Trump’s Federal Freeze – Shrinking the Public Sector


Posted originally on Jan 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Armstrong on Government

President Donald Trump implemented a widespread freeze on federal loans and grants, ordering all agencies this week to “temporarily pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance.” He was forced to back off after a federal judge halted some of the freeze. The public sector has been multiplying in recent years to the point that there are thousands of agencies whose true purpose are unknown. While many view the act as extreme, public sector growth has become detrimental to our economy and one must determine what exactly the government is funding.

As Adam Smith wrote in “Wealth of Nations”:

“Like an improvident spendthrift, whose pressing occasions will not allow him to wait for the regular payment of his revenue, the state is in the constant practice of borrowing of its own factors and agents, and of paying interest for the use of its own money.”

The wealth of a nation is composed of more than money or gold, for the original idea of “money” did not embrace the concept of true wealth. Money is merely our mental measure of wealth. Cultures in different parts of the world all conceive of money but it is merely how they measure this universal concept of wealth.

There is only one constant and that is the greater the size of government, the lower the production of national wealth. Therefore, the higher the percentage of a nation’s work force is employed by the public sector, the lower its real national product. We saw this in Argentina as of late. Of course, government wishes to include itself in the GDP calculation and it counts government workers twice in many countries. It adds total government spending and adds that to total personal income. By doing this they count all government employees twice for they do not back it out of the total government spending. So we have bogus statistics in GDP as well for the economy appears better when government hires rather than the public sector. That is why we will see unemployment rise under Trump but in all actuality that figure will not be indicative of the overall health of our economy.

Now, Trump specifically is asking for more information on 2,600 programs to determine their legitimacy. Biden implemented a slew of DEI iniatives and programs that do nothing but TAKE from our economy. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) sent the aforementioned companies the following questions:

  • Does this program provide funding that is implicated by the directive to end discriminatory programs, including illegal DEI and “diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility” (DEIA) mandates, policies, programs, preferences, and activities, under whatever name they appear, or other directives in the same EO, including those related to “environmental justice” programs or “equity-related” grants?
  • Does this program promote gender ideology?
  • Does this program promote or support in any way abortion or other related activities identified in the Hyde Amendment?

“It means no more funding for the green new scam that has cost American taxpayers tens of billions of dollars,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday at her first news briefing. “It means no more funding for transgenderism and wokeness across our federal bureaucracy and agencies.” The new press secretary, who actually responds to questions, said it is “the responsibility of this president and this administration to be good stewards of taxpayer dollars.” Welfare aid programs are not vanishing, rather, the government is reevaluating its spending to best direct dollars.

Organizations promoting woke gender ideology, DEI, and the green new deal will be the first to go but a significant cut is needed to restore some order. The fear mongering about Trump eliminating Medicaid and food assistance programs are unfounded. The new administration must determine what agencies are legitimate and eliminating services that do not add to our society in any meaningful way is the first step.

Argentina is an excellent example of how quickly an economy can recover when we remove socialistic programs. There were 341,477 people in the public sector on government payroll when President Milei took office, and his aim is to eliminate 70,000 needless positions. From December 2023 to October 2024, Argentina reduced the national administration was reduced by 10% and state-run firms decreased by 12.6%. Reducing the national administration alone saved the government $3.82 billion in the short-term, not accounting for future payouts, additional staffing, or pensions. Yet he began by eliminating services that were simply unnecessary.

Milei.PublicSector

Milei first eliminated useless agencies such as the Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Labor, and Ministry of Social Development. In his words, Argentina WAS a poor country that could not afford these departments that do absolutely nothing to improve the nation’s economic conditions. No one noticed when he reduced the cabinet by 50%, but the economy certainly took note and posted its first budget surplus in 123 years this December.

“The deficit was the root of all our evils — without it, there’s no debt, no emission, no inflation. Today, we have a sustained fiscal surplus, free of default, for the first time in 123 years. This historic achievement came from the greatest adjustment in history and reducing monetary emission to zero. A year ago, a degenerate printed 13% of GDP to win an election, fueling inflation. Today, monetary emission is a thing of the past,” Milei proudly announced.

