Tag Archives: The Forecaster

Jan 14 2020

Banks – Interest Rates – Mortgages


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

Re-Posted Jan 14, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Martin, as an avid follower, I took your advice to heart to try to fix our interest rate for the loan we have on our house. This was the answer I got from our direct advisor: “Have looked at your file, you can still enjoy your low-interest rate until 01/12/2020, in other words refinancing is only recommended at the earliest in November 2020. Your capital will then fall to 37,000 euros outstanding, the interest may already rise to 3 % (then you still benefit in November compared to refinance now!) ? Repocrisis is in the USA, Europe is supported by the ECB, which keeps interest rates low? Or am i wrong?” Isn’t this the perfect example of how well people are informed, even those working at the banks? Or do we already see some intended lingering of banks, trying not to get caught on the wrong side of the risk? Thanks for answering or using this in your private blog as a perfect example…

BL

ANSWER: They may have been instructed from above to keep loans floating because the Repo Crisis is demonstrating that rates are under pressure to rise, not fall!

If you have a mortgage that is floating, lock it in with a fixed rate.

Those looking to buy have a dilemma. On the one hand, real estate prices are high in many regions and you can wait for prices to come down before buying. On the other hand, when prices start to tumble it will be the result of an inability to get long-term fixed loans so prices will fall to where people will be able to get loans or pay cash. The solution may be to buy when you can get a long-term fixed mortgage and then hedge it with eventually shorting rates where there will be a liquid marke

Jan 14 2020

Superdome Crowd Goes Wild Cheering President Trump and First Lady Melania…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 13, 2020 by 

The crowd erupts into cheers and chants of “USA, USA” as President Trump and First Lady Melania are introduced during the College Football Championship game between Clemson and LSU in the New Orleans Superdome.  WATCH:

Clay Travis

✔@ClayTravis

39K

Twitter Ads info and privacy
6,194 people are talking about this

Dan Scavino

✔@DanScavino

Embedded video

20.4K

Twitter Ads info and privacy
6,324 people are talking about this

Washington Examiner

✔@dcexaminer

Crowd cheers @FLOTUS and @POTUS at the .

Chants of “U-S-A, U-S-A” could also be heard.

Embedded video

17.5K

Twitter Ads info and privacy
4,533 people are talking about this
Jan 14 2020

U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer Discusses China “Phase One” and Enforcement Tripwires…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 13, 2020 by 

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is a smart, serious and deliberate professional on a very specific and important mission for the United States.  In my opinion Lighthizer is the most under-appreciated member of an exceptionally good economic team. Everything about Lighthizer’s approach is based on enforcement.

Ambassador Lighthizer has been consistent over multiple years, on his intention to create enforceable trade reform between the U.S. and China, or, if needed, decouple the two economies if China fails to accept the necessary structural reforms.

Tonight, as the Chinese delegation arrives, Lighthizer discusses the U.S-China ‘phase-one’ agreement with Lou Dobbs. WATCH:

Jan 14 2020

President Trump Impromptu Remarks Departing White House – Video and Transcript….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 13, 2020 by 

Chopper pressers are the best pressers. Earlier today President Trump and First-Lady Melania Trump departed the White House traveling to New Orleans for the NCAA football championship game LSU -vs- Clemson. President Trump delivered brief remarks

[Video and Transcript Below].

.

[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: So we’re going to the game. It’ll be a great game. It’ll be something that a lot of people want to see. And we’ll be in New Orleans, and we look forward to it.

The stock market way up. The country is doing really well. And we’ll see you at the game.

Q Mr. President, what did the intelligence show about the threat to the four embassies? What did the intelligence show?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, first of all, I think it’s been totally consistent. But here’s what’s been consistent: We killed Soleimani, the number-one terrorist in the world by every account. Bad person. Killed a lot of Americans, killed a lot of people. We killed him. And when the Democrats try and defend him, it’s a disgrace to our country. They can’t do that. And, let me tell you, it’s not working politically very well for them.

So, we killed the number-one terrorist in the world — Soleimani — and it should have been done 20 years ago.

We’ll see you at the game. Thank you.

