Category Central Planning

Aug 6 2022

A Cycle Has Changed Inside Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Aug 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

To my total shock, I know a family that fled Poland to flee from Russia and went to Canada. They then fled Canada because of all the insanity of Trudeau and refused to return. Since their visa for America is expiring, they said to me that they may now go to Russia. I was completely stunned. They said Western culture is pushing them to return from pronouns to canceling anyone who has ever said anything, even 25 years ago, and the total craziness in politics. What they once fled from is still far better than what is taking place here.

Every person I know here in America who fled from Russia when the USSR collapsed says the same thing. What they fled from is now here. Putin has come out and warned that wokeness is what destroyed Russia. His popularity in Russia is double that of Biden because he has turned Russia back to traditional values. Using the wrong pronoun is now offensive. I remember going to the Latin Casino in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, and seeing Don Rickels live in the ’70s. There was not a single race or ethnic group he did not make a joke about. There was a time when we once could laugh at ourselves. Those days are gone.

There is a cycle to everything. The culture shift in Russia is actually hopeful that we too will shed these restrictions of wokeness, and I will not be offended if you say, “Hey, you!” Civilization is when everyone comes together for mutual benefit. Wokeness is all about division. When you ask an American what are you, they will typically respond half-German and half-Irish or whatever their mix. That illustrates that America was the melting pot where everyone merged into one, whereas you do not see that in Europe except on rare occasions. This is what is being torn apart by wokeness, and we will see oppression and civil unrest that could lead even to civil war because of it.

When I was growing up there was just straight, gay, and bi-sexual. Today, I am told there are 70 distinctions. I have absolutely no idea anymore but it no longer makes one look upon everyone as equal. You suddenly have to stay to yourself and be afraid to address someone for being accused of racism or sexism or whatever new term they manufacture. We once were all Americans. I hired Robert Howe who was probably the first black analyst because he was qualified. Today, you get inquires from the state demanding to know how many minorities and women you have on your staff. We have every race and gender on our staff, as well as religion. Perhaps I am old fashion, but I never hire people because of quotas.

It’s not a question of patriotism, and it is not wrong for that family to suddenly say they are moving back to Russia all because of the political propaganda. The traditional values that once kept American culture as the beacon of light in a dark world have been overthrown. The public forum, where the people once discussed differences and enacted their laws as well as elected their representatives, has been enclosed by fences at times to protect it from the people, and the chamber that shined for the world as an example of freedom has been reduced to one of hatred and has been exploited by foreign agendas seeing a Great Reset. The public and private institutions that were founded for eternity lie naked and broken by partisan politics indistinguishable from the ruins of ancient Greece. Those stupendous relics of the past are all that has survived the injuries of time and the folly of men.

Today is a sad statement of our times. Our leaders not only preach war, but they also seek to divide our nation by turning brother against brother until our civilization exists no more. The Democrats have exploited every distinction to separate and divide us while seeking 5 years imprisonment for those who only entered the capitol and took a selfie all to paint their opposition with hatred.

The possession of wealth today only stimulates the hatred of others and any traditional rigid virtue of centuries now offends and warrants censure. The irregularities of voting are swept aside and those who seek to investigate are targeted as conspiracy theorists. Anyone who objects is always insured the aversion of those in power who search for any excuse to imprison them until death for their part.

Suspicion has merely become the equivalent of proof and any trial is mere pretense to condemnation. They seek the execution of Donald Trump and paint 50% of the people are worthless scum unworthy of a seat in their hallow hall of dictatorial wokeness power. Once they have tasted supreme power, they have become incapable of pity or remorse no less respect for human rights of liberty, and justice for all. Those words have become just propaganda as their meaning has crumbled to dust on the foundation that was once the bedrock of the American dream. Our highest standard of living has been pushed aside as racist or some other terminology crafted with an endless redefinition of the English language.

As I have been stating at conferences, Schwab will fail in his quest to seize control of the world with his unoriginal theories. The very cornerstone of civilization of bringing people together because it is mutually beneficial to all has been broken. The temple of freedom and dignity has fallen. These power-hungry people are separating and dividing us as they turn even families against one another. They vary from the above but can see no differently than Karl Marx who thought he could redesign society. The rise and fall of political states, Schwab believes, can be prevented if the people surrender everything that makes life worthwhile. Schwab and his co-conspiractor at the World Economic Forum seek to turn our corporations into fascist limbs of the state all preaching Schwab’s stakeholder economics and suppressing human rights for at the heart of all of this, there is no divine right because there is nothing divine about them. The future is only theirs to shape – no one else’s.

