Poking the Panda


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Japan has made the very same mistake just the following orders from Washington about seizing Russian assets. The Japanese government is freezing the assets of 17 more Russian politicians tycoons, and their relatives to step up sanctions and pressure Moscow to end its invasion of Ukraine. Russia froze, in turn, a list of US politicians which interestingly included Hillary Clinton because she was behind the whole 2000 attempt to blackmail Yeltsin which the American Press will never report no less investigate

Meanwhile, things are heating now around Taiwan as the US has for the first time in several years, sent an American aircraft carrier just outside China’s maritime waters demonstrating its’s read to launch World War III. China’s military leadership has put the country’s Armed Forces on alert for 12 days while they have now ordered the largest airborne and amphibious landing exercise in their military history.

China is moving rapidly to circumvent not just the SWIFT clearing system, but also to establish the Yuan as the next coming leading currency. The Euro has failed and China is negotiating even the purchase of oil from Saudi Arabia denominated in Yuan. The arrogance of the Neocons in really running the country has become well known outside the USA. They think they really can defeat both China and Russia and then Build Back Better with w new Bretton Woods. All I can say is they are seriously wrong and they will only create World War III, they will lose, and the financial capital of the world will shift to China. That has been the forecast of our computer for decades now and instead of listening, they try to defeat it.

The Chinese economy will peak in 2036 but the West in 2032. We are in the last three waves and 2023 does not look good around the world.

The ECM & March 14th


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There are so many events that took place on the ECM turning point it is hard to cover them all. Aside from the fact that this target will most likely also see the first interest rate rise by the Fed signally that this trend has changed, the SEC came out in full force warning about count-party risks and that brokers need to collect full margins as they see a host of companies that were in Russia taking major losses just as Blackrock on its emerging market investment portfolio. Do not forget that Blackrock is a money manager and the loss in one fund cannot be covered by taking money from another separate fund. Hence, the bigger they are, the harder they do fall and we must be mindful of a crisis that can easily appear based upon a run on one entity.

We have bond markets crashing and the stocks have continued to decline in many areas because of the profound damage the Biden Administration has done globally that nobody in Washington seems to even comprehend. We are facing shortages in everything from aluminum cans to paper cups which now even Starbucks is discontinuing.

Then the London Metals Exchange (LME) for the FIRST time in history imposed a fixed price range for trading Nickel after extreme volatility in prices triggered a rare market shut down last week. The LME halted nickel trading and canceled trades after prices doubled on March 8 to more than $100,000 per tonne in a matter of hours. Naturally, they have blamed short-covering by one of the world’s top producers. Nevertheless, we are looking at a permanent disruption to world supplies and August looks to be exceptionally challenging ahead.

The LME also imposed 15% limits on other base metals including aluminum, copper, lead, tin, and zinc. This is the FIRST time in its 145-year history the LME has ever placed limits on outright contracts. This conflict in Ukraine has driven the prices of commodities higher from food to industrial metals with many reaching record highs supply from Russia has declined. Russia is a key world producer of aluminum, copper, and nickel. The price swings in Nickel last week saw the price jump more than $18,000 on Monday and then over $50,000 a day later which has sent the LME into a crisis adopting the suspension of trading.

What is unfolding is that the arrogance of the Neocons and their personal hatred of Russia and China has run its course. They are now setting in motion the decline and fall of the West. A crisis is unfolding. This crisis of commodities that our computer has been forecasting for this wave 2020-2024, is actually helping to undermine the world economy and shifting even the use of the dollar internationally. Saudi Arabia has agreed to accept the Chinese Yuan in return for oil. That is the start of this shift and this too took place on this turning point. The seizure of private Russian assets was such a profound violation of international law, that international capital realizes that the SWIFT system is now political and no longer trustworthy. The very foundation of the G7 has been undermined by the seizure of Russia’s FX reserves.

The United States has also announced a ban on Russian oil and, along with other Group of Seven (G-7) nations, moved to end Russia’s normal trade relation status, making it more difficult for Russia to do business with the West. While the US points to the collapse of the Russian Ruble and the Russian stock market remaining closed as evidence of the effectiveness of sanctions, they have not understood that they have severed the entire world economy and this has ended the dominance of Western multinational companies. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed confidence to reporters Tuesday that Russia will “find a way to eliminate” its economic dependence on the West. Indeed, we are already seeing signs that China is following the same directions. This is not a one-sided victory for the Biden Administration. They have completely destroyed the world economy in precisely three years. Decades of building international trade and trying to create free trade agreements of the past several administrations are now completely destroyed.