END 4:21 P.M. EST

Jan 13 2020

Could the Fed Ever Exit the Repo Market?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

Re-Posted Jan 13, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

It is stunning how after more than three months, the analysis on the repo market is still nowhere close to reality. I believe that those in the trenches are, like me, afraid to really explain what is taking place for fear they will be blamed for creating a financial panic.

The popular explanation in September was repeated by the Wall Street Journal: “For one, Monday marked the deadline for companies to submit their quarterly federal tax payments.” This was standard analysis put out by the countless pundits the press rely upon and they have to come up with some explanation and quick. When analysts spout out their explanations to mainstream media it is because they are trying to get business. People have often asked me why I do not do mainstream media interviews. First, I do not need the business. Secondly, when you have real clients, they prefer to pay for information and do not want it on the front pages of newspapers for free. They appreciate analysis that is exclusive rather than as common as dirt. Hence, the analysis put out in the press about the Repo Crisis is coming from people who have no real clients in the area and lack the expertise in the field to start with.

Not even the central banks understood what was going on because even they tend to be domestically oriented. Despite the obvious fact that we live in a global economy, all the economic theories, analysis, and experience have been domestically focused. Unless someone has been in the trenches globally, they will never see the wildcard coming from external sources. Hence, we get the calls to explain things ONLY because they know all the other major institutions are also coming to us as some sort of the central point of reference.

The question that is now dominating everyone’s inquiries, can the Fed exit the repo market after being the dominant source of liquidity for more than three months? What will it take for the Federal Reserve to withdraw from its daily liquidity operations in this $2.2 trillion market for repurchase agreements (repos)?

All I am prepared to say publicly is that the solution is beyond the powers of all the central banks combined. The solution is not attainable without political concessions, which politically are just off the table. This is going to require a major reform that is unlikely to take place and will not even be recognized until the crisis erupts on a much larger scale

Jan 13 2020

Sunday Talks: Secretary Steven Mnuchin Discusses Sanctions Against Iran and Upcoming U.S-China Trade Signing…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 12, 2020 by 

Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin appears with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the latest round of sanctions against Iran.  Secretary Mnuchin notes the economic engagement by China with Iran may open up Beijing to countermeasures for violating sanctions.

Additionally, Secretary Mnuchin outlines some aspects of the U.S-China ‘phase-one’ trade agreement and affirms the key point of enforcement mechanisms built into the agreement by U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer.  The official signing is this coming Wednesday.

Jan 12 2020

Hit the Road Nancy!


HIT THE ROAD NANCE, AND DON’T COME BACK.. BREAKING NEWS: NANCY CAVES…

When will House Speaker Nancy Pelosi send the articles of impeachment onto the Senate for trial?

Nobody seems to know for sure, but many in her party are growing impatient over the delay. It could be that Nancy wants to make sure the trial is rigged in favor of impeachment, but the Majority Leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, is not cooperating.

Pelosi rushed the impeachment proceedings through the House with no real evidence, which made the Democrats look ridiculously partisan. Now Pelosi is sitting on the process, which also makes her and her party look ridiculous.

Pelosi’s road to impeachment is a waste of time. It takes our country in the wrong direction. It’s a dead end.

—Ben Garrison

Jan 12 2020

Aiding and Abetting: How Democrat Candidates Attack Trump’s Iran Attack


151K subscribers

Will Democrat presidential candidates show restraint when they attack President Trump’s attack on Iran’s Qassem Soleimani, because American security and global reputation is more important than scoring political points? And how much crowing about military accomplishments will American voters tolerate from the incumbent? Bill Whittle Now with Scott Ott is a production of our Members. Join them now at https://BillWhittle.com/register/ How would you like to meet the hosts of your favorite shows, and (more importantly) your fellow fans, on a relaxing Caribbean cruise? Join us May 15-18. Find out more and book your cabin: http://bit.ly/StratoCruise2020 Listen to Bill Whittle Network on your favorite podcast player http://bit.ly/BWN-Podcasts Watch us on Fire TV: https://amzn.to/2Pa1mI3 Support us at https://Patreon.com/billwhittle
Jan 12 2020

Pension Crisis – Congress is Unable to Act Because of Gridlock


Armstrong Ecomics Blog/Pension Crisis

Re-Posted Jan 12, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Trump has called the Democrats the do-nothings. All they have been focused on is impeaching Trump for the polls they are looking at behind the curtain all show Trump will beat whoever they put up as their candidate. the motto has been – if you can’t beat him, impeach him. There is no other area where the Democrats have just failed to act with a major crisis looming in 2021 than the spreading of the Pension Crisis.

