Posted originally on Jun 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Polynesian island of Tuvalu is composed of nine coral islands across a 420-mile distance in the west-central Pacific Ocean. The ocean has come to reclaim the islands as the natural cycle of climate change has led the surrounding sea level to rise at about 3.9 mm annually, yet the island is only 2 meters above sea level. Australia is now offering the island’s 11,000 inhabitants the opportunity to apply for the world’s first climate visa.
NASA believes that the majority of the islands will be submerged by 2050. Tuvalu has begun the process of digital preservation to maintain records of its culture and landscapes before the islands are reclaimed.
Numerous studies have pointed to dynamic coral processes as the primary reason for rising sea levels. Dynamic coral processes reference the natural order of oceanographic forces that reshape coral reef structures. Certain marine life and reef-building corals produce calcium carbonate and accrue as gravel and sand. The ocean waves and currents naturally break down these structures over time and cause reefs to shift, contract or expand. The reef masses themselves are living landforms that are susceptible to accretion and erosion. Overall, these are not structurally sound for long-term inhabitation.
Australia is currently opening 280 visas for Tuvalu citizens annually for a small registration fee of $16. Visa applicants will be selected at random. Over 3,000 Tuvaluans have applied for a visa thus far. “This is the first agreement of its kind anywhere in the world, providing a pathway for mobility with dignity as climate impacts worsen,” a spokesperson for Australia’s foreign affairs department said. “At the same time, it will provide Tuvaluans the choice to live, study and work in Australia,” Australia’s foreign affairs department said.
“For the first time, there is a country that has committed legally to come to the aid of Tuvalu, upon request, when Tuvalu encounters a major natural disaster, a health pandemic or military aggression,” Tuvalu Prime Minister Feleti Teo said at the time. “Again, for the first time, there is a country that has committed legally to recognize the future statehood and sovereignty of Tuvalu despite the detrimental impact of climate changed-induced sea level rise.”
Australia is not doing this as a humanitarian act. Australia is offering visas with the stipulation that Tuvalu permits Australia to have a final say in defense pacts. As it may be, Tuvalu is one of the twelve states that maintains relations with Taipei over Beijing.
Tuvalu will be uninhabitable prior to 2050 as skilled workers flee to Australia. Australia, in turn, has control over the small island chain. Tuvaluan is seen as a stark warning to those who fear climate change, and yet, this is a naturally occurring phenomenon that humans cannot create or prevent.
Posted originally on Jun 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Some Democrats believe that Kamala Harris would have secured the presidency if it had not been for low voter turnout. Others, like Nancy Pelosi, have blamed Joe Biden for not stepping down sooner. Harris’s running mate Tim Waltz complained that millions of Biden voters stayed home. However, a new study by Pew Research aligns with the findings of a New York Times poll—Harris would have lost either way.
In 2020, 89% of Trump supporters voted compared to 85% of Biden supporters. The following presidential election saw the second-highest voter turnout since 1960 at 64%. However, 26% of eligible voters did not bother to vote in the past three presidential elections. A portion of the people who skipped the 2020 election felt the need to participate in 2024, with 54% of new voters casting a vote for Trump compared to 42% for Harris.
Over that four-year period, Trump retained 85% of his supporters. Harris, on the other hand, only secured 79% of Biden’s voter base from the previous election, and around 15% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 did not bother participating in the next presidential election.
Pew Research asked those who declined to participate in the election how they would have voted, and around 44% said they would have supported Donald Trump compared to 40% who would have backed Kamala Harris. When the same question was posed in 2020, 46% said they would have voted for Biden compared to 35% for Trump. Therefore, if all eligible American voters turned up to the polls, Trump likely would have secured more votes.
Interestingly, immigrants did not immediately back Kamala Harris. Biden beat Trump for the naturalized citizen vote in 2020 by 21 percentage points or 59% to 38%. Naturalized citizens composed 9% of the overall voters in 2024, with 51% backing Harris compared to 47% for Trump.
Record-high inflation under Biden was likely a key reason that Democrats lost a portion of their voter base. Open border policies, rising crime, a fixation on woke ideology, and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic likely also contributed to Trump’s victory. The American public was not happy with the Build Back Better agenda that Biden and Harris were promoting. Bidenomics failed and the majority is in a worse place financially after four years of Democratic leadership. So no, a higher voter turnout would not have helped Kamala enter the Oval Office.
