Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain before you understand the real trend. It is true that Federal Reserve officials are committed to fighting inflation and expect higher interest rates to remain in place until more progress is made, according to minutes released from the central bank’s December meeting. Also what has been reported is that at that meeting, policymakers expressed the importance of keeping the restrictive policy in place while inflation holds unacceptably high.
Now let’s look behind the curtail for just a peek. War ALWAYS impacts interest rates and they traditionally rise in periods of such conflict. After Europe kept rates NEGATIVE from 2014, that means every bond they sold for 8 years is now losing money. This was the bond crisis in London and then you had Janet Yellen come out and revealed the real silent worry.
Yellen came out and proposed that the Treasury buy in long-term debt and swap it for short-term. Some were out there claiming the Treasury was competing with the Fed as a second central bank. That just illustrated how much they do not understand what is going on or even how the monetary system works. The proposal was NOT another QE. The Treasury cannot create money as can the Fed. She was talking about a SWAP because the long-term debt is in crisis mode with the coming war. Smart players want to swap long-term for the short-term.
China has been dumping bonds since late 2021 as Biden has been claiming the US will defend Taiwan. I can confirm that under EVERY possible military play, the US will lose. I have reported this before. The US cannot defeat China – PERIOD! With China now selling off US debt and shifting to gold, they are seeking to insulate themselves from any Western currency since Biden violated every international law to impose sanctions on Russia. China elected Xi Jinping because Pelosi when to Taiwan just before the election confirming that we are headed to war.
Against this backdrop, the Fed CANNOT lower interest rates. This is NOT 100% about inflation anymore. The Fed realizes that the Biden Administration is determined to create World War III. As we are heading into a war they must adopt a war posture as well. Hence, interest rates will remain firm because not just inflation driven by shortages, but by the fact that the long-term liquidation continues, and lowering interest rates would now cause a capital crisis when staring war in the eyes.
The goldbugs are cheering that there has been a central bank buying of gold. They think somehow that this is because they are bullish on gold. What seems to be going over their heads is what I warned before – when China starts to sell US debt, war is coming. I have made it very clear that the precursor to war is always capital flows. That will be on steroids this year.
My clients taught me how capital and war move. At conferences, I stated that we were advising the Universal Bank of Lebanon. They found a ledger in the basement where someone wrote down the price of the Lebanese pound every day into the 19th century. They asked if we could build a model. I said sure! Here is a chart from back then. Our model warned that their currency would drop dramatically in 8 days. I thought there was something wrong with the data. Needless to say, I formed the client what the computer said and I commented that something had to be wrong. Very calmly, they asked what currency would be best. I said the Swiss franc. 8 days later the civil war began. The computer was correct. Then the same thing happened with the Iraq-Iran war.
By 1998, I understood the model’s ability to forecast war. I have never created a model to do that. It figured it out all on its lonesome. I stood up in June 1998 in our London WEC and warned that Russia would collapse in about 30 days. The London Financial Times reported that forecast and that became the collapse of the Russian debt market and Long-Term Capital Management debacle.
I have warned that if China was preparing to invade Taiwan, then they would start to sell off all US government debt. They would not risk owning US government bonds and watch Biden freeze it all and then claim it will be used to rebuild Taiwan as they are doing to Russia. So China began selling off US debt at the end of 2021. They have been buying gold because they cannot hold US or EU debt in time of war. It is as simple as that. The gold is simply neutrality, for it also does not pay interest. – So much for the inflation nonsense.
During the reign of King George III (1760–1820) the first issue of halfpennies actually was not issued until 10 years after his accession to the throne in 1770. Consequently, the vast number of halfpennies in circulation were actually all counterfeits. Indeed, counterfeiting became rampant at first because there was a coin shortage. In 1771, it was declared that counterfeiting copper coins were to be a serious crime. Nevertheless, this really made no difference. Over the course of the next twenty years, the majority of copper coins in circulation were forgeries. Even in the American Colonies, a favorite pastime was to counterfeit British halfpennies.
Coppers of this type are thought to have been minted from mid-1787 through 1788 and probably into 1789. Interestingly, it appears Thomas Machin first produced halfpence dated to the contemporary year as well as examples backdated to 1778. As the mints in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Vermont failed, their equipment ended up at Machin’s Mills. Along with imitation British halfpence, Machin’s Mills also produced illegal Connecticut coppers and some legal Vermont Coppers, with most of their Vermont coins being struck over counterfeit Irish halfpence. The illegal coining operation continued at Machin’s Mills until around early 1790, which was longer than any of the legal mints in New England.
