The Japanese Yen – 397 by 2032?


Posted originally on Jun 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

IBUSJY T 6 26 24

QUESTION: Marty, they called you Mr. Yen for good reason. I remember in 1998 when you sold $1 billion at 14700 on an MIT order (Market if Touched), and the dollar declined for 11 years thereafter. That 147 was your Yearly Bullish Reversal, which we blew through here in 2024, also on schedule. I remember that trade very well, and you said that if 147 were exceeded, the next stop would be 262. OK. We just hit 161. Are those forecasts from back then still valid?

TP

REPLY: Wow. You are still at it. My hat is off to you, as they say. Oh, I remember that trade very well. It was during the liquidity crisis with the collapse of Russia. Here is the Yen chart back to 1900. The primary resistance stands at the 210-212 level. We need 2024 to close above that Yearly Bullish Reversal at 147. Then, resistance will be below the Yearly Bullish Reversal of 262. It will form between 246 and 260. It appears to be a war on the horizon. Once the 262 level is exceeded, this points to 363, followed by 397 by the time we reach 2032.

Did Real Estate Peak with the ECM in May 2024?


Posted originally on Jun 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Shiller_U.S._National_Home_Price_Index 6 24 24

COMMENT: Marty, you are by far the greatest long-term forecaster ever. I worked on the floor in 2007 when the market crashed on the exact day of your ECM. Everyone called it Armstrong’s Revenge. That was the very day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index for 2007. I know you say the short term is noise, and you are not known for short-term day-to-day forecasts, which you avoid. I put my house up for sale and just sold it based on your May 3rd post where you said, “Home prices in the US are near all-time highs. ” The realtor told me that sales have started to decline, and I sold the high.

Amazing.

Thank you

Mike

TIME to Buy Time to Sell

REPLY: There is always a time to buy and a time to sell. The short-term is just noise. If the Dow or Gold rallies for two weeks and then declines, that does not alter the long-term course until we have reached a turning point. But people want to see you as a forecaster daily, which is nonsense. The more someone trades, the lower their performance, and the risks increase exponentially.  I have done the long-term because we were the largest institutional adviser. They are not day traders.

Case Shiller 20 City
ECM Wave 2002 2011 R

Yes, the 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave. With the prospect of war on the horizon, people will contract in their spending because of uncertainty.

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi

We have gone through a period of a boom, but with war on the horizon, people will pull back on their spending, and we will generally enter a recession from May 2024 into August 2028. The shift from the Blue to the Red states is still occurring. So, real estate in the blue states will fall in price rapidly. The decline will vary from place to place.

Now we should enter a BUYER’S market whereas from 2020-2024 was a SELLER’S Market.

A Technical Study of Relationships in Solar Flux, Water and other Gasses in the upper Atmosphere, Using the May, 2024 NASA & NOAA Data


The attached report on Global Weather for May 2024 Data has charts showing the relationship we tween CO2 growth and Temperature increases going up since we started to accurately measure CO2 in the atmosphere in 1958. These Charts were created by showing CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up by about ~34.0% from 1958 to May 2024. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree. 

Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature also from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the actual change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) is about ~.3% and may reach .5% by 2028. To even be able to see this minuscule change we had to reduce the scale of the CO2 axis by a factor of ten.

This Chart 8 uses unaltered values from NOAA and NASA properly displayed ,and the Blue and Yellow projections are created by Microsoft Excel not me.

The NOAA and NASA numbers tell us the story of the Changes in the planets Atmosphere As Carbon Dioxide goes up geometrically.

Venice – The Longest Republic but it had its Dark Side


Posted Jun 24, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

Venice St Mark Square

COMMENT: Marty,

Hope you’re doing well.

I just returned from a trip to Venice, Italy, and a local tour guide informed me of the following about the Venetian Republic, some of which is similar and some of which is slightly different than what you’ve mentioned in the past:

1.  it was the longest-lasting republic in the history of the world, lasting about 1100 years, abolished only by Napoleon’s threat, to whom it surrendered

2. its longevity was attributed to its ability to keep corruption in check, which it did by several methods:  its senators were given one term, and were chosen by randomly drawing names out of a bowl, which contained the names of all the eligible citizens of Venice; in summary, about 200 of those randomly drawn names were chosen to be in a pool of candidates, of which only about 50 of those were chosen to be senators for that term, based on a selection interview.

