Hong Kong’s intervened to support the Hong Kong dollar for the first time since August 2018 after the exchange rate fell to the lower end of its trading band against the greenback. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$1.507 billion ($192 million) of their own currency during London and New York trading hours on Saturday.

The Hong Kong dollar peg to the US dollar has come under a lot of pressure. The problem they face is simply that such a peg also imports the inflation or deflation of the currency to which a peg is created. As the Greenback rises in the political-economic sea of international finance, it will become impossible to hold the peg.

In 1863 the Hong Kong Government declared the silver dollar – then a kind of international currency issued by many nations – to be the legal tender for Hong Kong, and in 1866 began issuing a Hong Kong version of the silver dollar. The silver standard became the basis of Hong Kong’s monetary system until 1935, when, during a world silver crisis, the Government announced that the Hong Kong dollar would be taken off the silver standard and linked to the pound sterling at the rate of HK$16 to the pound.

In 1972, the Hong Kong dollar was pegged to the U.S.dollar at a rate of HK$5.65 = US$1. … Between 1974 and 1983, the Hong Kong dollar floated. On 17 October 1983, the currency was pegged at a rate of HK$7.8 = US$1, through the currency board system.

The problem Hong Kong will face is as the financial crisis in Europe erupts, this will push the Greenback higher. If Hong Kong keeps desperately trying to hold the peg, they will import DEFLATIONand turn their economy down very hard all because of international events. The models we showed at the Singapore Conference targeted 2019 for an important turning point.

We are progressing in uploading all the memory modules. Soon, we will have all modules plugged in. I had an interesting meeting with one institution. One CFO still questioned if there was any human involvement in the reports. He said that the writing was too good for just a machine and assumed someone had to be editing them. I laughed, and explained with covering over 1,000 instruments currently and about 9,000 more to go, I asked how many people would it take to do that? There cannot be any human involvement for the sheer size of the project would consume probably every person who has ever lived that was interested in analysis.

For example, Socrates will employ technical analysis itself and write its conclusions. Once again, there is no human behind this for it would be impossible to put out over 3,000 individual reports every day using humans. This is what it wrote for the Dow Jones Industrial Index on the daily level.

After the historical high was established during 2018, a major low was created on 12/26/2018 at 2171253 which was 51 days from that major high.

Meanwhile, the Downtrend Line from that major high of 2018 to the subsequent reaction high of 2627782 formed 26 days thereafter resides at 2404847. This had provided the original technical resistance which has been exceeded and can potentially become support going forward. The post high low was established at 2171253. We have not elected the two short-term Bullish Reversals from that important post high low on the daily level but we have elected both the long-term Bullish Reversals.

The more recent Downtrend Line constructed from the last high of 2624142 to the subsequent reaction high of 2615598 stands at 2608763 while drawing a channel provides us with support at 2557422. The market has already penetrated intraday this support provided by the bottom of the channel. However, the market has bounced back and closed above it warning that it is holding right now.

It is my hope that Socrates will provide the best management tool for society moving into the future. Kind of like the Biblical story of Joeseph and the Pharoh when he forecast 7 years of plenty followed by 7 years of drought. We cannot alter the cycles in motion and we should not try as Marx and Keynes did. We should understand the trends and prepare thereby living with them in harmony. The weather is turning toward global cooling. This is when disease increases (plagues) set in motion by malnutrition. If we understand the trend, we simply prepare for it instead of blaming everyone else but reality.

The BP Oil Spill was a disaster. However, any company that could show it had a loss in 2008 got in line with their hand out and were paid. They did not have to show any connection to the oil spill that caused their loss. The 2007-2009 economic decline produced losses by itself. There is always someone who has to be blamed.

The Red Tide of 2018 actually disrupted more businesses than the BP Oil Spill. But the Red Tide could not be blamed on a single company with deep pockets. You could not sue God or nature. A simple model on Red Tide demonstrated it was not farmers and chemicals but a 13-year cycle. On top of that, such events extended back to 1648 and predate chemicals or the Industrial Revolution.

While there are people in New York who hate our models because when they have lost big time in their attempts to manipulate markets like 2007-2009, they turn to blame our model claiming we are always too influential. They shift the blame rather than admit that their own corruption has led so many times to blow up the world economy. If we really understood the world and how everything is connected, we could manage the economy far better and even eliminate war which seems to rise as a means to shift blame to someone else when it is often our own governments that skew everything up.

This is what I hope to leave behind.

The Socrates’ Array on Vancouver real estate published back in 2015 picked the high in 2017 and the crash into 2019. The high in the top line was forecasting 2017 rather nicely. Note that things begin to change in 2020-2021. Not that prices in real terms rise, but this is lining up with the ECM turn in January 2020 and the start of a new business cycle. This next one will be more dominated by the decline in confidence in government and the rise of political tension that will be worldwide from separatist movements to the fracture of political parties.

No matter where we look, markets are beginning to reflect a new business cycle is approaching. While this will be one of the focuses at the upcoming Rome WEC May 3rd/4th, the shift in global trends is really amazing. We will also be providing a training session on Channel Moves, which in themselves, is rather rare.