Tag Archives: Inflation

Jul 15 2022

Two More Gone, The Prime Minister of Estonia and the Prime Minister of Italy Tender Their Resignations


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 14, 2022 | sundance 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned.  Days later, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated. A few days passed and both the President and Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, resigned and fled the country.  Today, with their ruling governments in a state of turmoil, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi have both tendered their resignations.

The collapse of each of these national leaders is not necessarily connected; however, the global political system is reverberating with tremors directly connected to the post-pandemic economic turmoil.  It would be naïve not to see these governing issues as consequences.  The legitimacy of the governing class is slipping; perhaps it would be fair to say, some have ‘lost’ their legitimacy altogether.

Estonia is part of the EU and a member of NATO:

HELSINKI — Estonia’s president on Thursday asked Prime Minister Kaja Kallas to form a new government after she tendered the resignation of her one-party minority Cabinet, ending a more than month-long political stalemate in the Baltic nation.

President Alar Karis said in a tweet after meeting with Kallas that “I signed the resignation request of Prime Minister @kajakallas but also asked her to form a new government which could start working quickly and deal with all important issues of Estonian life.”

Estonia’s government crisis culminated in early June as Kallas, leader of the ruling center-right Reform Party, kicked out the left-leaning Center Party from the two-party coalition. The parties had substantial differences over spending and welfare policies amid increasing Estonian household costs because of high inflation. (more)

Italy is a member of the G7, a part of the EU and a member of NATO:

ROME — Italian Premier Mario Draghi offered to step down Thursday after a populist coalition partner refused to vote for a key bill in Parliament, but the nation’s president quickly rebuffed him, leaving one of Western Europe’s main leaders at the helm for now.

The rejection of the tendered resignation left in limbo the future of Draghi’s 17-month-old government, officially known as a national unity coalition, but with its survival sorely tested by increasingly sharp divergences within the coalition.

Draghi’s broad coalition government — which includes parties from the right, the left, the center and the populist 5-Star Movement — was designed to help Italy recover from the coronavirus pandemic. (read more)

The parliamentary coalitions are fracturing.  New alliances are being formed.  One recent example that stunned everyone in the EU was the far-right and far-left in the French parliament joining forces to defeat the coalition government of Emmanuel Macron as he tried, and failed, to extend emergency COVID rules.

FRANCE – It was the first bill in the new legislature, and the Assemblée Nationale has already embarrassed the government. On Tuesday night, the Assemblée rejected one of the key articles in the bill on Covid-19 aimed at extending certain measures for the fight against the pandemic.

During the debate, the coalition backing President Emmanuel Macron was outvoted several times by parts of the left-wing Nouvelle Union Populaire, Ecologique et Sociale (NUPES), the right-wing Les Républicains (LR) and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). But the government, represented by Health Minister François Braun, adopted what was left of the bill at 1:45 am, which the help LR votes and Socialist abstentions. (more)

The COVID rules in France are set to expire on July 31st. The first parliamentary goal for President Macron was to extend the COVID emergency and keep his powers.  However, the legislative effort was rejected by 219 votes to 195, destroying the goals of Macron.  Both populist groups joined forces to defeat the Macron coalition.

Yes, amid all of the economic damage created by western leaders and their Build Back Better efforts, the geopolitical world is having spasms as the rulers are being rejected by the ruled.

In the parliamentary systems, the voices of the angry people are rising up. Those shouts are entering the halls of government through the direct representatives closest to the people.  The ruling coalitions are no longer able to hold together as the people demand change.   That is the connective tissue behind these resignations and departures.

Western government leaders like Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson and Jacinda Ardern have the audacity to stand atop a two-year mountain of unilateral fiats, rules, regulations and mandates and then decry “autocracy” and threats to the “global order.”    All of them have destroyed their own legitimacy by pretending to represent western democracy while carrying out two years of totalitarian power.

As the AP tried to spin it:

[…] “A poll conducted last year by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that just 16% of Americans say democracy is working well or extremely well. Another 38% said it’s working only somewhat well.

Other surveys reveal how many people in the United States now doubt the media, politicians, science and even each other.

