Tag Archives: CIS

Jun 6 2023

New York Times Gains Insider Information on Twitter Revenue, Expanded Financials Look Worse Than Former Estimates


Posted originally on the CTH on June 5, 2023 | Sundance 

The New York Times has gained insider information on the current advertising revenue for the social media platform Twitter. [Article Here]  Ignoring the nonsense narrative engineering and just focusing on the data itself, the revenue side for Twitter is half what we previously estimated.  This makes the overlay for decisions on platform content even more stark.

According to the data, ad revenue for the month of April was a lackluster $88 million.  That’s a pace of just over $1 billion a year.  With a pre-Musk operating expense of $4.5 billion, and pre-Musk revenue at $4 billion cited by the Twitter owner as the backdrop, here’s the outlook.

Assuming post Musk labor cost reductions saved $500 million, a decline in revenue to $1 billion/yr would be a $3.0 billion deficit, to wit you would need to add the $1.5 billion in debt service as part of the investor buyout structure.

That puts Twitter into a $4.5 billion loss ballpark per year.

This is the high end of what Musk previously estimated in public statements.  Now we see why.

(New York Times) – Twitter’s U.S. advertising revenue for the five weeks from April 1 to the first week of May was $88 million, down 59 percent from a year earlier, according to an internal presentation obtained by The New York Times.  (read more)

$1 billion per year in advertising revenue is a whopping 75% loss from the claimed $4 billion in revenue before the Musk purchase.  Perhaps the Fidelity estimate of company value at $15 billion is closer to reality.

If the value of Twitter has dropped to the $15 billion level, that means almost all of the $30 billion in personal equity Musk put into the company has been lost.

Current investor debt is $12.5 billion, with $1.5 billion in debt service/yr. A valuation of $15 billion would only leave Musk with around $2.5 billion in equity position.  If the valuation is accurate, Musk personally would have lost around $27.5 billion in this Twitter platform purchase.

The last time I outlined the Twitter financial position, several people took exception to the data as shared.  However, the data is from Elon Musk himself, and I will again post the video at the bottom of the article.

Revenue is now Elon Musk’s #1 priority.  All other platform decisions are going through the prism of financial viability.

Twitter CEO Elon Musk has provided some convincing commentary about his willingness to forgo revenue in order to retain “free speech.” However, more recently he has qualified that outlook by saying, “Freedom of speech is not the same as freedom of reach.”  Musk noting Twitter will block, remove, censor, shadow ban, deboost, downrank and stop content from amplifying based on the determination of those in charge of Twitter content.

This controlled “freedom of reach” perspective, which is really shadow-banning in practice, is generally accepted and now admitted.  Against this backdrop, it becomes important to understand the priorities of the platform to understand the guidelines of the platform.  Within this context the financials are key to understanding what elements are included within “approved content.” {GO DEEP}

Twitter is now a private company, therefore understanding the financials of Twitter is a little more challenging than when they were required to post their financial statements publicly.  However, Elon Musk gave an interview with the Babylon Bee yesterday and revealed some of the internal financial challenges. [VIDEO HERE]  I am going to summarize the status of the Twitter financial position according to what Musk himself revealed.

♦ Twitter was initially purchased by Musk and his investors for around $44 billion.  The company now estimates its value around $20 billion. Last week, the mutual funds giant Fidelity, which owns shares in Twitter, valued the company at $15 billion. Bottom line, Musk grossly overpaid.

♦ Musk put roughly $30 billions of his own net worth into the purchase and financed the rest.

♦ Current outstanding debt on the financing for the purchase is around $12.5 billion. Per Musk statement.

♦ Current debt service, interest on the loans (from investors), is roughly $1.5 billion/yr.  $120.5 million per month for debt service.  Per Musk statement.

♦ Previous revenue (when public) was roughly $4 billion/yr.  Twitter was generally breaking even.

♦ Advertising revenue, as a result of changes in industry in combination with concerns about Twitter, are “half” what they were during the acquisition phase, per Musk statement.  That puts current advertising revenue around $2 billion/yr. Per NYT report that’s now $1 billion/yr.

♦ Per conversation, current status of Twitter is -$3 billion/yr and could be as high as -$4 to 5 billion/yr.

The NYT revenue leak now makes the top side of this scale make sense.  If $4 billion in revenue was generally the breakeven point (before acquisition), and now they have $2 billion $1 billion in revenue and $1.5 billion in additional debt service [as they trim operational costs (including labor) to offset].

♦♦ For the bottom line to be an operational loss of $3 to $5 billion (est) per year, Twitter is generally losing around $300 million per month.

♦ There is only so much Tesla stock Musk can sell to support Twitter.  He has limits. Per conversation.