Yes, other factors contributed to Argentina’s recent success, but moving away from socialism and ever-growing social programs was paramount. Socialism NEVER works but world leaders refuse to learn from the past.

Under Biden, we saw manufacturing flee the US. The jobs reports often looked promising but they failed to recognize the rising public sector that can never contribute to GDP. We have seen what happens when governments grow to disproportionate figures and it never ends well. The longest reigning empire, the Roman Empire, fell as a direct result of an oversized public sector that bankrupted Rome. The private sector produces economic growth, while government is a public servant consuming the wealth generated by others.

Deep State

The Deep State is more than a swamp; it is an ocean. It is so deeply rooted that I wish Trump all the best, but I am not sure he will be able to root out the core corruption. That will probably take a sovereign default, and history warns that a revolution will often follow. This time, the government is entrenched in bribing the people to retain power, giving them free food and circuses, and they will be the government alone, as they used to say in Rome.

Free Speech in Germany Only if You Agree With Government


Posted originally on Jan 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Oliver Wendell Holmes Young

Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. made it clear what Free Speech was in Schenk v. U.S., 249 U.S. 47 (1919) (1919), ruling that a restriction is legitimate only if the speech in question poses a “clear and present danger”—i.e., a risk or threat to safety or to other public interests that is serious and imminent. Yelling fire in a crowded movie theatre is not free speech. There have been many cases involving freedom of speech and of the press over the years, and what is taking place in Europe is a rejection of free speech. In Britain, they sentenced a man to 20 months in prison for saying he was tired of paying taxes to support migrants who then raped their children. They are defining much that simply disagrees with government policy as “hate speech,” which is expressing a political opinion.

Hugo Black Supreme Court Justice 1937–1971

In Everson v. Board of Education, 330 U.S. 1 (1947), Justice Hugo L. Black on the Supreme Court traced the origins of the First Amendment to a bill establishing religious freedom that Jefferson drafted and introduced in the Virginia General Assembly in 1779, but was finally passed only in 1786 demanded by James Madison. This had three main sections prohibiting compulsory religion requirements of any kind, maintaining that men were free to express their opinions on religion and choose how or if to worship. That was a fundamental right as citizens and it was the foundation as a natural right of mankind. Justice Black wrote:

“Yet we are free to declare, and do declare, that the rights hereby asserted are of the natural rights of mankind, and that, if any act shall be hereafter passed to repeal the present or to narrow its operation, such act will be an infringement of natural right.”

John Marshall Harlan II 1955 1971 Supreme Court

Justice John Marshall Harlan, whose grandfather had been on the Supreme Court from 1877 to 1911, delivered the decision in Cohen v. California, 403 U.S. 15 (1971) where the state criminalized the word “f–k” being used in political protests against the government. He made it clear that the State may not, consistently with the First and Fourteenth Amendments, make the simple public display of this single four-letter expletive a criminal offense. Starmer in Britain imprisoning people for merely saying migrants raped their children was a criminal offense and sentenced a man to 20 months in prison.

Freedom of speech includes the rights to:

  • Not to speak (specifically, the right not to salute the flag).
    West Virginia Board of Education v. Barnette, 319 U.S. 624 (1943).
  • Of students to wear black armbands to school to protest a war (“Students do not shed their constitutional rights at the schoolhouse gate.”).
    Tinker v. Des Moines, 393 U.S. 503 (1969).
  • To contribute money (under certain circumstances) to political campaigns.
    Buckley v. Valeo, 424 U.S. 1 (1976).
  • To engage in symbolic speech (e.g., burning the flag in protest).
    Texas v. Johnson, 491 U.S. 397 (1989); United States v. Eichman, 496 U.S. 310 (1990).
EU OMG

What you MUST understand is that the EU is collapsing. The failure to ever consolidate the debts has led to (1) disparity among members, and (2) the Euro has never been able to replace the dollar, lacking a unified debt market to attract capital. The more desperate the financial crisis unfolds in Europe between war and debt, the more authoritarian the government will become. This is why Scholtz has the audacity to claim Germany has free speech as long as you are not their opposition. You cannot have free speech and ban the political speech of your opposition.

