Choosing the Fed Chairman


Many expect Mr. Jerome H. Powell to be President Trump pick for Fed Chairman. Trump is resisting pressure by conservatives to make a larger change at the Fed. Many conservatives, including Vice President Mike Pence, preferred John B. Taylor, who is an economist at Stanford and an outspoken critic of the Fed’s monetary policy. Taylor previously served in the Treasury Department during the Bush administration. However, he is best known as an academic economist with no real experience hands-on. He wrote an approach to monetary policy, known as the “Taylor Rule,” where he suggested that the Fed should be raising rates more quickly. That was obviously based on the economic theory of the Quantity of Money leads to inflation. He also has closely advised House Republicans on legislation that would require the Fed to adopt such a policy rule taking a hawkish approach to monetary policy.

Representative Warren Davidson, a Republican on the House Financial Services Committee’s monetary policy panel, is one of the people who want a change in policy toward more conservative and austerity. He is circulating a letter opposing Yellen’s reappointment. Personally, I believe Yellen has done a good job. She has been under international pressure not to raise rates from the IMF and just about everyone else because Europe is still floundering and higher rates would be expected to push the ECB and emerging markets off into the deep-end of the pool.

Mr. Powell, on the other hand, has consistently supported the Fed’s campaign to stimulate economic growth. However, Powell expressed some reservations in internal debates about the extent of those efforts. In more recent years, Powell has backed the methodical unwinding of those efforts, and analysts expect he will seek to raise interest rates at about the same pace as Ms. Yellen.

Towns Restoring to Extortion of Drivers to Raise Money


 

I have written about the abuse of Civil Asset Forfeiture laws in the United States, which have mimicked now in Europe. Police are no longer used to protect society, but to target and harass society to raise money for the politicians. It is a shame that Trump has never been pulled over by the police. He would have received a taste of the attitude that confronts you.

The town of Castleberry, Alabama is just the tip of the iceberg. This tiny town of just 550 people has a police force 5 times the size of the national average per citizen. Why? They use every excuse to pull people over and confiscate whatever they can. The police have become the highway robbers that the Knights Templar were once formed to protect travelers on their pilgrimages.

The Knights Templar began a banking system because it became too dangerous to travel with money. These people would rob you giving rise to the term “highway robbery”. If you were in London and needed to send money to someone in Rome, you went to the Knights Templar and they would simply send a message and the local branch in Rome would make the payment for you and London took in your payment. This was how international payments began to surface after the Dark Age.

The French king seized the Papacy, moved it to Avignon in France, install a French Pope who then declared the Knights Templars were devil worshipers and seized all their wealth on Friday the 13th. They were all burned at the stake alive and the king got to keep all the money. This became the Financial Crisis of the 13Th-14th Century.

Looks like history repeats. We are back to highway robbery. Castleberry is by far not unique. %There are many small towns now doing the same thing to raise money for public officials.

Some Logical but Unmentioned Conclusions


Paul Eidelberg

Seven years ago, Caroline Glick exposed “The high price of coalition stability” (Jerusalem Post, June 22, 2010).  Her article involved some unmentioned but logical conclusions regarding Israel’s system of coalition cabinet government.  The present writer has written of these unmentioned conclusions in policy papers, books, and countless articles during the past two decades. Indeed, I have systematically correlated Israel’s political failings with its flawed institutions – all in vain.

Before continuing, let me assure the reader than I am well aware of the fact that political institutions, however wisely designed, cannot prevent the election of inept and even treacherous office holders, including presidents of the United States such as Barack Obama.  In other words, there is no institutional substitute for virtue and wisdom.  It should be emphasized that properly designed institutions can mitigate men’s follies and vices.  Alas, this is not the case in Israel, whose governmental institutions maximize the disarray of politics in this country.