The distrust has gone so deep that even groups that seem ideologically aligned are questioning each others’ motives and intentions. (more)

We the citizens of the ‘western democracies’ are in an abusive relationship with our own governments’.  The yellow vests in France, the MAGA movement in the U.S., the Australian labor unions, the Canadian Truckers and now the Dutch farmers are the precursor tremors for seismic political shifts.

They all followed the same instructions from the World Economic Forum, and western leaders have shown absolutely no desire to pull back and listen to the people.  Quite the opposite is happening.

Collectively those same leaders are charging head strong into their Build Back Better agenda, regardless of what that does to the global economy.  The collective sanctions placed against Russia are being felt as increased inflation by the citizens of Europe and the United States.  Their “climate change’ agenda and energy policies are creating economic turmoil and now food insecurity

Inflation pressure has built up like a pressure cooker.   People are growing increasingly desperate, and now the absence of food stability will change things.

The looming shortage of food could be the pressure point that fractures the tectonic political plates.

Jul 15 2022

The Biden Economy is So Bad, Even His Gatekeepers Now Admit Biden Has Broken All Records for Bad Economic Outlooks


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 14, 2022 | sundance

CNBC is the Biden defense team for media broadcasts of anything related to the economy.  As a result, you know things are bad when CNBC broadcasts that Joe Biden’s economy has the highest level of dissatisfaction in the history of their surveys.

Steve Liesman was given the task again to share the horrible results. WATCH:

Jul 15 2022

Producer Price Index Hits Peak 11.3 Percent Inflation Driven by Biden Energy Policy – Service Prices Now Indicate Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 14, 2022 | sundance

The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released June price data [Available Here] showing another 11.3% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.

Overall, the wholesale inflation rate is being driven by energy prices.  The June calculation shows exactly that problem with energy prices embedded in goods driving 10% of the price increase.  However, there is some good news in the short-term for July and August, as the intermediate and raw material costs are leveling off temporarily.  Unfortunately, that raw material price plateau is almost certainly the result of a drop in demand.

CTH has modified Table-A and Table-B to take out the noise.

The June inflation rate for final demand goods (2.4%) is driven mostly by higher energy prices (10%).  Energy costs are passed along through every stage of the supply chain contributing to an overall wholesale price increase of 2.4% in June, 11.3% year-over-year.

Notice the slight drop in final demand services; that is important.  What we are seeing is a contraction in the service economy overall, as the service sector -which includes restaurants- cannot pass along the scale of energy price increase to customers. People are changing their spending habits – service demand overall is dropping.

Additionally, the producer price index gathers data from inside the supply chain, backwards from the final stage (wholesale) into the intermediate stage (various processing) and also raw material prices.   Here is where things are getting interesting, and now I can make some direct forward predictions.

I modified Table-B so you can see how the supply chain for goods is responding to both: (A) energy prices, and (B) consumer spending.  You can click on the graphic to expand the image and spend some time on it if needed.

You can see from the left side of modified Table-B that both levels of intermediate goods were heavily impacted by energy prices.  “Intermediate” processed goods rising 2.3% in June, 22.2% year-over-year.  Intermediate unprocessed goods (raw materials) rose 9.5% in June, 58.0% year-over-year.

However, if you subtract the massive June energy costs, you will note the intermediate price of nonfood processed goods significantly dropped to 0.2% in June.  And if you subtract the energy costs, you will notice the raw material prices for nonfood durable goods actually declined 2.2% in June.

Here’s what is going on…

The inflationary impact of Joe Biden’s Green New Deal energy program is running into the inability of consumers to pay for the price increases it creates.  That is what is causing the demand side drops in retail economic activity on Main Street.  We all know this.

As a result of these high prices, there is less internal demand within the supply chain for both goods and services.  Inventories are climbing and the demand for raw materials to produce durable goods is now declining.  Subtract the energy costs and nonfood prices are dropping. The decline is a raw material demand outcome.

June energy prices were extremely high.  That’s driving the current PPI price outcome at all stages; but behind that issue is low manufacturing activity.

Remember, two months ago we said food prices would plateau in July and August.  This PPI report shows the entry into that plateau.  However, there is a problem on the horizon that is not measured in this data.

The high energy costs to farmers (fertilizer, diesel, oil, energy, etc.), a cost already seeded (forgive the pun) is right now in the fields…. waiting…. sitting somewhat dormant and ignored by the statisticians… but that higher origination price is growing and lurking….