The world so many rebuilt post-WWII is collapsing — deliberately. It must always appear darkest before a storm and the new light of day that will arrive. We cannot save the institutions of today. We must plan for what comes after this house-cleaning we must go through. Academics such as Klaus Schwab have always presented the greatest threat to societies. Just as Putin said Lenin was just a Bolshevik and not a statesman, someone in the future will remember Klaus Schwab with the same dismissive comments. Posterity will remember his name as it remembers Marx, Hitler, and Stalin. Napoleon sought to conquer Europe, but he had no designs to change human nature.

Aug 6 2022

Sneaky Mitch Strikes Again


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 6, 2022

Most casual political observers have absolutely no idea how McConnell works.  However, for over a decade CTH has been trying –mostly failing– to awaken the base of common-sense voters.  In 2010, 2011 and 2012 the #1 priority for McConnell was to destroy the threat represented by the Tea Party.  In 2022 we are seeing an exact replay of the same intents and purposes, only this time the target is President Trump’s MAGA movement.

During a recent interview on Fox News, Mitch McConnell was asked about the future perspectives of the Senate against the backdrop of the midterm election.  Mitch McConnell’s team literally scrubbed his response from their own segment of this interview [SEE HERE]. This is a familiar tactic from the DeceptiCon group who always cover their tracks. However, the segment lasts on the internet [06:45 prompted] WATCH:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=qAJgD3FZ-js%3Fstart%3D405%26feature%3Doembed

Mitch McConnell essentially says the Senate is too close to call and the democrats may be “up slightly” because the wrong kind of republican candidates have been nominated in the GOP primary process in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Arizona.  Once again, the elitist UniParty view of DC Mitch McConnell shines through.

Keep in mind this is the same Mitch McConnell who was challenged by the audience during a 2017 Rotary Club meeting in Kentucky, about why he refused to support the election priorities of President Trump.  McConnell responded, “I’d ask for a show of hands, but I know everybody’s saying, ‘been there, haven’t done anything,’ which I find extremely irritating — and I’m going to tell you why.”

McConnell continued, “a Congress goes on for two years. Part of the reason I think that the storyline is that we haven’t done much is because, in part, the president and others have set these early timelines about things need to be done by a certain point,” he said.  Then came the kicker, “our new president, of course, has not been in this line of work before, and I think had excessive expectations about how quickly things happen in the Democratic process.”

Ah, the customs, traditions and parliamentary norms of the Senate were to blame for republican intransigence on the Trump agenda.  President Trump held “excessive expectations” as to what could be done to support the America-First agenda in the senate.

According to Mitch McConnell, it was Trump’s fault for thinking a republican majority Senate would work to support the American middle-class.

Comments like that reveal for most what the true motive of Senator McConnell is all about.  It is a motive and agenda all wrapped up in the senate power structure.

McConnell does not fear being in the minority; the color of the flag atop the spire of the UniParty senate does not matter to those underneath it.  McConnell maneuvers with just as much power in the minority as he does in the majority.

In fact, McConnell makes more money selling his DeceptiCon caucus votes to Chuck Schumer (on behalf of Wall Street) than he does in the majority where he is forced to purchase them.

Indeed, the entire scheme is a rigged game, as Christopher Bedford realized last year and wrote in The Federalist [SEE HERE] after Mitch McConnell delivered his post-election impeachment floor speech.  A ploy to destroy the MAGA movement with Trump removed:

THE FEDERALIST – […] “So what’s all behind this? After four years of yelling “MAGA!” while pushing his own classic, corporate Republican policies, McConnell had hoped to rid himself and his conference of the conservative populist nationalism the former president had championed and go back to the way things were.

He wants a return to promising to tackle illegal immigration before winking at corporate America that nothing will change. He wants to raise money on fighting the abortion of our infants while comfortably lifting nary a finger. He wants to shrug and change the subject when asked about men dominating women’s sports and using women’s bathrooms. He wants fewer taxes and more wars. Hell, he wants someone to blame for the Republican losses in the Georgia special election, and with them the loss of his seat at the head of the Senate.

