Bucha – the False Flag to Cross the Rubicon


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Apr 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

We are crossing the Rubicon but this time it is not to free society from a corrupt Senate, it is the Corrupt Senate determined to create a New World Order by destroying everything familiar about the society we now know. As always, it is difficult to separate truth from sheer hatred that has engulfed the world thanks to Zelensky and our insane President Biden. The DOUBLE STANDARDS are so in-your-face corrupt that it is hard to ignore comparing Vietnam & Ukraine.

A suburban avenue in Bucha became one of the first graveyards in Russia’s attempt to encircle Kyiv in the face of Zelensky’s refusal to negotiate in good faith. The Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers moved through the town of Bucha on their way to the city of Kyiv. The convoy was destroyed in one of the first of many Ukrainian ambushes that stopped the Russian advance. While Zelensky points to civilian casualties, he takes no responsibility for arming civilians and telling them to first professional Russian soldiers.

Biden on Monday called for a war crimes trial against Putin following reports of the mass killing of Ukraine civilians by Russian troops in a suburb of Kyiv. Of course, there is no proof that this is just not another false flag by Zelensky who is determined to destroy the world for make no mistake – this is the end result.

Biden yelled: “He‘s a war criminal,” when asked about the reports of Ukraine civilians being slaughtered allegedly by Russian troops in Bucha, which sits northwest of Kyiv, the Ukraine capital. Biden added: “This guy is brutal and what’s happening in Bucha is outrageous and everyone’s seen it.” Biden WANTS TO TAKE THE WORLD INTO WAR WHERE MILLIONS WILL DIE. He is pushing for war, never peace, with every breath he takes. “I think it’s a war crime,” Biden said. “He should be held accountable.”

“You may remember, I got criticized last month for calling Putin a war criminal,” Mr. Biden said. “Well, the truth of the matter is you saw what happened in Bucha. This warrants him — he is a war criminal.”

Calling Putin a war criminal is outrageous. The same standard could have been applied then to President Johnson simply be he too authorized the Vietnam War of fake news. The Mỹ Lai massacre was the mass murder of unarmed South Vietnamese civilians by United States troops in Sơn Tịnh District, South Vietnam, on March 16th, 1968 during the Vietnam War. They were UNARMED and were not ambushing Americans. Between 347 and 504 unarmed people were killed by U.S. Army soldiers.

The difference there was that the Mỹ Lai massacre victims included men, women, children, and infants. Some of the women were gang-raped and their bodies mutilated, as were female girls as young as 12. Twenty-six soldiers were charged with criminal offenses, but only Lieutenant William Calley Jr., a platoon leader in C Company, was convicted. Found guilty of murdering 22 villagers, he was originally given a life sentence but served three-and-a-half years under house arrest never went to prison, and had his sentence then commuted.

Biden wants now the US to invade Russia, capture Putin, and put him on trial in International Criminal Court which the US refuses to join so no American can ever be tried for a war crime. The list is endless for all the war crimes by the United States in Afghanistan. Iraq, Lybia, Syria, and Pakistan, but the US will NEVER allow any American to be tried for a war crime. The American press will not tell the truth about how the US exempts itself from war crime allegations and trials. This has added to the image of the United States is seen as arrogant and hypocritical.

Biden’s demands to try Putin as a war criminal is now the final straw. This means there will be NO World Peace. Biden is out to commit American genocide to commit American troops brainwashing them that they are fighting for some noble cause. This is all about destroying our world so he and Klaus can BUILD BACK BETTER and achieve their New World Order. You cannot BUILD BACK BETTER until you destroy everything first.

Was Bucha a FALSE FLAG EVENT? There is little doubt that we will NEVER know the truth because Zelensky and Biden have guaranteed that this will be the battle cry to destroy the world. It is very convenient – too convenient if you ask me. The talk behind the curtain is that Biden will require a digital ID when he implements food rationing as part of our necessary war against Putin.

