Hoards Are Vital to our Understanding of History


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies Re-Posted Jan 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Why do you buy hoards? It is interesting. Just curious.

JY

ANSWER: The coinage is the ONLY way to truly confirm the history. Much of the most important periods like the 3rd century AD, the fall of the Republic, or the Revolution during the Debt Crisis of the 1st century BC known as the Social War, can only be properly understood through the coinage lacking really detailed accounts of financially what was taking place. By recreating the monetary system using coinage, I was able to answer the question – How did Rome Fall? Gradually? Or Catastrophically? By assembling all the coinage, and testing it out, I could establish what nobody else could due using documents or archaeological digs. Rome collapsed in just 8.6 years.

That was then observed in testing and using the same methods around the world. The collapse of the English coinage that inspired Gresham’s Law, bad money drives out good, also took just 8 years.

The Great Monetary Crisis of 1092 saw the gold content collapse also in just 8 years. The same pattern has unfolded time and time again. History repeats NOT because of wars or abstract theories. It repeats simply because human nature never changes – on technology.

The computer was about to forecast the fall of Communism in 1989.95 and it spread and took down the Berlin wall a few months after Tiananmen Square. People attributed that to modern communication. That was nonsense, The Roman Republic fell in 509 BC, and in the same few months in Athens, they too overthrew their tyrants, and Democracy was born.

The question is NOT how fast the information spreads. It could have traveled from Rome to Athens in a few days. The real question is how long does it take to filter through society to create political change?

Therefore, assembling the number of coins by examining hoards and the number of different dies multiplied by 15,000 will give us a good idea of the money supply at that time as illustrated above. Granted, this research project cost tens of millions of dollars to produce. Nonetheless, it has yielded a wealth of information that enabled us to see specifically what took place economically. Human nature has not changed. When Rome burned, Nero did visit the victims. Tiberius issued coins for the aid of Asia when a major earthquake devasted the region we call Turkey today.

I am finishing a book on the famous Battle of Actium where Mark Antony lost to Octavian giving birth to Imperial Rome. The number of dies and the amount of coins issued by Antony demonstrates that the entire wealth of Egypt was at his disposal and it was really an Egyptian proxy war against Rome. The number of silver denarii struck had to be at least 25 million. The sheer massive amount of the increase in the money supply thanks to Egypt was huge. Antony’s coins remained in circulation for decades, although very work. They were the most common coin found in hoards at Pompeii in 79AD about 100 years later. Hoards enable us to see the cost of that war and how it changed Egypt and Rome.

Where Rome began with bronze as its monetary unit and one pound was known as a Roman As, we can see that the price of the Punic Wars as what was one pound of bronze consistently declined. Here we found it was six waves of 51.6 years which are in themselves six waves of 8.6 years,  that produced the major wave of 309.6 years. So if we look from the beginning of the Roman As being 341 grams in 280 BC, by the time we get to Nero in 54AD, the Roman As was about only 10 grams.

Even looking at the reforms of Diocletian in 295AD, his introduction of the follis declines remarkably also following the six waves of 8.6 years. I have looked at the monetary systems of Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas. they have conformed to the Economic Confidence Model confirming that this is a cycle that clearly incorporates everything from war to climate change.

Even though Emperor Titus’ (79-81AD) reign was marked by a relative absence of military and political conflicts after his father, Vespasian (69-79AD) had defeated Judaea was defeated, there were several disasters during his brief leadership. On October 24 in 79 AD, Mount Vesuvius erupted and almost destroyed the cities and resort communities around Naples. The cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum were buried under stones and lava in 79AD shortly after Titus (79-81AD) came to power. Titus made all efforts to help the victims of the volcano and donated large amounts of money from the imperial treasury. The emperor visited Pompeii right after the tragedy happened.

A single silver denarius was discovered in 1974 among the 180 silver coins buried in Pompeii. When it was cataloged, it overturned history. Titus’ father died on June 24th, 79 AD. Therefore, any coin of Titus as emperor would have to have the very first recording of his power “IMP VIIII” or 8th Imperator, which was a title that meant ‘leader of the army’ to the Romans. The coin discovered in Pompeii had the legend “IMP XV,” which was granted to Titus for the war in Britannia. Titus sent Gnaeus Julius Agricola who pushed further into Caledonia and managed to establish several forts there as recorded by Tacitus (Agricola 22). Therefore, Titus received the title of Imperator for the fifteenth time for this event, according to Cassius Dio (Roman History LXVI.20). This took place we know in September 79 AD about 3 months after becoming emperor following his father’s death. Obviously, if any coin was discovered in the ruins of Pompeii with “IMP XV” in its legend, then this provides absolute proof that the date for Vesuvius of August 24th, 79 AD cannot be correct.