3.  the Venetian mouth, which you have represented in the past, was only used to submit names of people who were committing crimes against the republic, and any accusation had to be signed by two witnesses;  if the accusation was false, then the accusers would/could be put to death.

I found #2 above particularly interesting, as it would be akin to the US randomly selecting names out of a phone book to be representatives or senators. . .

Take care,

L

Augustus AV Aureus 1st issue

REPLY: Yes, there has always been a rivalry as to the longest-lasting Republic claimed by Venice. That is true only because Rome from 750 BC to 476AD went through being ruled at first by kings, then a republic in 509 BC, and Imperial Rome began eclectically with Augustud being granted that title in 27 BC.

Mouth of Truth

The Mouth of Truth began with anonymous tips, which were obviously abused and eventually reformed. Venice had its corruption. The Dige was for life, not one year. After he died, his estate was seized and investigated, and any uncovered corruption saw whatever assets were given to the Treasury.

Venice Bridge of Sorrows

I’m sure you also saw the famous “Bridge of Sighs” because once convicted of any crime, you crossed that bridge and went directly from the court to the prison or from their dungeon (from the torture room) to the court. Venice did not turn the other cheek.

Venetian Fleet

What he did not tell you is that Venice was a quasi-fascist State insofar as the entire fleet was owned by the government, but there was some private ownership.

Crusader Take Constantinople seige Eugene_Ferdinand_Victor_Delacroix

I’m unsure if he also told you that the Venetians were notorious pirates. Venice engaged in trade beginning from the late 8th Century, but this was the slave trade.  During this very early period, Venice was engaged in the selling of slaves to the Arabs from the Carolingian-Sclaveian wars. The name of the “Slavic” people means servitude or slave. In the pactum Lotharii of 840 between Venice and the Carolingian Empire, Venice was finally forced to reform and promised not to buy Christian slaves in the Empire and not to sell Christian slaves to Muslims.

Venice was also at the head of the Fourth Crusade, but instead of going after the Muslims, they laid siege to and conquered Byzantium. This is a painting of the “Latin Rulers” conquering Byzantium.

Latin Rulers titles

The Venetians even issued Their versions of Byzantine coins between 1204 and 1261AD.

Enrico Dandolo c. 1107–1205

Enrico Dandolo (c. 1107–1205) was the doge of Venice from 1192 until his death. He is remembered for his corruption and shrewdness. He is the Doge who killed Christians in the Sack of Constantinople. Dandolo died in 1205 in Constantinople and was buried at the Hagia Sophia, which today is the Blue Mosque.

Venice four horses

You probably visited the Cathedral in St Mark’s Square. The Turks stole St Mark’s body from Egypt, and the four horses you see stood on a chariot of Constantine the Great in Byzantium. They also liberated them.

Venetian Empire Coinage
Indian Imitation AV Zecchino 18th century

Nevertheless, Venice became a powerful maritime power. Thanks to its bankers, its coinage became the dominant coinage and was only eclipsed by Florence. The fact that its coinage was recognized in international trade much like the US dollar is today confirms that in India, after imitating Roman coins for hundreds of years, they imitated Venetian gold ducats as well.

VenetianDebt 4

We have an extensive database, and the debt crisis of Venice, which nobody seems to want to talk about, is included within it. The Venetian gold ducat, meaning the Duke’s coin, was probably the most famous, thanks to the commercial and maritime power of the Venetian Republic. However, before 1284, Venice used the coinage of Byzantium in trade – namely the Byzantine gold hyperpyra. The Venetians imported goods from the East and sold them at a profit north of the Alps.

Michael VIII AV Hyperpyron


Byzantine emperor Michael VIII Palaiologos (1261-1282) backed the revolt of the Sicilian Vespers in 1282, and the cost of that war forced him to debase the hyperpyron. This was just one more in a series of debasements, and the Great Council of Venice responded with its own coin of pure gold in 1284. The practice of debasement has preceded him.

1092 Byzantine Monetary Reform 1024x687

The major debasement of the Byzantine coinage had begun under Constantine IX Monomachos (1042-1055), with the purity of the gold coinage falling from 24 carats to 18 carats during his reign. In 1041, the year before he came to the throne, the  Histamenon Nomisma had a weight of about 3.96 grams with a gold content of about 90%. The very first year in 1042, the gold content was reduced to 87.5%. Constantine IX did not take his responsibilities as Emperor very seriously. He seems to have assumed that the wealth of the nation was his to spend as he desired.  He squandered money profoundly and this appears to have been the initial reason for the beginning of the debasement. The gold nomisma fell to 87%.

Minted in Venice from 1284 onwards, the Ducat competed with the florin, the reference currency of Florence, minted since 1252, which until then had dominated financial exchanges in Europe. It weighed 3,545 grams and was 98.6% fine gold, a very high purity for the time.

BancoGiro Venice

We saw banking start to rise in Northern Italy, especially during the 13th century. In 1282, the Republic of Venice organized most public finance activities under its Grain Office, which subsequently did a banking business on behalf of the government. It was the start of what we might call a Treasury today. It accepted time deposits from wealthy citizens as well as foreigners. Like the US Treasury, the Grain Office advanced loans to government departments and private enterprises. It was not until 1587 that Venice established a public bank on the Rialto. It would take until 1619 before it created a public Giro Bank, where funds were paid between accounts. That is what Giro means. I can write you a check, and we both have accounts at the same bank. Venice was too attached to trade, and the government sought to monopolize it. Venice clearly did not rival Genoa or Florence in capital management matters because it was essentially a quasi-fascist state where the government sought to engage in trade business, and thus, entrepreneurship was lacking. Interestingly, the city of Venice won an exclusion from the Sin of Usury and was allowed to trade with the Arabs, including the slave trade.

Venice was not a Papal State, and it often opposed the Vatican. Venice, Tuscany, and Modena formed an antipapal league to protect Parma, and France intervened. Peace was concluded in Venice on March 31st, 1644, and Pope Urban died soon afterward.

kleroterion Athenian Vote

So, while Venice is the longest Republic, the practice of one term of office and out was prevalent in Nothern Italy with republics in general. As far as the random selection of a representative, this was taken from Athens. Here is a Kleroterion where names would be selected at random to be a representative in government and even to serve on a jury.

Greek Philosophers

This is actually the root of why the three major Athenian philosophers were anti-democratic. The real objection was that these people were selected randomly and lacked experience, intellect, or any skill to be in charge of anything, no less the welfare of the people.

Gas Stove Warning Labels


Posted originally on Jun 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Gas Burner

Coming to a blue state near you, legislators would like to slap warning labels on gas-powered stoves. What is the warning? Lawmakers say that consumers should be aware that gas stoves release toxic fumes and are harmful to the environment. California, Illinois, and New York have all agreed to include labels that state gas stoves can cause pets and children to develop asthma, leukemia, and other illnesses.

Is there enough evidence to honestly state that gas stoves lead to health risks? I do not know a single person who has fallen ill due to a gas stove. We are not seeing restaurant workers dropping dead due to working near gas stoves. Even the World Health Organization, who is certainly not for the people, could not produce a study linking asthma to the release of nitrogen dioxide. The truth of the matter is that this is merely an attempt to promote the climate change agenda and eventual push to ban all fossil fuels.

Gas.Stove_.Schumer

Lawmakers and trade groups are battling over the precise language to use on these absurd warning labels. Numerous climate zealot organizations are actually filing lawsuits against companies such as GE for failing to warn the public of the climate and health risks associated with gas stoves.

The Democrats will say that conservatives are being hysterical about proposed bans on gas stoves, crying that these measures are small steps to inform the public so that they may make educated decisions. “This bill is just educating consumers on a potential hazard, and they can make their own choice and that’s what America is about,” New York Assemblymember Michaelle Solages stated. “We’re not banning gas stoves,” said California Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, who authored the state’s warning label proposal. “We’re just basically requiring them to be labeled, warning people about how to best use them with good ventilation.”

However, states have already passed laws to diminish the use of gas stoves and furnaces. New York’s Governor Kathy Hochul signed legislation that will reduce the number of gas appliances used for heating and cooking in the years to come. California is forcing new buildings to comply with climate change regulations and efficiency standards.

The US Department of Energy attempted to impose restrictions to make it increasingly difficult for Americans to purchase gas stoves, but Republicans overturned the measure. It will make it easier for lawmakers to regulate fossil fuel appliances if they can label them. One must wonder why lawmakers are hell-bent on eliminating America’s most utilized cooking method when our nation is plagued with problems.