When the farming harvests take place, those higher field costs will enter the supply chain again and end up finding their way, via wholesalers and supermarkets, to your fork.  Big Ag is going to maximize this opportunity.

Farmers will not be the ones benefitting.

♦ For the next two months the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will show inflation stability and possibly even price declines.

Those reports will come out in August (for July) and September (for August) and will give the impression that inflation has moderated, and the Fed has been successful.  However, in/around Sept and October the harvest cost will hit the stores.  At that point, energy prices -already high- will take a backseat to the rate of inflation driven by massive increases in food prices.

Oct, Nov and December, all the way through the winter, will be painful at the grocery stores and supermarkets.   Also, restaurants this fall and winter, are going to get hit hard as their suppliers start to deliver food at much higher prices.  Those people in the food service industry need to prepare now for what is looming.

Everything I just described above is happening at the same time as consumer demand for durable goods and non-essential services is dropping.  The current economic activity on Main Street is tepid at best.  Housing values have peaked along with rents.

Every element of the U.S. economy is now entering a phase where success or failure in a Main Street business is directly connected to the customer being able to afford the product or service.

Two-thirds of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is driven by consumer spending.  Our borders are open, our wages are flat, our prices are high, our discretionary spending is contracting.  Our manufacturing and service driven economy will contract, and we are two months away from food stability, prices, affordability and potentially scarcity, being the primary focus of everyone.

FUBAR

Prepare your affairs accordingly.

Jul 14 2022

70% of 10-Year-Olds Cannot Read After Lockdowns


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Children suffered the worst long-term consequences of the lockdowns. “The State of Global Learning Poverty: 2022 Update,” found that an alarming 70% of middle and lower-class 10-year-olds across the globe cannot read. There is no greater freedom than knowledge, and reading comprehension is essential to our modern-day existence. “Only the richer segments of the population—those with broadband connectivity, access to devices for the use of each family member, a place to study, availability of books and learning material, and a conducive home environment, among other conditions—were able to maintain a reasonable level of education engagement,” the study cited. We are now in the midst of an education crisis where children have fallen perhaps too far behind to catch up with their peers.

Latin America, the Caribbean, and South Asia saw the most notable declines in learning as schools there completely closed and many did not have access to online education. Sadly, many of the organizations that pushed for the lockdowns and school closures, such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, would like to step in to help re-educate these children. They will try to reshape an entire generation of vulnerable children as they see fit. “Fighting this learning crisis is the challenge of our times if we do not want to lose this generation of children and youth,” the report said.

“COVID-19 has devastated learning around the world, dramatically increasing the number of children living in Learning Poverty,” said Jaime Saavedra, Global Director for Education at the World Bank. “With 7 in 10 of today’s 10-year-olds in low- and middle-income countries now unable to read a simple text, political leaders and society must swiftly move to recover this generation’s future by ensuring learning recovery strategies and investments.” They are calling this phenomenon “learning poverty,” but the issue was not based on class. This drastic decline in reading comprehension is a direct result of lockdowns and school closures.

The report tries to claim that “learning poverty” was prevalent before the lockdown, but there is no denying that allowing children to miss 273 days of school in certain areas of the world caused this problem. The report says learning poverty violates children’s right to education, but the lockdowns and tyrannical crackdown on a largely unlethal virus harmed ALL children across the globe.

So now, children risk losing $21 trillion in lifetime earnings, equivalent to 17% of global GDP. Our model has been targeting 2030 for many years as a major turning point. Unsurprisingly, this report claims that if we follow the guidance of the same agencies who forced school closures, we can attain a newly indoctrinated, I mean educated, population by 2030.

Jul 14 2022

Biden on Crack and Mass Incarceration


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

As if we needed more proof that the elites are beyond the law — disgraceful. Listen to the words coming out of Joe Biden’s mouth juxtaposed to a video of his son weighing crack cocaine in a filthy hotel. The sweet “Uncle Joe” image that Obama created for this man is a lie. As senator of Delaware, Joe Biden implemented strict laws to punish drug addicts, specifically those addicted to crack cocaine. He did this to target African American communities where crack was more prevalent due to a three-letter agencies’ involvement (a post for another time, perhaps).