Instead, his push to impeach ended with rebuke from his own conference. Angry and embarrassed, he blamed his own colleagues as well as the former president, performing a 20-minute attack ad for the left to use on Republicans for the next election cycle and beyond.” (read more)

Through his power structure, McConnell directly controls about 8 to 15 republican senators; we have called them “The Decepticons” for years. [Cornyn, Thune, Porter, Blunt, Portman, Burr, Barasso, Crapo, Murkowski, Gardner, Roberts, Sasse, Tillis, Rubio, Graham, Romney, and now, Tim Scott]

McConnell has a well-used playbook he deploys to retain power at all costs and select candidates that will be indebted to his Senate schemes. The 2022 senate candidates have been up against the same Mitch McConnell club machine that readers here are very familiar with.

To remind ourselves how Minority and Majority Senator McConnell took down the threat of the Tea Party revisit these old articles:  CNN Part I and CNN Part II  both showcase how McConnell works.   Then do some research on how McConnell worked with Haley Barbour in Mississippi [SEE HERE].

For those who follow the deep weeds of politics, McConnell’s schemes are brutally transparent. For the remaining 97% of the voting electorate, they still don’t understand how the UniParty works. Decepticon leader McConnell doesn’t want the American electorate to see purchased senate republicans voting NO on border security.

McConnell must preserve the trough – Corporations (special interest groups) write the legislation. Lobbyists take the law and go find politician(s) to support it. Politicians get support from their peers using tenure and status etc. Eventually, if things go according to norm, the legislation gets a vote.

Within every step of the process there are expense account lunches, dinners, trips, venue tickets and a host of other customary financial waypoints to generate/leverage a successful outcome. The amount of money spent is proportional to the benefit derived from the legislative outcome.

When a House or Senate member becomes educated on the intent of the legislation, they have attended the sales pitch; and when they find out the likelihood of support for that legislation; they can then position their own (or their families) financial interests to benefit from the consequence of passage. It is a process similar to insider trading on Wall Street, except the trading is based on knowing who will benefit from a legislative passage.

Yes, Democrats are the opponents; they are ideological enemies to freedom and a constitutional republic. However, just as dangerous an enemy is Mitch McConnell; the man who builds and fills the Trojan Horses that are presented to the voters every two years.

Aug 6 2022

McDonalds Dumps Trial of Plant Meat Because Customers Would Not Purchase – Next up, Bug Meat


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 5, 2022 | Sundance

McDonalds has announced they are dropping their program testing plant-based meats because people didn’t like it.

As noted by the Washington Times, “other trials at Panda Express and Yum! Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut) have also ended without a subsequent product launch. Beyond Meat products at Dunkin’, Hardee’s, and A&W have been discontinued after launching.”

Apparently, American consumers do not want to eat fake meat; at least not fake meat made from plants.

Next up….  Bug meat.

…”The menus will feature items such as cricket tacos or a Thai larb salad and recipes that use an innovative cricket meat-alternative which packs about 30 per cent protein – and requires around 1800x less Greenhouse gas to produce than beef.”  (LINK)

Aug 6 2022

Labor Report, 528,000 Jobs Gained in July, Large Gains in Restaurants and Services, Unemployment Rate 3.5%


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 5, 2022 | Sundance 

A few days ago, we were discussing the disconnect within the economy as it relates to corporate valuations.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics report today [DATA HERE] highlights another economic disconnect, this time with labor.  According to the BLS survey 528,000 jobs were added to the economy in July, the unemployment rate drops to 3.5%.

The household data [Table A] shows the number of eligible workers unemployed dropped 242,000; however, the number of eligible workers no longer in the workforce increased by 239,000.  The total labor force is shrinking as unemployment drops.

Keep in mind the previous BLS survey of job openings (JOLTS report) showed available jobs dropped 605,000 in July.  “On the last business day of June, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.7 million (-605,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively. The largest decreases in job openings were in retail trade (-343,000), wholesale trade (-82,000), and in state and local government education (-62,000).” [JOLTS survey]

Going back to today’s release, 303,000 part-time jobs were added in July; these are workers working part-time for economic reasons.  The Household Data shows that within the leisure and hospitality sector [Table B-1] restaurants and bars added 74,000 jobs.

If we combine both BLS surveys two days apart is: 605,000 job openings cancelled, and 528,000 new jobs gained.

Of the 528,000 new jobs gained, 303,000 were part time jobs with the largest growth in the jobs in restaurants and bars.