The disarray began and continues as a result of a simple political decision: when Israel’s government was established in 1948, its founders, headed by David Ben-Gurion decided to make the entire country a single electoral district.  This political arrangement necessitates a parliamentary system in which parties win Knesset seats on the basis Proportional Representation (PR). Given a low electoral threshold (it has risen from 1% to 3.25%), PR spawns a multiplicity of parties such that no party has ever come close to winning a majority of the 120 seats in the Knesset.  This fact necessitates coalition cabinet government, which results in a cabinet consisting of several rival political parties.

Let’s examine the grounds on which virtually every commentator fears to tread.

1) The multiplicity of parties produced by PR prompts major parties – recall Labor in 1992 and the Likud since then – to deceive the public by campaigning on a more or less centrist or more vote-getting agenda, only to shift in the opposite direction once the leaders of these parties become prime ministers.  Thus, Labor leader Yitzhak Rabin, who scorned the PLO in the 1992 election campaign, signed – after a “decent interval” – the Israel-PLO agreement of 1993. Likewise, Ariel Sharon, who campaigned against Labor’s policy of disengagement in 2003, adopted – after another “decent interval” – that very policy!

2) Likud Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was also devious.  He said nothing of the “two state solution” preceding the February 2009 election. But after a mind-numbing interval of four months, he endorsed a Palestinian state!

3) Some sixty years ago, David Ben-Gurion denounced Proportional Representation and revealed the pernicious nature of multiparty cabinet government, which remains solidly entrenched to this day.  The reasons are not pretty.  PR not only yields a multiplicity of parties in the Knesset.  It also compels citizens to vote for fixed party lists.  One result is this: the members of the Knesset are not individually accountable to the voters in constituency or regional elections.

4) Moreover, members of the Knesset know that this system of voting for fixed party slates – a system found only in four out of more than 80 countries classified as democracies – enables an incumbent MK to be re-elected without having to compete with a rival candidate (who would surely reveal the incumbent’s political failings).  For this reason alone, virtually all members of the Knesset oppose direct, personal, and democratic election of Israel’s parliament.

5) Furthermore, multiparty cabinet government enables any MK, regardless of his record, to become a cabinet minister – the road to power and political longevity.  This explains Glick’s characterization of Ehud Barak is a “serial bungler.”  One may add Shimon Peres, the father of Oslo, who became a permanent fixture in the Knesset until that conglomeration of self-serving politicians elected him Israel’s president!

Surely a well-informed and perceptive political analyst like Caroline Glick could add many other instances of the disastrous consequences of multiparty cabinet government.

Idiots who try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure



 

COMMENT: Ok Mr. Armstrong, this is nuts; You are starting to freak me out with this forecasting. The last 2 months has blown me away when a few more elements of your methodology lit my bulb a little brighter. This may sound like you paid me to advertise for you but most of us know you’re not like Hillary. My simple approach combined 3 pieces important to me: 1. Basic knowledge of the markets on a global scale, 2. Basic understanding of your models and Socrates reports 3. Basic interpretation of the ArmstrongEconomics Blog. (utmost importance, hints included) Like Erwin said last year “it might save your life.”

He is so right.

Best to all;

RH

REPLY: I assume you are probably talking about this Vertical Market. This report is probably one of the most important I may have ever released. It’s not easy because so many people have been caught up in the Austrian School of economic thought and the Quantity of Money theory. The entire Quantitative Easy has proven that theory to be completely wrong.

I know this is like having to relearn everything. But that is just the way it is. I and my senior staff even are going to private meetings with central banks. Everything we have ever been taught in school is just dead wrong. This whole nonsense of Conspiracy Theories of people who are steering the world economy is just insane. If that were even true, then why call us at all?

The world economy is coming unglued. This is no joke. The sooner people wake up and just follow the money flows and forget the old theories, the sooner you will arrive at clarity. The only economic theories that were spot on were Adam Smith, who had no ax to grind in the observation of the Invisible Hand, and David Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage. Everyone else ever since has been about trying to eliminate the Business Cycle. This has caused a vast mess and we are about to pay the price.

