COMMENT: Marty, you are 100% spot on about governments only ever being capable of lying and mismanaging money and raising taxes. The Australian Labor party that ran on a mandate to not change superannuation are now proposing to change superannuation. Their plan is the abolish tax benefits for accounts with balances above $3M, using the usual argument of targeting only the rich. That is always the selling pitch isn’t it? Only the rich and of course the majority take the bait. I have desperately tried to inform people that it is NEVER just the rich that re impacted. I have can not for the. life of me get people to understand that the so called rich, will be required to sell assets to meet tax commitments and have less money to buy assets into the future, and that, that in turn will impact asset prices and thus affect everyone. Rich and poor. And then there is the obvious. Thresholds never remain where they begin and are always lowered. Government is on the hunt for money in every country. Cheers
AQ
REPLY: That is the problem. Most people do not want to believe that the government only looks out for its own power. It is so critical to prohibit career politicians no matter which direction they lean. For in the end, they will always lean in their own favor.
Perhaps you might remind them of the “Luxury Tax” that the sales pitch was they were going to tax their Ferarries, Fur Coats, & their French Wines. I was there in Australia back then. Maybe I saw two Ferraries because they were already 100% taxed to import. Some perhaps wore a fur coat down in Melbin, and nobody ever served me French wine – its was always Australian. People cheered then too – get those evil rich people. Then they woke up and ALL electrical products were suddenly a luxury.
The bulk of all taxes is always from the common people simply because we outnumber the billionaires. There are less than 500 such people in the USA. Confiscate all their wealth and you will not balance the budget even for one year.
QUESTION: Do you think that this entire scam with cryptocurrencies that the government will be able to track, do they realize that in war you take down the power grid and all digital currency fails? If the backup system is destroyed, all your digital currency will vanish. Are they this stupid? Is this why they have shills saying you are wrong?
HK
ANSWER: Yes. I have spoken to people involved in creating this insanity. First, they do not think there will ever be a nuclear war. Second, they really do think that they will create regime change in Russia at the expense of probably every Ukrainian alive today who are fools being led to the slaughter. When I have brought up the subject – WHAT IF YOU ARE WRONG! They dismiss it and do not even entertain plan B. The whole digital currency is all about tracking every dime. I have said many times, this is all about the new world order which is Schwab’s Great Rest and he knows that is our 2032 forecast. They all believe that forecast and are preparing to redesign the world this time to achieve their totalitarian dreams.
When I asked – Did you authorize Bitcoin? They just do not reply. Silence is golden. The launch of Bitcoin was just too damn convenient. That was standard operational political tactics – you float a balloon and see how the people accept it.
If you have ever been to Nuremberg, Germany, they have a bronze statue there – the Ship of Fools. The sculpture named Ship of Fools by Jurgen Weber is based on the satirical allegory by Sebastian Brant. This is now a reality.
The financial markets had become integrated globally prior to World War I. It was the globalization and openness of world financial markets that became the problem and are important to understand for we will face the same problem today. The capital was free to flow from one country to another before World War I. All the major countries of the world were on the Gold Standard at that point in time so exchange rates were not as volatile.
We can easily see that the currency market was very stable pre-1914 looking at the French Franc. Keep in mind that this was also a period of fiscal responsibility – pre-Socialism and Marx. Therefore, governments practiced balance budgets to retain confidence in their currencies. That enabled the gold standard to function. Furthermore, any differences in exchange rates were arbitraged. That is how the United States went into crisis in 1896 because the Democrats were inflating the system by overvaluing silver at 16:1 compared to 15:1 in Europe. That resulted in gold fleeing the United States and silver pouring in from international arbitrage.
There was also a viable arbitrage that took place trading the spreads between international bonds listed on the various world stock exchanges. Many countries would issue bonds in British pounds just as they do in dollars today to sell more to the investors in the financial capital of the world, which was London at that point in time.
A country such as China or Russia would issue a bond that was listed on the stock exchanges in London, New York, Paris, Berlin, Amsterdam as well as St. Petersburg in Russia. Here is a Chinese bond issued in British pounds in 1913 paying 5%. The differences in exchange rates, which would still fluctuate marginally, would be arbitraged by buying and selling bonds in different markets.
Consequently, during World War I, there was a global marketplace. In effect, this integration of markets presented a problem when the war hit. Capital could flee from one country to the next and thus the method to deal with the capital flows was to close the stock markets. The United States also closed the market in sympathy with Europe.
We will be taking a closer look at the various global markets. What you can count on is clearly CAPITAL CONTROLS. It would be best for those in Asia and Europe to have some capital tucked away in the United States. Once bullets start shooting, it will most likely be too late to move money.