♦ Twitter has around $1 billion in liquid cash available. Per conversation.  With a burn rate of $300+ million a month.

Twitter is in locked contracts with AWS and Google cloud services through 2025 at roughly $300 million per year for both [AWS $100 million, Goog $200 million].

Twitter Blue subscriptions are around 180,000 users, paying $11/mo.  That’s around $2 million a month; pittance in comparison to what he needs.

There’s your prism for platform content!

Elon Musk needs revenue desperately.

Twitter urgently needs advertising revenue.

Without revenue or acquisition of another platform (with assets) to offset the current status of Twitter, it is only a matter of time before some form of bankruptcy.   [Note, Twitter investors are backstopped with Tesla/SpaceX as collateral against default.]

The tightrope… Elon Musk must appease the Google advertising control agents and adhere to content rules and regulation (DEI etc.) in order to maximize his revenue.  That’s where Linda Yaccarino comes in as a critical player.

Bottom line, Musk has to make decisions through one prism, THE ECONOMICS.  Musk’s decision-making, pro freedom or not, is constrained by this financial dependency. Hence, a lot of the platform censorship elements remain (including some personnel) and now the outreach to appoint Google/WEF approved Linda Yaccarino in an effort to enhance the revenue.

When you are perplexed about Musk decision making….  THERE’S YOUR ANSWER.

The recent relationship between Elon Musk and the Rupert Murdoch media enterprise, now makes even more sense.

Musk discusses the financials:

Jun 6 2023

Overnight, the Western Press Radically Rewrote the Truth About Ukraine to Serve Biden’s Endless War Policies | SYSTEM UPDATE #92


Glenn Greenwald Posted originally on Rumble Jun 5, 7:04 pm EDT

Jun 4 2023

Can Trump End the Ukraine War in 24 hrs?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Jun 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

This war could be ended in 24 hours.

(1) stop all money going to Ukraine,

(2) threaten to freeze all their assets,

(3) threaten to remove Ukraine from SWIFT,

(4) Order Ukraine to honor the Minsk Agreement.

To Russia:

(1) Lift all sanctions

(2) No NATO training or weapons for Ukraine

(3) Ukraine will not be part of NATO

(4) Agree to pay for the damage to Nord Stream

Ukraine is an untrustworthy government. Their end goal has ALWAYS been to destroy Russia. They were the first state to pull out of Russia and pitched the destruction of the Soviet Union to other member states. Ukraine was NEVER its own country. It became a country and achieved its sovereignty but that was never good enough. They had to start the civil war against the Donbas. If you want this war to continue, then grab a gun and go fight for this most corrupt head of state probably in the entire world.

The facts are clear. Ukraine launched what it called Special Operations and began the civil war attacking the Russian civilians in the Donbas calling them terrorists because they wanted separation from Ukraine which has outlawed their language and even outlawed their religion ordering all churches to be subservient to their propped-up Patriarch – not the traditional one in Moscow. This is sort of the French seizing the Vatican and moving it to Avignon. This was their response to the Minsk Agreement where Ukraine was to separate and adopt a change to their Constitution. Ukraine has discriminated against anyone who is not Ukrainian and that included Hungarian and Polish living in Ukraine. That has been their legacy from Nazi Germany.

The Ukrainians are fighting for the territory that was never theirs. They want Russia out, along with all other minorities they hate and do not trust. Make no mistake about it, if Russia loses, the Ukrainians will massacre all Russians in the Donbas territory. The West ignores the fact that the Ukrainians carried out a massacre of ethnic Russians who lived in Odessa as soon as their 2014 Revolution and that is what started this entire civil war that the Western Press will not address.

The 2014 Massacre of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in Odessa where they killed them grabbing them on the streets was a Neo-Nazi event. That was the turning point. It revealed that the Donbas had to separate for the Neo-Nazis wanted their death, not their submission. That began the civil war. They set fire to the building and burned all the Russian-speaking Ukrainians alive. For the first time in history, an organized massacre of civilians was carried out and even filmed by numerous people. This has been documented in extraordinary detail and the Neo-Nazis did not even fear of any negative consequences in world opinion.

If we do NOT abandon Ukraine and force them to live peacefully, they will engulf the entire world. They will use the F16s and attack the Russian Fleet and be prepared to send your children or yourself to go fight for the liar and greedy corrupt politician – Zelensky. We should die for this corruption? Honor the Minsk Agreement and it is over in 24 hours.

Oh yes. Throw in a pair of diamond-studded high heels. That may clinch the deal.