Biden championed the 100-to-1 crack/powder disparity where those in possession of crack would receive 100 times the penalties for carrying the same amount of powder cocaine. He is the man responsible for the US creating the role of “drug czar,” as he championed being tough on crime throughout his career until he reached the White House.

Biden opened the doorway for civil asset forfeiture in the Comprehensive Crime Control Act of 1984, which gave the government permission to seize the assets of anyone suspected of drug trafficking. Similar to conspiracy, no actual crime needed to be committed.

A report from the American Civil Liberties Union, “Cracks in the System,” found that the 100-to-1 rule disproportionally targeted African Americans and contributed to mass incarceration:

“In 1986, before the enactment of federal mandatory minimum sentencing for crack cocaine offenses, the average federal drug sentence for African Americans was 11% higher than for whites. Four years later, the average federal drug sentence for African Americans was 49% higher.”

Those with minor possession of crack cocaine, much smaller than anything his son has purchased, faced numerous years behind bars without a fair trial and were treated as criminals rather than addicts with a physical and mental health problem. The media wants us to sympathize with Hunter Biden for his rough past, but no one sympathized with the countless people locked away under “Pedo Pete’s” laws. Biden was also responsible for helping Bill Clinton pass the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, which encouraged the death penalty for suspected traffickers and banned certain people from legally possessing weapons. The law most famously included the “three-strike” rule that locked people away for life after three offenses. Bill Clinton later apologized for that ruling, but Joe Biden did not.

What changed Biden’s mind? He has recently come out to decry the harsh rules he implemented and is notoriously light on crime. Well, his daughter Ashley was arrested for marijuana possession in 1998 in Louisiana. Ashley was never convicted of a crime, and her father went on to claim in an ABC interview as far as 2010 that marijuana was a gateway drug. “I still believe it’s a gateway drug. I’ve spent a lot of my life as chairman of the Judiciary Committee dealing with this. I think it would be a mistake to legalize,” then Vice President Joe Biden said.  Let us not forget that he ran campaign ads before the US 2020 Presidential Election to repeal any marijuana-related restrictions that “unfairly targeted minorities.”

Biden is one of the most hypocritical politicians in modern history. He went from championing destroying already ruined lives with unforgiving laws to spending US taxpayers’ dollars on providing addicts with free drug paraphernalia. He defunded police agencies at a time when the opiate epidemic was killing more young lives than ever before. Under the very laws he created, he technically helped his son purchase crack and, therefore, should be investigated, albeit this only scratches the surface of the crimes he has committed through his son.

Hunter Biden and the entire Biden crime family are blatantly above the law. Crack smoking is one of the least offensive activities exposed in Hunter’s laptop from hell. He will never be investigated, and Biden will never feel sorry for the countless lives he has ruined.

Jul 14 2022

NYT Democrat Voter Poll Shows Base Do Not Want Biden Reelected, Biden Leaves Town and California Governor Gavin Newsom Shows up at the White House


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 13, 2022 | Sundance 

Democrats are historically known for the optics of their politics.  With that in mind, is it coincidental that California Governor Gavin Newsom, one of the leading people that leftists want to see run in 2024, shows up to tour the White House the day after Joe Biden leaves town?

Considering the recent article from the New York Times outlining how most democrats do not want to see Joe Biden run for reelection, the timing seems rather conspicuous. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:

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Gavin Newsom is turning California into Somalia, so it would make sense for him to be the next one in line to continue the chaos.

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(Discussion Poll pdf Here)

Jul 14 2022

The Pretending Continues, Furrowed Brow Edition


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 13, 2022 | Sundance

The professionally furrowed brows are forced to admit high prices remain problematic for the proles while retaining the sympathetic pretense.  WATCH:

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Comrade rebels, when things get spicy, I’ve got dibbs on his swimming pool.

Jul 13 2022

World Bank: The Poor Will Suffer From Carbon Taxes


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The World Economic Forum is praising Denmark for implementing the world’s strictest carbon tax laws. Companies will soon be forced to pay $159 for every tonne of CO2 emitted, marking an additional $53 per tonne. The government claims this will cut CO2 levels by 3.7 million tonnes in just one year.