Archeologists in Pompeii have discovered a remarkable inscription written in charcoal which has survived the catastrophe confirming that the eruption of Mt Vesuvius indeed took place in October 79AD as confirmed by the coin discovered and ignored by historians.  The charcoal writing, discovered on the wall of a villa during a new phase of excavations, adds weight to a theory that the volcano destroyed the town in October 79AD rather than August of that year in line with Cassio Dio and the denarius of Titus. The date of August 24th, 79 AD, came from a letter addressed by Pliny the Younger to the Roman historian Tacitus, originally written some 25 years after the event.

Titus devoted much of his silver coinage of Atonement to the gods for the disaster of Pompeii. There were four main Atonement issues commemorating the services of prayer and propitiation through which the emperor attempted to address the public alarm over the disaster. People often attributed such events to the gods being angry. The coinage showed emblems seeking the approval of Jupiter, Neptune, Apollo, and the deceased former Emperors to watch over the Roman people.

News actually spread rapidly around the Roman Empire. There were formal boards where notices would be posted in which important news and major events would be informed to the people much like such a board in a big company with notices to the employees. These boards were called the Acta Diurna and they were designed to inform the Roman people thereby avoiding fake news. We could call them ancient billboards in modern terms and even government officials would walk up and pin a written notice and the crowds would rush to see what is news. Thus, everyone knew of Pompeii in a matter of days. It did not take long for information to circulate.

Because the coin dies back then were hand carved, we are able to identify the number of dies in use during a given year because each is unique. Just look at these portraits on the famous Tribute Penny of Tiberius (14-37AD). It all depended upon the artistic ability of the engraver.

The coin itself has taken its name because Jesus, referring to a denarius, which the English translated to “penny” because that was their silver coin, asked: “Whose is this image and superscription?” When answered that the likeness was Caesar, He replied; ”Render therefore unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s and unto God the things that are God’s” (Matthew 22:20-21). Thus, the coin has been called the tribute penny meaning that was how you paid your taxes.

Hoards have enabled me to (1) see what was in circulation at that point in time for the hoard can be dated to around the most recent coin in the hoard. (2) I also have a number of ancient Roman dies like this one of Tiberius. Studies creating modern dies to test how many coins could be struck from such a die before it cracked provides a picture of about 15,000 coins.

By completing die studies quantifying how many were in use, it then becomes possible to estimate the money supply. Here we can see that during the Social War of 90-87BC, there is a drastic increase in the quantity of coinage issued obviously to pay for soldiers. However, conducting metal testing on the coinage of this period, we find that Rome also debased the coinage slightly adding up to 10% copper to the silver. Therefore, studying hoards allows one to actually ascertain the extreme of monetary affairs.

The Social War of the First Century BC was a failed Revolution against the corrupt Republic. The rebellion was waged by ancient Rome’s Italian allies (socii) who were denied equal rights with the Romans, despite the fact that they also fought alongside Romans in battle. They were seeking to separate and thus they fought for independence. Here are the coins of the rebels. They are very rare. You can see the theme celebrating the female head of Italia.

The allies in central and southern Italy had fought side by side with Rome in several wars and had grown restive under Roman autocratic rule, wanting instead Roman citizenship and the privileges it conferred. In 91 BC, the Roman tribune Marcus Livius Drusus proposed granting them Roman citizenship. The arrogance of the Senators erupted into a heated opposition. They went as far as to even Drusus for daring to propose such a decree. That resulted in the revolution.

When I dug deeper, the coinage with the debasement also reveals that there was a financial crisis. In all honesty, it was the Debt Crisis that ended the Roman Republic. There was a Sovereign Debt Crisis during the Roman Republic period that resulted in a dictatorship and a debt default. The Roman Debt Crisis of the 1st century BC has left behind a vivid account of what took place. The volume of gold and silver in Italy had increased dramatically during the late 2nd century BC following the Punic Wars. We have the first real gold coins issued by the Roman Republic at that time.

