Tag Archives: G-20

Apr 12 2023

When It Comes to Economics, Trust Your Instincts


Posted originally on the CTH on April 11, 2023 | Sundance 

A few days after the terror attack of 9-11-01, someone in media asked George W. Bush what Americans can do to help.  Dubya’s response drew instant criticism, because he asked people to go shopping… but in the big picture, President Bush knew what could happen if the economic freeze continued.

When it comes to politics and economic outlooks, trust your instincts.  The economics of the ‘thing’ is always the reason the ‘thing’ exists or does not exist.

When you are looking at economic news, always remind yourself… the people producing the news have a vested interest in maintaining a very specific outlook.  The motive behind what Dubya said in September of 2001, pertains every bit as much today.  Economic outcomes can topple entire governments.

Remember, this current ‘supply-side energy policy driven inflation‘, a purposeful effort to shrink the economy and yet tenuously maintain control, has never happened before.  The people behind the Build Back Better agenda are, in reality, experimenting with a theory. DATA…

(ISM) – The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI contracted for the fifth straight month in March registering 46.3, the lowest level since May 2020. Any reading below 50.0 indicates contraction.  The employment index declined by 2.2 percent to a level of 46.9.

Most of the impediments to manufacturing growth — such as shortages and lockdowns — have subsided, said Tim Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing survey committee, with the exception of pricing. ISM’s pricing index fell below 50 in March but at 49.2 remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.

“The beginning of the second half may not be the beginning of a recovery,” said Fiore. “Manufactures reduced headcounts because of uncertainty of demand and over-ordering has burned off. Demand isn’t coming back quickly enough to support current headcounts.”

All these trends were prevalent in March, he added, although the PMI has only lost 3 to 4 points since October 2022.

Back in December, ISM panelists anticipated an uptick in demand by the beginning of Q2. “We thought this recovery would be lumpy, but I think this indicates the recovery has been delayed,” Fiore said. “I think we are talking about expansion toward the end of Q3—it’s unlikely we’ll see a lot of activity in the summer.” (read more)

It’s not a recovery now, it will not be a recovery this year.

On a per unit basis, we have been in an economic contraction cycle since mid 2021.  However, because economic outcomes are measured in dollars, the shrinking unit output, and the fewer units being sold at wholesale and retail level, is being hidden.

Inflation has hidden serious drops in unit purchases…. and fewer unit purchases mean lowered production output…. and lowered production output means less production is needed.

(CNBC SURVEY) – Inflation, economic instability and a lack of savings have an increasing number of Americans feeling financially stressed. 

Some 70% of Americans admit to being stressed about their personal finances these days and a majority — 52% — of U.S. adults said their financial stress has increased since before the Covid-19 pandemic began in March 2020, according to a new CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey conducted in partnership with Momentive.

Anxious and uncertain about whether they can get a better handle on their money, some may be intimidated by the prospect of creating a budget or unsure of where to stash their cash to get the highest returns. Others may be wondering how to begin saving for retirement when they’ve gotten off to a late start. 

“People are worried that the money they’ve saved won’t last and are worried they’re going to have to lean more on their credit cards and other sources of debt just to get by,” said Bruce McClary, a senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. (read more) 

If you want to know what’s going on in the larger U.S. economy, just look around you.

Don’t turn on the television and read the newspaper to see what is happening in the U.S. economy for your purchasing or life planning.  Just look around you.

Look at restaurants and bars.  Do you see continued high-volume business or not.

Look at the grocery stores. Do you see continued optimism, or not.

Look at the malls and shopping centers. Do you see foot traffic, or not.

Look at the real estate in your neighborhood – your local view.  Do you see prices going up or going down.

That’s the reality of the economy as it impacts you….. and critically, that’s the reality of the economy nationwide.

When it comes to data and economics, do not let the media created ‘illusion of the thing‘ cloud your ability to see the reality of the thing.

Trust your instincts.

Apr 12 2023

Macron Claims Innovation and Capitalism Is Needed While Decrying Economic Nationalism in the Nation State


Posted originally on the CTH on April 11, 2023 | Sundance 

French President Emmanuel Macron was in the Netherlands today speaking to an audience in the Hague about his vision for the future of Europe.  A remarkably disassociated speech was the outcome.

Speaking of the importance of innovation to maintain economic competitiveness, on his right-hand Macron cheers for capitalism as an outcome of competition from the only venue it exists, the nation state.  Yet on his left hand, Macron proclaims the importance of ‘globalism’ and economic socialism, which is the anthesis of creating innovation.