Keep an eye on our Capital Flow tracking. This may become very critical in the months ahead.
History repeats because human nature never changes. During the Roman Republic, the name of the moneyer would appear on the coinage just as today the Secretary of the Treasury’s signature appears on our paper currency – i.e. Steven T. Munchin. To this day, our coins are denoted by which mint produced them – Philadelphia, Denver, or San Francisco.
The collapse of the monetary system following the capture of Emperor Valerian I in 260AD by the Persians, set off a collapse in public confidence whereby the people suddenly saw Rome as vulnerable. What is fascinating is that the “hyperinflation” of Rome which took place in just 8.6 years, was aided by the corruption within the Deep State of the Roman Empire. This raises the question: We will see the same thing take place during our final 8.6 years into 2032 which begins by May 2024. The debasement of the coinage was NOT on the decree of the Emperor. This was the greed of those in the Deep State.
Following the assassination of Emperor Gallienus, that is when Claudius II came to power and the debasement reached it lowest point during his reign. The Goths invaded Rome and brought the plague with them from the East. Emperor Claudius II died of the plague. Claudius’s brother, Quintillus tried to succeed him, but Aurelian and his troops marched against him. His troops deserted him and he committed suicide.
Therefore, Aurelian became emperor in 270 AD and he returned to Rome in 271 AD, where he had to pacify a terrified city. He immediately halted the rioting and restored order to the capital. The controller of the mint in Rome began a rebellion over the monetary reforms laid out by Aurelian. He ordered that all the debased currency be purchased back and replaced with a new currency of higher content in silver. The rebellion was led by Felicissimus. It appears that those who had been running the mint were embezzling the intended silver and issuing the debased coinage at least in part on their own authority.
Obviously, any reform to the monetary system that called for an increase in silver content would have been unprofitable for those running the mint for personal gain. In the rebellion, as many as 7,000 soldiers died when Aurelian was forced to trap and execute them and their allies, some of the senatorial ranks, in a terrible battle on the Caelian Hills. Thereafter, Aurelian then introduced mintmarks to identify if any mint was cheating the silver content.
When Diocletian (284-305AD) reorganized the coinage when he came to power as well as the political structure of the Roman Empire. With respect to politics, he divided the empire in two creating two emperors with their eventual successors given the rank of Caesar. This became the Tetrarchy.
The monetary reform introduced the new bronze coinage silver plated known as the follis terminating the radiate antoninianus which had begun as a double denarius during the reign of Caracalla (198-217AD). Diocletian required each mint to engrave their coins with an identifiable mint mark, and also letters or marks to indicate the individual workshops (officina) within the mints. Thereby, any collusion to debase the coinage would be identifiable to a specific group within each mint.
Each mint mark from Diocletian onwards consists of a group of letters identifying the mint (normally in the exergue) and usually (but not always) letter(s) and/or mark(s), sometimes in the exergue, sometimes in the field, These identified the individual workshop within the mint. In the West, workshops were numbered either in Latin numerals I, II, III or in the initial letters of Latin ordinals such as P(rimus), S(ecundus), T(ertius). The problem with Latin surfaced when trying to distinguish between S(ecunda) and S(exta) or between Q(uarta) and Q(uinta). They had to develop in the West a mixed system of Greek and Latin to give P(rima), B, T(ertia), Q(uarta), E, and S(exta) valid meanings. Western mints sometimes used the Greek system at varying times.
Here we can see a silver Argentius (2.87 grams) with the “R” Roman mint mark. Lugdunum used “PL” for their mint mark as illustrated by this follis of Maximianus – Diocletiuan’s co-emperor.
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Now with Switzerland outlawing a cashless society, I understand your point that cryptocurrency is really a dead end. Without power, it cannot exist and as you said in times of war, you take down the power grid and they can do that with an EPM pulse. These Bitcoin zealots are clueless about history and humanity. It’s just another way to separate a fool from his money.
Thank you for the education
BH
REPLY: The whole blockchain was the perfect creation of a totalitarian state. They can trace everything. How would you bribe politicians? It would all have to revert to barter. Do this and I will give you that – off the grid. This is why people are still buying real estate, precious metals, ancient coins, art, collectibles, and various things that are tangible and are thus off the grid.
Having funds in any cryptocurrency is still on the grid. When I was one of the three top market-makers in gold back in the ’70s, the IRS walked in and said they declared me to be a bank. Thus, I was supposed to report every transaction of $10,000 or more. They acknowledged I did not realize I was a bank, so they waived the fines. They seized all my records and went off to audit over 3,000 clients. They claimed that gold was not DEMONETIZED as money, just suspended for a while. I retired because I was supposed to report customers but not everyone else in the field. My lawyers said I could fight it. It would take years. My model warned that gold would decline for 19 years anyway so I choose to retire. The clients still wanted the research and thus Princeton Economics was spun off separately.