We have insane politicians like the new Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern who has declared that capitalism is a blatant failure while the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says capitalism is ‘merely’ coming to an end because it is making itself obsolete.

Both witnessed the economic collapse, but instead of blaming the government and its socialist attempt to control the business cycle, they blame the people for not performing as they demand. What they are harping on is the disparity of wealth and want to take the wealth from the hated rich and somehow that is going to make it better. They are ignorant of the fact that this hated group they despise so much create the economy and jobs – not Marxism. Their failure to even recognize the collapse of Russia and China under Marxist theory is a tragedy that will only lead to internal class warfare.

I thank God I do not have much longer on the planet. I am compelled to watch idiots try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure.

What Came First? Cultivation or Cities?


 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read you One-World-Currency report. It was truly fascinating. From an academic perspective, what came first in the formation of civilization; agriculture or cities? Where does money fit into this historical perspective?

Thank you;

FD

ANSWER: There has been a fair amount of assumption that went into the history we were all taught in school. What has emerged since is a different perspective, to say the least! There are megaliths at Göbekli Tepe which were erected by hunter-gatherers around 9000 BC or about 3,000 years before history starts to be recorded. Göbekli Tepe is a stone-age mountain sanctuary. It has turned everything upside down insofar as it was assumed that the city came first and then agriculture. It appears that agriculture came first which enable people to create cities.

Göbekli Tepe proves that there was a shift from animism, a belief that attributes a soul to plants, inanimate objects, and natural phenomena inasmuch as there is some supernatural power that organizes and animates the material universe, to centralized religion. In other words, there was a shift from an egalitarian society all people are equal to a hierarchical society arranged in order of rank. Clearly, there had to be a profound economic change and yes there would have to be some sort of monetary reward in the form of some resource to create such a shift from an egalitarian to a hierarchical society.

Göbekli Tepe is extremely important despite its obscure purpose and meaning. It is not the meaning that we need argue over. The incredible fact is that such a monument was constructed in the first place 9000BC. The simple fact of its existence proves historical assumption dead wrong. It matters not whether these pillars that are carved were some religious rite or just a decoration. More than 200 pillars in about 20 circles are currently known and only 5% of the site has been excavated. The astonishing fact is economic. Producing more than 200 pillars took a lot of man-hours. That means the workers needed a stable food supply and therefore agricultural cultivate MUST have been existence BEFORE cities were carved out of stone.

The construction of Göbekli Tepe would also have required some division of labor among overseers, technicians, and workers and management. Therefore, this required a hierarchical society. Therefore, social development in creating such structures must have precipitated, rather than resulted from, the shift to agriculture.

The assumption was that cities came first and then cultivation. Obviously, you had to feed the people to construct the cities first. My bet is on cultivation came first and food became money. Money moved from food to clothing. We see the first use of metal as money being Bronze imitating a sheepskin, which was the standard of value; i.e. Jason and the Golden Fleece.

Even the early Roman bronze Aes Signatum (5 pounds of bronze) pictures a bull. Cattle were also a main monetary unit of value prior to metal.

GREXIT – Will Greece be Better off or Worse?


GREXIT

QUESTION: I just read an article about Grexit and the MoU that expires in the summer of 2018. Let’s assume Greece exits EU and the Euro, what would happen to Greece and it’s people? What hardships would Grexit bring to the Greek people and what could individual Greeks do to prepare themselves for these hardships?

Thanks for your blog.
Greetings from Greece!
Cheers,

J

ANSWER: Things will be much brighter once Greece gets out of the Euro. Brussels is desperately trying to keep Greece in the Eurozone for their survival, not what is best for Greece. The major data is published by various agencies that are directly or dependent upon government and they will always champion staying in the Eurozone. If you look beyond those headlines, you see a different picture. Most of our clients in Britain who were against BREXIT, now report that things are much better. The manufacturing industry experienced a job boom in the last quarter. Compared Q3 2016, the job market data with that for 2017 showed that the manufacturing sector witnessed a 24% increase in advertised vacancies over the past 12 months. Jobs have been created in Britain at a faster pace since the BREXIT vote, despite the headlines of the fake news.

