September 6, 2019
White House Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow discusses the August jobs report and the latest on China trade negotiations. Main Street USA is thriving, and the U.S. economy is very strong.
Tag Archives: The Forecaster
August Report: 130,000 Jobs Added, Annual Wage Growth 3.2%, Three Month Wage Growth 4.2%…
September 6, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Jobs Report showing 130,000 jobs added during the month. Year-over-year wage growth remains 3.2%, with a very strong three month wage growth showing gains of 4.2%.
Overall the top line growth of 130k jobs sounds modest; but jumpin’ ju-ju bones, the data underneath the top line is extremely strong and highlights exactly why wage rates have been rapidly increasing over the past three months. [Table A – BLS Report]
- The civilian labor force increased by 571,000 workers in August.
- The number of employed Americans jumped up by 590,000 in August.
- The number of people not in the labor force dropped by 364,000 in August.
- The workforce participation rate increased 0.2 to 63.2 percent in August.
With a tight labor market we are seeing the natural upward pressure on wages. In the past four months wage rates have increased 4.2% [Table B-3], and from the employment data it appears those large wage incentives are bringing people back into the workforce.
Year-over-year the number of employed Americans has grown by 2,274,000 people.
Trump War Room✔@TrumpWarRoom
CNN’s Christine Romans: “More than 500,000 people entered the labor market…that is an important sign of success in the labor market right now.”
2,227 people are talking about this
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Currency Which Expires – That’s the Solution – Or Just Cancel it all?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Re-Posted Sep 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Back during the Great Depression, there were people who theorized that gold hoarding was preventing economic recovery. There is always this same theory that people who save hoarding their money and are not spending it results in the lack of a recovery suppressing demand. This theory has been around for a very long time. It assumes a recovery is always blocked by people hoarding their money and saving for a rainy day.
Back during the American Civil War, the federal government issued paper currency for the first time after the Revolution. Much of this currency paid interest. Some were in the form of virtually circulating bonds with coupons for the interest payments. Some were backed by gold. Others offered a table on the reverse providing a schedule. The interest baring notes remained valid currency, but the interest expired within a specific time period. Hence, one would redeem the note since it would no longer pay interest beyond a specific date.
The rumbling behind the curtain I am hearing is a growing idea of making the currency in Europe simply expire. I have explained before that in Europe currency routinely expires – even in Britain. The United States has never canceled its currency so a note from the Civil War is still legal tender. But that is not the case in Europe.
Europeans are accustomed to having their money simply expire. This is not limited to paper currency. They also cancel the coins. The proposal being whispered in the dark halls of Europe is that perhaps the way to impose negative rates to force people to spend is to just cancel all the currency and authorize only small notes for pocket change. They want everyone to be forced to use bank cards and this is the new theory to revitalize the economy.
The chart patterns for the Euro are about as long-term bearish as one can imagine. The problem facing the world economy is this idea that they can even FORCE people to spend their savings recklessly as the government does. Canceling the euro may be a drastic and desperate step, but it is being proposed as an alternative to deep negative interest rates which have failed to work for more than 10 years. The middle ground proposes a paper currency with expiration dates.
Either way, the risk of a profound dollar rally remains in the wings. The powers behind the curtain desperately want to defeat Trump for they know he would NEVER cancel the American currency. To pull that off, they need a career politician. Joe Biden would be perfect. He might just sign whatever bill is put before him and then take a nap. It is ironic, but there would be a lot of Americans who would wake up and want Trump bank after that one. Joe would be too tired to tweet.
The Club & Why the Majority Must be Always Wrong
Armstrong Economics Blog/Training Tools
Re-Posted Sep 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I did my own research on the 1998 Russian collapse. All the big names lost billions. Even the New York Times reported that George Soros lost $2 billion. You were the only one who made money so it made sense that you were named hedge fund manager of the year in 1998. My question is this. Since all the big names were involved in the Russia trade which took down Long-Term Capital Management, is this why you call them the “club” for they all do seem to be involved in the same trade?
DU
ANSWER: Correct. This is also why they try to prevent people from listening to me. They are convinced that the reason they lost was that I was too influential and had too many institutions listening to me. That absurdity is what they ran to the government with, so I was then accused of “manipulating” the world economy. They all lost after I warned them and refused to join in their takeover of Russia I believe I was given the nod by the Clintons. They told me they had the IMF in their back pocket and they would continue to fund Russia. I warned them that the IMF got their funding from governments and they were not going to back it.
The Russian financial crisis hit Russia on the 17th of August 1998. Our World Economic Conference was held in London that June. Our forecast was then published by the London Financial Times on the front page of the second section.
