Posted originally on May 3, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Home prices in the US are near all-time highs. As I repeatedly stated, we can no longer look at real estate on the national level. Demand and value are contained to certain states and areas of certain states that the public has deemed most desirable, largely due to political factors such as taxes. Yet, at the moment, buyers are swiping up real estate where available. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller posted a 6.4% gain in February after January’s 6% spike, marking the fastest uptick in home prices since November 2022.
The 20-city composite jumped 7.3% on an annual basis, rising from January’s posting of 6.6%. The 10-city composite saw an 8% annual rise, up from 7.4% in January. February was the third consecutive month of rising home prices in all cities, with Washington D.C., New York, San Diego, and Los Angeles experiencing all-time highs in price.
San Diego saw an 11.4% annual rise in home prices, the largest jump in the 20-city composite. Detroit and Chicago posted 8.9% annual gains. Yes, we will eventually see the red states surpass the blue. Smart money is moving into assets like real estate. The downside of real estate is that they impose a property tax on it annually, but investors enjoy that passive income.
There is a notion of “now or never” among first-time buyers as it simply no longer makes sense financially to rent. A person’s ability to qualify for that first downpayment has diminished with rising rental costs. Rental costs increased 3.15% from February 2023 to February 2024, further rising to 3.6% annually in March of this year. This is close to the pre-pandemic growth rate of around 4.1%, but rental pricing is up 36.6% from the pre-pandemic era. While difficult to judge on a national basis, the average rental now costs $1,983 per month, but it is much higher in places like New York City ($3,206 average) or San Francisco ($3,024) hence why we are seeing people sweeping up real estate there.
Shelter is 34% of CPI. The April 10 release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that shelter costs have risen for the past 40 months. In March, shelter costs were the largest contributing factor for core inflation. Rising home prices will not benefit the economy or lead to any positive indicators that inflation is waning.
Posted originally on May 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
“I don’t see the ‘stag’ or the ‘-flation’,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during his Wednesday address.
Powell believed inflation would be “transitory.” He believed that the economy would come down for a “soft landing.” He believed we would enter the year and see numerous cuts due to waning inflation coming closer to the fictional 2% target. Yet again, Chairman Jerome Powell has missed the mark on stagflation.
If you really look at it, objectively, interest rates always rise during boom periods, and they decline during recessions and depressions. We will see increased inflation, probably into 2028 caused by shortages and war. But you’re looking at a declining economic growth, so that ends up being more like the economy of the 1970s, and you’re looking at what we call “Stagflation” where the inflation rate will be higher than economic growth.
Chair Jerome Powell said officials are prepared to hike again if price pressures return. He indicated that they were now considering when to cut rates as inflation subsides to their fictional and arbitrary 2% goal. Rate cuts are only sustainable once you see the economy decline. The events that unfold around May 7, primarily regarding war, will highlight what we need to know.
Inflation rising above economic growth is STAGFLATION, which is precisely what the economy experiences during war. Inflation will rise faster than GDP, causing the purchasing power of the USD to decline.
One major factor that is never included in the inflation numbers is TAXATION. Their theory is that taxes are the citizens’ obligation and not part of our cost of living. Yet, those at the top are seeing half or more of their wealth siphoned by Washington. We already know that the jobs reports are grossly distorted. To calculate GDP, they include total personal income and government spending. In March, we saw the public sector multiply, which only causes more of a burden on the taxpayer. The ADP that was released today indicated a spike in hospitality among the private sector, but we tend to see that before the summer months in the US. The public sector contributes absolutely nothing to GDP.
WAR WILL LEAD TO STAGFLATION. Of course, the Fed cannot come out and say that they see a looming escalation of war on the horizon, and Washington certainly would not come out and say to prepare for war. Socrates is impartial to bias and was correct about this inflationary trend into 2024. We are poised for a directional change in Q3 of 2025, implying an escalation in the war cycle post-2024.
Switzerland-based Nord Stream AG filed a lawsuit against the insurers for refusing to compensate the company. Nord Stream estimated the cost incurred by the attack to be between €1.2 billion and €1.35 billion and is seeking to recoup over €400 million in damages. The insurers, Lloyd’s Insurance Company and Arch Insurance Company responded that since the Nord Stream explosions were “more likely than not to have been inflicted by… a government,” they have no responsibility to pay for damages to the pipelines.
British insurers took the position that they have no obligation to honor their coverage of the Nord Stream pipelines because they were blown up in September 2022, because they were destroyed as an unprecedented act of sabotage, most likely carried out by a national government. They have contradicted reports of the Washington Post and others claiming that a private Ukrainian team was responsible for the massive act of industrial sabotage.
In their legal brief, you can download above, filed by Lloyd’s and Arch Insurance Companies, they state that the “defendants will rely on, inter alia, the fact that the explosion Damage could only have (or, at least, was more likely than not to have) been inflicted by or under the order of a government.”
