Milton Friedman Myths v Reality


 

The Coming Coin Shortage


The Federal Reserve also established a U.S. Coin Task Force

Dr. Ileana Johnson Paugh image

Re-Posted from the Canada Free Press By  —— Bio and ArchivesJuly 22, 2020

The Coming Coin Shortage

As if the global economic disaster caused by the Chinese Covid-19 viral pandemic was not bad enough, the looming global “coin shortage” and the “unknown pneumonia” (Covid-20?) in Kazakhstan are here.

Why exactly do we have a coin shortage?

  • Banks tell us that the Fed are not releasing enough coins.
  • Armstrong Economics wrote that faith in governments has been eroded. It sees governments as promoters of the idea that money is dirty, and the solution is to eliminate coins and paper money even though physical money as a medium of exchange has been in circulation for centuries.
  • The U.S. Treasury reported a disruption in the coin supply chain and its velocity of circulation due to the lockdowns and the huge reduction in consumption in the last four months of forced lockdowns in all 50 states. People shopped mostly for food and avoided all other venues of direct commerce for fear of Covid-19 infection and because so many places were closed. Many shopped online or in large retailers like Costco, Target, Walmart, and Amazon.
  • Allegedly, the U.S. Mint has minted less coins to protect employees from COVID-19. It is an interesting issue to ponder since minting coins and printing paper currency are highly automated operations, with expensive computers driving the printing and minting presses and requiring very few employees, mostly in checking roles to make sure the machines run properly and the mint/print are done correctly, as well as controlling the quality of each batch that is bound and packaged for distribution and circulation.
  • Some central banks are sterilizing money with UV light to prevent the spread of viral infections.
  • The Fed purportedly quarantined for ten days U.S. dollars returning from Europe and Asia.

The U.S. Treasury sees the current coin shortage in U.S. businesses as a decrease in velocity of various coins in circulation. The Treasury estimated the value of coins in circulation in April 2020 of $47.8 billion as an adequate coin supply, larger than last year’s supply of coins by at least half a billion. But the closing of retail shops, many permanently, bank branches, transit authorities, and laundromats due to Covid-19 fears, eliminated the typical places where coins enter circulation.

Nobody knows exactly if people are hoarding coins on purpose or if the businesses that have closed temporarily or permanently have cleared out all their cash registers of coins and paper currency.

“The coin supply chain includes many participants, from the U.S. Mint who produces new coin, to the Federal Reserve who distributes coin on the U.S. Mint’s behalf, to armored carriers, banks, retailers and consumers, all of whom have a role to play in helping to resolve this issue.”

On June 11, the Federal Reserve announced the Strategic Allocation of Coin Inventories which was a temporary coin order allocation in all Reserve Bank offices and Federal Reserve coin distribution locations effective June 15, 2020.

The Federal Reserve also established a U.S. Coin Task Force in early July to deal with disruptions to normal coin circulation.  All interested parties participated – U.S. Mint, Federal Reserve, armored carriers, American Bankers Association, Independent Community Bankers Association, National Association of Federal Credit Unions, Coin aggregator representatives, and retail trade industry.

The Federal Reserve said that “it is confident that the coin inventory issues will resolve once the economy opens more broadly and the coin supply chain returns to normal circulation patterns, however, “it recognizes that these measures alone will not be enough to resolve near-term issues.”

Hoarding Cash and the plan to Eliminate cash!


The reason there is a shortage of cash developing around the world is rather straight-forward. The trust in the government is collapsing. Italy has just lowered the legal amount someone can pay for anything in cash from €3000 to €2000. Australia made it a criminal act to pay for anything with A$10,000 or more (US$7,000).  In Switzerland, the limit on cash you can withdraw from an ATM is CHF5,000. In Germany, the limitation is typically €1000. Greeks abroad will be able to withdraw up to 5,000 euros ($5,800) a month.

In the United States, the US Treasury says the pandemic has significantly disrupted the supply chain and circulation patterns of US coins. Additionally, the US Mint has been printing fewer coins to protect its employees from COVID-19. The World Health Organization (WHO) has not advised banning paper money, but it has stressed the need for handwashing after touching cash, which is a subtle caution that money should be limited. Some central banks are deploying measures to sterilize paper money with heat or UV light. Even the Fed began a seven to 10-day quarantine for United States dollars returning to the country from Europe and Asia.

It is very clear that governments are trying to paint money as dirty, and the solution is to eliminate physical money, despite the fact that it has been in use since about the 7th century BC. All of a sudden, it is a danger after 28 centuries. This plays nicely into the Socialist’s dream to control everything!

Milton Friedman – What is America?


 

Trend in Interest Rates


COMMENT: Marty,

Good morning. Repo rates have been creeping up ever so slightly and quietly. Points wise not much, but percentage-wise, numbers are getting bigger. Has everybody been lulled to sleep and looking the wrong way again?

Best,
E

REPLY: The shift from a Public to a Private wave is in full motion. We can see this in Moody’s AAA Corporate Bond Index. Note that the while chaotic swing in March ran right up to the top of the Downtrend Channel and then we have swung down and just closed below the bottom of the channel. We have an important turning point arriving in October. We show the next major turning point in the US 30-year bonds being September.

These governments imposing lockdowns again are acting political rather than in the best interest of the people. Locking people down results in a collapse of tax revenue. Many in the USA have been promised by the Democrats they will be bailed out if they win the White House right down to their pension funds. This is what is going on behind the curtain – cutting deals.

Clearly, these governments are not stupid. They have to realize how much revenue has collapsed and how much damage they have caused to the people and the economy. Our models are projecting HIGHER interest rates ahead and this reflects their high-risk gamble on trying to overthrow Trump. What they fail to grasp is that the private sector has lost all confidence in governments and as such, they have destroyed the old financial system of perpetual borrowing.

As fiscal mismanagement abounds, interest rates will rise to reflect credit risk. The central banks are powerless to prevent this rise. The Fed cannot buy all state debt any more than the ECB will be authorized to buy all sovereign debt in the Eurozone. We have reached the point of no return.