Economic nationalism is the only way competition between nation states succeeds. Innovation is born from competition, and without the nation state there is no baseline to maintain capitalism.  Globalism creates socialism, equity as the baseline for distribution of innovative outcomes.  Capitalism and socialism cannot coexist if innovation and competition is the goal.  The pillars which form the baseline for Macron’s view of a new Europe, collapse in his contradictory worldview.  Prompted to 10:55, WATCH:

.

Macron’s solution to the problem of innovation lacking in ‘globalist‘ economic models, is to force citizens to produce and innovate.  This is what he means by “reforms” in the competitive agenda.  Forced innovation, is the worldview of totalitarians.   Capitalism relies on freedom, not coercion.

Apr 11 2023

When the Body Bags Start Coming Home


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Neocons are on both sides of the aisle. In the Republican camp, of course, we have Lindsy Graham, but there is also Marco Rubio who has the audacity to tell Europe they better pick sides. Then there is Michael McCaul of Texas. Based on reliable sources, the military has been instructed to prepare for war. This is inevitable.

The Democrats intend to beat the war drums to make sure the Republican Neocons will vote with them. Biden intends to Run in 2024. The Neocons need him because he is senile and will say what they write on his cue cards and sign whatever they put in front of him. Blinken is the leader of the Neocons in the White House. They are pushing for war BEFORE the 2024 election for these people looks at war and that typically the president in power is always reelected in times of war. So, hunker down. Hide your kids. It’s off to war we go so Biden can be reelected. They thought Trump would be the Republican and Biden could beat him. That remains to be seen when the body bags start coming home. These people have no respect for the people or human rights. It’s all just a chess game to them.

Apr 10 2023

Interview: Can History Help Us Predict Market Cycles?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Visit Spotify or your podcast channel of choice for my most recent interview with TikMill.

Martin Armstrong, a true market maverick & innovator – ‘History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme’ M.Twain – a motto for the ages and closely linked to Martin Armstrong’s market and personal ethos, Martin’s Socrates platform is truly groundbreaking as is his Economic Confidence model, listen in and learn more – enjoy!

Apr 10 2023

Poor Kids (documentary)


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Apr 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

This documentary is extremely hard to watch but accurately depicts the hardships millions face in the modern industrialized world. We cannot turn a blind eye to the pain and suffering that poverty creates. This is happening today in the wealthiest country in the world.

Below is an update from the documentary that aired in 2012. There was a slight glimpse of hope when Obama left office and the economy improved under Trump. Still, the funds we send overseas are needed at home. Those with the least suffer the most when the economy turns down.

This a raw reminder to count your blessing on this Easter Monday.

Apr 8 2023

About that New York Times Story Concerning the “Online Leak” of U.S. Ukraine and Geopolitical Plans


Posted originally on the CTH on April 8, 2023 | Sundance

By now people are familiar with a New York Times (original source) story of a leak of sensitive classified information regarding U.S. operations in Ukraine and other geopolitical efforts.  The New York Times was the first with the story, as shared with them by “senior Biden administration officials.”

WASHINGTON — Classified war documents detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russian troops were posted this week on social media channels, senior Biden administration officials said. (more)

Now, let’s use this opportunity to expand our knowledge base, overlay the known frameworks that operate within our government, and simultaneously give a perspective that will not surface anywhere else.

First, the story surfaces from the New York Times.  What does that tell us?  It tells us the stakeholders in a background narrative surrounding the issue as constructed are domestic intelligence interests.  If there was a State Dept stakeholder interest, the story would have been presented by CNN.  If there was a U.S. foreign intelligence operation stakeholder interest, the story would have surfaced in the Washington Post.

The story surfaces in the New York Times, indicating a U.S. domestic intelligence interest; and the story is sourced directly to the White House via “senior Biden administration officials.”  What does that mean?  It means the narrative that flows from the story has a direction to shape opinion from the perspective of U.S. government domestic public relations.  It means the narrative is intended to sway a domestic audience with a motive toward something else.

Secondly, and in full alignment with the first point, the centerpiece of the story is focused on a leak that surfaces in “social media.”  This fits perfectly with the domestic intelligence stakeholders (DHS, National Security Council, etc).   We know domestic intelligence operates in the backbone of social media platforms.  An example is DHS and domestic Intelligence Community (IC) work as outlined in the Twitter files.