They can declare every person running an exchange in crypto is now a bank and must report every transaction. They can be put them out of business in the blink of an eye. These people have no idea who they are messing with. You will not win. All this is because of their twisted view of fiat money. They no more understand money and assets any more than Karl Marx.
During inflation, assets rise in value, and money declines. That took place during the 19th century when a gold coin was money. MONEY has NEVER been of a constant value – NEVER! These people yelling fiat simply do not comprehend that for thousands of years, there has always been a business cycle and that means money rises and calls in purchasing power REGARDLESS of whatever it has been. The fiscal irresponsibility of governments is well documented throughout history long before paper money.
Even under a gold standard, there were periods of inflation and deflation. Read the history of the California Gold Rush. During the 1849 Gold Rush in California, the journalist for the New York Tribune, Bayard Taylor (1825-1878), arrived in San Francisco by ship during the summer of 1849. He was shocked at what he encountered and did not think that anyone would even believe what he was going to write. His dispatches about the gold rush economy in California stunned many and helped to create the 1849 Gold Rush.
The average wage for a laborer in New York was about one or two dollars a day. In California, individual hotel rooms were rented to professional gamblers for upwards of $10,000 a month, which is the equivalent of about $300,000 today. The degree of inflation in terms of gold was astounding and lacks comparison in modern times. There was so much gold, that the value of goods rose even though they did not in New York. The inflation phenomenon was local.
Gold became so common; they were even striking $50 gold coins in California when $20 was the highest denomination elsewhere and $1-dollar coins down to 25 cents all in gold. Eventually, there were $1 gold coins minted in the United States for general circulation throughout the USA. Indeed, Taylor wrote:
“[One] citizen of San Francisco died insolvent to the amount of forty-one thousand dollars the previous autumn. His administrators were delayed in settling his affairs and his real estate advanced so rapidly in value meantime that after his debts were paid, his heirs had a yearly income of $40,000 [$1.2 million today].
“These facts were indubitably attested; everyone believed them, yet hearing them talked of daily, as matters of course, one at first could not help feeling as if he had been eating ‘of the insane root.’”
It does NOT matter what is money. It will always rise and fall as measured against tangible assets as it has done since Babylonian times. In fact, the very first attempt to control inflation, as the central banks are doing right now, were the wage and price controls put in place by the legal codes of the Assyrians and Babylonians.
So – stop the BS. Understand that there are times when CASH will be king regardless of what money is at that moment in time, and then it will fall in value when everyone wants tangible assets. There is a business cycle – learn to live with it and we will be better off. The hard-nosed cryptocurrency zealots will never admit they are wrong. They are like politicians and will cling to their theories no matter what evidence you show them.
I asked one once, to name a single period in history where money was constant and never declined in value. He could not!
Bitcoin is an instrument for trading. This very chart CONFIRMS it is by no means a store of wealth. It rises and falls like ant commodity of stock. It is still influenced as part of the business cycle. Sorry – there is NOTHING that is a perfect store of wealth. Everything fluctuates. Trade Bitcoin, that is fine. But do not make a religion out of it for you will lose not just your shirt, but your pants as well.
QUESTION: Hi AE…so gov’t “money” (fiat currency) will become just some abstract floating measurement of value, an electronic entry in an electronic account in the cybersphere. As these various so-called gov’ts become less reliable, even between themselves, do you see the possibility of them simply skipping their phony currencies, & trading directly in gold. Russia could ship a specific quantity of crude to China, for a specific amount of gold bars. Your argument about the impracticality of a gold-backed currency makes sense, but what about large transactions being settled in gold?
HS
ANSWER: The entire problem that people do not grasp with regard to any return to a gold standard is that if the money supply is FIXED in any way, that necessitates the collapse of SOCIALISM. The two are directly linked. Politicians only know how to run with deficits. Vote for me and I will give you this or that!
The Bretton Woods gold standard collapsed because they FIXED the price of gold at $35, but they continued to print money far beyond the supply of gold at that fixed price. In addition, you have a business cycle. There will be times when no matter what the money might be, there will be boom times when the value of money declines and the asset values rise.
This argument over gold v fiat is absolutely just nonsense. The wealth of any nation is the productive capacity of its people. For centuries, the business cycle has existed and that is the entire cause for the “inflation” in assets when money declines in value, and then the “deflation” in assets with the value of money rises. Arguing over what we use for money will NEVER stop the business cycle.
The cycle is also in part driven by all governments. It becomes a drug of power that is abused. It would not matter what we use for money right now, they want to create World War III so they can default, and escape from the abuse of this Marxism that they have turned into a system of borrowing every year with no intention of paying anything back. But we have reached the confrontation between Keynesianism where central banks are expected to prevent inflation by rising interest rates, but that has no impact on the government which has become the biggest borrower in the system.
We are going BUST not because of the money we use, but because of the abuse of power in government which has always existed since ancient times.
Trust me. Forget gold standards. They will never work because all governments act only in their own self-interest. You should have learned that with COVID. They will never admit any mistake EVER! It is far better to keep gold on our side of the table and we can then use it as a hedge against governments. They are seeking to move to digital currencies ONLY so they can track when you hired the 16-year-old girl next door to babysit for you so they can go after her for the government’s 50% share.
Even Bitcoin is fiat. There is no backing. People have dived headfirst into cryptocurrency on the entire proposition that they are limited. All they have done is proven my point. Money, historically, has been everything from seashells and cattle to bronze, silver, and gold. Of all the various forms of money, only bronze and cattle had any real commodity value based on utility.
The Egyptians really invented paper money for the farmers would deposit their grain and receive a receipt which was a bearer instrument used in trade. They also used raw metal, not coins, and traded based on weight, as it stated in the Bible. Here is a piece of pottery from Egypt recording a complaint about taxes written in Greek. It stated the sum amounted to a total of 90 talents of silver with 15 talents of tax on the transfer of land – 16.6%.
For thousands of years, Egypt had no coins until it was conquered by Alexander the Great, and upon his death, his general Ptolemy I (305/304 – 282 BC) took the throne and it was his Greek line from which Cleopatra VIII came – not Egyptian.
Our system is starting to implode. Never in the history of human civilization have governments demanded taxes on income requiring reporting every year. This was the gift of Karl Marx. Just as this Egyptian tax on the transfer of land, we see that property taxes and a form of sales tax were the norms.
The American Constitution was intended to give thenational government greater power to raise revenue because the previous Articles of Confederation had been a fiscal disaster. Nevertheless, most people remained fearful of taxation by governments. Indirect taxes were to be the way to secure our liberty from tyrannical governments. It was generally understood that indirect taxes meant taxes on consumption like a retail sales tax and/or excise taxes on imports. It was believed that indirect taxes did not lend themselves to abuse by tyrannical governments. Consequently, the general belief was that “direct taxes” has to be taken off the table. Incomes taxes, throwing out the window of all the wisdom of the ages, were imposed by the new age of Marxism in 1913.
Our computer warns that 2025 will be the turning point in Marxism.
The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark by 25 bps, as expected. The Fed fully understands that the manipulation of the CPI is a necessary aspect both for containing government benefits and understating inflation also results in high tax revenues. The market loves hope, and as a result, they focused on the warning that we’ll be in restrictive territory for just a bit longer. Most still believe that there will be a slowdown in inflation just ahead.
The Fed’s cautionary commentary saying that the “disinflation process” has started triggered shares to jump ending up 1%. This shows how insane the analysis had become that they cheer a recession and think that lower interest rates are bullish for the stock market. Obviously, they just listen to the talking heads on TV and have never bothered to look at reality. When interest rates decline, so has the stock market. Interest rates rose for the entire Trump Rally, and they crashed during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. For the life of me, I just shake my head when the talking heads cheer lower rates and spread doom and gloom with higher rates.
Limes denarius (Lim-ace) or coins of the borders, may be another example of coins of necessity issued because of a shortage of silver in the border regions. It has also been suggested that they may also be officially sanctioned issues for use in regions where political unrest made it hazardous to ship large amounts of silver. Others have suggested that they were used to pay barbarians on the fringes of the empire for local work.
The most likely reason for their issue is based upon history repeats because human nature and its decision process will lead to the same conclusion no matter what the century. Therefore, it also remains possible that these were military scripts paid to soldiers on the front lines just as they did during World Wars I and II to pay locals. They would have reduced the need for vast amounts of precious metals on the front line. These bronze issues of denarii could have served troops on the front and been redeemable for good coinage when they returned to the stable regions. Whatever the reason, many of these coins exist. They have been often viewed as possibly “coins of necessity” issued during periods of a lack of silver. Some examples may still bear traces of a very thin silver wash.
A “Limes Denarius” were struck from official dies. Thus, these AE denarii official issues use the same dies as those intended for the silver denarii. However, there are also some that appear to be cast from typical clay forgers’ dies and sometimes may have been cast in molds. There are no written accounts of this practice within the official monetary system. However, if troops are paid with real money and they lose a battle, the opponent will then seize whatever money they had and use it to further fund their operations. If the soldiers only have a military script, then there is no financial benefit to the opponent if they should defeat your troops.
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