Again, blending data from both reports and focusing on retail.  The retail sector cancelled 343,000 job openings in July, and the retail sector added 21,600 jobs in July.  Within the retail sector (table B-1), jobs at automotive dealers, furniture stores and clothing/apparel stores dropped by a combined 7,200 jobs.

BIG PICTURE:  ♦Energy prices are squeezing consumers and paychecks. ♦Energy driven inflation is high.  ♦Rising housing costs, food costs, gasoline costs and energy costs have hit the consumer hard.  ♦Credit card balances have jumped (highest increase since ’02).  ♦Consumer sales on non-essential items have dropped.  ♦Factory activity around the world (Asia and Eurozone) is slowing or has stopped.  ♦Durable goods inventories have climbed everywhere.  ♦Shippers of durable goods are not shipping. ♦Employment in auto sales, furniture and clothing have all declined.  All of these datapoints align.

Everything in that “big picture” is fact based on current data, and it all makes sense.  However, there is still a disconnect in the big picture.

How does an economy add over 4 million jobs this year, while simultaneously shrinking?

The value of those jobs has to diminish in proportion to the economic contraction.  The disconnect only reconciles if the wages which lead to eventual spending.  With wage growth at 5.2% and the cost of everything up 9.1% (inflation), the difference between the two is how the economy shrinks even with more jobs added.

Think of all the activity (buying stuff, eating out, ordering food etc) as units. All of the unit activity costs more money, but the earnings of the workers is only keeping pace with half of the increase in price.  Therefore, less units are being engaged made, sold and purchased.

The GDP, which measures the value of everything created in the economy (minus imports) dropped 1.6% in the first quarter and 0.9% in the second.  The unit economy is contracting.

As I have said before, “an intentionally managed decline of western economic activity should have a direct impact on the private corporations within those economies.  If the politicians are collectively going to stop energy development, raise energy prices (inflation), then use monetary policy to shrink the economy down to the level of energy available, we would normally think corporations were going to make less money.”

However, in our current scenario, as long as price increases (energy inflation) can be passed along and wage gains can remain low, the profitability remains strong.  Here’s the worst part of this dynamic.  The people investing in the profit get richer, the workers creating the profit get poorer.

Our Joe Biden economy, and the economy of the western nations that are following this same climate change agenda, is getting smaller.  Within the smaller economy, the rich are getting richer and the workers within the Joe Biden economy are getting poorer.

Aug 5 2022

Waking Up From a Coma in 2022


Awaken With JP Published originally on Rumble on July 30, 2022

Imagine you woke up from a 19 year coma and it’s the year 2022…

Aug 5 2022

Tucker Carlson Interviews Ron DeSantis After the Florida Governor Suspends Activist Prosecutor


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 4, 2022 | Sundance

August 4, 2022 | Sundance | 112 Comments

Tucker Carlson used his opening monologue tonight to discuss George Soros and the efforts of the Soros foundation to fund activist state prosecutors who will not enforce laws. The Soros agenda is an end-run around the U.S. constitution that empowers We The People to enact laws and rules of society through legislative representation.

By selecting prosecutors who will not enforce laws against criminal behavior, the Soros initiative subverts the voice of the people.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the first governor to use his state constitutional authority to remove an activist prosecutor.  Tucker Carlson interviewed him immediately after the monologue. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:

The monologue that preceded the interview is below.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=3wg7CYDPKbo%3Ffeature%3Doembed

.

Aug 4 2022

Fertilizer Bans Lead to Food Scarcity


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Aug 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Canada’s Trudeau is proposing to reduce fertilizer with the globalist goal of achieving zero emissions by 2030. Every indicator says that food scarcity is on the rise, and yet politicians are continually making it harder to farm. Trudeau’s plan entails a 30% reduction in fertilizer and is a direct threat to the food supply.

Fertilizer Canada believes this plan will begin hurting agriculture as soon as 2023. The agency believes that Canada may lose over 160 million metric tons of spring wheat, canola, and corn between 2023-2030 alone. Alberta Minister of Agriculture Nate Horner stated that the world is looking at Canada to increase food production amid scarcity and that the government is doing much more harm than good with this ban. “The world is looking for Canada to increase production and be a solution to global food shortages. The Federal government needs to display that they understand this. They owe it to our producers,” he stated.

Who else placed bans on fertilizer, and how did it go? Let’s look at Sri Lanka, which is currently in ruins. Disgraced former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa promised to transition to “organic” farming. In April 2022, the government banned synthetic fertilizers and pesticides and forced two million farmers to switch to organic farming. The plan failed and the downturn was swift. Rice production fell 20% in six months and continued to fall until the nation began importing rice for the first time in recent history.