Put them together, a domestic IC product surfaced (being called leaked) into social media platforms containing portals controlled by domestic IC.

The domestic IC then report on the leaks to the outlet used by the domestic IC.   See how these fit?

If you follow the bouncing ball, what you immediately suspect is the domestic IC planted the ‘classified information’ in the platforms they can access, then turn around and report on the leak of the classified information to media they use for domestic narrative engineering.

♦ Motive – But why would the IC plant classified information, then turn around and report on the classified information they planted?  This is where you need to learn how the motives work, against a bigger picture.

The leak (planted information) and then the telling of the leak (NYT story) creates an opportunity for the domestic IC to frame a Russian dis/mis/mal-information narrative.

But why would the IC want to immediately stir up a misinformation or disinformation narrative against Russia?

♦ Answer: 18 hours before the leak/story construct.  Two Russian gremlins, perhaps state sponsored, or perhaps just state aligned, tricked former French President Francios Hollande into admitting the U.S. government and western alliance were behind all of the events in Ukraine after 2014, with the expressed intention to construct a proxy war against Russia using Ukraine.

Russian Pranksters Vovan and Lexus, posing as former Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko, got French ex-President Francois Hollande to admit the Minsk Accords were a NATO ruse to militarize Ukraine, and Western nations overthrew Ukraine’s democratically-elected government in 2014. (Full YouTube Conversation)

As noted by Gonzalo Lira, “François Hollande, former president of France, confirms that the 2014 coup d’etat in Ukraine was part of a long-term plan to have Ukraine fight a proxy war against Russia. The Americans have been preparing this war since the Obama administration—it is now confirmed beyond doubt.”

The admission by Hollande aligns with every element of the U.S. effort to use Russia as a bad guy, including the use of Russia against Donald J Trump.  A proxy war against Russia was in the works going all the way back to the Euromaidan efforts, the color revolution in Ukraine, as constructed by the U.S. State Department, and facilitated by U.S. allies in Europe.

This is the most explosive dose of geopolitical sunlight in years, and obviously these statements by Hollande were a serious issue for the White House and U.S. Intelligence Community.   Hollande was tricked by two Russian pranksters into spilling the real story about Ukraine and U.S. involvement therein.

Now do you see the need?  The Hollande admission is an urgent problem.

Less than one news cycle later, the IC has dropped the Ukraine counteroffensive strategy in the platforms the IC has access to (a purposeful leak).  Then the IC tells the story of the classified strategy leak to the New York Times and begins framing a Russian mis/disinformation campaign.   The intent is to mitigate any issues with the Hollande story, fall under the same claims of Russian mis/disinformation.

The leak of classified intelligence, and the attribution to Russian misinformation, is like a brushback pitch toward the heads of the media on the explosive Francios Hollande story.  It worked.  Have you seen the admissions by Francios Hollande in any MSM?   Unified UniParty interests at play.

That’s how the control agents operate.  Deflection and adverse information removal is what IC narrative engineering is intended to control.  This was a successful IC operation.

Once you see the strings on the DC marionettes, you can never return to that moment in the performance when you did not see them.

Apr 7 2023

Donald Trump Will Be Convicted


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law Re-Posted Apr 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Never in my wildest dreams did I ever think that the Democrats would have stooped to such a low position as they have indicted Trump. This is so in-your-face political and I can GUARANTEE that Trump will be convicted and the facts will NEVER matter. New York is the MOST corrupt legal system in perhaps the entire world. While the charges are a joke, the Judge is as corrupt as they come. He scheduled the next hearing for December 4th in clear violation of the Constitutional Right to a Speedy Trial. They will be roughly two months before the official start of the 2024 Republican presidential primary calendar.  It is now clear that the Judge intends to disrupt the 2024 election by constantly haunting Trump back to court to tie him up for the election.

                                                                                                                                                  Judge Richard Owen

In my own case, at first, I thought I was perhaps under stress and forgot things in court. They tried to throw me in prison on contempt to stop my Speed Trial Act motion claiming I went to my office where they had guards posted. I got past the guards and grabbed all the incriminating evidence, the guards chase me through a parking lot while I was carrying all these boxes, loaded them into my car in the middle of the chase, and go away. My lawyer, Richard Altman, was a friend. He called and said we had a contempt hearing tomorrow and told me these allegations and asked if I was crazy. I told him I was in New York, never went to the office, and to get in I would have had to use my security card twice. If it had been any other lawyer, they would never have believed me. The government is always right. I told him to call the security company. Richard called me back within 30 minutes and said do not worry, they confirmed nobody entered the building the night before.