There are pensions that are multi-employer funds which are perhaps the first to fall in the private sector. The Republicans did slip a rescue package into the massive $1.4 trillion spending bill passed last month. That was all because the United Mine Workers of America pensions would have failed completely and the push from environmentalists against mining and energy only puts pensions in those areas at serious risk after 2020.

The Republicans, interestingly enough, have no problem with the bailout but want to raise premiums that employers must contribute. Conversely, the Democrats who have been backed by such unions have argued for low-interest loans and not to force higher premiums on employees or employers.

The Republicans and Democrats are so deeply divided on how to solve the broader pension crisis problem, that this immediate impasse illustrates what I have been warning about that government is just collapsing incapable of bipartisan solutions. The Democrats simply refuse to act for they fear that Trump would get the credit for solving the pension crisis among unions that traditionally have backed the Democrats.

This entire issue has become not about solving any crisis but who gets credit and thus we have a government incapable of acting for the benefit of the people. As I have said, this is how governments eventually collapse. They become so corrupt and divided, they are incapable of managing the state.

 

Jan 12 2020

Has President Trump Forgotten The Declassification Material He Delayed then Deferred?…


Re-Posted from The Conservative tree house on January 11, 2020 by 

President Trump asks: “Are these “dirty cops” going to pay a big price for the fraud they committed?” 

However, the only person who can honestly answer that question is the person in the mirror when President Trump brushes his teeth.   Perhaps forgotten…

In the spring of 2018 a group of congressional reps led by Devin Nunes, Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Louie Gohmert, Lee Zeldin and Bob Goodlatte, asked President Trump to declassify a series of documents so the public could see how former officials in the DOJ & FBI abused their offices and conducted political surveillance.

In September of 2018, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein asked President Trump not to declassify those same documents until after the Mueller probe was complete.  Rosenstein informed the President (confirmed in later POTUS interviews) that declassifying the material could be interpreted as impeding the Mueller investigation.

Two months later, in November 2018, the mid-term election took place.  Republicans lost the House and their committee chairs.  Many people suspected (I concur) the mid-term election was the real motive for the Sept. 2018 request from Rosenstein.  Four months after the mid-term, March 2019, the Mueller investigation of President Trump ended.

Two months after the Mueller probe ended U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr, a profoundly supportive voice for DAG Rosenstein, asked President Trump to grant him unilateral declassification authority to assist the purposes and intents of his DOJ effort.  President Trump granted U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr with the authority to declassify on May 23rd, 2019; granting access to the same documents requested by congress a year earlier.

May 23, 2019:

Each time President Trump has come close to declassifying the material someone from the DOJ intercepts the anticipated action and blocks the release.  In 2018 it was DAG Rod Rosenstein. In 2019 it was AG Bill Barr…. Both motives identical.

Amid the twists and turns many people have forgotten about the material congress asked President Trump to declassify two-years-ago.  Additionally there has been some material cited that just seemingly slipped away without follow-up.  Consider:

  • Whatever happened to the forty pages of Lisa Page and Andrew McCabe text messages that Catherine Herridge noted nine months ago?  Herridge only published four of the pages in March 2019.
  • Why are the Lisa Page and Peter Strzok text messages still redacted two years after their original release (December 1st, 2017)?
  • Where’s the release of the Susan Rice inauguration day memo to the file?
  • Why didn’t the DOJ/FBI release all of the Bruce Ohr 302’s without redaction?  Will those fully unredacted 302’s be part of the IG report release?
  • Where’s the unredacted David Archey FBI declarations that were previously ordered to be released by a DC judge?
  • The Mueller investigation ended 9 months ago.  Why are we still not able to see the  unredacted three authorization memos that Rosenstein gave to the special counsel on May 17th, August 2nd and October 20th, 2017?

Those simple questions (and releases) are in addition to the original list that congress provided to President Trump back in the spring of 2018.  A declassification list that DAG Rod Rosenstein asked President Trump not to release until after the Mueller investigation.