While Psaki told reporters that: “We’ve made President Putin’s war of choice a strategic failure,” she had better look at the catastrophic collapse unfolding in the world economy. We have the Neocons to thank for this for all they have seen is hatred for Russia and China. They have NEVER been for peace and they have always needed an enemy. The press will not report the truth that there is rising discontent among Ukrainians against Zelensky when he was elected to reduce tensions with China but has done nothing but try to create World War III. Zelensky has finally admitted that Ukraine will not join NATO – something he cause a war over which violated the principles of the 2014 Minsk Agreement.

It has been the military that has been throwing cold water on this thirst for war driven by the Neocons who run their own government within the government regardless of the administration’s objectives. This time the Neocons have gone to war too far and have placed in harm’s way, not just the Ukrainian people, by the future of the world all for their personal hatred. This is why our model shows the Decline & Fall of the West post-2032. Our politicians have allowed the Neocons to run their own secret agenda whereas the American people are tired of their endless wars.

The Insanity of the Biden Administration – Decline & Fall of the West


Armstrong Economics Blog/Neocons Re-Posted Mar 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Biden Administration has been fully subordinated to the Great Reset. It is highly debatable if Joe is really doing anything. During an international crisis, he still takes off weekends and heads to Delaware. Gee, perhaps I should run for President and get weekends off instead of having to work 7 days a week during a crisis. OMG – I never knew I could work less as a leader of the questionable free world given the 2 years of COVID imprisonment.

Biden’s pick of Sarah Bloom Raskin for the Chair of the Federal Reserve will completely destroy the integrity of the Federal Reserve. Installing another Climate Change zealot is just beyond belief. There is no aspect of the economy that the Biden Administration has not undermined which he is desperately trying to blame inflation of Putin. From the perspective of China and Russia, they are watching their greatest adversary commit suicide. One does not step in to prevent that for it becomes an easy victory. Biden is even trying to cut a nuclear deal with Iran, which is the leading terrorist nation that was kept at bay by Saddam in Iraq who we removed. Biden will hand them money which will only be used against the United States. They will join Russia and China against the West – make no stupid mistake about that.

In all honesty, I have NEVER seen such total propaganda coming from ANY Administration as that of this one. No lie was told by any previous administration Republican or Democrat that has ever reached the level of total absurdity as what is coming from Biden and Pelosi. Pelosi actually said that government spending no longer increases the National Debt. The only possible way for that to happen is you stop borrowing and just create money. The end of Keynesian Economics. In Pelosi’s own words she actually said:

“When we’re having this discussion, it’s important to dispel some of those who say, well it’s the government spending. No, it isn’t. The government spending is doing the exact reverse, reducing the national debt. It is not inflationary.”

Then Pelosi claims that it is “Global Inflation” and that is why this is Putin’s fault. But sanctions have never work not even once in history, and they knew imposing these drastic sanctions would further the commodity shortage they already caused with the lockdowns. Then in the middle of international war, the Navy actually refused to deploy a warship because its Commander remained Unvaccinated! So you cannot defend the country unless you are vaccinated? I am sure Xi and Putin are having the biggest laugh of their life.

We are heading into war because this is not just part of the Great Reset to recreate another Bretton Woods and default on National Debts that have become no longer sustainable, but the Biolabs conducting “research” as the Neocons claim, were involved in creating Bioweapons that genetically target specific ethnic groups. They have collected a lot of DNA samples with all the COVID tests. Remember Macron refused a COVID Test by Russia because they would then have his DNA. Once you have a person’s DNA, you can create a disease that is targeted that will kill just that person. The biological weapons have advanced and this is what Russia and China are concerned about where the Neocons refuse to allow inspections.

Putin has been very consistent about stopping the advancement of NATO. It was 51.6 weeks into the Biden Administration when Russia insisted that Finland not join NATO which they rejected. In the Balkans, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has obscured the intentions of Bosnia and Herzegovina to also join NATO, which Moscow vehemently opposes. We are looking at Serbia, which is pro-Russian, also looking to oppose NATO on their border. While the West claims that NATO is defensive and not offensive, that is not what their actions suggest. They have kept trying to move forward against Russia and once NATO troops enter, they bring mobile nuclear weapons. For Ukraine to have entered NATO, that would have been the same threat to Russia as when they attempted to install nuclear weapons in Cuba during the Kennedy Administration.

In war, both sides twist the facts to support their own agenda. These Neocons have been pushing US policy regardless of the administration. The only one who stood up against them was Trump which is why they had to ensure he was removed.  Presidents appear to be afraid of the Neocons for they are a government of their own within the government.

Here is that interview where Chuck Schumer confirms that no politician will EVER investigate the intelligence branch or the Neocons for they hold unbridled power to do as they like when they like. The Neocons create the narrative and they direct the country to their agenda.

We must be focused on the weeks of 03/28, 06/06, and 09/12 geopolitically looking ahead and 2023 looks crazy both in geopolitical terms as well as economically.

Thirsty Macron Appears Jealous of International Media Fawning Over Zelenskyy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 15, 2022 | Sundance 

As the international media fawn over their latest social media star, the “Churchill in a T-shirt”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the former darling of EU media, French President Emmanuel Macron is apparently feeling slighted.

Western PR teams have been working diligently to maintain the “better story,” as they advance the beatification of pop star Zelenskyy.  The producers and directors for Volodymyr’s scruff and edgy leadership have kept his fans updated on Instagram, Facebook and Twitter, as Ride of The Valkyries echos as a background theme while team-Z dodge cruise missiles on their way to the local Starbucks.

However, all of this unilaterally focused adoration does not sit well with King Macron of Paris.  In an effort to combat the rugged warlike appeal of St. Zelenskyy of Kyiv, the thirsty French president called for immediate poses of him in a series of similarly scruffy press shots:

Thanks to social media adoration, Zelenskyy, the modern EU trendsetter, is making beatnik great again. There are already rumors of a run on vintage jeans, sneakers and T-shirts within Brussels, as several NATO leaders dispatch their aides looking for the hot, new and modern authentic war look.

A daily series of live-streamed war summits are likely in the works as NATO leadership start catching up to the pop-optics by organizing burning barrels of diesel fuel in the background of their zoom calls.  With resources allocated, thirsty Macron is going to climb back on top.

Members Only


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 15, 2022 | Sundance 

This is the state of our union….

In order for the two-winged UniParty vulture to continue devouring the host they must always do two things:

(1) Present the illusion of choice; and
(2) Pretend not to know things.

The frustration you feel is a feature of the controlled program, it is not a flaw.  We The People are in an abusive relationship with our own government. The only real divide in our nation is the division between two classes: rulers (with wealth) and the ruled (without).  All other divisions are purposefully created by those who operate the system.

Inflation serves their interests.  Inflation cheapens the debt burden they create, which allows them to keep spending and transferring taxpayer wealth to themselves and the club insiders.  We The People are in an abusive and subservient relationship with our own government.

Ukraine is a shiny thing that keeps us from watching them.   Do not be distracted.

We’ve just suffered through a global pandemic…


Posted originally by Tulsi Gabbard  Published March 15, 2022 on Rumble

Did Manchin Just Save the Federal Reserve?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Mar 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Once again Joe Manchin has broken away from party lines to prevent the Democrats from destroying the global economy. Manchin announced that he would not support President Biden’s pick for Fed chair, Sarah Bloom Raskin, as her personal views on climate change could drastically alter Fed policy. “I have carefully reviewed Sarah Bloom Raskin’s qualifications and previous public statements. Her previous public statements have failed to satisfactorily address my concerns about the critical importance of financing an all-of-the-above energy policy to meet our nation’s critical energy needs,” Manchin stated. “I have come to the conclusion that I am unable to support her nomination to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board.”

A group of senators wrote an urgent letter to Joe Biden in February, citing “concern about Ms. Bloom Raskin’s potential abuse of power to inflict harm upon the traditional fuel industry.” The Federal Reserve is intended to operate as an independent body that is not swayed by politics. However, Raskin is an advocate for pushing forward the Build Back Better agenda by banning investments in fossil fuels. In May 2020, Raskin wrote an op-ed that stated the Federal Reserve should simply refrain from investing in energy. “The decision to bring oil and gas into the Fed’s investment portfolio not only misdirects limited recovery resources but also… undermines urgent efforts to counter surging carbon dioxide and methane emissions, which are bringing us closer to the catastrophe of an unlivably [sic] hot planet,” she stated. She reiterated her position countless times and has urged all financial regulators and auditors to “mitigate climate-related threats by stepping forward and incentivizing a rapid, orderly, and just transition away from high-emission assets.”