We went to the contempt hearing and as the judge was still walking out, the government started claiming there was a mistake, someone moved boxes from one room to the next but nothing was taken. How that got to guards chasing me through parking lots and me outrunning them carrying all these boxes, somehow vanished. They spent 20 to 30 minutes back-tracking. They had been illegally tapping even my lawyer’s phones. So they knew we could prove their allegations were all false. That is when I got the transcript and 99% of all their explanation was removed. I asked the lawyer what was going on. He said welcome to New York. The judges can commit felonies by altering the court records and nobody will prosecute them. Even the Court of Appeals admitted that this was taking place and claimed they lacked the power to tell judges to obey the law.

They took my lawyers away and then they rig the game with court-appointed lawyers who lose every case to keep the government’s 99% conviction rate. The only “innocent” people are those who die before trial under mysterious circumstances. NEVER trust ANY court-appointed lawyer. I have NEVER met one who EVER defends a person. Knowing the law myself, I would submit my own briefs. I went through all the transcripts and submitted under penalty of perjury all the things the judge removed from the transcripts. When I went to court that day, there were hundreds of people there. When I asked what was going on, the court-appointed lawyers said it’s you. You cannot accuse a judge of committing a felony. I said you all admit this is taking place. They said, yes, but you cannot accuse a judge. There were so many people there, Judge Owen got scared. He admitted to changing my transcripts which is a felony and refused to recuse himself. When I tried to appeal. the Second Circuit Court of Appeals which is no better lost my appearance three times and refuse to ever docket the case.

5) SDNY Practice

The problem in the instant case has led lawyers on both sides to highlight a problematic practice in the Southern District of New York and has prompted one of them to ask this court to order that the practice be eliminated. See Leiwant Decl. at 2. According to lawyers for both the government and defense, as well as Bologna, the “standard practice” in the Southern District is for a court reporter to submit the transcript of jury instructions to the district court before releasing it to the parties. See id.; Pomerantz Affirm. ¶ 11; Bologna 4/99499 Aff. ¶ 3. The district court is free to alter the transcript, and any changes are incorporated in the “official” transcript without disclosing such changes to the parties. See Bologna 4/99499 Aff. ¶ 3. According to counsel, the Southern District is somewhat unique in this practice. See Leiwant Decl. at 2.

Courts do not have power to alter transcripts in camera and to conceal the alterations from the parties.11  Given the issues that arose in this case as a direct result of this practice, there appears to be little justification for continuing the practice in its present form. To be sure, a procedure that corrects obvious mistakes in transmission is useful, and the parties have little interest in closely monitoring such a procedure so long as the alterations are cosmetic. Monitoring by the parties, however, provides some assurance that only cosmetic changes will be made or, if not, that changes will correctly reflect what transpired in the particular proceeding. Moreover, there is little cost in informing the parties of cosmetic changes or at least of directing court reporters to give parties access to the original transcript when they request it.

Nevertheless, whether we have the power to order a change in such a practice is unclear.12  We review judgments, and our review of the convictions and sentences here may not be an appropriate vehicle for the fine tuning of this practice. However, we invite the judges of the Southern District to consider revision.

This is what Trump will face. New York is the most corrupt court in the United States if not the entire world. The Constitution means NOTHING to these people. This is April, and the Judge ignored the Speedy Trial Constitutional Right and made his next appearance on December 4th which is clearly to interfere with his running for president.

There is NO WAY this prosecution would have taken place WITHOUT the approval of the Democrats. This is total BS that they did not interfere. What is likely to now unfold is a political civil war. Every Republican Prosecutor should start indicting Pelosi, Hillary, Hunter, and Biden and keep going. Maybe this is what our computer has been forecasting with massive civil unrest.

The computer has called all the shots. It projected Trump would win in 2016 and even BRIXT would win when everyone forecast the opposite. We are looking at serious civil unrest. Quite frankly, this trial of Trump may expose how bad the courts really are and I am surprised the minorities have not stormed the courthouses in New York yet as the French did on Bastille Day in 1789. It will problem come in the not-too-distant future.

When the world sees firsthand how the American “JUS US” system really works, this will contribute to the collapse of governments in 2032.

Apr 7 2023

Who is Funding Ukraine? 