  • All versions of the Carter Page FISA applications.
  • All of the Bruce Ohr 302’s filled out by the FBI. [Without redactions]
  • All of Bruce Ohr’s emails. All supportive documents and material provided by Bruce Ohr to the FBI. [Without redactions]
  • All relevant documents pertaining to the supportive material within the FISA application.
  • All intelligence documents that were presented to the Gang of Eight in 2016 that pertain to the FISA application used against U.S. person Carter Page; including all intelligence documents that may not have been presented to the FISA Court. Presumably this would include the revealed State Dept Kavalac email; and the FBI transcripts from wiretaps of George Papadopoulos (also listed in Carter Page FISA). [AKA ‘Bucket Five’]
  • All unredacted text messages and email content between Lisa Page and Peter Strzok on all devices.
  • The originating CIA “EC” or two-page electronic communication from former CIA Director John Brennan to FBI Director James Comey that started Operation Crossfire Hurricane in July 2016.

Additionally, since the 2018 list was developed, more information surfaced about the underlying material.  This created the tell-tale sign of a document trail that is easily followed:

♦ The August 2nd, 2017, two-page scope memo provided by DAG Rod Rosenstein to special counsel Robert Mueller to expand the fraudulent Trump investigation, and initiate the more purposeful obstruction of justice investigation. Also the October 20th, 2017, third scope memo that expanded the investigation again, and targeted additional people including Michael Flynn’s family. The Scope Memos are keys to unlocking the underlying spy/surveillance cover-up. [SEE HERE and SEE HERE]

♦ The July 31st, 2016, Crossfire Hurricane counterintelligence operation originated from a scheme within the intelligence apparatus.  The CIA operation  created the originating “Electronic Communication” memo. Declassify that two-page “EC” document that Brennan gave to Comey.  [The trail is found within the Weissmann report and the use of Alexander Downer – SEE HERE]

♦ Release and declassify all of the Comey memos that document the investigative steps taken by the FBI as an outcome of the operation coordinated by CIA Director John Brennan in early 2016.  [The trail was memorialized by James Comey – SEE HERE]  Release and declassify the declarations of FBI Agent David Archey that describe the purpose of the Comey memos:

♦ Reveal the November 2015 through April 2016 FISA-702 search query abuse by declassifying the April 2017 court opinion written by FISC Presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer. Show the FBI contractors behind the 85% fraudulent search queries. [Crowdstrike? Fusion-GPS? Nellie Ohr? Daniel Richman?]  This was a weaponized surveillance and domestic political spying operation. [The trail was laid down in specific detail by Judge Collyer – SEE HERE]

♦ Did anyone question former DOJ-NSD (National Security Division) head John Carlin, and get his testimony about why he hid the abuse from the FISA court in October 2016; why the DOJ-NSD rushed the Carter Page application to beat NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers to the FISA court; and why did John Carlin quit immediately thereafter?

♦ The Carter Page FISA application (October 2016) was fraudulent, and likely based on deceptions to the FISA Court. Declassify the entire document, and release the transcripts of those who signed the application(s); and/or depose those who have not yet testified. The creation of the Steele Dossier was the cover-up operation. [SEE HERE]  What version of the FISA application will be released (if at all)?

♦ Release all of the Lisa Page and Peter Strzok text messages without redactions. Let sunlight pour in on the actual conversation(s) that were taking place when Crossfire Hurricane (July ’16) and the FISA Application (Oct ’16) were taking place.  The current redactions were made by the people who weaponized the intelligence system for political surveillance and spy operation.  This is likely why Page and Strzok texts were redacted!

♦ Release all of Bruce Ohr 302’s without redactions.  And FBI notes from interviews and debriefing sessions, and other relevant documents associated with the interviews of Bruce Ohr and his internal communications. Including exculpatory evidence that Bruce Ohr may have shared with FBI Agent Joseph Pientka. [And did anyone get a deposition from this Pientka fella?] Bruce Ohr is the courier, carrying information from those outside to those on the inside.

If President Trump genuinely wants to deal with the FBI issue… All he has to do is remind himself what congressional allies wanted almost two years ago; and release the requested documentation… everything after that becomes much easier.