Posted originally on CTH on August 25, 2025 | Sundance
CTH noted several months ago, end the Marshall Plan for Europe and things will change quickly.
Germany is in a tight economic place as a result of: (1) former leftist Chancellor Olaf Scholz alignment with climate change policy, radically changing the German energy base and driving up costs; (2) the financial support for Ukraine; (3) the financial burden of mass African/ME migration, and (4) the new Trump-era EU tariffs that effectively end the Marshall Plan.
Put all four elements together and the German economic contraction is only forecast to worsen. This is the reality that current German Chanceller Fredrich Merz is facing. Thus, as a non-pretending former businessman, Merz recently told his party and the German electorate that current financial conditions no longer support the expansive entitlement state.
Pensions, benefits and even healthcare are potentially going to be impacted. Germans are not happy.
GERMANY – The German welfare state is no longer financially sustainable, Friedrich Merz said on Saturday. The chancellor argued for a fundamental reassessment of the benefits system as spending continues to soar past last year’s record of €47bn (£40bn).
In a state-level party conference meeting on Saturday, Mr Merz said: “The welfare state as we have it today can no longer be financed with what we can economically afford.”
Once the export champion of Europe, Germany’s economy has slowed dramatically since 2017, with GDP growing by only 1.6 per cent since then versus 9.5 per cent for the rest of the eurozone.
Germany’s economy shrank by 0.2 per cent last year following a 0.3 per cent dip in 2023 – the first time since the early 2000s the economy has retreated two years in a row.
Industrial production fell under the Left-leaning “traffic light” coalition of Olaf Scholz and continues to slide under the new government, with GDP declining by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, spending on social welfare has exploded, and is set to increase further this year as Germany’s population ages and unemployment rises. Although the majority of benefit recipients are German, large numbers are non-German citizens.
[…] Germany has in place a so-called “debt brake”, which limits how much the government can borrow to fund its spending plans.
Mr Merz’s views on the welfare state are likely to provoke discontent among his Social Democratic Party (SDP) coalition partners, whom he relies on for a thin majority in the Bundestag.
[…] Lars Klingbeil, the SPD leader and vice-chancellor, hit back at Mr Merz’s announcement with calls for increased taxation on top earners. He called for a summit focused on helping industry leaders respond or adapt to US tariffs and said “no option is off the table” when it comes to plugging the 30-billion-euro gap in Germany’s budget. (more)
A note of caution. Historically speaking, when the German economy gets bad enough, Europe ends up in a war.
Posted originally on Aug 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The motives behind the open border policy are numerous, but one undeniable motive was encouraging an influx of potential voters who would vote for the party subsidizing their lives. Pew Research recently conducted a poll and looked at the illegal alien population between 2021 and 2023. Not so coincidentally, the Biden Administration resettled over one million migrants in swing states during the two years leading up to the US Presidential Election.
The number of illegal migrants residing in the US peaked in 2023 at 14 million, according to Pew Research Center estimates. Over 3.5 million migrants surged into the nation during the two years leading to the election. There has never been such a drastic influx of illegal migrants in the history of the United States. It took a deliberate and calculated effort from the Biden Administration to permit MILLIONS of people to enter at such a rapid pace without any checks or balances. Around 6 million or 43% of illegal migrants received legal protections from the past administration to prevent their deportation, up from only 2.7 million in 2021 when Biden took office.
Mexico accounted for only 30% of migrants living in the US in 2023. Other top nations included Guatemala (850,000), El Salvador (850,000), Honduras (775,000), Venezuela (650,000), and India (680,000).
Around one million migrants surged into swing states. Democrats held false hope that Florida was turning into a purple state. The illegal alien population grew by 700,000 in the two years before the election, but that did little to help the DNC. New Jersey, not even a border state, experienced a rise of 150,000 migrants, and New York saw a surge of 230,000. Georgia’s migrant population rose by 100,000, as did North Carolina’s. Texas took in 45,000 migrants, while Pennsylvania and Michigan each experienced an increase of 80,000 migrants. Arizona saw its illegal alien population rise by 50,000, Wisconsin by 30,000, and New Hampshire by 5,000.
One must understand the sheer number of people these states took in. New Hampshire, for example, has a population of only 1.4 million. These are merely the people who were accounted for as the government admitted they had no idea of the true figure. There was a coordinated effort to fly and bus migrants to key swing states, and the Democrats fought tooth and nail to repeal voter ID and increase mail-in voting availability. The outrage over foreign election interference was misplaced as our own politicians attempted to sway the election—and still lost.
Posted originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Census Bureau’s monthly Current Population Survey indicates that the number of migrants declined by 1.6 million since Trump took office, with the total foreign-born population falling by 2.2 million. The bureau estimates that the illegal migrant population in the US now stands at 14.2 million.
The true illegal population remaining in the US is unknown. FAIR estimated in March 2025 that the figure could stand at 18.6 million. The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) put the figure at 15.8 million, representing a 50% increase since 2021. The total foreign-born population reached 53.3 million in January 2025, according to most estimates, with illegal migrants composing around 29% of that figure.
Under Biden, new arrivals were averaging 120,000 per month, but over the last six months, America has seen the illegal population declining by 270,000 on a monthly basis. “The best evidence we have is that the illegal population is now falling at a rate that even exceeds the massive growth that we had in Biden’s four years,” CIS research director Steven A. Camarota said. Camarota indicated that if the current trend persists, the nation could see the total foreign-born population decline for the first time in nearly 100 years.
“It’s likely that this represents a savings in money for the taxpayer,” he said. “It will take pressure off schools and hospitals and other services. It’s likely it will potentially create job opportunities for Americans.”
Less than a year ago, cities were scrambling for housing solutions for migrants. State and city budgets had toppled, and the number of arrivals steadily soared to the point where it was absolutely fiscally impossible for any local, state, or even the federal government to adequately maintain the illegal population.
The open border policy was absolutely treasonous. This authorized invasion cannot be solved overnight. Some estimates believe it could take over a decade to deport everyone who entered under Biden-Kamala-Schwab, with some estimates believing it will take 30 years. Again, no one knows exactly who or how many people entered the borders, and this effort could halt under a new administration.
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