Posted originally on Jun 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You are pessimistic about a resolution in the Iran-Israel conflict. Why is this different from Ukraine or even Vietnam?
Jake
ANSWER: This conflict between Iran and Israel is far more serious because it is Religious, not Ethnic, philosophical, or Conquest. The Ukraine conflict is ethnic. Ukrainians wrongly hate Russians because Stalin took their food and starved millions. What they REFUSE to admit was that this was retribution by Stalin’s right-hand man Kaganovich, who was from Kiev and was a Jew who was in charge of the operation that most saw as retribution for Ukrainian neo-Nazis who were slaughtering Jews.
There are four primary distinctions between war and its underlying causes. I will address this in a report on the 2025 Cycle of War, many have asked for an update. I will address how each can be resolved and what history teaches us. Wars unfold for different reasons internationally, whereas civil wars, more often than not, unfold because of unfair and oppressive taxation that favors one group over another.
There is also a strong correlation between migrations and civil war, as well as disease. Many plagues have followed invasions by the Mongols, bringing the Black Plague to Europe. Alternatively, returning Roman soldiers from waging war on Persia brought the Antonine Plague, which even claimed the life of Emperor Lucius Verus. Here is his coin celebrating his victory over Parthia (Persia).
The Plague of Cyprian (249-262 AD) most likely originated in Ethiopia. Evidence strongly suggests it was brought into the Roman Empire via troops returning from campaigns on the eastern frontiers, once again involving Persia. It was probably the war against the Sassanid Persians or conflicts in the region. Here is a coin of Trebonianus Gallus (251-253AD) appealing to Apollo Salvtari, who they hoped would protect society. Descriptions by St. Cyprian (Bishop of Carthage) suggest symptoms consistent with a viral hemorrhagic fever (like Ebola or a filovirus) or possibly a severe form of influenza or typhus. Some scholars also propose a re-emergence or mutated form of smallpox or measles. The exact pathogen remains uncertain.
Bishop Cyprian of Carthage, whom the plague is named after, and Dionysius of Alexandria) report that bodies were being piled in the streets. There was widespread fear and social disruption. The worst was the significant depopulation of cities and countryside, with an estimated loss of between 10% and 20% of the entire population—the impact on the Roman army and government function was profound. Even the emperor Hostilian died from this plague.
This catastrophic pandemic hit during the tumultuous Crisis of the Third Century. This caused massive mortality, further crippled the economy and military, fueled social unrest, and contributed to the empire’s near-collapse. It coincided with barbarian invasions and political instability.
The Europeans who invaded America brought diseases, and we cannot pinpoint a single exact percentage of the Indian population that died from disease. However, the overwhelming consensus among historians, anthropologists, and epidemiologists is that introduced European diseases killed somewhere between 80% and 95% of the Indigenous population of the Americas within roughly a century to a century and a half after contact. This represents a loss of tens of millions of lives and constitutes one of the most profound demographic disasters ever recorded. It fundamentally reshaped the societies, cultures, and landscapes of the entire hemisphere. (Sources: Alfred W. Crosby Jr. The Columbian Exchange; Noble David Cook Born to Die; Charles C. Mann *1491*; William M. Denevan The Native Population of the Americas in 1492)
The returning soldiers from World War I also brought back the Spanish Flu. In summary, roughly 675,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu, representing about 0.65% of the population at the time, with the majority of deaths occurring during the final stages of WWI and the immediate months following the Armistice. Again, just
Posted originally on Jun 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, why is it that the press and academia are not beating down your doors when you are the only one who had forecasted a recession into 2028 years in advance? I can only assume that this is a deliberate conspiracy to prevent others from understanding that the world economy is not random and, as you say, it’s all a confidence game. Do you think this is a conspiracy against you, aimed at preventing you from educating society?
HL
ANSWER: Yes, it is a conspiracy insofar as they do not want people to see that the economy is ordered and not random chaos. Here is Larry Summers saying that if you could forecast the future, then it would be self-fulfilling, which is how they view me. I even had the Commodity Futures Trading Commission file a complaint against me, demanding that I turn over a list of all my clients. They told the court that I was manipulating the world economy, and if I turned over my client list, they could prove it. My lawyer asked the court where the statute was that said I could not manipulate the entire world right down to his salary. He agreed, laughed, and denied them their crazy subpoena.
