Posted originally on Apr 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I just had to say thank you. I kept a copy of your private post What Are the Markets Telling Us? from FEBRUARY 24, 2024. Your model called for a high in January, the false move to retest support in February, and a resumption of the trend into April. You have taught me so much about how markets move. Only a fool buys and holds, expecting every month to be higher.
Keep up the great reports. This is when many say we need you the most.
Jeb
That Post 2/24/24 Was:
The UK has a slightly different pattern from continental Europe. Germany shows a Panic Cycle in June. But the targets are shaping up as May and July. Blending in gold, January was high, and Feb has retested support, yet softly. Volatility should rise now going into March, and April 19/20th is the ECM turning point of the Ukraine/Russia War, followed by the main ECM target of May 7th. Here, too, we see rising volatility in gold from May into August, with a Panic Cycle in September and the peak in volatility in November probably related to the 2024 election.
ANSWER: Thank you. Everything moves in a cycle. Many of the great discoveries come only from observing how markets trade. John Law traded on the exchange in Amsterdam and came up with the theory of Supply and demand.
Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the floor in Amsterdam, representing the English Crown. He saw how Henry VIII’s debasement of money caused people to hoard the older money, which actually shrank the money supply, forcing the state to debase even more. He came up with the idea that bad money drives good money out of circulation.
I invented capital flow analysis because, in the ’80s, I, too, observed how capital was rushing around the world, driving markets up and down. If you do not open your eyes, you will remain nothing more than the fool on the hill.
Only a fool refuses to learn about the markets. If you cannot grasp this basic fundamental principle, forget investment; you are just a fool who will lose everything. There are always false moves. That is how the market is propelled by moving in the opposite direction, creating bull and bear traps. Every rally in gold for 19 years was touted as this time will be different. When they failed, they blamed the bankers. NOBODY but NOBODY can manipulate any market, altering its trend. They can push the market around within the scope of support and resistance. But they cannot change the trend no matter what.
All the bankers and hedge funds were on the same trade with Russia. I was invited down to the dinner they put on to buy influence in the IMF at the National Gallery. I told them the market would crash and refused to join. When it crashed, they blamed me rather than admit they were all wrong. If they were so powerful, why do they always blow themselves up with Russia, mortgage-backed securities, you name it?
No market can be manipulated against its inherent trend. Anyone who claims gold was suppressed because it was manipulated simply was an excuse because their analysis was wrong. That is total BS to claim any market can be manipulated, converting a bull to a bear market. Everything is arbitraged on a global scale.
The majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is what creates the crash. They are all long, try to get out, and there is no bid. Look at the Slinky moving down the steps. The opposite side gains the majority of power and then pulls the other side down, and so on. This is how the markets move. It is always a battle between bulls and bears, which is why the markets can never go in one direction. The same is true about everything, including climate change. The climate has always changed the same as markets have always risen and fallen, only to rise again. Marxism did not understand this fundamental, and it, like some gold bugs, tried to make the economy rise and never fall back into recession.
The French physicist Jean Foucault discovered what is known as the Foucault Pendulum. He proved that the earth rotated on its axis. The pendulum was constantly moving back and forth like markets by its own inertia. In the course of 24 hours, the floor moved in a circle. Since you are standing next to this pendulum at the Houston Museum of Natural Science, the illusion is that it moves in a circle when you and the floor are fixed on Earth.
NOT EVERYTHING IS WHAT IT SEEMS – ONLY A FOOL REFUSES TO SEE
Posted originally on Feb 28, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I have been considering the issues of whether the affirmative defense of qualified and other immunity defenses are or are not available to employees of states and cities if the complaint seeks only equitable relief and not money damages, and whether such defendants can avail themselves of the immunity defenses if they are sued in their official capacities and not their personal capacities. The basic rule of most Circuits, including the Fifth, is that if you sue a public employee their official capacity, and the complaint seeks only equitable relief and not monetary damages, the public employee defendant cannot assert immunity defenses.