However, this concentration of wealth, which was akin to the United States after World War I and II, was absorbed by commercial expansion and investment in Gaul and Asia. A period of excessive concentration of money and large profits came to an end with the rise of the Social War of 91-88BC which was a war waged between the Roman Republic and several of the other cities in Italy (no taxation without representation), which prior to the war had been Roman allies for centuries. The war was begun by the Picentes because the Romans did not want to afford them Roman citizenship, thus leaving the Italian groups with fewer rights. The war resulted in a Roman victory and genocide against the Samnites. However, Rome granted Roman citizenship to almost all of its Italian allies, including the Samnites, to avoid another war. Therefore, we find that the debt crisis was correlated with a separatist movement – which we are beginning to see worldwide starting in Europe, but will eventually become a contagion in the United States as the conflict between left and right erupts after the November elections.

The Social War led to the complete state bankruptcy of the Roman State. We can see the dramatic rise in the money supply created during this time of war. This turmoil was then followed by the dictatorship of Sulla who then imposed an attempt to control the debt crisis capping interest rates at 12%. The previous legal rate was capped at 8.5%, but obviously, the market had exceeded that limit and Sulla had to confront that reality in 88BC. The debt crisis continued and then in 86 BC, the government was compelled into default. This is when the Valerian Law came into play. The State debts were defaulted on and thus reduced to 25%.

NATO the Greatest Threat to Civilization


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Marty,

I wonder if the downside of the US occupation of Europe since WW2 and US subsidization of military aid has produced a culture of pacifism. Germany’s reluctance to supply tanks to Ukraine suggests other motives.

The media focuses more on Russia and internal dissent against Putin. One reads about defections and men trying to escape the draft. The real symptom is the fraying of Nato and the US mission in Europe.

I seriously doubt Europeans want war. These military alliances die over time. Unless there is a perceived military threat, Nato appears to be a relic like the Maginot Line fortifications in France decades ago.

To my memory, no military alliance has ever lasted long. They usually die off from wars waged or the passing of time. NAto now is on the clock. I think it will die this decade.

MS

REPLY: NATO is the problem. Russia, and its people, have no desire to invade Europe. The day of communism and its spread as a religious cult is over, except in the West where Socialism is the means of the power of the state and to keep the people dependent upon that power the very exact way that communism worked. Despite the fact that communism collapsed it was so inefficient and deprived the people of even freedom to imagine and curiosity that is the seed of advancing society. Without that freedom to imagine and the curiosity to discover new things, society withers and dies.

The Neocons see only hatred and war. John McCain openly met with the Neonatzis of Ukraine and promised them the funding to destroy Russia. Nobody thinks about the people. It is always this ideological endeavor to destroy an opponent as if this were a Roman Gladiator Contest to the death. They expect the people to utter the same words – “We who are about to die, salute you.

NATO is a relic. It has NO PURPOSE unless it can constantly argue that Russia is the enemy and it will conquer all of Europe without NATO. This to me is the same as Athens demanding tribute from Greek cities that became the Delian League.  That alliance of Greek city-states led by Athens was formed in 478 BC as a defense to a “possible” revenge invasion from Persia following the Greek victories at Marathon, Salamis, and Plataea during the 5th century BC. Persian never again even attempted such an invasion. But Athens extorted the Greek City States and moved the central Treasury from Delos to Athens and used all that tribute to build great monuments in Athens. The USA is like Athens. It defeated the German Nazis like Athens defeated the Persians. We created NATO to then defend against the Russian Communists, but have supported the Ukrainian Neonazis ever since and protected them from any prosecution.

That exploitation led to discontent and many then joined with Sparta to attack the arrogance of Athens. It was then that Persia supported Sparta to defeat Athens in 404 BC. The question is rather blunt. Will history repeat and Russia join with China to take down the arrogance of the West and make Stolenberg choke on his own words – “Weapons are the way to peace.” Sorry, but Rome showed us the way to peace – inclusion, and trade. The West has done nothing but rejects allowing Russia to enter the Western economy. Once the people are dependent upon trade, that is what creates peace – never arms.

Athens fell in 404 BC. The cost of defending itself against Sparta backed by the Delian League and Persia led to its debasement of the coinage when the silver was running out. The emergency issue was bronze silver plated. The most common denomination became the drachm – debased at that. If history repeats, then the monetary system of the West will likewise collapse as it pours unjustified money into Ukraine – a government consumed with hatred. Peace will only come when the Ukrainian people overthrow Zelensky and wake up that they are merely being sacrificed in the war of hatred against Russia that is propelled by propaganda.

Just listen to the propaganda being spread by the Prime Minister of Finland who is prepared to also sacrifice her people on the altar of the Neocons.