They did not give up. After they got the Federal Reserve to bail them out, they then focused on setting up Yeltsin and got him to divert $7 billion in IMF loans. Even CNN reported the money was stolen from the IMF.
CNN Theft of IMF Money – Sep. 1, 1999
Edmond Safra’s Republic National Bank ran to the Department of Justice and then reported that a $7 billion money laundering scheme just went through Bank of New York. They attempted to blackmail Yeltsin to step down and appoint their guy; Yeltsin then turned to Putin. It was the US bankers, with the support of the Clintons, who first tried to interfere into Russian elections. This is why Putin was not friendly to Clinton and said Mueller could come to question anyone in Russia he liked, provided Russia could question Americans including Bill Browder who was Safra’s partner in Hermitage Capital.
While “The Forecaster” was shown even on TV throughout Europe, Canada, and Asia, the question is WHY was it banned in the United States? If it was just a conspiracy theory, they could care less. When something strikes closer to home, they ban it.
The World through Everyone’s Eyes
Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts
Re-Posted Sep 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Sir,
I appreciate that I may not always agree with what you write but I listen and examine and respect your viewpoint. You, in turn, have answered my many questions and discussed my comments with respect in return.
This makes me worry that the ability to discuss problems in a straightforward and thoughtful way may not be possible in the future.
Keep up the good work
F
REPLY: In order to be an international adviser, the very first lessons I learned was (1) listen to everyone, and (2) view the world through their eyes.
I was giving a lecture in Geneva to a small group of institutions back in 1982 but some had flown in from other countries. One was from Canada and the exchange was quite interesting. I had provided the forecasts on the individual currencies and then I moved to the commodities. The Canadian asked so he should be a buyer of gold and I said yes. The on Swiss institution said yes but your forecast on the Swiss franc would mean I would lose money.
When I looked at it in terms of each perspective it was clear. The rally in gold would be impressive only in US$ and CD$ so it was a buy for the Canadian and a sell for the Swiss. Indeed, the rally into 1983 was a strong rally for gold in US$ and CD$, but not in Swiss.
We all have a view and money to each of us is still a mental calculation based upon our home currency. To even do my job, I have to be able to see the world from all perspectives. We are all human and we will all act in our own self-interest.
My clients have trained me. Having to deal with many crises around the world forced me to see the world through global eyes. This is why MY DEFINITION of what constitutes a bull market is something which rises in ALL CURRENCIES!!!!!
We will all never agree for we will always see things through our own pair of glasses. Never forget, others will respond in the same way.
My philosophy is very simple. There should be no law which compels others to act in a way I believe if correct provided their actions do not harm anyone else. I leave you alone and you leave me alone and we can all get along. I object to politics that seeks to exploit class warfare for historically that has ALWAYS, and without exception, led to civil wa
Cambria CEO Marty Davis: “You cannot have free trade with a dictatorship that is harvesting the prosperity of an American Democracy”…
September 5, 2019
This is another one of the rare interviews where an American CEO calls out the specifics of how Wall Street greed created the China problem that pummeled Main Street.
Cambria CEO Marty Davis discusses the root of the trade issues with China and President Trump’s efforts to address the problem. He accurately calls attention to the origin of the issue; and then brilliantly explains the current consequences of decisions made by an alignment of Wall Street interests and powerful U.S. politicians.
CTH readers will notice a significant amount of similarity in the words and phrases Mr. Davis uses to describe the issues. This guy gets it.
This is well worth nine minutes of your time. Mr. Davis really gets it, and is not afraid to call the baby ugly. His criticisms are so spot-on accurate they made Maria Bartiromo uncomfortable in broadcast. These things are usually not said. Must Watch:
German Industrial Orders Plunge – The Surface Reason is China – The Underneath Reason is Trump…
September 5, 2019
Boy howdy if ever there was an article that showed the layers and ramifications of President Trump’s global trade reset, this is a good one. The multinational media do not want American voters to understand the dynamic, because if we did people would catch-on to how the global economy was structured upon removal of U.S. wealth…
Reuters is reporting on a significant drop in German industrial orders, and they specifically point to diminished orders from the U.K (small part) and China (big part) as the cause. However, the analysis stops at the part where China’s lack of industrial orders is the leading contribution to retraction in the German export sector.
What the financial analysis does not approach (ie. the third rail of multinational corporate admission that must never be outlined), is the reason why Chinese orders for German industrial goods have dropped.
The problem for China, and ultimately for Germany, is that Trump’s trade reset has stopped a big amount of U.S. wealth from arriving in Beijing. Simultaneously, Beijing is countering Trump’s tariffs by devaluing their currency. The rebound economic impact is doubled. China has: (1) less income; and (2) less value within their own currency.