2025_01_29_18_43_03_Japanese_investors_dump_Eurozone_bonds_at_fastest_pace_in_a_decade

With all the talk of war in Europe, we are starting to see a massive exodus of European investment by foreigners. The Japanese dumped a record $53 billion worth of Euro investments, and we see the same from European investors trying to get out before capital controls coincide with the first bullet fired. The European leaders are braindead. They cannot grasp that the harder they beat their war drums, the more smart money will get out of the EU before it is too late. The Euro has been in an overall bear market decline since 2008.

Euro Swiss Q 1 1 25

Senator Whitehouse Demands RFK Jr Support: “Forced Mandatory Vaccinations” or No Confirmation Support


Posted originally on the CTH on January 29, 2025 | Sundance

If this is indeed representative of half the country, then we are dealing with half the country having a severe mental illness.

Sheldon Whitehouse tells RFK Jr during his confirmation hearing today that support for forced, mandatory vaccinations is required as the baseline for supporting his nomination to HHS Secretary.   The moment comes at 00:50 of Whitehouse reading his script.  The intensity and vitriol behind the statement is a testimony to the scale of money from Big Pharma to these senators.  WATCH:

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Salty response below…

Former Senator Bob Menendez Sentenced to 11-Years in Prison


Posted originally on the CTH on January 29, 2025 | Sundance

There’s no sympathy for Bob Menendez at all; however, all things considered, he was convicted of doing the same thing that every Senator on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee does, and the same thing that Joe Biden did for decades… Sell the influence of their office to foreign countries. They all do it.

The difference with Senator Bob Menendez was only that he was so open about doing it, and he dropped all the pretenses that usually provide the plausible deniability factor. Today the judge sentenced him to 11-years in federal prison.

WASHINGTON – […] A jury in July found Menendez, along with Edgewater developer Fred Daibes and Egyptian American businessman Wael Hana, guilty on all charges related to the bribery scheme. Daibes was sentenced to seven years in prison and fined $1.75 million. Hana was sentenced to a little more than eight years in prison and fined $1.3 million. Menendez was not fined for his part in the corruption.

The trial hinged on accusations that Menendez used his political might to influence criminal investigations involving the two businessmen and helped direct billions in U.S. aid to Egypt to bolster their business dealings. In exchange, Menendez and his wife, Nadine Arslanian Menendez, received gifts including gold bars, cash and luxury cars.

Menendez, 71, represented New Jersey for more than 18 years in the U.S. Senate. He resigned in August after the convictions. (read more)

Has the World Lost Its Collective Mind?


Posted originally on Jan 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

2004_Why_Antarctica_will_soon_be_the_i_only_i_place_to_live_literally_Environm

What is astonishing is all the outrageous forecasts about global warming and how the entire earth will be destroyed. We will all be forced to flee to Antarctica was so absurd, yet the press loved to push this nonsense out so our government would panic, raise taxes, and shift money to fake analysis to pretend they are doing something all because it was in the press. Here are two stories on that pretend theory from 2004 and 2015. You would think it has been 20 years, and we would have seen something. Instead, we have the coldest winter in more than 50 years, so they claim it is all caused by driving to work or the kids to school.

2015 Climate fleeing to Antartica

I am surprised that Biden didn’t hand Klaus Schwab the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his to get the virus going and tell us how wonderful lockdowns were because they were quiet. The objective was to shut down small local businesses and end commuting, so now we have an office space crisis that will hit the economy as people have been forced to work virtually. This was all part of the climate change agenda.