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Apr 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Every week, there is a new announcement of the US pledging additional aid to Ukraine. Biden has provided Zelensky with a blank check to fund this war while his own country’s infrastructure crumbles. The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative led by the Department of Defense is providing Ukraine with another $2.1 billion for funding. The announcement came the same day that Finland joined NATO, and Russia promised retaliation. This means Zelensky will have both hands out begging for more at your expense.

“Russia alone could end its war today,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said in a statement. “Until Russia does, the United States and our allies and partners will stand united with Ukraine for as long as it takes.” Longtime warmonger Blinken knows that Russia will never retreat. The war will go on until something catastrophic occurs. It is hard to determine how much the US has spent on Ukraine but the CBO estimated the amount was around $113 in 2022. If there are 131.2 million households in America, that means each household paid around $861 to fund a war that does not involve America or any of America’s allegiances. Obviously some pay more and some pay less based on the constantly changing tax brackets. Those who read this blog understand, but for those who think the money is coming out of the politicians’ pockets…

YOU ARE FUNDING UKRAINE! Your name is on the blank check! When you file your taxes this year, know that a portion of what the government withheld went directly to a foreign war. In fact, every day you work, you’re giving a piece to Zelensky. There is no account of exactly how they are using these funds. Meanwhile, American infrastructure is crumbling. Our schools are underfunded, homelessness is rampant, shelter costs have soared, poverty rates are rising, our medical system bankrupts families daily, millions of unaccounted aliens are crossing into our country, and your taxes are rising to pay for it all!

You will pay more money every year that this senseless war wages on. So if someone with no personal connections to Ukraine waves their yellow and blue flag and claims Biden is defeating big bad Russia, ask them if they’d like to pay your portion of the proxy war effort. The people never voted for these measures that have gone far beyond any aid we have sent to a foreign war effort.

Apr 7 2023

Epic Panda!


Posted originally on the CTH on April 6, 2023 | Sundance 

This is the funniest thing in months.  Take the time to enjoy and laugh folks… Really, take the time.

French President Emmanuel Macron is in Beijing for an official state visit and his geopolitical priority is to break, or at least weaken, the China-Russia alliance. Yes, the western alliance sent diminutive Macron for this task.  That is funny enough… but what comes next is buckets funnier.

In order to give power to their position, the brilliant NATO minds decided that President Macron should take European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, as a way to express the united ‘western alliance’ message that Macron was intended to leverage in his efforts.  Obviously cunning Panda knew the intent, and the way China literally diminished the effort is not only funny in diplomatic action, but also in the optics they present.  LOOK:

Upon arrival in Beijing, and customary with keeping good panda face, Macron “was given the full red-carpet treatment this week in Beijing, fêted at a state banquet, and greeted by military parades and firing cannons on Tiananmen Square. When Macron’s plane touched down, China’s foreign minister personally welcomed him.”  However, “when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived, she got the ecology minister — at the regular passenger exit.” [link]

Big Panda is subtle like a brick through a window. lolol.

(Politico) – […] While Macron’s schedule was overflowing, von der Leyen’s was bare-bones. While Macron was attending a lavish state banquet Thursday night with Chinese President Xi Jinping, von der Leyen was giving a sober press conference at the EU delegation’s own headquarters. While state media trumpeted the Sino-French relationship, Chinese social media demonized von der Leyen as an American puppet.

The distinction illustrates the difficulties Europe is having in dealing with China. The EU’s 27 members have an array of opinions about how to approach China — and Beijing knows this. And in the case of Macron and von der Leyen, Beijing sees a greater chance to make headway with the French leader, rendering the EU executive to a somewhat subordinate position.

The strategy was on full display Thursday, as Xi descended the outsized steps of the Great Hall of the People to greet the French president with smiles and a handshake. Below a line of flapping red flags, the two leaders exchanged greetings with a gathering that included some of Macron’s advisers. 

Not present: von der Leyen. She would join later for the meetings, walking up the Great Hall stairs in solitude. (read more)

The only world leader who was/is able to diminute Chairman Xi Jinping, was U.S. President Donald Trump.

This entire effort by Macron and Von der Leyen is an exhibition in painful and slow-moving Panda humiliation.  Even Politico had to note the cringe factor that surrounds the diplomatic undressing.

Even if you don’t like Big Panda, and obviously we do not, you still have to give them credit.  It really is funny.

Well played, big panda… Well played.