Bavarian Banks Not Depositing Money at ECB


ILLUSTRATION - 5000 Euro in 50-Euro-Scheinen werden am 03.02.2016 am Schalter einer Sparkasse in München (Bayern) in einer Geldzählmaschine gezählt. Foto: Matthias Balk/dpa (zu dpa «Bundesregierung wirbt für Bargeld-Limit von 5000 Euro» vom 03.02.2016) +++(c) dpa - Bildfunk+++

Bavarian banks have figured out that negative interest rates are insane. They must pay the ECB to hold their cash. They have decided it is better to store their cash and eliminate deposits at the ECB as reported by Spiegel Online. These people are just brain dead. They think negative interest rates will somehow “stimulate” the economy. No, they

Hollande Objects to Any Special Deal for Britain to Stay in EU


Hollande-Francois-4

Sometimes you really have to ask: Is French President Francois Hollande simply clueless? At a European Union summit, Hollande said he opposes Britain’s demands for special treatment for its financial markets as a way to keep Britain in the bloc. Hollande has bluntly said that Britain cannot veto what happens in the Eurozone. Hollande’s socialist agenda will never yield. He is so out of touch with reality. If Britain remains in the EU, it will be the end of the financial markets in Britain. You definitely want to get your money out before you cannot. There is little doubt that Hollande will outlaw shorts, and that will destroy liquidity. This may be the final straw that diverts the financial capital of the world to Asia

Germany on the Threshold of an Unprecedented Radicalization


Maassen Hans-Georg

The president of the German secret service, Hans-Georg Maassen, has come out and warned that the uncontrolled immigration has created a serious safety risk to Germany because the authorities no longer know who is in the country. If people think U.S. politics are going in the gutter, look at Germany where politicians have created a clash between polarized left and right-wing extremism. Maassen warned that an Islamist or right-wing attack in Germany could lead to an explosion of social unrest. Maassen has virtually shown that Merkel’s decisions have placed Germany at serious risk, but has also fueled the movement to end the Eurozone.

cycleofwar-2014

Merkel’s decision happened at the worst possible timing. As the European economy turns down further, the cost of the refugees will send taxes even higher. The civil unrest our model has been predicting is on schedule. It is linked to the economy and when that turns down, this cycle will turn up.

Super Tuesday Debrief, Primary Results and Anticipated GOPe Reactions….


This is war and in war the tactical plan ends when the battle begins. So far trump is ahead but there is still a long way to go — Trump needs to win Ohio and win in Florida those are must wins and we must do everything we can to achieve that goal.

Moody’s Warns of 30% Rise in Commodity Based Company Bankruptcies in 2016


gold-prospector

The Commodity industry is bracing for a high year of bankruptcy and default filings impacting mining & metals along with oil & gas. Moody’s has also warned of global speculative-grade corporate defaults will increase by more than 30% in 2016 reaching the highest level since 2009. Those interested in mining shares should pay close attention to what you are buying. Until gold crosses that key resistance, we still have only a typical 3 month reaction. A rally must extend beyond March to  be impressive.

Moody’s Lowers Credit Rating of China to Negative from Stable


beijing-2

Moody’s lowers outlook on China’s credit rating to negative from stable. We have been warning that our models on China indicate that the bottom in the economy does not appear likely until 2020. This should be a 13 year contraction. So far that forecast appears to be on target.

The Unfolding Pension Crisis


Pension-Crisis

Part of the collapse in confidence we are experiencing with government stems directly from the fact that politicians engage in far more criminal behavior than anyone in the corporate world. While bankers may manipulate markets to trade against clients, politicians just lie to keep their jobs. The fact that they are incapable of managing the country, no less the economy, is coming to a head. The pension crisis we face emerges from all the promises of socialism. The crisis sprung from the fact that they don’t fund much of their promises and just assume there are enough schmucks to tax.

What played out in Detroit was critical but they ignored the problem. Pensions exceeded 50% of the budget and the city could not raise taxes because people just left town. Now in Kansas, workers are discovering that after 33 years they are facing a 51% cut to their pensions. The Central States Pension Fund that covers 400,000 participants (220,000 of them are retired) will go completely bust within 10 years.

934-ECM 2011 - 2020

This story will replay over and over again throughout the country on the other side of 2017.9 (Nov 24/25, 2017). We should begin to read more and more about this problem when we pass 2016.825 (October 28, 2016).

The coming Collapse of the EU


EU Flag 300

Our long-term projection models targeted March 13/14th, 2016 for when the confidence in the EU would begin to crack much more profoundly among the average community. Indeed, the general view about the EU’s future has begun to to just plummet as reported in every member state (28 in total) with the exception of just three: member states, most strikingly in the Netherlands and Germany, where people are now overwhelmingly negative about the outlook for the union. Where the EU remains with the smallest amount of pessimists is actually Ireland coming in at 20% with Greece leading the pack at 63%. The pessimism has increased by 20% in the past year alone. It appears the computer has again successfully targeted the correct period but this feat is accomplished by looking at the business cycle. It is very clear that once the cycle turns down, confidence collapses.

UK - Euro Flags

BREXITIn Britain, 44% of the population are now against staying in the EU. Clearly, the number one issue has been the wholesale migration ushered in by Merkel or Islamic hordes. David Cameron announced the referendum would take place June 23rd. He initially agreed to such a vote because he never thought in a million years the British would vote to get out. Now the polls have narrowed and despite the media supporting Cameron and the EU, they seem unlikely to with their brainwashing campaign to stay in Europe. Despite the fact that Cameron has been trying to use scare-tactics against his pwn people to stay in the EU, he has also said that his authority rests on holding the vote on British membership, and that does not mean winning it. Cameron has no plans on stepping down if the people vote to for BREXIT. The likelihood of the British votes being rigged is EXTREMELY HIGH, because Brussels fear a contagion and since 25 out of 28 member states have seen extremely high pessimistic view of Brussels, you are looking at a massive loss of government jobs so it is unlikely Brussels will simply go quietly into the light.

EU-Poll

Bombshell Expose’ – Conservative Radio: Limbaugh, Ingraham, Hannity and Levin Were All Part of Gang-of-Eight “Gaslighting”…


So it would seem that some of our “friends” may not really be our friends — and that the deceit goes much deeper than most of us thought.

Dow Outlook – Month End February 2016


DJIND-M 2-27-2016

 

Technically, the Dow Jones Industrials was almost set up to make a “Channel Move” between two channels. But they interestingly over-lapped instead with no gap between. This is one reason the SP500 could break last years low but not the Dow. We made a new high for the month on Friday closing at 16639.97. We elected a minor Monthly Bullish Reversal in the Dow last month at 16175. Here the low remains the week of January 20th. We really need a monthly closing above 17800 to signal a breakout to the upside is likely. We have a Directional Change in March and the target for a turning point comes in April and then June.

Keep in mind that is the Euro starts to give way, more and more capital will flee Europe into the USA. The smart money will buy the equity rather than government bonds.

A month-end closing ABOVE 16934 will be bullish. A closing beneath this level is will still bearish near-term.