The Top Stories Taiwan & Berlin


Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Blinken Anthony

Anthony Blinken cannot sleep at night when there is world peace. He is like a drunk in a bar who punches you because you looked in his direction, and he ASSUMED you were going to punch him first – so he does what he wrongly thought you would do. This guy is so dangerous to National Security that it’s not funny.  China has now accused the US of sending “a gravely wrong signal” to those pushing for Taiwan’s independence after Saturday’s election result.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent Taiwanese president-elect William Lai a message of congratulations following the election. Blinken’s prayers and those of his fellow Neocons were answered. His message of congratulations for Lai’s victory, who is a staunch independence supporter, emphasized the partnership between Taipei and Washington, which he said was rooted in democratic values.

Blinken said: “We look forward to working with Dr. Lai and Taiwan’s leaders of all parties to advance our shared interests and values,” adding that the US is “committed to maintaining cross-strait peace and stability” and that he looked forward to collaborating which he hoped would “further our longstanding unofficial relationship” and be “consistent with the US One China policy.”

China viewed the message as a violation of Washington’s commitment to maintain only unofficial ties with Taiwan. The conflict is clearly the result of the US Neocons and even Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, which gave the people the impression that the United States was supporting war with China. Our sources say that this “impression” is what supported the victory of Mr. Lai, who has vowed to protect Taiwan from an increasingly aggressive China. Of course, China has become more aggressive when slapped in the face by the Neocons. As long as everyone agreed to the one-China policy, then there was no pressing urgency to invade Taiwan. With this rising tension, China will be compelled to act, or in their culture, it will be a loss of face. For the life of me, I cannot understand how someone like Pelosi and Blinken have no real understanding of the world they wanted to rule.

Taiwanese_Stock M 1 14 24
Taiwanese_Stock M Array 1 14 24

We had a Directional Change in Taiwan for January, and the election went according to Socrates’ forecast. But note that we also have a Panic Cycle in February, which also shows up in Shanghai.

Germany Farmer Protest at the Brandenburg Gate
DAX M 1 14 24

In Europe, we have the complete incompetence of European leaders who have set up a crisis that I seriously doubt they understood. Even in the DAX, January was a key target, as is March. If there is going to be war in Europe, the first target will be June.

Sketchy Stuff Again – This Announcement and Story Just Doesn’t Pass Sniff Test


Posted originally on the CTH on January 14, 2024 | Sundance 

I hate to be captain obvious again, but maybe people have not noticed this story.  Something isn’t right and just doesn’t add up.  The events took place last Thursday, the comments by National Security Council spokesman John Kirby are today.

Look at the contrast between what U.S. Central Command put out -vs- the first AP report on the same incident.

[CentCom Source LINK]

Now look at the AP FIRST NOTICE reporting:

Two U.S. Navy SEALs are missing after conducting a nighttime boarding mission Thursday off the coast of Somalia, according to three U.S. officials.

The SEALs were on an interdiction mission, climbing up a vessel when one got knocked off by high waves. Under their protocol, when one SEAL is overtaken the next jumps in after them.

Both SEALs are still missing. A search and rescue mission is underway and the waters in the Gulf of Aden, where they were operating, are warm, two of the U.S. officials said. (read more)

We are supposed to believe that two naval special force operators, Navy SEALS, doing a ship-to-ship transfer, fully kitted, fell into the water, suddenly disappeared and could not be located in the two days between the CentCom announcement (Jan 11) and the AP report (Jan 13).

Eh… nope.  Sketchy!

So, here’s National Security Council spokesman John Kirby today.  WATCH:

.

Notice the emphasis on…. “The mission was not related to Operation Prosperity Guardian, the ongoing U.S. and international mission to provide protection to commercial vessels in the Red Sea, or the retaliatory strikes that the United States and the United Kingdom have conducted in Yemen over the past two days.”… 

Sorry, but when you spend so much time telling me what it is not, I suspect it is exactly what you say it isn’t.

So, my non-pretending Occam’s razor takeaway:

Two Navy SEAL combat “KIA’s”, killed in action directly as a result of U.S. operations in/around Yemen, have been turned into two innocuous Navy SEAL “MIA’s” because their death would be politically problematic for the administration.

Interview: Gold Surges Between War-Driven Inflation Dynamics


Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |

Interview with GoldSeek Radio:

Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, reviews charts of the major indexes in real-time, noting “2024 could be a chaotic year.”