Jun 4 2023

Why the United States Will Fall


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jun 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

This is why the United States is dead. It can no longer stand united and, like Ukraine, we too will simply have to split. There should be a property swap where Democrats leave the Red States and go to the Blue States and vice versa. This is how empires always die. They collapse from an internal division that eats away at them from within like cancer. Hayley Williams has only shown how she is brainwashed into thinking that abortion is a woman’s right when it was a Gates-Rockafeller ploy to further eugenics and reduce the population of minorities.

Justice Ginsberg was a woman’s activist. She explained that Roe v Wade was not about women’s rights. It was about eugenics. So they get women to agree to war and whatever because all they can focus on is abortion which was a lie, to begin with.

You cannot allow one side to force their beliefs upon the other.  Civilization can ONLY function when everyone benefits. As Lincoln said, united we stand, divided we fall.

Jun 3 2023

The Great Awakening


Armstrong Economic Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jun 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Jun 3 2023

Interview: The Fall of Western Civilization


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jun 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Fall of Western Civilization with Martin Armstrong

Watch the video above or click here to view the latest interview.

Martin Armstrong returns to the Outer Limits of Inner Truth Podcast to discuss: what Socrates is saying about the 2024 election, the likelihood that CBDCs will not succeed based on what happened in Africa, the fall of Western Civilization, where the elites want to take humanity, and how to preserve your liberty in these trying times.

Jun 2 2023

Musk Outlines the Financials of Twitter – Platform Content Is Determined Through the Prism of Revenue


Posted originally on the CTH on June 1, 2023 | Sundance 

Twitter CEO Elon Musk has provided some convincing commentary about his willingness to forgo revenue in order to retain “free speech.” However, more recently he has qualified that outlook by saying, “Freedom of speech is not the same as freedom of reach.”  Musk noting Twitter will block, remove, censor, shadow ban, deboost, downrank and stop content from amplifying based on the determination of those in charge of Twitter content.

This controlled “freedom of reach” perspective, which is really shadow-banning in practice, is generally accepted and now admitted.  Against this backdrop, it becomes important to understand the priorities of the platform to understand the guidelines of the platform.  Within this context the financials are key to understanding what elements are included within “approved content.” {GO DEEP}

Twitter is now a private company, therefore understanding the financials of Twitter is a little more challenging than when they were required to post their financial statements publicly.  However, Elon Musk gave an interview with the Babylon Bee yesterday and revealed some of the internal financial challenges. [VIDEO HERE]  I am going to summarize the status of the Twitter financial position according to what Musk himself revealed.

♦ Twitter was initially purchased by Musk and his investors for around $44 billion.  The company now estimates its value around $20 billion.  Musk overpaid.

♦ Musk put roughly $30 billions of his own net worth into the purchase and financed the rest.

♦ Current outstanding debt on the financing for the purchase is around $12.5 billion. Per Musk statement.

♦ Current debt service, interest on the loans (from investors), is roughly $1.5 billion/yr.  $120.5 million per month for debt service.  Per Musk statement.

♦ Previous revenue (when public) was roughly $4 billion/yr.  Twitter was generally breaking even.

♦ Advertising revenue, as a result of changes in industry in combination with concerns about Twitter, are “half” what they were during the acquisition phase, per Musk statement.  That puts current advertising revenue around $2 billion/yr.

♦ Per conversation, current status of Twitter is -$3 billion/yr and could be as high as -$4 to 5 billion/yr.  This makes complete sense if $4 billion in revenue was generally the breakeven point (before acquisition), and now they have $2 billion in revenue and $1.5 billion in additional debt service [as they trim operational costs (including labor) to offset].

♦♦ For the bottom line to be an operational loss of $3 to $5 billion (est) per year, Twitter is generally losing around $300 million per month.

♦ There is only so much Tesla stock Musk can sell to support Twitter.  He has limits. Per conversation.

♦ Twitter has around $100 million/mo in liquid cash available. Per conversation.

Twitter is in locked contracts with AWS and Google cloud services through 2025 at roughly $300 million per year for both [AWS $100 million, Goog $200 million].

There’s your prism for platform content!

Elon Musk needs revenue desperately.

Twitter urgently needs advertising revenue.

Without revenue or acquisition of another platform (with assets) to offset the current status of Twitter, it is only a matter of time before bankruptcy.   [Note, Twitter investors are backstopped with Tesla/SpaceX as collateral against default.]

The tightrope… Elon Musk must appease the Google advertising control agents and adhere to content rules and regulation (DEI etc.) in order to maximize his revenue.  That’s where Linda Yaccarino comes in as a critical player.

Bottom line, Musk has to make decisions through one prism, THE ECONOMICS.  Musk’s decision-making, pro freedom or not, is constrained by this financial dependency. Hence, a lot of the platform censorship elements remain (including some personnel) and now the outreach to appoint Google/WEF approved Linda Yaccarino in an effort to enhance the revenue.