Zelensky’s hatred has now set the world on its course. I warned that he would be the man to create World War III. Our computer targeted Ukraine as the spot where it would begin back in 2013. I wish these things were just my opinion for there would be a 50/50 chance I am wrong. We have crossed the Rubicon – the point of no return. Our models for the Decline and Fall of the United States we published back in 1985 was that it would begin cyclically with the 46th president. Hello – he is here!

House Votes to Legalize Marijuana


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Apr 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Individual states began legalizing marijuana a few years ago after the 1969 Supreme Court decision led to the Controlled Substance Act of 1970. Now, the House has voted to legalize marijuana on the Federal level despite President Biden’s sudden opposition. This is all linked to the Sovereign Debt Crisis – turn down the economy, and governments will begin to legalize what is illegal to profit.

The Mexican Revolution began in 1910 and ran into about 1920. A large number of Mexicans immigrated to the US to escape the conflict. This Mexican population had its own uses for cannabis, and they referred to it as “marihuana.” The initial marijuana tax was intended to criminally prosecute Mexicans who were widely seen as taking American jobs during the hard times. Fake news stories ran rampant about people becoming crazed by “marihuana” and harming society. Back in 1937, Congress imposed drastic new regulations and taxes on marijuana, cocaine, and opium, which was then legal. The drugs were taxed before legislation changed.

In 1967, President Johnson’s Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of justice opined, “The Act raises an insignificant amount of revenue and exposes an insignificant number of marijuana transactions to public view, since only a handful of people are registered under the Act. It has become, in effect, solely – a criminal law, imposing sanctions upon persons who sell, acquire, or possess marijuana.”

The law certainly caused damage as prisons profited. Some estimates claim that 40,000 people are currently serving time in US prisons and jails for marijuana-related offenses. In 2019, US authorities arrested 350,149 people for possessing marijuana. Biden initially campaigned with a promise to legalize marijuana, citing racism as well since a disproportionate (24%) of those incarcerated for marijuana are black. But like all politicians, Biden is not fully supportive of the Marijuana Opportunity, Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act that passed 220-204.

Legalizing marijuana would be a lucrative venture, as Canada already has witnessed. I mentioned in January that the state of Arizona saw $1.23 billion in sales 11 months after legalizing recreational marijuana. The Marijuana Excise Tax that the state-imposed contributed $92.9 million to community colleges and health departments, while $7.3 million will go toward an education sales tax. Biden wants to continually spend money while destroying any potential to generate revenue.

Comments & Free Markets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Mar 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT #1: Well, at least I got the decline accelerating in the Ruble correct and thanks to your models knew the war and commodity cycles were turning up. Getting the fundamentals correct ahead of time is a work in progress and definitely not easy.

But while watching the Ruble crashing into weakness going into the ECM, one could not reverse position and go long the RUB. Heck, nobody could even open new positions and definitely not buy the RUB. All that was allowed was closing already existing positions. And now the RUB was even removed from the trading platform altogether.

So my original trading strategy of shorting and then going long RUB got cut short and max profits throw out the window. So much for free markets.

EM

COMMENT #2: Marty you have proven your model and computer is the key to running governments for the future living with the cycle. It is easy to see why the CIA wanted your model pinpointing Ukraine almost 10 years in advance as the key spot for war. It is also interesting how others prefer not to ever mention you for your work is not opinion like everyone else. I really hope you succeed in securing Socrates for the world long-term. We all can learn so much.

All the best from Poland

and thanks for the conference that you did here in Warsaw

VA

REPLY: The free markets are not so free. During the Civil War, even President Lincoln went after trading gold and argued those people were making money off of every battle. The EU wanted to take trading the Euro away from London because of BREXIT. The people running these governments will NEVER honor the free markets when they go against them.

Yes, it was very nice to meet everyone in Warsaw. I had not been there before. I am doing my best to make sure Socrates continues beyond my shelf life. The problem is that the world is run by the seat of its pants and it is always based upon bias, prejudice, and power-plays driven by ego. I think some people just need to have an enemy and no matter what changes, they ignore that to keep the hatred ongoing.