– Interest rates rise during boom periods.

“Yeah, I think people have to understand that the vast majority of analysis out there is all domestic. They’re just calling for the Fed and I think so many of them are talking about a major crash in 2024. What they never do is look outside the country. And honestly, if you look at the 3 indexes look at the Dow, the S&P, and then the NASDAQ, you’ll see the Dow leading.

And that is basically showing you that what’s going on here is international capital inflows. I mean, the more it’s getting crazy for wars just about everywhere. From Asia, you’re looking at the Middle East. You’re looking at Europe. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little bit and hedging their bets and they’re moving money to the States. That’s why the Dow has been rising, more so than you see. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little.

… but then again you have people just looking at the Fed and talking about ‘Oh, transparency.’ And is they only ever keep talking about old defense, going to ‘Lower rates, lower rates, lower rates.’

If you really look at it, objectively, interest rates always rise during boom periods, and they decline during recessions and depressions. We are looking at increased inflation, probably into 2028 caused by shortages and war. But you’re looking at a declining economic growth, so that ends up being more like the 1970s…and you’re looking there at what we call “Stagflation” where the inflation rate will be higher than economic growth.

– Increased inflation could erupt due to supply shortages and skirmishes.
– Stagflation similar to the 70’s could soon come to the domestic economy.

“That was basically caused by OPEC raising the price of oil dramatically and that created a cost-push inflation. So everybody’s costs were rising dramatically. Anything that had to do with plastic, went up dramatically and that created eventually the inflationary boom between 1976 going into 1980. As for gold rose to $875, etc…I think gold was about a $100 in 1976 and it rose to about $400 but that was by December 1979, the last six weeks of the rally, which peaked in 1980 on January 21st. So from December to January 21st, that’s when Russia invaded Afghanistan. So it was the geopolitical stuff that took gold from $400 to $875. So it’s important to understand inflation is not the major driving power but inflation when war is around – that’s what broke Bretton Woods…it was the Vietnam War.”

– Funds may be flowing into the blue-chip Dow Jones 30 stocks from global unrest.
– Geopolitical opinion and commentary.

Ep 3255b-[WEF]/[DS] Panics Over Anti-System Movement,Tide Is Turning,Retribution Will Be Our Success


Posted originally on Rumble By X22 Report on: Jan 11, 24 10:30 pm EST

Kevin O’Leary Explains to Stunned CNN Audience Why New York Case Against President Trump Is Nonsense


Published originally on the CTH on January 12, 2024 | Sundance

Everything about the case in New York City against the Trump Organization business operations is ridiculous.  There are no victims.  There was no fraud.  All of the lenders did their own due diligence.  All of the loans were paid back without issue, and the statement of financial condition was factual and accurate.  There were no defaults or banking interests adversely impacted. There are no victims of what the State calls “fraud.”

New York Attorney General Latisha James campaigned for office with promises to target the Trump Organization and Donald Trump himself.  This is malicious Lawfare in the extreme.  Additionally, the statute being used as the predicate for the case is a consumer fraud statute, intended to protect borrowers from predatory lenders. In the four corners of this case, Trump is the borrower, and the banks were the lenders.  New York is flipping the statute to claim the borrower defrauded the lenders, despite the lenders denying there was any fraud and there was no harm.   The entire case is ridiculous.

Appearing on CNN, O’Leary Ventures Chairman Kevin O’Leary outlines, to a perplexed Laura Coates, why Donald Trump’s civil fraud trial in New York is political nonsense. WATCH (prompted):

TRANSCRIPT – O’LEARY: Well, let’s leave out Trump for a minute, and let’s leave out politics, and just talk about what happens in real estate development anywhere. So, if you’re a developer and you’ve got a building on the block, anywhere in America, and it’s worth, let’s say, $500 million, and you want to build a building right beside it, you go to the bank and say, “This building is worth $500 million. I’d like to borrow a construction finance loan against this asset, and I want you to tell me it’s worth $500 million too.”

And the bank negotiates with you, and says, “Well no, we think it’s worth $400 million,” and you fight it out. You are always trying to show your assets in the brightest light with the sunshine you can possibly determine for them. You want them to be worth the very most because you’re only going to get a 40 to 50 percent loan to value, as it’s called. Then you borrow that money, in the case of a $500 million asset, maybe you get $250 million, and you build the new building with a construction finance loan. So that’s what this case is all about. 