“There is a vast sum in Circulation here of base Copper: to the amount of Several hundreds of thousands of Pounds. very lately these half Pence are refused every where: I suppose in Consequence of some Concerted Scheme. and it is supposed that they will be all purchased for a trifle and Sent to the United States where they will pass for good metal, and consequently our Simple Country men be cheated of an immense sum.2 The Board of Treasury, may be ordered with out the avowed Interposition of Congress, to give the alarm to our Citizens. and the seperate States would do well to prohibit this false Money from being paid or received.3
There was religious tension in Britain that still lingers to this day against Catholics. The Gordon Riots of 1780 took place over several days instigated by the anti-Catholic sentiment that again erupted with the passage of the Papists Act of 1778. That was an attempt to reduce official discrimination against British Catholics with the first legislation of the Popery Act of 1698. At the time, Lord George Gordon was the head of the Protestant Association. He argued that the law would enable Catholics to join the British Army and once in they would then use the army to plot treason. The protest became the excuse to burn people’s possessions, engaged in widespread rioting and looting, and they even used the opportunity to attack both Newgate Prison and the Bank of England. This was by far the most destructive riot in the history of London.
From the mid-1600s, the world money supply was increased largely with copper coins. Russia, in particular, began to overvalue the copper coins. Money is always fiat for its value is typically dictated by the government. Overvaluing copper as in the 17th and 18th centuries, led to the same trend of overvaluing silver during the 19th century. The result of this monetary manipulation by the Russian government led to what became known as the Copper Riots of 1662.
The Russian government began producing copper coins and monetizing them to be of equal value to silver Kopek currency with an average weight of about half of a gram to meet expenses during the mini-Ice Age. The effort failed and silver vanished from circulation as people began hoarding them causing the entire economy to collapse. The copper money was naturally devalued in purchasing power and then there were widespread counterfeiting operations since the official value of the copper coinage became far in excess of the cost of production. The economy collapsed into a deflationary black hole as businesses shut down and unemployment rose dramatically. This erupted into what has become known as the Copper Riots of 1662.
The German bankers, the Fuggers, emerged as the leading Augsburg merchant-banker, who then provided loans to local rulers secured with the silver produce of their mines. The discovery of vast silver mines eventually led to the development in 1525 of the one-ounce silver coin that was the thaler from which we derive the name “dollar” as the alternative to the British pound after the American Revolution. The Joachimsthaler of the Kingdom of Bohemia was therefore the first thaler ideally with a weight of 31 grams or one troy ounce.
As the silver mines were declining, the decline in the supply of silver led to the rise of copper coinage during the next century. This was not an isolated incident confined to Russia. There was a shortage of precious metals going into 1662. It was most profound in Russia. Nevertheless, the price of gold rose sharply from the low of 1655 in a 7-year bull market. This also reflected the deflationary atmosphere that was emerging thanks also to the mini-Ice Age which was peaking during the 17th century yet would last well into the mid-19th century.
It was Spain’s silver mine known as the great red Cerro Rico or ‘Rich Hill’ that towered over the city of Potosí in Bolivia. It had been mined since 1545 by drafted armies of natives. The great silver boom of c1575-1635 was when Potosí alone produced nearly half the world’s silver. But the mine’s yield was starting to decline. By 1678, native workers became scarce and the output of the mines began to dwindle. This was the royal mint that produced vast amounts of ‘pieces of eight’, which became the precursor of the American dollar. The shortage of labor ended up being augmented by purchasing African slaves from the Dutch who were buying them under the pretense that they were the spoils of war, which had been the justification for slaves from ancient times.
As the quantity of new silver in the world monetary system was declining, we begin to see the rise of copper coinage make its first appearance under James I of England (1603-1625). Due to a shortage of small coins, James I authorized John Harrington to issue tin-coated bronze farthings in 1613, and three main types were minted – the last being a slightly larger copper farthing without the tin coating. The first halfpenny was introduced in 1672 by Charles II (1660-1685). Charles II issued some copper halfpennies and farthings in 1672 for a single year but issued farthings again in 1873. The next issue of a farthing was struck in a tin but during 1684 and 1685.
However, in 1694 the Bank of England was established to raise money for King William III’s war against France. The Bank started to issue notes in return for deposits. Therefore, the money supply for the first time began to include paper currency. By 1695 the first fraud took place. The authorities prosecuted Daniel Perrismore for forging sixty £100 notes. This incident caused the Bank of England to introduce a watermark in the paper to prevent such fraud. This was further enhanced by making counterfeiting subjected to the death penalty as a felony resulting in the confiscation of all your wealth and throwing your family out of the street as well. Pictured here, is a protest imitation note. The law was being prosecuted on the mere possession of a forged note. The complaint here was that these one-pound notes were easily forged and innocent people were duped, thereby committing a felony by mere possession. They were being hanged with no proof that they created the forgery – merely that they possessed one. This was creating an incentive not to even accept the notes in transactions.
George I, II, and III all issued copper halfpennies. George III’s halfpennies were dated 1770 to 1772. The economic hard times no doubt contributed to the riots of 1780. After those events, at Newgate Prison in March 1782 a female alleged counterfeiter of halfpennies was hanged. She was then fixed to a stake and burned before the debtor’s door at Newgate prison in London as a further example of not to counterfeit.
In a letter to Lord Hawkesbury on April 14th, 1789, Matthew Boulton, who is considered the Grandfather of modern coinage, commented
“In the course of my journeys, I observe that I receive upon average two-thirds counterfeit halfpence for change at toll-gates, etc., and I believe the evil is daily increasing, as the spurious money is carried into circulation by the lowest class of manufacturers, who pay with it the principal part of the wages of the poor people they employ”.
Boulton’s contract in 1797 to produce the Cartwheel pennies and twopences, thwarting the counterfeiters, did not extend to producing the halfpenny, though Boulton had expected that it would, and had prepared patterns of the appropriate size and weight in accordance with his ideas on the intrinsic value of copper coins. The reason the government gave for the omission of the denomination from the contract was that a large number of de facto halfpennies (including tokens and fakes) would be driven out of circulation and Boulton would be unable to produce enough coins to meet the demand that would ensue.
To avoid being hung for counterfeiting and burned at the stake, there was a multitude of halfpenny tokens. Many were of a political nature as this one complaining about the cost of bread. The government yielded to the private halfpenny tokens which became the majority of the small change. The overall public demand for legal halfpennies soon forced the government to change its mind, and in 1798 a contract was issued to Boulton for him to produce halfpennies and farthings dated 1799.
Interestingly, it was also at this time when inflation sent the price of copper rising, and consequently, the weight of the coins was reduced slightly, which resulted in them not being as popular as expected. In 1806 a further 427.5 tons of copper was struck into halfpennies by Boulton, but the price of copper had risen again and the weight was even less than the 1799 issue. This time, however, there was no unfavorable reaction from the public, so perhaps the national obsession with “intrinsic value” had run its course.
This was a very curious period where private money dominated the money supply for halfpennies. There are other periods where this has emerged in history primarily due to the shortage of real official money. One of the earliest such periods was during the reign of the Roman Emperor Tiberius (14-37AD).
Tiberius was legendary to be a frugal emperor. His deliberate contraction in creating new money led to the Financial Panic of 33AD. As far as Quantitative Easing, that too was nothing new. Tiberius offered loans INTEREST-FREE, but they had a limitation of three years. This was to prevent people from being forced to sell their estates further depressing land values.
There was a major earthquake in Asia, modern Turkey, and this was so devastating, he issued coins stating they were for the relief of Asia. He also waived all taxes in the region for 5 years – something our modern-day politicians would never dream of.
The lesson from history reveals that at times there emerges the acceptance of private money. During the 1870s, we also see private tokens circulating as money in the United States. Collectors call them the Hard Times Tokens. The very same thing took place during the American Civil War.
During the Great Depression, the shortage of money led to more than 200 cities issuing their own paper currency. As long as everyone in town accepted it, these Depressions Scrips enable people to work and to be paid locally when there was simply not enough federal money to go around.
During the Hyperinflation in Germany of the 1920s, there again we see private currency being printed known as NOTGELD. Therefore, in the end, when the confidence in government declines, society is compelled to return to a barter-based society and that is when we begin to see private forms of money take hold.
Our inflation models came in at 32% for 2022. This does not include things like paper clips to bring down the entire average. This number is the basic core inflation that consists of food, energy, and transportation. We do not include housing values which rose about 11% in 2022, but because that is the national average, it understands places such as Texas and Flordia and over states California and areas such as Chicago.
Our index attempts to reflect the national core inflation of things that most people use. The largest increase was obvious fuel between gasoline and diesel used in trucking and homes averaging 65%+, eggs were up nearly 50%, flour rose by 25%, cooking oil 23%, Butter was up 35%, Chicken by 14%, and Rice by 18%.