There are people who still call China Communist even though there is private ownership which is the opposite of communism. They will continue to hate China no matter what and that in turn only invokes a response to counter that trend. Biases like that prevent us from ever moving forward and society is at times like a scratched record playing the same track over and over again.

The Fed Has Spoken


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Dec 17, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Federal Open Market Committee plans to taper its asset purchasing program by $30 billion per month. Starting in January, the central bank will begin buying $60 billion in bonds monthly, citing “inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market.”

As for interest rates, the Fed is considering as many as three rate hikes in 2020, followed by two additional hikes in 2024. This comes after the Fed artificially lowered rates to near zero for the longest amount of time in the history of the Federal Reserve.

“With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment,” the central bank stated. Unemployment reached a post-pandemic low of 4.2% last month, but nearly 7 million Americans are still unemployed.  “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation,” the statement continued. Now, the central bank believes inflation will somehow reach 2.6% in 2020, with core inflation dropping to 2.7%.

The central bank sees reduced GDP growth this year, dropping the forecast to 5.5% from 5.9%. GDP in 2022 is now estimated to reach 4%, and 2.2% in 2023.

Joe Biden’s $600 IRS Reporting Requirement Was Already Put Into Law Inside Obamacare, Then Repealed in 2011 – The Current Proposal Is Just Another Way to Return to The 2010 Objective


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 14, 2021 | Sundance | 94 Comments

For those who have been following politics for a while, you might have remembered something about $600 and IRS reporting from a decade ago when Obamacare was passed.

Within the 2010 Obamacare mess, “It was added that payments for goods more than $600 in a 12 month period needed to be reported as well as services. Obamacare further provided that, beginning in 2012, payments to non-tax-exempt corporations—which had previously been exempt from the reporting requirement—would be subject to information reporting.” (link)

The 2010 tax law was actually enacted, briefly, and was scheduled to take effect in the 2012 tax year.

I well remember at the time everyone was like WTF, I’ve got to fill out a 1099 any time I give $600 to a service provider or business?

Yes, the embedded law inside the Obamacare law meant that anyone who paid any person or business $600 or more for a good or service was supposed to fill out a 1099 tax filing reporting the transaction to the IRS.

The political premise of the law was so obvious, stupid and cumbersome in 2011, after Obama’s 2010 mid term election “shellacking“, one of the first acts of a new republican congress was to repeal that ridiculous segment of the law.  As it was noted at the time:

[…] “Essentially, with President Obama, signing into law H.R. 4 [2011], the reporting rules now revert back to what they were before the 2010 legislation (Obamacare and Small Business Jobs Act) was passed.  We are now back to where we were before the government started monkeying around with things in the first place.” (read more)

So, for those of you paying attention; and for those of you who realize Joe Biden is just a false front for Obama’s third term; indeed the current 2021 effort by the Treasury Department to require banking notifications to the IRS for $600 transactions looks exactly like what Obama’s team previously tried in 2010.

♦ The difference this time is they are switching the reporting requirement from the individual taxpayer to the financial institution.  THE GOAL IS THE SAME.

Here is where you need to remember that Barack Obama and his Alinsky crew used the IRS as a weapon against their political opposition. {GO Deep}  The IRS even settled a class action lawsuit in 2018 giving the Tea Party groups $3.5 million in a settlement, and the IRS admitted they were targeting Obama’s political opposition.

The Joe Biden proposal to create an entirely new reporting regime for financial accounts that exceed $600 should be alarming to taxpayers. If this proposal is implemented, it is inevitable that we will see new cases of the IRS targeting and harassing taxpayers.

It is not a coincidence the $600 threshold is the same in the Joe Biden 2021 Treasury Department effort as it was in the Barack Obama 2010 effort.  The Alinsky crew know they can then control “who” to apply this target regulation toward.