I once followed the Third Circuit case of Bakara v. McGreevey481 F.3d 187 (3rd Cir 2007) that involved those issues, and I obtained a copy of the Petition for Writ of Certiorari filed in SCOTUS. See attached. That petition talks about the split in the Circuits at the time and addresses said issues. I concluded that decisions of the Second, Third, and Eleventh Circuits are very confusing on the said issues, and I was glad I was in the Fifth Circuit. The discussion in the said Petition for Writ of Certiorari in Bakara v. McGreeveymust, of course, be brought to date on the issues, but assuming there is still a split in the Circuits that could “open a door,” the following moves made by the defendants in New York v. Trump, et alcould shut down the Hochul, Engoron and James fiasco, specifically any proceedings to execute on the judgment based on the verdict:
FILE A COMPLAINT against Hochul, Engoron and James IN THEIR OFFICIAL CAPACITIES, NOT IN THEIR PERSONAL CAPACITIES. The complaint would allege that the 8th Amendment was violated in New York v. Trump, et al. The complaint would seek ONLY EQUITABLE RELIEF as follows:
(1) A declaratory judgment stating
(a) the definition of “restitution” and “damages” as set forth in New York Executive Law § 63(12), (b) the formula the court used, or should use, to calculate the amount of the verdict/judgment, and (c) whether what is called “damages and restitution” in the statute is really a fine, penalty or some hybrid form of damages;
(2) prospective injunctive relief, i.e., a TRO [Temporary Restraining Order], a preliminary injunction, and a permanent injunction against Hochul, Engoron, and James in their official capacities prohibiting them from taking any action in the future to enforce the judgment. Seeking only equitable relief and not damages may mean that Hochul, Engoron and James cannot plead the defense of qualified and other immunities. Lawyers always want to include a deep pocket defendant to get a money judgment, so they shoot themselves in the foot by seeking personal money judgments against employees of a municipality or a state. There are many cases on this type of complaint, but I am familiar with two where the plaintiff’s lawyers sought ONLY equitable relief and not damages against public employees in their official capacities. See Gorby v. Davis and Center for Biological Diversity v. Ken Sakazar
{Plaintiffs in Gorby v. Davis filed action against Interior and FWS to set aside FWS’s finding that the desert bald eagle does not qualify as a distinct population segment (“DPS”) entitled to protection under the Endangered Species Act (“ESA”). Plaintiff’s motions for summary judgment was granted. The Court found that FWS’ 12–month finding was based on the 2007 delisting rule, which failed to comport with the notice, comment, and consultation requirements of the ESA. The Court set aside the 12–month finding as an abuse of discretion.}
THE VENUE WOULD BE the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of New York located in the James T. Foley U.S. Courthouse, Suite 509, 445 Broadway, Albany, NY 12207. Hochul is domiciled in the New York State Executive Mansion, the official residence of the governor of New York. The Executive Mansion is located at 138 Eagle Street in Albany, New York, near the state capital. The Executive Mansion has housed governors and their families since 1875. This avoids filing in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
Best regards.
EGM
REPLY: I think your analysis speaks to this very issue of the perversion of law. Given that the 8th Amendment prohibits cruel and unusual punishment, I fail to see how courts can create immunity to violate the Constitution they swear to uphold. In that case, the Third Circuit’s decision extended legislative immunity far beyond the bounds of the Constitution, effectively conferring absolute legislative immunity on any activity by executive officials with even a slight connection to the legislative process.
The Supreme Court just heard an oral argument in SEC v Jaresy (22-859) on November 29th, 2023, which could also impact the Trump Case. The Dodd-Frank Act passed in the aftermath of the 2007 Crash vested the SEC with the authority to sue “any person” for violations of the securities acts, including anti-fraud claims, in its own internal administrative tribunals. That was, in my opinion, unconstitutional. This Act circumvented the Seventh Amendment and the right to a jury trial.
The Seventh Amendment guarantees the right to trial by jury in “suits at common law,” encompassing legal, as opposed to equitable, claims for penalties. The Supreme Court had long held that the touchstone for the applicability of Seventh Amendment rights was the practice of the courts of England in 1791 when the Seventh Amendment was ratified. Therefore, that history establishes that eighteenth-century English courts afforded jury trial rights that included civil enforcement actions prosecuted by the Crown whenever the right of private property was at stake, as in suits for penalties.
We all may know that the Magna Carta established rights that were forced on King John (1166–1216) to sign on June 15, 1215, at the demands of the elite barons. The reason for that was rather important – the common man was not taxed, only the rich. A tax revolt over government abuse was at the core of this entire issue. The abuse was so profound that part of the demand included the right to trial by jury because the King would fine you whatever he pleased to really raise money.
At the time, it was said that there was hardly an Englishman who had not been amerced at least once a year. An amercement is a financial penalty in English law. It was an abuse where the king made revenue from fines during the Middle Ages. The noun “amercement” is derived from the verb “amerce,” which means the king amerces his subject, who offended some law that goes back to Anglo-Norman origin, literally meaning “being at the mercy of” your sovereign.
Therefore, in forming this nation, there was a contest between the Federalists of Hamilton, who wanted immense power for the government, and the Anti-Federalists. It may surprise many, but Patrick Henry, who every school child was taught in his memorable 1775 declaration, “Give me liberty or give me death,” refused to sign the Constitution because there was no Bill of Rights.
The king was circumventing your right to a jury trial after the Magna Carta by charging you in vice-admiralty courts where there was no right to a jury. The draft constitution’s omission of a common law jury trial right was the primary objection that nearly scuttled ratification. The Anti-Federalists carried the day in pushing through the Seventh Amendment, in large part to assure that the government could not put citizens to trial for penalties without the intervention of a jury.
That is precisely what NYC did to Trump, and they did that to me as well. It is a vile place where nobody in their right mind should do business. Will they have to go after anyone with a loan and argue they overvalued their property even after repaying it to prove this was not a political hit on only Trump? Even the New York Times explained that this statute has never before been used in a case that was not criminal fraud.
Here, we have a statute where the penalty was in the judge’s hands — there was no jury — and it gave him wide discretion to do precisely what the Eighth Amendment was to prevent. This is intended to bankrupt Trump to interfere in the 2024 election. The last time states did this to ban a candidate from the ballot was in 1860 and the ban against Abraham Lincoln. That led to civil war. Democrats in Washington are already saying if Trump is elected, they will REFUSE to comply with any of his orders. This is the end of the United States, and the Civil Unrest coming post-2024, as forecasted by our computer, is now becoming more understandable.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America