Influence vs Cycles


Posted originally on Jun 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Timing Models

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but it certainly seems obvious just how many governments are using Socrates. The head of Serbia has come out and said we could be in World War III in three months. Orban came out and said NATO was “getting closer to war” every week, and he refused to participate in the alliance’s long-term plan to aid Ukraine, which Budapest has called a “crazy mission.

My question is, do you think Socrates influenced the time for this?

FD

ANSWER: I understand what you mean. That is actually the same theory as to why they put me in prison to shut me up. They always assume that events can be influenced by merely forecasting them. They believe in random walks because they are incapable of seeing the patterns. They try to manipulate society by themselves, attempting to steer us through their hoops just as they have lied to start every single war starting with Vietnam. Yet, when they have constantly been wrong, and their Keynesian Economic Models are failing, all I have ever heard is that I have manipulated the world economy only because the forecasts were correct. That proved it was not the model, but my influence.

NewYorker Cover

I have paid the price for my discovery, and so has my family. There are those who want to force the world to respond as they desire, and all I do is say here is the cycle, and this will be the outcome. They do not like that. This is the secret cycle as the New Yorker called it, because they do not teach cyclical theory in universities because we have to be able to manipulate the future.

I was turned off by formal education because, in real science and physics class, they said there is nothing that is random, but in economics class, I was told everything is random so they can manipulate us to create their perfect world. I figured someone was a liar.

Einsteing dice

I went with Einstein rather than the Marxists. Yes, at this stage, many governments, companies, and individuals around the world subscribe to our services. It is not that they do as the forecast states. Many who disagree still want to know what we are saying.

Many have come to realize that the forecasts are NOT my personal opinion. Real, intelligent people have realized that LONG-TERM forecasts are infallible because a single factor does not change the course of the trend. We are headed into war because we have chronic fiscal mismanagement, and they need war as a distraction and to provide the excuse to default, and then a new government gets to start fresh all over again. That becomes inevitable, but the trend is set in motion, and the government will NEVER reform to save the nation when they must relinquish power.

Short vs Long Term

Most people DO NOT comprehend how forecasting works or the global economy within which we live. There is the short-term NOISE, such as the share market may be up 300 points today and then down 500 tomorrow. Some wish to try to judge you based on that nonsense. The Global Market Watch has demonstrated that there are tens of thousands of patterns that make the short-term appear to be random – but nothing is random, and only a fool makes such an argument. All the numerous short-term trends combine into a single voice, and that resounds loudly through the hall of time and circumstance. It is like politics. Raise taxes, and you get civil unrest. Just look at most revolutions – they are over taxation. Yet politicians will increase taxes always to retain their position of power, and that inevitably leads to revolution. All of the daily ups and downs do NOT alter the long-term trend for that is set in motion that stretches back decades that cannot be altered.

ANAL Fractal

This is why our model is divided by TIME. You can be a 7-day bullish trend on the daily level that is no more than a minor reaction on the Weekly level. The long-term trend cannot be altered by a single event. It is forged in the furnace of life where everything from climate and war to economics and politics combine to make the trend. As they say, such people cannot see the forest because they are focused on a single tree.

MA War Cycle 2011 WEC

Back at the 2011 World Economic Conference in Philadelphia, which you can see in the video, I stood up and warned that the War Cycle would shift in 2014, and that was indeed on target with the Ukrainian Revolution – Maidan of 2014. But in 2013, still one year in advance, I warned:

“Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch”

Nero AE30 Bosporus

So many wars have occurred in Crimea since ancient times that the sum of all the parts enabled the computer to pinpoint Ukraine, where this would all begin. Here is a coin of Nero issued for his intervention into Crimea – the Bosporus at the time.

The LONG-TERM forecasts are much easier to do than where the Dow closes tomorrow. When I die, they should play one of my favorite songs – Sinatra’s My Way! I was lucky to see him live once at the Latin Casino in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. Indeed, I did it my way, and I would not change the past, for that is what has taught me what I know today.

Sinatra Frank 2

The Future According to the ECM


Posted originally on Jun 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Interview: 2020 Coup, Bitcoin


Posted origtinally on Jun 15, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Play the video above or click here to watch my most recent interview with Howe Street on “This Week in Money.”