Just like the DOJ-NSD only targeted Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA) violations toward the political opposition of Democrats; and predictably just like any OSHA vaccine penalty will only be targeted toward political opposition of Democrats; and just like the IRS was previously weaponized through the DOJ to target political opposition of Democrats; so too will these $600 treasury notifications provide the basis for another round of political targeting.

We have a clear history to fall back on here.   This is what Saul Alinsky taught them to do….

[…] The IRS Criminal Investigation Division (IRS-CI) regularly violated taxpayers’ rights and skirted or ignored due process requirements when investigating taxpayers for allegedly violating the $10,000 currency transaction reporting requirements, according to a 2017 report by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA). In addition, less than one in ten investigations uncovered violations of tax law.

These findings should be alarming to taxpayers given that President Biden has proposed creating a new comprehensive financial account information reporting regime which would force the disclosure of any business or personal account that exceeds $600. Not only would this include the bank, loan, and investment accounts of virtually every individual and business, but it would also include third-party providers like Venmo, CashApp, and PayPal. (read more)

White House Chief of Staff Is Not Worried About ‘The Help’ Dealing With Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 14, 2021 | Sundance | 213 Comments

If you are wonder whether the White House is concerned about the middle-class being impacted by massive increases in gasoline, high home heating costs, extreme food inflation and empty shelves…   Well, the message from White House chief of staff Ron Klain is very telling:

Apparently feeding your family and making ends meet is a “high class problem.”

The elitism and disconnect from the average American always shows up when you look at DC democrats writ large.   They always talk down to those they view as ‘the help’.

Schumer Confirms the Deep State Runs the Country


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Here is that interview people have asked about where Chuck Schumer confirms that no politicians will EVER investigate the intelligence branch — NSA, CIA, FBI, or DOJ. They hold unbridled power to do as they like when they like.

The probability that the CIA took out John F. Kennedy has long been suspected, and the CIA has refused to release documents that Congress had sealed for 50 years. They claim it is a national security issue, and if it were Russia, they would be flouting that documentation all over the press. The ONLY reason to refuse to release documents is that they will lead to the intelligence community who wanted to start the war with Vietnam, which Kennedy opposed.

There is the declassified proposal that Kennedy also rejected. The CIA wanted to kill Americans and then blame it on Castro to justify invading Cuba. And people wonder about 9/11? The Russian hack that they boast was discovered by the intelligence community never took place. Russians never hacked the Democratic Party servers.

Welcome to the land of the free, where our claimed elected officials are afraid to investigate the intelligence community. Schumer calls Trump stupid, for he should have known how powerful they really were. They wanted Biden so they could do as they liked whenever. Calling Trump stupid for criticizing the intelligence community confirms that neither he nor anyone else in Washington would dare to shake up or stir the intelligence community.

Inflation to Rise into 2034?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation continued to surge, reaching 5.4% in September. Janet Yellen has never been right about anything and keeps calling this “transitory,” as if it will vanish in a few weeks. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, which is supposed to measure a basket of goods and services as well as energy and food costs, came in at 5.4% in September from a year earlier, well beyond expectations. However, our model was projecting a rise in inflation into 2021 which is 13 years up from the November 2008 low. It is interesting how the COVID restrictions with lockdowns came in on target with our computer’s forecast. Curious how events seem to fulfill the forecast when it is done by a computer rather than human judgment.

Nevertheless, as you can see from the chart, inflation has bounced on a month/month basis, but it has not yet reached the Downtrend Line. The long-term forecast beyond a mere decade projects the historical high will be due in 2034, which should exceed all previous highs. A month/month number above 1.05% will signal that inflation is breaking out, and we will indeed make all-time record highs going into 2034.

4.3 Million Quit Jobs in August – Vaccines?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The numbers are out — 4.3 million people in the US quit their jobs in August. This is the largest number since 2000. The leading sector is hotels and restaurants. I have a friend who has a daughter who had two jobs. She worked as a waitress/bartender at night and at a health food store during the day. She was very industrious, to say the least, and quite impressive. However, she quit the health food job because they demanded a vaccine. She said the bar owner was going to impose a vaccine rule and more than 50% of the staff said they would quit.