I have explained before that when Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931, they instantly recovered from the Great Depression. This was the case study that George Warren used to demonstrate to Roosevelt that the dollar had to be devalued to reverse the economic decline. Maintaining the gold standard back then was the equivalent of “austerity” imposed upon Europe by Germany. Everyone just gets this whole issue of currency and the Quantity of Money dead wrong. The Austrian School of economics predates the massive government debt era. Today, the government is the biggest borrower within society and they compete against the private sector reducing economic growth.

The refugee crisis alone has devasted Greece. The London Financial Times reported in June that bookings were off as much as 70% for tourists. Greece has to suffer refugees that have devastated its tourist business and that has been one of its primary economic sectors.

Bring on GREXIT and you will stop the refugees as well if they cannot get into the EU by going to Greece. The rest of the EU will not help Greece of Italy pay for these refugees. There is no benefit to remaining in the Eurozone. It is time to slam the door of Brussels.

CIA & FBI Still Stalling on JFK Documents – Why?


The CIA and FBI have had 50 years to go over these documents. Nevertheless, they waited to the last day to object. That tactic was deliberate to push Trump into a corner. He gave them six months to review. Many of the documents listed as “classified” are not even legible, raising more concerns that these have been deliberately altered to protect someone or something.

At this point, no matter what they release, still 60%+ of American will just not believe them. After 50 years to go by and claiming they are still a danger to “survivors” is an absolute joke. The files released also show intense defense by both the CIA and FBI to claim they had nothing to do with anything. That simply brings to mind Shakespeare. Hamlet then turns to his mother and asks her, “Madam, how like you this play?”, to which she replies “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.” Indeed, the CIA and FBI seem to protest too much asserting their innocence in this affair.

It is also clear from documents that the CIA questioned the official storyline of the assassination in the years followed. An unnamed CIA author noted in a 1975 memo that the agency, the FBI and the Warren Commission failed to investigate key clues into assassin Lee Harvey Oswald’s ties to Cuba.

Then we have FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover who in a memo dated Nov. 24, 1963, the same day that Oswald was killed by a questionable retribution of Jack Ruby, expressed concern that Oswald’s death would result in uncertainty among U.S. citizens over his guilt.

“The thing I am concerned about, and so is [Deputy Attorney General Nicholas] Katzenbach, is having something issued so that we can convince the public that Oswald is the real assassin,”

Hoover wrote.

At this point, there have been way too many delays and the only reason for that is to protect something or someone. If it were Oswald alone, then why hide documents?

Gold Better in Euros than Dollars?


QUESTION: G’day guys.
Thanks for a great seminar in Hong Kong!
I’m reading through your 1 world currency report and find it very interesting, going back to primary school teachings about barter systems and some funny monetary acceptances that have been in place many years ago. Like 14.5 kg copper plates as a currency only back in the 1600’s in Sweden. Or 1-ton barrels of tobacco. Very interesting and tough to carry in your wallet.
The major teaching I received from the Hong Kong Seminar was to look at the currencies (something I’ve had plenty of lessons dealt over the years trying to trade) in regard to products and assets in the many different countries around the world.
My question now we are seeing bitcoins and possibly diamonds and other mediums we are not yet aware of yet replacing gold as a new vehicle to move cash or wealth into a better performing countries assets.
With the collapse about to occur in Europe and Britain included monetary wise. Instead of buying gold in relation to USD one should buy gold against the Euro’s or Pounds when the time is right?
Or has a gold lost its lustre today and the contagion to gold may not occur to the extremes that have occurred in the past?
Will Europe money tell the story? The smart money is moving to the DOW. Will it return to gold when the people lose their confidence?
Thanks for the interesting and new way of looking at the markets Marty. I’m doing better with Socrates though still a novice.
Take care and wish I was coming to the next conference. Hope it’s a beauty.
A