Consequently, they argue, “the Explosion Damage was “directly or indirectly occasioned by, happening through, or in consequence of”the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and therefore falls under an exclusion relating to military conflicts. This is important because regardless of your insurance, going into war means they will never pay any claims. Personally, I have NEVER had any insurance company EVER pay what I was covered for. When I die, I am sure they will claim that he is a clone and he is hiding somewhere.
A tree once fell on my brand-new car in a storm. It was then sent to Bordentown Autobody to be repaired. They burned down with my car in it. Allstate Insurance screwed me because I paid cash for the car, and as soon as they knew no bank was involved, they claimed there were two deductibles and subtracted about 25%, knowing that would be my legal fees to make it UNREALISTIC to sue them. Insurance is ALWAYS a scam.
Posted 0riginally on Apr 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
A word to individuals who mock those looking for safe havens. We do not realize how lucky we are to live in America, Canada, or elsewhere during this current time period. Those who write in desperately seeking a safe haven are NOT simply greedy people looking to evade taxation. People are looking to evade government oppression.
Take a look at Russia and Ukraine. I know a woman with family in Russia. She can visit Russia, but her son cannot. Her son was born in Russia but has lived in America since he was a child. If he were to step foot on Russian soil, he would be required to serve in the war. There are countless Ukrainian men hiding out with their families, praying that Zelensky fails so that the war will come to an end. Families with young boys do not want to see their sons go to war when they reach a certain age. Young men in these nations simply do not have a future other than acting as cannon fodder in a senseless war that in no way benefits their people. Ukraine is asking older men to join the war effort now too as the replenishment rate is unsustainable. People may flee overseas, but the government will seek them out and punish them if they dare to return. The place they once called home no longer exists.
The government owns them.
We are witnessing all governments diving deeper into tyranny amid this wave of private confidence where all hope in government is lost. Many western governments are now attempting to impose ridiculous taxes that ensure the people are financially owned by the state.
The West is already talking about requiring women to serve as well amid this woke ideology where we live in a genderless society where a “birthing person” has no role in caring for future generations as it is the government’s job. Hence why governments are eliminating parents’ rights to choose what their children learn in schools or believe because, as Joe Biden said, your child is “everyone’s kid.”
This goes far beyond merely evading taxation. Militaries are continually failing to meet their annual recruitment standards. Younger readers do not recall the last US draft for Vietnam. Families gathered around the TV and anxiously awaited the government’s lottery drawing. If your birthday was selected by the lottery drawing, you were required to serve in the military and leave your life behind.
The drums of war are beating loudly. The West may only be supplying financial aid and extorting its people for financial aid—for now. Our politicians have control over our lives and our futures, or lack thereof.
Posted originally on Apr 18, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on April 10 by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis and by 3.5% on the yearly. One must only look at their bills, items in the store, or open their eyes to see that the cost of living in every area has far surpassed this figure. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell released some disparaging comments regarding the data, and we should not expect any rate declines in the near-term. The Fed’s 2% target is simply not possible due to excessive government spending. Inflation was never transitory and we have not had a soft landing. Yet, the Biden Administration insists the “economy is going in the right direction.”
Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has insisted that greedy corporations are to blame for price gouging. He’s repeatedly called on large corporations, more specifically, to pass along their savings on to their customers. We’ve said that. We’ve been very consistent about that. And that includes rip-offs such as shrinkflation,” she insists.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also voices positive sentiments on inflations, citing how inflation is down two-thirds from its peak in June 2022 when it reached 9.1%. Yellen fails to voice that inflation had peaked due to the entire global economy shutting down due to the pandemic that created the most significant supply chain shortage I have witnessed in my lifetime. This is also why we see “strong” jobs reports in contrast to the lockdown that decimated small businesses and caused thousands to lose their ability to provide for their families.
Remember, inflation was only 1.4% when Joe Biden took office – far beneath the Fed’s target. Inflation has risen as a direct result of fiscal policies under Bidenomics.
Joe Biden mistakenly believes he has helped to tame inflation, and the private sector is solely responsible for the high cost of living. “Today’s report shows inflation has fallen more than 60% from its peak, but we have more to do to lower costs for hardworking families. Prices are still too high for housing and groceries, even as prices for key household items like milk and eggs are lower than a year ago,” according to a statement on the White House website.
Yellen and all those in line with the current administration want the public to believe that Russia and a slow-to-recover supply chain crisis caused inflation. “And I also want to remind you what caused inflation. We know that inflation was caused by supply chains that broke down because of the pandemic. Russia’s war in Ukraine — we know that caused oil prices to skyrocket. Our economy was disrupted by so many ways because of the pandemic. That’s what caused inflation,” Yellen stated in March.
Russia’s war in Ukraine would have had minimal effect on America. In fact, America could have profited on the issue by exporting energy and agricultural goods to Europe. The issue is that the US government has been sending blank checks to Ukraine and digging itself deeper into debt. The national debt has never been higher and shows no signs of stopping. The war shows no sign of stopping and Biden has ignored any calls to curtail funding Ukraine. Then, Biden’s largest spending packages have gone to climate change initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which Yellen herself said was intended to combat climate change.