Meanwhile, New York’s bars and restaurants are hurting for business because of the vaccine mandates. Our most honorable leaders, who are most likely taking money from Pfizer lobbyists worldwide, are realizing that resistance is not futile. You can mandate vaccines and pretend they are 100% safe, but the truth always surfaces. The people can bring down the entire system if they simply refuse to participate.

Many journalists are too busy selling Biden’s propaganda about the vaccines. The FDA admits there are risks, but they, in their sole discretion, announced they “believe” the benefits outweigh the risk without any explanation of the analysis or a single word of caution (e.g., if you have certain conditions, you should not take the vaccine) despite doing so for other vaccines. So while the press and the Biden Administration are ignoring the facts and the trend, this only raises the question: How much has Pfizer and Moderna paid you?

Jen Psaki Tells Stunning and Dangerous Lies About Transitory Inflation, Claims Price Increases Will Stop – They Won’t


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2021 | Sundance | 249 Comments

I do not expect White House Spokesperson Jennifer Psaki to understand how her bosses policies are driving massive price increases; nor do I expect Psaki to understand economics and inflationary impacts.  However, the scale of her false statements surrounding inflation are not just false, they are now dangerous.

Following the release of the consumer price index [SEE table 2], in her press briefing today, Jen Psaki outlined the White House perspective on inflation, and specifically the Fed claims surrounding “transitory inflation.”

In her statements today, Psaki referenced people comparing the prices of 2021 consumable goods to 2020 and 2019.  [Video prompted below] Within the statements, the scale of falsity is off the charts.  WATCH [Video at 19:00 to 22:42, prompted]

There is not one single thing about that three minute verbal exchange that is accurate.  Fast turn consumable goods, groceries etc., did not drop in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic.  Factually, all goods but especially consumable goods increased in price throughout the pandemic, because demand actually increased and the supply chains were unable to keep up.

Example.  A loaf of bread at $2.50 in 2019, climbed to $3.00 in 2020.  That price jumped again to $3.75 this year (2021) and will likely continue rising as monetary policy driven inflation continues devaluing our currency.

Even if, as Psaki claims, inflation slows down  (not likely) – “decelerating inflation” does not mean declining prices; it means a slower rate of price increase.   Stuff still costs more, it just costs more at a slower rate.  Consumable goods will cost more in 2022 than they do this year.  The 2022 loaf of bread likely to climb to $4.00; it will never return to the 2019 price of $2.50 because the dollar is worth less.

♦ Ask the White House: Why did Joe Biden increase food assistance benefits by 25% if inflation was transitory?

[The Consumer Price Index was released today.  The producer price index for Sept will be released tomorrow]

This massive inflation is a direct result of the multinational agenda of the Biden administration in combination with the spending spree.  Inflation is a feature not a flaw, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID. The first group to admit what was obvious were banks, specifically Bank of America, because the monetary policy is the primary cause.

You might remember, when President Trump initiated tariffs against China (steel, aluminum and more), Southeast Asia (product specific), Europe (steel, aluminum and direct products), Canada (steel, aluminum, lumber and dairy specifics), the financial pundits screamed at the top of their lungs that consumer prices were going to skyrocket. They didn’t. CTH knew they wouldn’t because essentially those trading partners responded in the exact same way the U.S. did decades ago when the import/export dynamic was reversed.

Trump’s massive, and in some instances targeted, import tariffs against China, SE Asia, Canada and the EU not only did not increase prices, the prices of the goods in the U.S. actually dropped. Trump’s policies led the largest deflation in consumer prices in decades. At the same time, Trump’s domestic economic policies drove employment and wages higher than any time in the past forty years.

With Donald Trump’s policies, we were in an era where job growth was strong, wages were rising and consumer prices were falling.  The net result was more disposable income for the middle class, more demand for stuff, and ultimately that’s why the U.S. economy was so strong.