Project Veritas Catches Pfizer R&D Official Stating Company Mutating COVID Viruses to Proactively Create Vaccines


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 25, 2023 | Sundance 

Project Veritas goes undercover and finds another top-level Pfizer Research and Development executive admitting the company is mutating COVID viruses to create vaccines. Instead of calling it “gain of function” research, which is illegal, they are calling it “directed evolution.”  This is very disturbing.

[NEW YORK – Jan. 25, 2023] Project Veritas released a new video today exposing a Pfizer executive, Jordon Trishton Walker, who claims that his company is exploring a way to “mutate” COVID via “Directed Evolution” to preempt the development of future vaccines.

Walker says that Directed Evolution is different than Gain-of-Function, which is defined as “a mutation that confers new or enhanced activity on a protein.” In other words, it means that a virus such as COVID can become more potent depending on the mutation / scientific experiment performed on it. (read more)

Bang War Drums Loudly, Joe Biden Announces U.S. Sending Tanks to Ukraine as Deeping NATO War Against Russia Continues


Posted originally on the CTH on January 25, 2023 | Sundance

The Biden administration is pushing the United States into war against Russia to protect Washington DC’s political and financial interests in Ukraine.  None of this is a surprise as both Republican and Democrat politicians in DC continue to use Ukraine as a money laundering operation for key U.S. stakeholders.

Today Joe Biden announced he is sending 31 ‘Abram Tanks’ from the U.S. arsenal into Ukraine to further push the United States into direct conflict with Russia.  The potential for direct U.S. military engagement in Ukraine is now just a matter of formality, as the Abram’s tanks will be accompanied by military advisors, trainers, and the processes to sustain and maintain them on the battlefield.   WATCH:

[Transcript] – […] “today, I’m announcing that the United States will be sending 31 Abram tanks to Ukraine, the equivalent of one Ukrainian battalion.

Secretary Austin has recommended this step because it will enhance the Ukraine’s capacity to defend its territory and achieve its strategic objectives.

The Abrams tanks are the most capable tanks in the world. They’re also extremely complex to operate and maintain, so we’re also giving Ukraine the parts and equipment necessary to effectively sustain these tanks on the battlefield.

And we begi- — we’ll begin to train the Ukrainian troops on these issues of sustainment, logistics, and maintenance as soon as possible. Delivering these tanks to the field is going to take time, time that we’ll see — we’ll use to make sure the Ukrainians are fully prepared to integrate the Abram tanks into their defenses.

We also closely coordinated this announcement with our Allies. (read more)

We are being pushed into a war that few Americans want.

This is getting out of hand mostly because the Russians are defeating Ukraine in the war.  Without the U.S. operators and material involved, Ukraine cannot win.  However, the Biden administration view Ukraine as a U.S. proxy in Europe, and as such all of the corrupt DC systems are in alignment to continue escalating this conflict.

This is happening against the backdrop of Ukraine officials being caught stealing money given to Ukraine to fight the war.

None of this is good, and it is likely to get worse.

WASHINGTON DC – […] The decision to provide the tanks marks a stunning reversal for the Biden administration, which had previously argued they would be of little benefit to Ukraine.

But the decision to send the Abrams tanks helped get Germany to move forward with a separate effort to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine, which the U.S. had seen as benefitting Kyiv.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Wednesday that Berlin would send Leopard tanks to Ukraine and allow for other European nations to also send the German-made tanks to Kyiv. (more)

Flirting with Nuclear Catastrophe, Pompeo/Khashoggi Controversy, AOC’s Goons, & More! | SYSTEM UPDATE #27


Glenn Greenwald Streamed on: Jan 24, 7:00 pm EST

Russia Prepared for NATO Invasion


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 25, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The West has decided to turn this into an all-out war to completely destroy Russia once and for all. Moscow has been put on high alert and air defenses are being put up in every sector of the city. The hardliners are being heard and Putin has little choice at this point. It has become absolutely obvious that even Germany now is sending tanks into Ukraine and they will be used to invade Russia. It appears that NATO “advisors” will be most likely driving these tanks.

I had hoped things would not unravel as quickly as they have. I warned that January was a major target in time coming up in our arrays. We also then have major targets in April/May and Panic Cycles in June. Even gold is moving higher which has NOTHING to do with inflation or the Fed. Gold rises during times of uncertainty with governments and war. Our computer has pinpointed the timing pretty well.

Even the prime minister of Finland has drunk the cool aid of war. Our world leaders are willing to throw everything society has accomplished into the rubbish all for this quest to destroy Russia, then China, and create this one-world dream of Soros and Schwab.