The Rajapaksa Administration knew it was in serious trouble by 2021 and tried to offer farmers incentives for losses incurred. Now, over 86% of the population of Sri Lanka is food insecure. Countries looking to ban or reduce fertilizer must realize that the outcome will lead to less food. Should we let people starve to “save” the environment?

Aug 4 2022

The Inequality of the World Economy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Aug 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have followed your comments on the future of inflation for the last five years at least since a friend attended your conference. I must say you have alone singlehandedly defeated every economic theory I have studied.

Since the start of this pandemic in 2020, most prominent neoliberal economic voices warned of the danger that the spending would create inflation. The U.S. spent more as a share of GDP than any major economy on this planet. There was a mix of direct payments to citizens, forgivable loans to small businesses, and then new pandemic-related federal spending. Yet the data showed inflation in the United Kingdom has hit nearly 10% and European inflation rates were higher. Every G7 nation had higher rates of inflation than the United States. This called into question that there was a possible disconnect between the rationale behind tightening U.S. monetary policy and the actual causes of ongoing inflation rises.

Your favorite economist, Larry Summers, from nearly the beginning of that fiscal response, warned this would trigger inflation. At first, he seemed correct. However, by the start of 2022, U.S. inflation did outpace the average for OECD nations. Yet here in 2022, inflation externally to the U.S. is now surpassing all U.S. levels, and the forecasts of the neoliberal economic thought are in open to doubt as to their outcome.

Your argument against the Quantity Theory of Money appears to be vindicated. Since the U.S. had printed much more money than other economies, then how was it possible that the U.S. would have the lowest inflation rates? The discussion in some circles has tried to explain that at first, the U.S. stimulus remained has been overshadowed by non-monetary factors such as shortages. That has been your expectation years in advance.

Now even wages have risen dramatically ever since the end of unemployment benefits to adjust for the rise in inflation. Yet employment has still not recovered for prime-age workers compared to 2019 levels.

I understand you are not interested in teaching at a university. Perhaps it is time for you to write a textbook to provide a better view of the complexity of the world economy. We are obviously in new territory.

Would you care to explain how inflation is significantly higher outside the United States despite the fact that the U.S. expanded its money supply greater than any other nation?

SK

ANSWER: I know this is a very complex question that most people, no fewer politicians, want to think about. Aside from COVID and the supply chain, Biden & the Green’s attack to end fossil fuels is just totally insane. The US was self-sufficient under Trump. Biden has done everything to undermine that and they have no idea what they are doing. They are making the US economy vulnerable. However, outside the USA, nations are NOT self-sufficient, and the further you move down the rank, the greater it is that their population is living hand to mouth.

Europe has no energy. This push by the Greens in Germany and Austria is just completely insane. Remove Putin in Russia, and you will get a hardline replacement who will see that this is the moment to take Europe, and Europe tried to invade Russia twice before. Cutting off the energy and the Greens have made Europe vulnerable, which the Neocons and NATO salivate over finally getting to use their toys.

Gasoline in Europe sells by the litre. One gallon = 3.7 liters. Since gasoline in Europe is about €2.07 Euros, now €7.82, which is now about $8.21 up to $10 a gallon compared to the US national average of $4.642.

The dramatically higher cost of energy in Europe is driving inflation substantially higher in Europe because it also filters over into the cost of transporting everything, right down to food. The inherent problem we always have is that we tend to judge everyone else by ourselves. The world is really different outside the United States. In Japan, the price of gasoline per gallon works out to ¥646.548. Japan, instead of taxing gasoline, the government subsidizes it by about ¥100 per gallon. Thus, the consumer pays about the same as an American.

The higher the fuel cost, the higher the inflation, at least until the Greens force everyone to ride bicycles, stop heating their homes in winter, and truckers revert back to horse and wagons.

While we have Klaus Schwab claiming inequality is a huge problem, and we need to return to his world of equality, he obviously never considered anyone outside of his own circle. The world is vast. Perhaps we should take all his wealth so he can be equal in wealth to a goat herder in Africa. I’m sure that would solve all the problems of the entire world.