Going Deep – To retain their position, China and the EU responded to U.S. tariffs by devaluing their currency as an offset to higher prices. It started with China, because their economy is so dependent on exports to the U.S.

China first started subsidizing the targeted sectors hit by tariffs. However, as the Chinese economy was under pressure, they stopped purchasing industrial products from the EU, that slowed the EU economy and made the impact of U.S. tariffs, later targeted in the EU direction, more impactful.

When China (total communist control over their banking system) devalued their currency to avoid Tariff price increase, it had an unusual effect. The cost of all Chinese imports dropped, not just on the tariff goods.

Imported stuff from China dropped in price at the same time the U.S. dollar was strong. This meant it took less dollars to import the same amount of Chinese goods; and those goods were at a lower price. As a result, we were importing deflation…. the exact opposite of what the financial pundits claimed would happen.

In response to a lessening of overall economic activity, the EU then followed the same approach as China. The EU was already facing pressure from the exit of the U.K. from the EU system; so, when the EU central banks started pumping money into their economy and offsetting with subsidies, they essentially devalued the euro. The outcome for U.S.-EU importers was the same as the outcome for U.S.-China importers. We began importing deflation from the EU side.

In the middle of this, there was a downside for U.S. exporters. With China and the EU devaluing their currency, the value of the dollar increased. This made purchases from the U.S. more expensive. U.S. companies who relied on exports (lots of agricultural industries and raw materials) took a hit from higher export prices. However, and this part is really interesting, it only made those companies more dependent on domestic sales for income. With less being exported, there was more product available in the U.S for domestic purchase…. this dynamic led to another predictable outcome, even lower prices for U.S. consumers.

From 2017 through early 2020, U.S. consumer prices were dropping. We were in a rare place where actual deflation was happening. Combine lower prices with higher wages, and you can easily see the strength within the U.S. economy.

For the rest of the world this seemed unfair, and indeed they cried foul – especially Canada.  However, this was America First in action. Middle-class Americans were benefiting from a Trump reversal of 40 years of economic policies like those that created the rust belt.

Industries were investing in the U.S., and that provided leverage for Trump’s trade policies to have stronger influence. If you wanted access to this expanding market, those foreign companies needed to put their investment money into the U.S. and create even more U.S. jobs. This was an expanding economic spiral where Trump was creating more and more economic pies. Every sector of the U.S. economy was benefiting more, but the blue-collar working class was gaining the most benefit of all.

♦ REVERSE THIS… and you now understand where we are with inflation.

The JoeBama economic policies are exactly the reverse. The monetary policy that pumps money into into the U.S. economy, via COVID bailouts and ever-increasing federal spending, drops the value of the dollar and makes the dependency state worse.

With the FED pumping money into the U.S. system, the dollar value plummets.  Now the value of the Chinese and EU currency increases. This means it costs more to import products, and that is the primary driver of price increases in consumer goods.

Simultaneously, a lower dollar value means cheaper exports for the massive multinational conglomerates who now control our farms and farming resources (Big AG and raw materials). China, SE Asia and even the EU purchase U.S. food and raw material at a lower price. That means less food and raw material in the U.S. which drives up prices for U.S. consumers.

It is a perfect storm.  Higher costs for imported goods (durable goods) and higher costs for domestic consumable goods (food). Combine this dynamic with massive increases in energy costs from ideological Green New Deal policy, and that’s fuel on a fire of inflation.

Annualized inflation is now around 8 percent, and it will likely keep increasing in the short term. This is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result, consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually, this means household purchasing of durable goods drop because people have less disposable income.

Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result, real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.

This inflationary period will not stall out until the U.S. economy can recover from the massive amount of federal spending.

If the spending continues, the Fed keeps printing money.  The dollar continues to be weakened.  As a result the inflationary period continues. It is a spiral that can only be stopped if the policies are reversed…. and the only way to stop these insane policies is to get rid of the Wall Street democrats and republicans who are constructing them.

Tucker Carlson hit this point very well last night: