, 2021 | Sundance | 134 Comments

Economic forecasters had predicted one million job gains in April.  The actual results are “stunningly” and “unexpectedly” far below the expectations.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics [SEE HERE] reveals only 266,000 jobs gained in April and downward revisions of March by -146,000.  There are almost 7.4 million jobs available; however, despite the available jobs, no-one is going back to work.

Yes, JoeBama’s “free government money” has created the socialist utopia.

The politically correct economic analysts are shocked that minorities (blacks and latinos) are not going back to work; while ignoring the disincentive that government handouts have created in the JoeBama economy.  The entire dynamic is ridiculous when you consider we should be entering a phase of the jobs economy where vaccination and COVID mitigation should be leading to massive reopenings of the economy overall.

Inside the numbers, the economic sectors showing the worst jobs recovery are directly related to the blue state shut-downs.  Worse yet, there is an underlying scenario showing the economy is not growing despite the ability of businesses to re-open overall.  That spells even more trouble.

(CNBC) – “Today’s report was an enormous surprise and shows the labor market hit a hidden pothole in April,” Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao tells CNBC Make It. “Clearly, the labor market has decelerated quite a bit.”

The 6.1% unemployment rate and 9.8 million people unemployed remained steady in April compared with the months prior. (more)

There is no level of spin that can change the reality of this situation.  JoeBama’s economic policies are exactly the wrong thing to be doing.  Everything, and I do mean every single policy objective, delivered by this administration is AMERICA LAST!

Hiring was a huge letdown in April, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by a much less than expected 266,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. Dow Jones estimates had been for 1 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.8%. CNBC’s Jim Cramer discusses what he thinks led to the surprising report.

May 7 2021

Beijing Beats New York City


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted May 6, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

A number of people often send nasty emails because they do not like the forecast that China will become the next financial capital of the world. The forecasts we put out are NOT based upon my OPINION. I simply report what the computer projects. This Great Reset is playing right into our forecast, for they are deliberately destroying the economy so they can “BUILD BACK BETTER,” as they like to say.

The problem is that they are ignorant of world history. The victor in war is NOT simply the person who has the largest army. There must be some advantage and that boils down to economics. The one with the strongest economy is the victor because they have the capacity to fund the war.

This is why barbarians could never invade Rome until the Roman Empire’s monetary system began to collapse following the capital of Emperor VBalerian I in 260AD. Even Alexander the Great was able to take the Persians because they lost their greatest and were unable to defend against a well-supported army. The South lost against the North in the American Civil War because the North was industrial whereas the South was primarily agrarian.

Deliberately destroying our economy so they can “Build Back Better” while creating food shortages and trying to end raising cattle because of CO2, has set the West on the course to economic decline. This has made the West vulnerable just as was the case with the Roman Empire.

Now everyone is starting to notice and even CNBC says that China will surpass the United States by 2028. Granted, the analytical field seems to notice trends of this nature only when it smacks them in their face. We published the report “China on the Rise” back in 2018.

Now New York City, thanks to Socialists who think they can keep taxing the rich without end,   lost its title as the home of more billionaires than anywhere else. Beijing has now taken that title. Some people think my reliance on history is foolish. History repeats because human nature is always the same.

Mainz

New York is dying. It is, in trading terms, a major SHORT! NYC is following the same path as Mainz. It was the city of Mainz where the Gutenberg printing press was invented. This created an economic boom and everyone wanted to be in Mainz. The politicians saw the boom and presumed the potential tax revenue was linear and would be endless – judging tomorrow by today’s trend. They began to borrow against what they anticipated would be there forever. As they needed the interest to pay for borrowing and became addicted to debt, they raised taxes.

The taxes kept rising so they killed the economic boom and people began to leave. Mainz followed the typical path as we are doing today. They were no longer paying off debt. They entered the Ponzi scheme – issued new debt to pay off the old in a revolving bond auction. Taxes kept rising and people migrated. The printing press was no longer unique to Mainz. The rich left town, taking their capital and entrepreneurship with them. When Mainz lost the confidence of the bond buyers and could no longer sell new debt to pay for the old, the collapse unfolded. Mainz, like Detroit, defaulted. The creditors sacked the city and it was burned to the ground.

The same precise pattern unfolds every time – WITHOUT EXCEPTION. Why? Human nature never changes. Create career politicians and they will always seek to expand government for that is their power base. All that is left is a nice monument commemorating Guttenberg. Of course, they never tell the full story of Mainz.

New York City is making all the same mistakes like clockwork. They think people can be exploited without end. There comes a point where it no longer is beneficial to work as a slave. Why invest in anything if those in power simply want to take whatever you invent.

I pray for 2032 to end corruption and drive a stake through the heart of republican forms of government. We need a new path and anyone who calls for exploiting one class to benefit another should be subject to life imprisonment where they can enjoy carefree and tax-free living in a world of equality.

May 6 2021

Shortage of Chickens


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The orchestrated COVID pandemic to change the economy for the BUILD BACK BETTER Great Reset has set in motion food shortages that are now emerging. Farmers have had to plow their crops under, and one had to kill over 30,000 chickens because they simply could not get them to market. Sales of produced collapsed as much as 75% in 2020 compared to 2019 in some areas. Even in Europe, the cold weather has destroyed crops. As I have said, these morons look at the world only in a single dimension. They had no idea that locking people down to lower CO2 meant that they were also cutting off the supply chain in technology to food.

There is a shortage now of chickens, and don’t worry, it will move to beef as well. Add their scheme for a cyber attack, and the future looks really crazy because nobody will lock these people up, no less dare to investigate them. So be warned. This will get far worse post-2024. We should all send a thank you note to Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates for starters.