2022 Germanys Greens Pro War DER_SPIEGEL

The German Greens now want war to conquer Russia to shut down its fossil fuel production, which is the largest in the world. The Greens now want bloodshed to save the planet from climate change. What used to be up is now down, and it seems like the entire world has lost its collective mind. NATO bombed the hell out of former Yugoslavia to bring peace. Napoleon and Hitler sought to conquer Europe to end all wars. It’s incredible how people justify taking the opposite action to create some fictional noble cause.

UK Council Tax Hike – Britain’s Glory Days are Gone


Posted originally on Jan 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Britain Big Ben Flag

Revolutions have begun over less. UK lawmakers plan to raise taxes on over four million households to cover a portion of their fiscal mismanagement. Homeowners may see their bills raise by a full 25% in certain areas as councils plan to use a loophole in the law to exploit the people.

Local government is not allowed to raise taxes over 4.99% without an election and approved referendum. To bypass the law and will of the people, councils plan to invoke Section 114 to declare themselves bankrupt. Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government Angela Rayner of the Labour Party would need to approve the measure. Rayner has been pushing to eliminate local government authority. Rules for thee but not for me apply to Rayner as she managed to avoid paying taxes on her own home sale by looking for a loophole and simply feigning or, more likely, admitting stupidity.

The Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead in Berkshire, Lib Dem-run, is naturally pushing for the largest increase of 25%. They claim it is a wealthy area and the people can afford to pay over five times the usual maximum. The party’s North Somerset Council believes homeowners should face a 15% penalty as well. Labour-run Bradford council pleaded with the UK government last year for a bail out worth £220 million, but even that was not sufficient as they are seeking to increase taxes by 15%. The party’s authority in Birmingham would like to raise taxes for a second consecutive year to 9.99%. Eight authorities in total are seeking to abuse the legal loophole of Section 114 to rob citizens.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government attempted to deflect any responsibility. “Councils are ultimately responsible for setting their own council tax, and we will put taxpayers at the forefront of any decision,” they told the Daily Mail.

Did I mention that these tax hikes will NOT cover each council deficit? Governments are absolutely ravenous for funding and do not care how hard the people are hit.

I recall when Maggie Thatcher was under fire for proposing a poll or head tax whereby each taxpayer would pay the same fixed sum dictated by the local authority. I warned Maggie about imposing a poll tax. She thought the people would take the supervisory role as a check on the government if they had skin in the game. But I knew from history it would not unfold as she had hoped.

In Britain overall, aside from this proposal, the tax hike as a percentage of gross domestic product to a record 38.2% will be the highest in modern British history, resulting in government spending not seen outside an emergency or war. While he claims that the additional £40 billion ($80 billion) is to invest in the future, it will undermine the future of Britain.

Britain UK GDP Y 6 4 24

Our computer has been projecting that the British pound will collapse and penetrate the 1985 low as we move into the years ahead. Last year saw a Double-Directional Change on the yearly level for the pound, and we are looking at an unprecedented economic decline into 2026. This is what the LEFT refuses ever to comprehend. They are Marxists until the end – Britain’s glory days are gone.

Tariff Threats Successful – Colombia to Accept Returned Citizens


Posted originally on Jan 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Immigrants

Tariffs never work, but threats often do when it is known they will be carried out. Donald Trump threatened Colombia with massive tariffs, sanctions, and travel bans if the nation refused to take back thousands of illegal Colombian migrants. Within ONE HOUR, Colombia agreed to all terms and conditions.

Two repatriation flights to Colombia were denied entry, leading Trump to take action. The initial threat would have raised tariffs by 25% instantly, with tariffs doubling to 50% within a week if the order was not restored. Trump threatened to place numerous sanctions on Colombia and certain politicians. Colombian officials and allies would have had their visas removed immediately. “These measures are just the beginning. We will not allow the Colombian Government to violate its legal obligations with regard to the acceptance and return of the criminals they forced into the United States,” Trump warned.

The Colombian government responded within an hour. “The Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay. Based on this agreement, the fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions will be held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement,” the White House reported. Visa sanctions will remain in place “until the first planeload of Colombian deportees is successfully returned.”

Colombia’s President Petro replied to Trump’s initial threats by claiming the US president would attempt to invoke a coup against him. Petro called the US “boring” and Trump a racist who considered him “an inferior race.” Petro spoke of seeing “blacks and Latinos” in Washington fighting and urged them to ban together. Clearly, he was hoping to invoke a racial war when that was NEVER the premise. Why do you not want to accept back your own people, President Petro? Why are you unable to control the drug cartels who rule your nation? He knows that those who fled under Biden are some of the worst the nation had to offer.

“You can try to carry out a coup with your economic strength and your arrogance, like then did with Allendale. But I will die in my law, I resisted torture and I resist you. I don’t want slavers next to Colombia, we already had many and freed ourselves,” Petro continued, saying Trump does not want Colombia to be free and he would not “shake hands with white slavers.” He then threatened to force 50% tariffs on the US in retaliation.

Democrats in the US sided with Petro immediately and claimed that asking illegal residents to return home was undignified. These politicians are demanding that American citizens pay for illegal migrants. There is no ongoing war in Colombia, and they did not come here for asylum. America has a legal immigration process that people can follow if they’d like to reside here.

Petro’s tantrum ended in defeat. We now have a president who is not afraid of confrontation. Trump has been thrown to the wolves so many times that any attempt to villainize him is met with apathy. America will no longer be made to feel like an antihero for its economic success nor will its people be subject to the sins of their forefathers. America finally has a leader who demands respect and is not afraid to raise hell for America First policies.

Germany’s AfD Calls for “Remigration”


Posted originally on Jan 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Party is prepared to break with the European Union’s policy of open borders and implement a mass deportation operation. This is yet another reason why the establishment is attempting to ban the party and brand it as “far-right.”

Europe’s open border policies began in Germany under former Chancellor Angela Merkel who urged Syrians to flee and seek asylum within Germany in 2015. That same year, Germany experienced a massive uptick of 2.14 million arrivals. Other figures believe the number is far higher. There are now an estimated 14 million immigrants in Germany, most of whom are not there legally.

It became brutally apparent that there was major difference in cultures, and migrants, primarily single men, were unprepared for the Western world. Women in once safe cities feared walking alone. The German government created pamphlets and courses on how to properly flirt with a woman without sexual harassment. The continual rise in crime was not enough to deter the globalist government who insisted the rest of Europe adopt open border policies as well.

Germany How 2 Get Lucky

Violent crimes in Germany reached a 15-year high last year, a 5.5% YoY rise, and MIGRANTS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR 40% OF THOSE CRIMES. It is not racist or xenophobic to state FACTS – these unvetted migrants from a completely different social background are ruining Germany. Lamya Kaddor, a Green Party MP, said that migrants were simply over-represented in crime statistics. “The crime rate is higher among socio-economically disadvantaged groups, which very often include foreign nationals,” they coldly said. None of the Build Back Better leaders are concerned with the welfare of their own citizens.

The cost on the welfare state is astounding. Germany spend at least 23.2 billion euros on supporting refugees last year after spending 29.7 billion euros the year prior. In fact, the government as admitted to spending over 20 billion euros each year since open borders were implemented. We are talking about over 5% of the federal budget going directly toward illegal residents.

The AfD would like to reclaim Germany, with leader Alice Weidel coining a new term, “remigration.” Migrants would be redirected back to their country of origin. She also called many of Germany’s migrants “un-assimilated” residents which is precisely the problem. Thousands have protested in favor of keeping the borders wide open. Will they pay the price to support these people? Migrants committed 40% of all violent crimes last year, are draining social programs, yet people are fighting for them to stay? Perhaps there are some citizens who have also failed to assimilate to German culture.

Hungary May Not Renew Russian Sanctions


Posted originally on Jan 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

viktor orban

Brussels has been eager to oust Hungarian leader Viktor Orban. The prime minister has grown bolder in his battle against Ukraine regarding the nation blocking gas imports from Russia. Orban has not declared that he may not renew the European Union’s required sanction on Russia unless Ukraine renews the Russian pipeline deal. A final decision will be made today.