The letter penned by concerned senators claimed that Raskin is an “activist” who is unfit to be placed in a top leadership position at an allegedly non-partisan central bank. Interestingly, the letter was penned before the war in Ukraine that has only led to worsening energy prices. The Federal Reserve is the most important financial entity in the United States, and the United States is currently the leader of the global economy. Biden is showing the people once again that he does not care about them or the economy by appointing someone dangerously unqualified to support this New Green World Order. The Biden Administration is continuing to back Raskin and has said that any claims against her are simply baseless lies funded by the evil fossil fuel industry. The only way Raskin could be appointed now would be for one Republican to back her nomination, which seems quite unlikely.

Tucker Carlson Notes the Moonbat Crazy Over Ukraine Is Bipartisan


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 14, 2022 | Sundance

Comrades, Tucker Carlson’s opening monologue outlined the insanity of our current situation tonight.

Washington DC and the media echo chamber all agree that Ukraine is the most important shiny thing everyone should pay attention to…  and if you don’t, you’re a Russian agent – because freedom.

Elizabeth Warren Promised High Gas Prices, Joe Biden Delivered Them


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 14, 2022 | Sundance

In September of 2019, Elizabeth Warren promised to do something on her first day in office that would rebuild the Russian economy, grow China’s influence and support the Maduro regime in Venezuela.  We immediately wrote about it HERE.

SEPT 7, 2019 – Democrat presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren has made a campaign promise that was quite remarkable:

What Senator Elizabeth Warren promised in that tweet is EXACTLY what Joe Biden did on his first day in office.   Now, before going further, let me explain something about that relationship that will likely make a lot more sense.

You might remember when all the democrat candidates in the 2020 primary were told to drop out right before Super Tuesday, as part of the organized effort to stop Bernie Sanders from becoming the nominee.  The lone holdout was Senator Elizabeth Warren.  She was polling essentially even with Joe Biden while Bernie was leading.

It was very well documented at the time that Senator Warren was negotiating terms with the Biden team for her compliance and support.  Eventually, as the controlled party momentum grew, Warren agreed to drop out of the race, and she endorsed Joe Biden.  The terms of that agreement were never made public, but when we look at the priority of Warren (tweet), and compare it to the literal duplication of that pledge that was carried out by Joe Biden, well, the coincidence doesn’t look coincidental.   I digress…

Back to the original statement by Warren.  At the time she made this statement in 2019, we outlined a very specific series of consequences that would happen if she really did target fossil fuel on day one.  Now that Joe Biden has carried out exactly what Warren outlined, let’s go back to that 2019 outline of consequences and compare it to where we are today.

SEPTEMBER 2019 – The consequences of such policy are not esoteric; they are very real and very serious.  Who would immediately benefit from Warren’s policy: Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela. Who would suffer – Americans.  Here’s how…

Within the first 24 hours of Elizabeth Warren’s presidency she is promising to dramatically raise the price of Oil and Natural Gas.  This will:

  • Immediately hand Vladimir Putin hundreds of billions worth of enhanced Russian energy exports.  A windfall of economic growth that will mean Russian policy expansion globally.
  • Support the regime of Venezuelan dictator Maduro who relies on oil production and pricing to keep his socialist government in place.
  • Expand the influence of China; and increase the value of Beijing’s investments in Russian energy and 49% state in PDVSA (Venezuela).
  • Immediately help the Iranian economy; enhance the stranglehold of power by the Mullah’s over the Iranian people; help fund terrorist actions globally, and specifically create terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya and Israel.
  • Return U.S. policy and strategy back to a position of dependence on OPEC nations; so we can expect more U.S. military involvement in the middle-east (as above).
  • Destroy growth in American wages , and set up energy policy that will drive further industrial manufacturing out of the U.S. and into Mexico and Asia.
  • Simultaneously drive up the price of electricity in the U.S, further exacerbating the financial costs and losses to the U.S. middle class.
  • Raise gas prices back to Obama-era rates $5/gal.
  • In turn this will drive up the cost of transported products, and U.S. food prices will jump approximately 20% as massive inflation hits highly-consumable categories first.
  • The collective impact of the four domestic points above will drive down the ability of consumers to spend on other goods.  The U.S. economy is two-thirds dependent on consumer spending…. The collective impact means economic contraction.