“This incentivizes companies to clean up for themselves,” the WEF reported. In the midst of an extreme energy crisis, punishing energy suppliers will undoubtedly backfire. These costs will be passed along to the already struggling consumer. Even the World Bank admitted that the poor will suffer from the carbon tax.

The World Bank stated on its blog:

“There are good reasons why governments may not want to use carbon taxes, and one of them relates to their welfare impacts. For example, a carbon tax on fossil fuels is often regressive in its impact- hurting poorer people relatively more than richer ones. Even when it might be progressive, poorer people still suffer a welfare loss when prices rise, making their consumption basket more expensive.”

Furthermore, they admitted that the carbon tax “aims to restructure economies by raising the cost of a critical resource – the juice that makes it run.” Precisely. We NEED fossil fuels right now, there is no other viable alternative available to provide energy to the world. Since nations have succumbed to the climate change agenda, they have lost their energy-independent status. Europe shot itself in the foot by eliminating any diplomatic relations with their number one supplier of gas for a country that they did not acknowledge prior to February 2022.

Other nations with the ability will drill and sell oil to those under WEF leadership at a premium. India is already buying Russian oil at a discount, refining it, and selling it to the US for a premium. This is more than just bad business as it is a clear attempt to cut off a “critical resource” to “restructure economies” as seen fit by the WEF.

Jul 13 2022

400,000 Chinese Lose Their Life Savings Instantly


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

https://rumble.com/embed/v1964tn/?pub=4#?secret=LxEgfpWi3W

Officers in plain clothes disrupted a peaceful protest outside the capital of Henan, as seen in the video above. Depositors were protesting to demand that their savings be returned as thousands have been unable to access their money for over a month. Banks in Henan first froze client assets, and then the Chinese government changed the victims’ COVID QR passes to red to deny them the freedom of movement. The most recent protest was among the largest seen in China since the pandemic began.

Over $6 billion (39 billion yuan) is missing. A reported 400,000 people have been affected. Imagine going to the bank only to realize that your entire life’s savings were gone instantly? You worked hard, saved, and did everything right for years or decades, only to have it all abruptly taken away. Even the most ruthless government is in trouble when the people have nothing left to lose. Imagine if the Chinese were permitted to own guns? There would be uncontrolled civil unrest.

So where is the money? Chances are that the banks do not have the liquidity to pay out all of the depositors. Instead of cracking down on the banks, the government is coming after innocent people. Officers in plain clothes attacked protestors, including the elderly and women, and civilians were left wondering why their own people would attack them when they were clearly the victims. Governments are completely ruthless and DO NOT CARE ABOUT THE PEOPLE.

Jul 13 2022

Tucker Carlson Outlines How Joe Biden is Implementing the Green New Deal Energy Program and Killing the U.S. Economy, and Standard of Living, in The Process


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 13, 2022 | Sundance

During an extensive opening monologue on Tuesday evening, Fox News host Tucker Carlson walked through the origin of the modern American push for a transformation in the U.S. energy system; as outlined in the Green New Deal advocacy of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and how Joe Biden is implementing the agenda by executive fiat.

The Green New Deal is domestically to the U.S. as the Build Back Better agenda is to the rest of the western nations who follow the instructions from the World Economic Forum. Collectively the economies of western government are starting to collapse as the underlying energy policies (climate change) are being implemented.

Carlson walks through several examples of countries who have tried and failed to switch from oil, gas and coal to the “green renewable” energy programs. Everything from farming to home heating is now under attack by the governmental energy policies of western nations.  Civil society is starting to collapse in according to the schedule of the nations who have tried to transition.  Perhaps the worst part about it, is that western politicians -like Joe Biden- do not care how much damage is done, they are doing it anyway. WATCH:

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Something has to change, and soon.  As a nation we are going to self-destruct if we do not stop this mad effort to use windmills and solar energy as alternative power sources to oil, coal and natural gas.  Already there are signs that states like Texas are bordering on an energy crisis because there is not enough wind to power their windmills.

From the complete restructuring of farming under the guise of climate change (the intentional shift to eating bugs and lab-grown meat), to the complete collapse of stable energy as a result of chasing climate change goals, we are fast approaching the point of no easy return.

We are not going to like the civil unrest and national instability that comes along with public desperation.