Where does this dynamic show up?…. Anytime China is going to buy something.
China’s currency devaluation makes their exports cheaper; however, at the same time it makes any of their imports more expensive. As a consequence China buys less… and that now exhibits in lower purchases of German stuff. See how that happens?
So yeah, the ramifications for Merkel’s German economy -twice as bad as originally forecast- are based on China fighting Trump. The fact that China is bleeding cash, and has simultaneously dropped the value of their currency, means China can’t buy stuff.
All of those nations who were counting on Chinese purchases are now going bananas. This is why the multinationals blame Donald Trump… and to make matters even worse – the U.S. economy is thriving, while they watch from the sidelines. It’s a delicious dynamic.
For more than three decades global economies have grown by removing wealth from the United States. The U.S. multinationals have countered the economic arguments by claiming those global economies have purchased U.S. treasuries; but that means we trade our current wealth for future debt.
President Trump has reversed this dynamic. We are repatriating our national wealth through new trade policies, and will pay for any incurred foreign debt by expanding our own economy and controlling our own destiny.
Here’s Reuters article (emphasis mine):
BERLIN (Reuters) – Weaker demand from abroad drove a bigger-than-expected drop in German industrial orders in July, suggesting that struggling manufacturers could tip Europe’s biggest economy into a recession in the third quarter.
Germany’s export-reliant economy is suffering from slower global growth and business uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ trade policies and Britain’s planned, but delayed, exit from the European Union.
Contracts for ‘Made in Germany’ goods fell 2.7% from the previous month in July, data showed on Thursday, driven by a big drop in bookings from non-euro zone countries, the economy ministry said. That undershot a Reuters consensus forecast for a 1.5% drop.
“The misery in manufacturing continues. The decline in new orders significantly increases the risk of a recession for the German economy,” VP Bank analyst Thomas Gitzel said.
Germany’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter on weaker exports, with the decrease in foreign sales mainly driven by Britain and below average demand from China.
“The danger is great that negative growth will also be recorded in the third quarter,” Gitzel added. (read more)
More Panda/Wall Street Head-Faking: Beijing Announces October Trade Talks With U.S. Delegation…
September 5, 2019
CTH readers are well versed in the dynamics of the Panda mask -vs- Dragon motives of China. Therefore we are able to discuss events without the MSM financial filter; which is narrated specifically to the benefit of multinational interests. Always keep that in mind.
Everything needed to understand the latest panda narrative from Beijing is identified in this simple paragraph:
(Beijing) […] The talks were supposed to have resumed this month but China’s commerce ministry said Vice Premier Liu He, Beijing’s pointman on trade, agreed to October in a phone call with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday. (more)
First, anything from Vice Premier Liu He is panda-speak; he is a tool in the process of Chinese narrative engineering. All former trade negotiation authority held by Liu He was stripped by Chairman Xi Jinping. Commerce Minister Zhong Shan is the real voice of Xi and the Beijing authority.
Second, what exactly is Beijing selling? An “October phone call”…. and that manipulates markets for the multinationals on Wall Street. A friggin’ announcement of a phone call?
Beijing is attempting to stop the financial bleed; the organization and planning of exits from the Chinese manufacturing system. Notice the U.S. media ran to the typeset pushing quoted reports from Beijing, not quoting reports from the USTR office or U.S. trade team. Again, the quote from the Associated Foreign Press (AFP):
…”China and the United States will resume trade talks in Washington in early October, Beijing said on Thursday”…
President Trump will not block, refute or diminish, this specifically sold Beijing narrative because it increases the U.S. stock market valuation. However, no-one who really pays attention to the dance should put any weight behind the announcement. It’s pure panda.
The U.S. position is the same. U.S. interests doing business in China should ‘get out’. Those who choose to remain in China; and/or those who choose to join with Beijing in selling false-hope in a temporary effort to prop up their multinational stock values; will eventually run into the brick wall of reality.
We can discuss this here, because the dance has been so visible for so long we know the music before it plays…. ie. ‘conduct your affairs accordingly’.
Today’s jump in the stock market; the part centered around this announcement from Beijing; is based on a false premise.
Beijing is bleeding cash. Beijing is attempting to get to 2020 and will deploy all resources to eliminate President Trump. Beijing is trying to save their economic model and stop the exodus from their manufacturing base.
There will be no U.S-China trade deal.
Any U.S. corporation who makes a decision based on the false-hope implied in the Chinese messaging is going to hit a world of hurt when it all comes crashing down.
Don’t expect any sympathies from these pages.
Centinel2012 