Understand that when war unfolds, they will impose capital controls in Europe ASAP. We even see Russian capital moving into Turkey buying real estate there in particular. Meanwhile, South Africa is aligning itself with Russia.

Nuclear War to Save the Plan


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 25, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Great article about Nuclear War and saving the planet. You forgot to mention Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The “science” says both cities should have been uninhabitable for a 1000 years after a nuclear war. Yet, their populations doubled in 20 years after being nuked? Hiroshima now has 9 times its 1945 population. In 1945, after the A-bomb, it was 137,000. Now they have 1.2 million people? Doesn’t make sense!

Mike

REPLY: You are correct. I have even visited the area. I did not think to add that. The idea that a nuclear attack will poison the area permanently is also bad science just like Climate Change and the Earth will fry all because of CO2. I somehow think that not just cockroaches will survive a nuclear blast, but I get this strange feeling so will the people at the WEF.

The Coming Great Global Default


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jan 25, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Martin
Could you please describe more in detail what you are expecting when talking about the breakdown of the monetary system?
Will there be differences between countries like Germany and Switzerland for example? Especially regarding pension systems.
I assume, there might be big differences between countries.
Many thanks and best regards,
R.

ANSWER: The monetary system collapsed with the winning of the American Revolution. The state currencies and the federal Continental Currency were all exchangeable to the new currency which became the U.S. dollar. There was a great disparity among the states with each being rated by the marketplace for the swap. Even when they created the Euro, there were differences between each currency.

The IMF right now is pushing very hard behind the curtain to replace the dollar with an IMF digital currency that they want to become the reserve currency. This would be EXTREMELY dangerous for the IMF is deep in corruption. The complaint of China, for example, is that the dollar is the reserve currency and they see that as a dangerous power in the hands of an adversary.

I have written much on the real problem of the dollar acting as the reserve currency and that this has thrust the Federal Reserve into the default role of the central bank of the world. The problem is all the propaganda against the Fed that is spun by the goldbugs which totally distorts the real crisis. They try to sell gold only on the quantity theory of money which dates back to the 17th century. It is so antiquated it is laughable. It is entirely domestic-focused to the exclusion of the world economy and international capital flows. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve is also living in the past and only sees the economy in domestic terms making it Fed Policy v Fiscal Policy, over which they have no control.

Only when you understand international capital flow movement will you ever even catch a glimpse of the real world. World War I sent the capital fleeing Europe and rushing to America. Because that capital was here, it increased the domestic buying power and the Europeans made the 1920s ROAR. They were participating in the Auto-Stock-Boom.

The first G4 took place in 1927 when the other central banks argued that the US had to lower its interest rates to deflect international capital which was needed in Europe to rebuild. Indeed, the capital inflows peaked in 1927 and began to decline. But it was the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931 that compelled major capital outflows to cover losses at home.

Hoover explained the crisis in 1931 in his Memoirs. So to answer your question will take a major report which I intend to publish. The subject is highly complicated and there will be major divergences that people must be aware of. The bottom line is that all governments intend to default on their prior debts. That is what unfolded even with the collapse of the Continental Government after winning the American Revolution.

We see similar outcomes also in France with their Revolution. We are staring into the eyes of a major global default in debt and we are on schedule cyclically for the next sovereign default period.

The Debt Ceiling Hits Pi – $31.4 Trillion


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Jan 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The debt ceiling has currently hit $31.4 trillion (Pi), representing borrowing that the Treasury undertakes to fund its financial obligations, ranging from safety-net benefits such as Social Security. Is this coincidence, or is the magic number where the government starts to lose control? As Socrates has been forecasting, this is the end of the road for our Republican forms of government. They are irresponsible, show no form of fiscal management, and exploit every possible means to sustain their power. The problem has been that they never see the end of the road. They think they can keep borrowing year after year and the public will keep buying.

The real crisis is the amount of new debt that the government needs to issue, is exceeding the balance sheet of the Primary Dealers. If they must buy the debt to retain their status, then if they cannot sell the debt, that is when you are looking at a major banking crisis. It is actually cheaper at this point to simply print the money and stop this fool’s game of pretending to be running the system responsibly.

It is time to turn out the lights on the stupid game of running endless deficits and borrowing when there is NEVER any intention to ever pay off the debt. Let’s stop the nonsense for this cannot continue indefinitely.

From the birth of the US paper dollar in 1861, it will be 19 intervals of 8.6 years in 2024. We have reached the Rubicon. It is almost time to celebrate a new beginning is on the horizon.