What’s at stake here? You vote for a politician who promises to solve a problem that they cannot. Democrats cannot blame Trump’s tariffs if the economy is turning down with or without his tariff war. WE are headed into war as the computer forecast because these people are on the verge of collapse. They need war as a decoy to blame Putin, just as Biden blamed Putin for the rise in gasoline prices when it was Biden who imposed the sanctions, not Putin. They MUST go to war for 72 years of borrowing with no intention of paying anything back, is now bringing the entire financial system to a grinding halt. The people in Europe will be storming the Parliaments with pitchforks, for they have ordered that, on average, 70% of pension funds must hold “safe” government debt. A sovereign default wipes out private pensions.
I put out the ECM, and it forecasted a peak in May 2024, from which we would turn down into a recession that would not bottom until 2028. This is not my opinion so it cannot be my influence. Those against me claim I am too influential, and that is why the forecasts are correct. Otherwise, they have to admit everything from Politics to Keynesian Economics is wrong. It cannot be that they are wrong; it must be that I am the problem. Human Nature has a very dark side, and I’m tired of being their target practice.
I had a good conversation with Paul back in 1999. He told me I was correct. The business cycle was about 8 years. Even the previous Fed Chairman, Arthur Burns, who presided over the collapse of Bretton Woods, concluded that the Business Cycle always wins. They have done everything they can to shut me up. I even survived the orchestrated attempt to assassinate me. I woke up from that coma to their dismay, and sometimes I wish I had not.
The entire sales pitch behind socialism is that you need government because ONLY they can bring ORDER to the CHAOS of randomness. As I have said, in physics class, they stated that nothing is random, and in economics class, they claimed that everything is random, so the government can manipulate society to eliminate recessions and depressions. But if the ECM is correct, then the BS they espouse cannot be accurate.
Posted originally on CTH on June 30, 2025 | Sundance
Canfield Mountain is in Coeur d’Alene, which is in northwestern Idaho, about 30 miles from Spokane, Washington. The fire appeared to have been set as part of an “ambush,” and sheriff’s deputies took active sniper fire, Kootenai County Sheriff Bob Norris said. Authorities said during a press conference that a man was found dead on Canfield Mountain with a gun nearby. That man is believed to be the shooter, Norris said. Briefing:
Posted originally on CTH on June 29, 2025 | Sundance
“Elbows up” and knees bent. As expected given the nature of their dependency, the Canadian government has rescinded the digital services tax against U.S. tech companies.
The June 30th collection is halted and the Canadian government led by Mark Carney will be bringing legislation to rescind the tax entirely.
CANADA – […] Minister of Finance and National Revenue, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, announced today that Canada would rescind the Digital Services Tax (DST) in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States. Consistent with this action, Prime Minister Carney and President Trump have agreed that parties will resume negotiations with a view towards agreeing on a deal by July 21, 2025.
The DST was announced in 2020 to address the fact that many large technology companies operating in Canada may not otherwise pay tax on revenues generated from Canadians. Canada’s preference has always been a multilateral agreement related to digital services taxation. While Canada was working with international partners, including the United States, on a multilateral agreement that would replace national digital services taxes, the DST was enacted to address the aforementioned taxation gap.
The June 30, 2025 collection will be halted, and Minister Champagne will soon bring forward legislation to rescind the Digital Services Tax Act. (LINK)
In the bigger picture Canada has a serious problem.
Canada is entirely dependent on the USA; there is no part of the Canadian economic system that can survive without total dependence on the USA. The Canadian economy is currently stagnant and their leftist government is desperate to find a way to collect revenue somehow, any way possible. Additionally, President Trump is going to end the USMCA trade agreement and shut down a majority of the benefits Canada has been extracting.
The most remarkable aspect to this reality is the denial within Canada. There are maybe a handful of honest Canadian economists, financial types and/or pundits who understand economic matters that are willing to outline and explain the details of Canada’s vulnerability…..
…. The rest are in denial, shouting ‘elbows up’ as if that is going to change the inevitable. The pretending is strong amid the snow Mexicans. Their denial is a mass formation psychosis. Stunningly so.
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