Candidate Elizabeth Warren is promising to deliver these results in the first 24 hours of her administration if she was to win the presidency.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has never worked in the private sector, nor has she created anything that is materially not connected to government expansion.  She is proposing policy without any comprehension of downstream impact on a domestic, international, geopolitical or national security basis.  Senator Warren promises these impacts in her first 24 hours in office.

{BREAK}

Everything written above was written in 2019 and predicted to happen if the President were to: “sign an executive order that puts a total moratorium on all new fossil fuel leases for drilling offshore and on public lands. And ban fracking—everywhere.”

On his first day in office, Joe Biden did exactly that.

FORBES – “Through an executive action, Biden revoked permits for the Keystone XL Pipeline and put a temporary moratorium on oil and gas leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, moves hailed by environmental and indigenous activists.” (link)

MONEY MARKETS – “President Biden signed an executive order pausing new federal oil fracking leases. (link)

CNBC – “Biden’s orders direct the secretary of the Interior Department to halt new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters, and begin a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development.” (link)

Now, think about where we are right now with gasoline prices and food store prices and inflation.  Scroll back up and look at what was predicted to happen in 2019 if those energy policies and executive orders were carried out.

Don’t tell me no one could see this coming.  Everything from the strength of the Russian position, providing them the economic leverage to enter Ukraine, to the current gas prices and food inflation is a natural outcome of those specific policies.

Last point – While I have no inside knowledge to make the case definitive, it certainly does look to me like the terms of Warren’s exit and endorsement were delivered by Joe Biden on his first day in office.  Now we are feeling the consequences.

Whoops, Narrative Shifting – Ex British Special Forces Reported Among Victims of Russia Strike Against Military Training Facility in Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 14, 2022 | Sundance 

As with all things Ukraine, when the initial reports of the Russian cruise missile attack against the military training facility located near the border with Poland, we said to be cautious about western reporting of no NATO military personnel present, killed or injured.

The reason is for the warning was simple – if NATO is providing weapons and training, they’ve got to be doing the distribution and training somewhere in Ukraine near the NATO border.  Conduct war operations in a war zone, and you run the risk of war outcomes.

Now the Daily Mail is beginning to report on ‘missing, feared dead’ former British special forces operators likely killed in the blast.  As the story evolves, how long will it be before U.S. headlines carry similar missing U.S. “contractor” stories?

Most of the U.S. and NATO warfighting is carried out by independent contractors or mercenary groups now.  Ukraine is the perfect battlespace for that unofficial type of war fighter engagement.

(Daily Mail) – Three British former special forces soldiers are feared to have been killed in a Russian airstrike near the Polish border. More than 30 Russian cruise missiles targeted the Yavoriv base yesterday, killing as many as 180 people.

Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for Russia’s ministry of defence, said the base was struck by ‘long-range, high-precision’ weapons because it was hosting ‘foreign mercenaries and a large shipment of foreign weapons’.

He added: ‘The destruction of foreign mercenaries who arrived on the territory of Ukraine will continue.’

Konashenkov said up to 180 people had been killed in the strike, though Ukraine initially said 35 people died and another 134 were wounded.

But a source told The Mirror today: ‘There were many more killed within the site than has been claimed and bodies are still being found.

[…] ‘This is extremely sensitive as there are believed to be no serving British military personnel inside Ukraine as politically that would be extremely controversial.’ 

[…] A Ukrainian officer said there were around 1,000 foreigners at the camp – officially known as the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security – at the time. (read more)

“1,000 foreigners” at the military camp, and we are supposed to believe none of them were American?

There’s a big motive to keep any American or British death quiet, because it would undermine the official narrative being broadcast by western media.  All of these mercenary soldiers know they are operating in an unofficial capacity in order to provide western government with plausible deniability.  That is the risk that “contracted” war fighters assume when they take the very generous money offered.  It’s a mess.

Keep watching.