ANSWER: Gold has lost its movability aspect as they hunt money for taxes. Twenty years ago you could hop on a plane with a briefcase of gold with no problem. From that perspective, gold has lost its international portability. This is obviously why people are turning to diamonds, rare ancient coins, and the like – movable assets. We are even witnessing real estate starting to decline now in New York City. The high-end real estate market (not the low-end) was making new highs as big money was trying to get off the grid. Realtors were reporting to us that the major of such high-end deals were all for cash – no mortgages.

Gold would certainly be a better hedge against the Euro than the dollar. It has outperformed the dollar because you always have to look at the currency. However, money will NEVER shift from the stock market all into gold. Everyone has their pet investment in what they feel comfortable. Gold is a retail product – not institutional. The Institutions can trade ETFs, gold stocks etc., but they will never take possession of gold.

What we are facing in truth is a currency reset. That means that ALL tangible assets rise against the currency in whatever country we are talking about. The goldbugs always hate the dollar and many of them have turned away from gold and into cryptocurrencies.

You will always have people who will prefer stocks, others gold, and others real estate, That is just the way it is. To each their own.

Cars Sales Dropping as Taxes Rise


The demand for cars has been declining rapidly in Britain and that is impacting German car sales rather sharply. All price levels in cars have been declining, not just the high end. The sales figures for small cars and the medium class have already declined significantly in the last few months. Now the losses are also becoming apparent in the case of expensive brands, especially for the German car manufacturers.

As taxes have risen upon the average person and this hunt for more tax revenue unfolds globally, this is what creates the recession and deflation. It a strange paradox for many as they see deficit spending rise. Many have a hard time comprehending that if the money supply increases, how can there be deflation? It is always the bottom-line. If you keep raising taxes, you will reduce the standard of living, and that in turn comes back and results in lower economic activity.

China Moving to Take the Lead in Technology


China is moving rapidly to advance and take the lead in technology from the United States and they will accomplish that in the years ahead. China is moving very fast on every front. China is moving faster on quantum communications and computing and they are embracing real Artificial Intelligence that is being ignored by the powers that be in the US government.

We were granted our business license in China BECAUSE of our technology while the USA keeps trying to suppress technology advancement in our field. That means the government even had to review the conflicts with the USA and dismissed them as all other nations as being “stitched up” as one put it in Europe.

The regulators in the USA have one policy – if the big boys do it it’s OK. They are Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Jail, but big enough to hire government employees. Anyone else has to be regulated when the regulators do not even understand what they are doing. The bottom-line policy at the US regulators – if they do not understand it, regulate it out of existence. You are not allowed to compete against New York City.

In the United States, there remains over regulation because the government is clueless about technology. The next crisis will be really worse than 2007-2009 because they have chased so many from the marketplace with fines and regulations that make no sense. The SEC has had to announce strengthening rules for their own people in trading on inside information. The more regulators we have the more corruption that exists. I have stated before, when I was managing positions for the Onassis estate in commodities, I had the larges physical position in Platinum. It took six months to get permission to trade at that level way beyond exchange limits and when I picked up the phone the first time, everyone already knew the size of my position. So much for regulators. Today, positions of managers over $100 million in assets must be reported to the SEC. You can bet that i8nfo is handed out under the table.

In quick succession, China in recent months has utilized a quantum satellite to transmit ultra-secure data, inaugurated a 1,243-mile quantum link between Shanghai and Beijing, and announced a $10 billion quantum computing center. The USA cannot even compete with this level of technology yet. We have been a full green light on our systems. There is no question that China will be the dominant economy after 2032.