“Now the issue of extending sanctions is on the agenda, I have put on the handbrake and asked European leaders to understand that this cannot continue,” said Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, speaking to state broadcaster Kossuth Radio. “Hungary cannot be made to pay the price of sanctions in such proportions.”

Current EU criteria demand that all 27 EU nations increase penalties against Russia every six months so long as the war continues. The bloc has already frozen €200 billion in sovereign assets and nearly eliminated all trade. The problem is that neighboring nations are more reliant on Russian energy and have been disproportionately affected by these sanctions. Ukraine’s Zelensky recently failed to renew a critical pipeline deal that all but halted Russian gas imports to the EU.

Fico Robert Slovakian PM

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has also spoken out repeatedly, citing the need for Russian energy and warning that his nation will face an energy crisis if Ukraine prevents the flow of gas. “There is no EU legislation or system of sanctions that would hinder Ukraine from continuing the gas transit,” Fico said earlier in the month. “We can’t ignore this topic because everyone knows ignoring it means escalating tensions in the EU and in bilateral relations.”

“The Ukrainians, while it is in their interests to impose sanctions, are now poking their nose into the flour and tampering with the Hungarians, even on the energy side, because they are not allowing gas to flow from Russia to Hungary,” Orbán said.

The Hungarian government asked to delay the penalty renewal process until after the US election. Trump’s decision to threaten Russia with sanctions boldened EU leaders to call out Hungary and demand they follow the lead.

The European Union cannot possibly act in the best interest of all member states. The entire premise of this alliance was doomed from the start. Members are growing increasingly frustrated as Brussels hinders their individual economies and this political instability will be one of the many reasons the EU will cease to exist.

Should the Feds Lower Rates?


Posted originally on Jan 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

FederalReserve 1

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Donald Trump face off once again. The two have notoriously butted heads over interest rates, as Trump has accused the Fed of stifling economic growth by raising the cost of borrowing. Speaking at Davos, the president said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

We all know the Federal Reserve is independent and the White House cannot dictate interest rates. Lowering interest rates does not stimulate the economy, contradictory to the common belief that reducing rates will boost economic growth. The outdated understanding based on Keynesian Economics states that an increase in the supply of money MUST be inflationary. The Fed raises rates to reduce consumption and lowers rates to stimulate consumption.

It’s a very nice theory, but when actually tested, it utterly fails. Lower rates will NEVER cause people to invest until they believe that there is an opportunity to invest. We are watching the big players withdraw from equities, let alone government debt. We are in a private wave where money is running off the grid at a rapid pace.

Once upon a time, you could not borrow against government debt. Thus, it was deemed non-inflationary as long as it could not be used as money. Today, you post bills as collateral to trade futures. The old theories no longer exist in this new, strange world we live in. Hence, all the QE was merely swapping the debt for cash.

Every fiscal policy in recent years has exacerbated inflation and the Fed cannot keep up with government spending. QE FAILED. The artificially low interest rates of the recent past were completely unsustainable and relied on outdated theories.

The most significant issues facing our economy are simply out of the Fed’s hands: war, taxation, and government spending. Chairman Jerome Powell surprised everyone when he called spending under the Biden-Harris administration “unsustainable” and warned that it would hurt generations to come. While not a direct criticism, Powell issued a stark warning that aligned with our Revolution Cycle of 72 years. In 1951, the central bank defied the US government by refusing to purchase debt to prevent rate hikes amid the Korean War. The minutes reports always mention that the central bank is keenly monitoring geopolitical events as it must look at all variables from a global standpoint.

The issue of increasing sanctions on Russia, and the rest of the world for that matter, may raise inflationary fears and push long-term rates higher. Then we are looking at the risk of Japan, who holds the bulk of US debt, experiencing a sovereign default in a contagion that will spread to Europe.

We may see the Fed pull back rates this year. Powell understands that Keynesian policies no longer work and raising rates have no effect on inflation. Interest rates are really the price of money in anticipation of future inflation.