And by the way, forget about Trump, every single real estate developer everywhere on earth does this. They always talk about their asset being worth a lot and the bank says no. That’s just the way it is. So in this case, what I’m trying to figure out, and I’m not pro or con, or I don’t care about the politics, who lost money? Nobody. The bank got paid back the construction finance loan, and a new building was built. If you’re going to sue this case and win, you’ve gotta sue every real estate developer everywhere. This is all they do. This is what they do all day long every day. So I don’t think this thing will ever survive appeal regardless of what the fine is. This doesn’t even make sense. 

Now look, I understand Trump has a lot of problems in other indictments and everything else, but if you’re a real estate developer, you’re watching this and saying, “What is this? This is ridiculous.”

Poland’s New Govt Pro-War & Pro-EU


Posted originally on Jan 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Poland 2024 Election

It’s a real crime what’s happening to the Polish people at the hands of what many see as traitors who are taking directives from foreign organizations that will take Poland into a disastrous war with Russia. Poland’s right-wing, now opposition, has called on its supporters to protest against this new pro-European Union government. Unfortunately, our political models on Poland warned that with eight years (8.6) under the Law and Justice party, they would lose, and the shift would be to the globalist agenda in last October’s parliamentary elections. The protest was called for the same day when the Supreme Court was to rule on the validity of the election in the first place.

Poland ECM 1989 2041

Based on the ECM for Poland, we can see that October 26, 2023, was a significant turning point. Unfortunately, this aligned with our war cycles and then turned into 2028. The dollar avoided any sell signals against the zloty at the end of 2023. You have overhead resistance at 4.02 and 4.20. If the low of 2023 now holds, this does not look good for Poland going forward. April will be the critical target in 2024, and we see the danger of higher volatility with a Panic Cycle in October.

The Real Horror of Labor Statistics


Posted originally on Jan 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

1 Martin Armstrong

Let me explain about labor statistics. Back in the ’90s, one staff member was in charge of verifying all government statistics worldwide. That project produced some really eye-opening facts. We discovered that in GDP, the government counts total government spending and total personal income (private & public). We could not find where they were backing out of the government payroll. I called the head of the BLS and said that this mistake was so egregious that they had to be backing it out somewhere. I was told they would get back to me. After some time passed, I called and said, hey, I don’t remember you getting back to me. The response was – NO COMMENT.

This means when Biden hires 87,000 IRS agents to harass small businesses, from a statistical basis, it is the economic function in GDP or creating 174,000 jobs. Every small business must now reveal who is the beneficial owner and they must report to the government where they live and if they dare to change residence. Failure to do so is prison time. This is why the Founding Fathers outlawed any direct taxation. They knew people would then be accountable to the government for absolutely everything they do. If you own a small business, it reminds me of what I saw behind the Berlin Wall. You were not allowed to move without the permission of the government. Oh, how power always consumes everything.

1984 George Orwell

In high school, I had to read George Orwell’s 1984. That would probably be on the disinformation list along with Atlas Shrugged today and banned in most schools. Nevertheless, the one line that stuck with me was none other than:

“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.”

Bureau of Labor Statistics Fabricated One-Third of Newly Created Jobs in 2023


Posted Jan 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 
Jobs

The US government consistently lies on their jobs reports released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The agency initially cheered at the 3,140,000 new positions created in 2023, but later revised the figure down to 443,000. But wait, the BLS made another miscalculation in March to the tune of 306,000 jobs. This means that one-third of all new positions added in 2023 were a LIE.

Obviously they fabricated job growth under Biden in the wake of COVID regulations. Of course the economy added thousands of new jobs – you prevented businesses from remaining open for years! The Federal Reserve used this false data for monetary policy, continually citing a strong job market as one of the economy’s saving graces.

These calculations were FAR off to the point where the math cannot be seen as a mere error. The calculations were off for 11 out of 12 months last year. Let us look at history and ask the most important question: has this been done before? YES!

“By the time you include all the monthly revisions and the annual benchmark revision, about one-quarter of all the jobs we thought were added last year have been revised away,” E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, told the DCNF. “That pattern of consistent downward revisions has happened in two prior recessions. It is a result of market conditions changing too rapidly for the BLS to adjust their methodology, which in turn causes consistent errors in measuring nonfarm payrolls.”