Aug 4 2022

When Will the Baby Formula Shortage End?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence Re-Posted Aug 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It has been about a month since Abbott Laboratories reopened its formula plant in Michigan, but the US is still in desperate need of baby formula. The plant ceased operations in February after certain formulas were recalled for containing bacteria after infants became sick. Abbott had a huge 40% stake in the formula market within the US. The production plant was supposed to resume operations in June but this was pushed back a month due to flooding in the area. Certain states saw out-of-stock rates near 60% in July, but the national average currently sits at 30%.

The White House secured 17 Operation Fly Formula missions and imported enough powder to make 61 million bottles. The Defense Production Act was revoked to remove some tariffs, but this was a temporary fix. US consumers need enough formula for 65 million bottles per week. Experts now believe that the shortage will last into the fall months.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) failed to act in a prompt manner. Some of the red tape and regulations are to blame. FDA Commissioner Robert Califf testified in July, displacing blame from the FDA, and saying that they simply did not know. “No law requires manufacturers of these products to notify FDA when they become aware of a circumstance that could lead to a shortage of these products. Without this information, the Agency may have little or no insight as to when a major shortage may occur, preventing us from taking potential mitigation efforts until a crisis becomes apparent,” Califf said. He believed that formula availability to normalize in up to eight weeks.

An investigation shows that the FDA was first notified of formula contamination in December 2021. In fact, 128 complaints were filed between December 2021 and March 2022. The FDA certainly was aware of the contamination before they took action. The White House also took too long to respond as Biden did not invoke the Defense Production Act until May 2022, when 40% of formula was unavailable. This issue should have been solved months ago but persists due to government incompetence.

Aug 4 2022

BMW Warns Investors of Lower Production Forecast, Incoming Factory Orders Declining


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 3, 2022 | sundance 

Whenever we are discussing the intentionally managed decline of the western countries, it is important to remember the closely connected relationship between multinational corporations and the political leaders of those nations.  Specifically, their public-private connections as they run through the World Economic Forum assembly.

An intentionally managed decline of western economic activity should have a direct impact on the private corporations within those economies.  If the politicians are collectively going to stop energy development, raise energy prices (inflation), then use monetary policy to shrink the economy down to the level of energy available, we would normally think corporations were going to make less money.

That preceding paragraph is not controversial.  It simply explains exactly what is happening; that is the situation.  However, for some weird reason the system that evaluates corporate wealth is not responding negatively to the reality of the situation.

Traditionally, we would think destroying the economy would be against the interests of the multinational corporations who benefit from economic expansion.  However, in the era of subsidized and controlled economic management, I’m not so sure the corporations are stakeholders in economic growth.  Something is profoundly disconnected, or else the corporations would be raising hell with the politicians.

BERLIN, Aug 3 (Reuters) – BMW (BMWG.DE) lowered its output forecast and warned of a highly volatile second half on Wednesday, pinpointing supplies of energy in Europe and chips worldwide as the two crucial factors to the carmaker hitting full-year earnings targets.

New incoming orders were beginning to fall but order books remained filled for the next few months, chief executive Oliver Zipse said. (read more)

All of the basic indicators point in one direction.

Energy prices are squeezing consumers and paychecks. Energy driven inflation is high.  Rising housing costs, food costs, gasoline costs and energy costs have hit the consumer hard.  Credit card balances have jumped.  Consumer sales on non-essential items have dropped.  Factory activity around the world (Asia and Eurozone) is slowing or has stopped.  Durable goods inventories have climbed everywhere, without customers to purchase them.  All of these facets are happening exactly as we would expect.

However, the value of the companies negatively impacted by everything above, is not dropping at the same rate of the financial impact each company is incurring.  It’s as if the entire financial system is pretending that things are not as bad as they are.  This announcement from BMW is a good example of that.

Consider another example.  According to the employment data, and even accepting the data is skewed, somewhere around 3.9 million jobs restarted or were created in the first six months of this year.  Yet, despite that job growth the GDP declined -1.6% in the first quarter and -0.9% in the second.

How does an economy add almost 4 million jobs while simultaneously shrinking?

Either people are (1) less productive, or (2) working less hours, or (3) holding multiple jobs…. or a combination of the three.

Trying to filter through the economic noise to see beyond the horizon is becoming more difficult.

So, let’s bring this conversation down to Main Street.  What do you see around you?  What’s going on economically in your community?

Do you see lots of people in stores and shopping malls?

Do you see a lot of new purchases being made?

How are your family, friends and the people in your community being affected by this economy?