Energy Bills to Rise Across US


Posted originally on Jun 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

ACairconditioning

The EPA is demanding that we abandon coal and fossil fuels without an alternative. The agency is seeking to shut down American power plants in favor of renewables. Energy prices are already reaching new highs. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) and the Center for Energy Poverty and Climate (CEPC) issued a warning that Americans should expect at least an 8% increase in energy bills this summer.

No, global warming is not the culprit. The hot summer is in line with cyclical weather patterns. America lost its ability to remain energy independent the very day Joe Biden entered the White House and signed away countless laws prohibiting production. The average AC bill was $661 over the summer months, according to CEPC and NEADA. These agencies believe those in the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific regions of the US will see a rise in energy prices by 12.2%, raising costs from June to September to $691 and $693. Those in the East South Central are expected to see a 10.1% hike over the same period and will pay around $774. East Noth Central is expected to see a 9.8% energy bill uptick ($581), while New England and West South Central will see rises of 5.3% ($760) and 1.8% ($581).

Naturally, these costs are on the low spectrum of estimates. Most of us pay far more to cool our homes over the summer. One must wonder why the EPA and Biden Administration believe it is appropriate to adhere to these climate change goals for Agenda 2030 when the average American is already struggling to afford cooling.

We are already paying for the slow switch from natural gas and coal to renewables. Energy companies have been forced to gradually make the switch, and soon, there will be no alternative. Once they completely banish fossil fuels, cooling one’s home will become a luxury. Anyone can look at their monthly billing to see how much their heating and cooling expenses have risen on a monthly and annual basis and it is far beyond 8%. Personally, I am seeing a rise of around 30%.

This is one of an array of basic living essentials that have multiplied in price in recent years under the Biden Administration. We allowed our leader to cripple our infrastructure and ability to remain energy independent. We are currently allowing him to sign even more restrictive pieces of legislation that will only force us to stretch our dollars thin to maintain our current lifestyles. Is anything Build Back Better yet?

Save American Power Plants


Posted originally on Jun 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Climate zero co2

The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) has introduced “Clean Power Plan 2.0” to eliminate new construction on natural gas-fired power plants and force coal-powered plants to close. This is part of the Biden-Harris plan to adhere to future net zero target emissions to combat the fabricated lie of climate change at the expense of the American people. This measure could completely decimate America’s coal industry and spike energy costs at a time when the average person has nothing left to spend.

These agencies have usurped all power away from Congress and have abandoned democracy. No one specifically voted for these measures. But we have an agency, under Biden, who can change the way the nation’s entire infrastructure is powered with the passing of a pen.

Senator Joe Manchin (I-WV), Chairman of the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, has been fighting with a group of 44 senators to overturn this measure. “This new power plant rule isn’t just another bureaucratic maneuver in this administration’s strategy to end the fossil fuel industry by a thousand cutsit’s a calculated knockout punch to the coal and natural gas industry. Make no mistake, other sources of energy are not yet ready to pick up the slack in our power system that will be created by this regulation,” Manchin explained, calling this maneuver an attempt to garner votes before the election. Simply put – the technology to power the nation on clean energy is not yet available. We cannot abandon fossil fuels without facing extreme repercussions.

Those who support the measure claim Manchin is simply from coal country West Virginia and has investments in the coal industry. They do not realize that the infrastructure to power the US on clean energy is absent and these measures will NOT help the people. It will only lead to increased costs on the basic essentials and cause the cost of living to spike.

There are over 200 coal power plants across the US that power around 20% of the nation. Coal accounted for over half of electricity in the US in the 2000s and, while more financially friendly, has been gradually phasing out. However, most of these plants were replaced by natural gas plants but that is still not enough for the climate change zealots at the EPA. Around 40% of the nation is powered by natural gas and plays a crucial role in America’s electricity generation. The EPA is now attempting to curtail 60% of America’s current power in the name of the globalist climate change agenda.

As of 2022, wind-powered electricity accounted for 10% of America’s electricity and 48% of all renewables. Hydropower comes in second, accounting for 6.2% of the nation’s energy as of 2022, while solar provides about 3.4% of America’s energy. There have been numerous issues connecting wind power to the overall grid, not to mention the environmental issues it causes to wildlife. Weather has a major impact on these structures as well as they are prone to freeze during extreme weather events. Even the experts have admitted that they could not use wind to power even half of America at this point in time without new technology.