As for the supply chain crisis, primarily energy, those who read this blog understand what happened with Nordstream. Biden’s first act as president was to eliminate the Keystone Pipeline plans and place countless regulations on the energy sector that caused America to become an energy-dependent nation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been used as a political tool to play with gas prices and removed America’s energy safety net.
Jerome Powell stated that the jobs report was unimpressive in comparison to rising inflation. “More recent data shows solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal,” the Fed chief said during a panel discussion this Tuesday. What Powell cannot voice out loud is that government policy has made the Fed’s job impossible. There is absolutely nothing that the central bank can do to curb government spending. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said. The economy is heading in the wrong direction, yet Washington is continually gas lighting the public into believing the economy has recovered. The economy fell with COVID, but the pandemic is no longer the reason that rates are rising.
Are companies price gouging? Some certainly have been. The price of business has also drastically risen in every area. TAXES are through the roof and everyone is forced to raise prices, landlords included, to meet Biden’s tax hikes that are simply unconstitutional. Why are we paying for foreign wars and foreign nationals to live within the US?
It is ridiculous to believe that the private sector is to blame for inflation. Even the Federal Reserve has said that they are at the mercy of the government’s fiscal policy and cannot do anything to prevent excessive, dangerous government spending. Inflation will not go down so long as the government is funding wars, which produce nothing, and thoughtless non-issues such as climate change that are rooted in America Last policies.
Biden is destroying the financial future of generations with his reckless spending in an attempt to buy votes. Fed Chair Powell nearly admitted it in his interview with 60 Minutes in which he urged the government to show restraint when plunging the nation deeper into debt. Biden and the Democrats are cheering that he will “cancel” debt for an additional 277,000 under the SAVE plan. Do people not realize by now that the taxpayer is paying for this debt cancelation?
Biden already “forgave” the debts of 4.3 million borrowers, but the banks have not, and neither have the universities. The liberals believe the Big Guy is magically opening his wallet or waving a magic wand and making the debt disappear. NO – the lenders will receive a repayment, but now WE, the people, must pay for the debts of a few. This would be akin to the president saying that federal funds would be used to forgive personal mortgage loans – people simply cannot afford them at the moment, and it is the socially just thing to do. Forget about the people who chose not to buy a home because it did not fit within their budgets. Perhaps we should forgive all EV car payments, t00, and hey, that money we owe to foreign nations? Well, that will be a discussion for another time since we simply won’t have the money to repay.
Newsflash – the youth do not approve of Joe Biden. They are afraid to fight in a war overseas in which they see no patriotic cause to go. His supporters on the far-left support HAMAS. Not Palestine, but Hamas. A Harvard-Harris poll conducted in October asked, “In general in this conflict, do you side more with Israel or Hamas?” Among Gen Z voters, 48% said they supported the terrorist organization. Those with clarity do not support any war and certainly do not support sending countless aid to Ukraine and Israel.
Tax season caused some of the woke young Americans to question their financial identities, and I reported that one poll found that nearly a quarter of first-time filers actually planned to seek psychological help upon filing taxes. No one explained to them how this sinister system actually works.
We do not live in a Democracy. We did not vote on whether we wanted to spend over $7 billion to dismiss the financial obligations of others. Furthermore, this is a clear and deliberate attempt to BUY VOTES ahead of the election. Biden is simply polling so low that he is desperate to do anything to garner support, be it ushering in a new population of migrants or gaslighting the public into believing they are better off today.
WE the people have spent $153,000,0000,000 on buying votes through student loan bailouts. On June 30, 2023, the Supreme Court declared Biden’s forgiveness programs unconstitutional. The Biden regime has never followed the Constitution and has actively sought ways to dismiss the very documents this nation was founded on. “I believe the Court’s decision to strike down my student debt relief program was a mistake, was wrong. So, we need to find a new way and we’re moving as fast as we can,” Biden was scripted to say after the ruling. Is there an amendment that this man has not dismissed?
The national debt crisis should scare you. Biden-Harris and the neocons are borrowing against future generations of Americans. The government believes it can shake down the citizens for additional taxes, but even if they confiscated all of our assets, it would not be enough to cover their continual spending.
Again, I want to state the importance of Jerome Powell’s words. It is unusual for the central bank to break with the government for any reason.
“In the long run, the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path. The US federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path and that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy,” Powell finally warned, later adding, “effectively, we are borrowing from future generations.” He warned that we must begin to prioritize fiscal policy immediately to fix this unending crisis.
Forget rate cuts. Forget a balanced budget or even seeing anything remotely in the green. Not only are we funding 2.5 wars and millions of unemployed migrants, but we are also funding the climate change hysteria that demands we implode our economy. The Inflational Reduction Act was merely the beginning. These spending packages are the greatest threat to our nation’s economy as we simply CANNOT REPAY OUR DEBT. Worse — we have turned our main buyers into enemies and will soon be left holding the bag as no one will come to rescue America.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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