When you are perplexed about Musk decision making….  THERE’S YOUR ANSWER.

[Support CTH Research Here]

Jun 1 2023

Debt Ceiling & War Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted May 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

When we look at our Computer’s timing arrays for the 30-year bond, it did show a target last week with a Directional Change. So far the market has held that low and has been consolidating. When we look at the Array, we do not see a crisis with the debt ceiling. However, the next Fed Meeting is July 25-26 and when we look at our Array, we see that is when there is a Panic Cycle.

There is NOBODY in Washington who is ever interested in actually paying off the debt. Even AOC has come out and said there should be no debt ceiling – just print until the cows come home, but that may be a problem when Bill Gates and the WEF want to kill all the cows.

In that regard, we are only making things chaotic. The government should just print the money and not borrow in the first place for they are competing with the private sector which is the ONLY real creator of worthwhile jobs.

Meanwhile, the Neocons are hoping to start a war with massive air drills in Europe going to even Church, which they do not believe in God, and lighting candles just in case he does exist to please make Russia attack. If not, hell, they will just say Russia attacked as they lied and claimed that Vietnam attacked us and Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. War is on the horizon and that is the MOST inflationary influence of all.

Jun 1 2023

After Contempt Threat, FBI Director Wray Admits Oversight Whistleblower Report on Shady Biden $5 million Payment Does Exist


Posted originally on the CTH on May 31, 2023 | Sundance 

An interesting series of updates to the FBI whistleblower case of Joe Biden taking a $5 million bribe payment which now looks to have originated in Ukraine.

The background claim is pretty basic. A whistleblower approached congress stating the FBI had a report, an unclassified FD-1023, detailing a conversation with a ‘confidential human source’ (CHS) that outlined Vice President Joe Biden taking a $5 million payment from a foreign national to affect a U.S. policy decision.  The FBI agent responsible for investigating the CHS claim was FBI Supervisory Intelligence Analyst Brian Auten, a sketchy character from the Trump-Russia probe.

The investigative events took place in June and July 2020 during the presidential election year.  The claim is that FBI Supervisory Intelligence Analyst Auten reportedly buried the CHS allegation saying it could not be corroborated, and then wrote an assessment that it was Russian disinformation.  However, the FBI investigative team didn’t see any effort by any FBI member to substantiate it.  Hence a whistleblower, with specific knowledge of the details in the allegation, surfaces and tells congress the FBI is hiding the FD-1023 that outlines the confidential human source allegation of bribery.

Congress requested the FD-1023, the FBI refused to provide it.  House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer then set a compliance deadline while he coordinated with Senator Chuck Grassley.  The FBI still refused to turn it over, saying they would neither confirm nor deny the FD-1023 existence, and said releasing any information like that would potentially compromise Confidential Human Sources (CHS’s).  The proverbial sources and methods excuse.

Yesterday, James Comer told FBI Director Chris Wray he would be held in contempt of congress for refusing the provide the letter to oversight.

Today, Christopher Wray admitted the existence of the FD-1023 and told Rep Comer and Senator Grassley he would let them come to FBI headquarters to look at it.

The FBI is still claiming the allegations have no way to be substantiated or corroborated.  However, there is a very strong possibility, based on records that Comer and Grassley have received from subpoenas for Biden banking information, the substantiation documents are already in the hands of congress.

WASHINGTON—House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) today issued the following statements after their discussion with FBI Director Christopher Wray about producing to Congress the unclassified, FBI-generated record alleging a criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Joe Biden and a foreign national.

“Today, FBI Director Wray confirmed the existence of the FD-1023 form alleging then-Vice President Biden engaged in a criminal bribery scheme with a foreign national. However, Director Wray did not commit to producing the documents subpoenaed by the House Oversight Committee. While Director Wray – after a month of refusing to even acknowledge that the form existed – has offered to allow us to see the documents in person at FBI headquarters, we have been clear that anything short of producing these documents to the House Oversight Committee is not in compliance with the subpoena. If the FBI fails to hand over the FD-1023 form as required by the subpoena, the House Oversight Committee will begin contempt of Congress proceedings,” said Chairman Comer.

“While the FBI has apparently leaked classified information to the news media in recent weeks, jeopardizing its own human sources, it continues to treat Congress like second class citizens by refusing to provide a specific unclassified record. Director Wray confirmed what my whistleblowers have told me pursuant to legally protected disclosures: the FBI-generated document is real, but the bureau has yet to provide it to Congress in defiance of a legitimate congressional subpoena. This failure comes with consequences,” Senator Grassley said. (read more)