Unemployment_Rate 2022_04_14

The BLS has continually tailored their method for calculating employment. One of the key surveys used is the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is a monthly survey of households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the BLS. The unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed individuals divided by the labor force, multiplied by 100. BLS creates occupational employment projections in a product called the National Employment Matrix, which describes the employment of detailed occupations within detailed wage and salary categories, including those who are self-employed or employed by a private household. The BLS also develops participation rate projections using data from the CPS conducted by the Census Bureau. So there is inaccurate data coming from multiple places.

In 2023, the agency made changes to its calculations in 2023, including the implementation of a new weight smoothing procedure for state and metropolitan area employment data. They have recalculated this figure for Q1 of 2024 and will check back to see if the numbers are where they want them to be. Procedures for reducing nonsampling errors, such as data collection reinterviews, observed interviews, and systematic reviews of collected data. They claim that falling survey responses are reducing the accuracy of their reports. The agency also claims their statistical calculations are subject to a widening difference between preliminary and final releases.

So they have a general idea of employment in the country when they initially release their reports. Why bother to release them at all until the data settles? They know that the markets jump on anticipation of the monthly jobs reports and central banks and institutions factor that data into their planning.

So coincidentally, the BLS happens to be far off the mark during economic downturns. These must be the same people budgeting for the Pentagon or IRS, as the numbers they provide to the public simply do not matter and no one is ever investigated.

US Kids Forced Out of School for Illegal Migrants


Posted originally on Jan 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

The US invasion from the south has simply gone too far. These far-left politicians need to realize that the migrants cannot vote for them just yet, and they’re rapidly losing support among their own citizens due to policies that favor illegal migrants over taxpayers. New York, the friendly welcoming city, is now preventing children from attending school as they are converting tax-funded buildings into migrant shelters.

Around 1,900 migrants have been living in a tent city (Bidenville), Floyd Bennett Field, as the city seemingly exhausted every available resource. There were numerous reports of an uptick in crime among the illegal migrants who even began knocking door to door at personal residences to panhandle. Instead of ensuring the safety of NY residents, officials worried about the safety of the non-taxpayers who should not be in this in country amid the winter months.

New York government officials had the bright idea of moving 1,900 illegal migrants into James Madison High School. What about the kids who are attempting to learn in person after suffering through years of COVID restrictions? The US government told those children that they could no longer attend school and gave them LESS THAN ONE DAY of notice.

“To be clear, this relocation is a proactive measure being taken out of an abundance of caution to ensure the safety and wellbeing of individuals working and living at the center,” City Hall spokeswoman Kayla Mamelak said.

Teachers were dismissed from school early and will be forced to attend school virtually. The teachers had no time to prepare for virtual learning or lesson plans. The students were previously required to pass a metal detector when entering the building, but the illegal may bypass every single safety measure.

Why would they select a school building? All sporting events and school functions have been canceled. CBS reported that community leaders have offered officials a list of countless abandoned building nearby. The government quietly moved the migrants into the school overnight without notice to avoid protests or interference. Worse, they KNEW Floyd Bennet field was a flood zone and unsustainable for a tent city or Bidenville.

The Legal Aid Society and the Coalition for the Homeless issued a joint statement that calls the move “traumatic and disruptive” to students. The organizations noted that the city clearly has no long-term plan in place as they are unable to provide any details, such as how long the school will remain closed. ““Needless to say, today will be very traumatic and disruptive for these families. We fear, especially with more inclement weather expected this winter, that this is only a foreshadow of more problems to come, and we again urge the City to cease placing families with children at this facility,” the group noted.

Parents are completely outraged. Remove the tax on public schools if our buildings are being used to bribe future voters. The state of New York has prioritized ILLEGAL migrants over their own citizens. States are becoming increasingly desperate. They’d rather deport your child from the classroom than ask an illegal to go through the proper procedures to live in America.

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Farmers Protest, the Biggest Protests in German History


Posted originally on the CTH on January 11, 2024 | Sundance

Nice to see Tucker Carlson bringing attention to the biggest protests in modern German history.  Eva Vlaardingerbroek left the Netherlands to provide support for the farmers in Germany.   WATCH:

BIG STORY BACKGROUND HERE ]