The more things you throw in, the lower the inflation rate. The national average rise in rental rates was 7.8%, in Florida it was 8.5%, and in NYC 1.5% when controlled.
If we broaden the list to include rents and coffee, which was up 15%, we can bring it down to about 27%. The Fed broaden the scope so widely that the rate come down to about 7%. The more you include, the lower the inflation rate. The object is to reduce government spending which is indexed to the CPI.
For those who have asked for the original 1995/1996 Tax Proposal that was on Capitol Hill in a single file, here it is. For those who just want the sections in a more manageable manner, click on this like here.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 1, 2023 | Sundance
The New Year brings a look of forward-looking economic perspectives from major financial institutions. Unfortunately, if the perspective of Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen is reflective of the larger institutional analysis, the financial pretending is anticipated to continue.
[Side Note: Notice how they will all start talking about ‘deglobalization’ in 2023. There’s a reason for that that I will touch on in the IMF interview to follow]
Appearing on Face the Nation Gapen accurately indicates the U.S. housing market is already in a steep economic recession, housing prices falling rapidly with a considerable amount of distance to go (-30% range), and the overall housing market will likely be in this situation for around two years. On a macro level the Bank of America indicators line up with the general housing trajectory. From a lending standpoint, Gapen would have specific insight.
Beyond the housing sector, Mr. Gapen starts to get sketchy. He anticipates inflation taking 24 to 36 months to lower to the norm 2% range. That is generally in line with CTH expectations; however, nowhere in the analysis does Gapen even mention energy costs and the overall impact to the economy from energy policy. You will note this absence will be present in almost all financial punditries. Mentioning “energy policy’ as a cause of economic pain is a third rail amid his peer group; it is simply not permitted.
Astute readers will note the great financial and economic pretending that surrounds the Build Back Better and Green New Deal climate change agenda will not be discussed by anyone, ever. The massive price impacts, the supply side inflation pressures, are baked into the western global economic outlooks. It is strictly verboten to talk about climate change policy being stopped, modified, reversed or even, well, gasp, removed. WATCH:
[TRANSCRIPT] – […] BANK OF AMERICA CHIEF ECONOMIST MICHAEL GAPEN: Happy New Year as well. Thank you for having me on.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You know, a majority of voters polled by The Wall Street Journal say that the economy is going to look and feel worse in 2023. What is your forecast?
GAPEN: So I think that’s probably true. I think we’re in a situation where the risk of recession is high, may not be a deep and prolonged one. But we’re in a situation where the economy has recovered very rapidly from- from COVID, and it’s come with a lot of inflation. And the Federal Reserve is trying to slow down the economy, to bring inflation down. And in the past, more often than not, that’s coincided with some sort of recession in the US economy and the U.S. labor market. It’s not baked in. It’s not for certain. We may be able to avoid it, but I would agree that the outlook by most people who sit in the position that I do think 2023 could be a difficult year for the U.S..
MARGARET BRENNAN: So we may be able to avoid recession?
Everything he says I have confirmed from other sources. French soldiers who volunteered said the same thing, Ukrainians kill Russian prisoners sometimes ruthlessly. It is a total disgrace that we are supporting these Neonazis – the very people still practicing ethnic cleansing.
Posted originally on the CTH onDecember 27, 2022 | Sundance
Cobalt is a mined mineral needed for all rechargeable batteries including phones, pads, laptops and Electric Vehicles (EV’s). According to Siddharth Kara, an author and expert on modern-day slavery, human trafficking and child labor, approximately 72% of all the cobalt mined globally comes from the Congo.
Within his new book “Cobalt Red: How the Blood of the Congo Powers Our Lives,” Kara outlines how slave labor and child labor work these cobalt mines. Kara appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast {Direct Rumble Link to segment} to discuss his research and findings after visiting these Congolese mines. Contrasting the “Green Movement” claims that their efforts are to “save the planet” by switching everyone to EV’s, the issues Kara outlines are remarkable. WATCH:
After his bombshell testimony, Rich Baris joins to break down exactly what he told the court in the Kari Lake lawsuit against Maricopa County. Pedro Gonzalez from Chronicles Magazine and the “Contra” Substack joins to break down the Senate Republicans latest and unforgivable betrayal. Send your questions to Freedom@CharlieKirk.com for an hour 2 Ask Charlie Anything. The Charlie Kirk Show is LIVE on Salem Radio stations across the country and simulcasting on Real America’s Voice.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America