Category Economic Subjects

Mar 17 2022

Energy Secretary Admits White House Using Ukraine Crisis as “Urgent Moment” To Transition US to Clean Energy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 16, 2022 | Sundance 

Following the familiar pattern of never letting a crisis go to waste, the Biden administration has now admitted their intent, with the opportunity Ukraine represents, is to fundamentally change the U.S. energy program to Green New Deal objectives.

As they did with the COVID crisis, it is not the actual crisis that matters, but the government response to the crisis.  That response is what triggers the fundamental change.  As noted by Keeler, “there is no reason a contained conflict on the edges of Europe should be fundamentally altering the global financial system. The hysterical overreaction is doing that, as it was intended to.”

The same approach applies to oil and a totally new energy program. Jennifer Granholm claims that the crisis in Europe is an “urgent moment” to transition to “clean energy.”  Secretary Jennifer Granholm made the admission recently during remarks at a climate change discussion, while seated next to John Podesta {Direct Rumble Link}, WATCH:

Mar 17 2022

U.S. Retail Sales Collapse as Govt and Media Attempt Denial That Economy Is Contracting


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 16, 2022 | Sundance 

Move along, move along folks… please do not pay attention to the fire raging downtown, the suburbs are so nice this time of year… move along folks, look shiny Ukraine thing over there…

When retail sales are calculated, they are calculated in dollars.  Any recorded increase in retail sales that does not exceed the price increases in those items is factually reflecting a drop in units sold.

Ex. – if you sell 300 items at $1.00 each, you have $300 in sales.  If you sell 250 items at $1.25 each, you have $312.50 in sales.  Technically, you have a 4.1% increase in sales.  However, you have sold 17% less items (50 units).

When you are selling less stuff, your business (economy) is contracting, not expanding.  We have been in this contracting cycle (an actual production recession) since May/June of last year; however, the contraction has not been recognized because massive inflation is hiding it.  That, my friends, is the painful truth and it spells big trouble ahead.

(AP) […] Retail sales increased 0.3% after registering a revised 4.9% jump from December to January, fueled by wage gains, solid hiring and more money in banking accounts, according to the Commerce Department. January’s increase was the biggest jump in spending since last March, when American households received a final federal stimulus check of $1,400.

Business at furniture and home furnishing stores fell 1% in February, while sales at consumer electronics and appliance stores slipped 0.6%. General merchandise stores saw business down 0.2%, while online sales fell 3.7%. Restaurant sales rose 2.5% as shoppers shift more of their spending to services as the threat of COVID-19 fades. (read more)

Take the figures above and compare them to the sector inflation in February (Table-2, BLS Report)  – Just sticking to what is above:

  • Furniture prices rose 0.8% in Feb, total furniture sales dropped 1.0%
  • Electronics and appliances rose around 1.8% in Feb, sales dropped 0.6%
  • Online sales items rose in price around 0.5%, sales dropped 3.7%

.

What this reflects is an actual contraction much greater than the dollar drop in sales.   In most cases the unit sales dropped at a rate six times the price difference.  If you reverse engineer the math, the average is approximately a 15% reduction in durable good units purchased.

In a very macro perspective, that means the U.S. economy overall has approximately 15% too much labor in the sectors associated with the categories of goods that people have stopped purchasing.  This means people working in the durable goods sector, production, assembly, transportation, delivery and retail sales staff, are about to get laid off work, RIF’d and downsized.

Math is math, and inflation clouds the realities of the economy.

Ordinary people are prioritizing spending and watching their wages get chewed up by higher prices for food, energy, fuel and housing.  If you live in a predominantly working class or blue-collar area, when you start seeing contraction locally, you can be sure it will show up nationally.

Prepare for a long-duration recession, combined with increasingly costly energy costs.

However, do not distress yourself with dark imaginings.  Instead, empower yourself.  Take action today to evaluate your expenses and then ask how can I lower those expense costs by modifying my habits?  Think strategically about convenience -vs- costs -vs- how much your own time is worth.

You may not need to modify anything.  Or you may need to reevaluate priorities in order to help your kids or grandkids.

Be wise.

Be the hero for your family.

Be strong.

Be proactive.

Above all, be thankful to a loving God.  No weapon formed against you shall prosper.

Stay humble in your expectations, stay connected to your stabilized core self, and embrace fellowship.

This too shall pass.

#FJB

Mar 16 2022

World Bank Warns Against Hoarding and Russia Turns to the Yuan


Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow Re-Posted Mar 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There will be a run on gas and food, the World Bank inadvertently reported. World Bank President David Malpass is warning people not to hoard essentials amid runaway inflation and monetary policies that continue to worsen every variable of the situation. Malpass simply said he expects nations to begin or continue resourcing energy and food/food supplies outside of Russia. “The right thing to do in these current circumstances is not to go out and buy extra flour or extra gasoline, it’s to recognize that the world is a dynamic global economy and will respond. There’ll be enough to go around,” he warned.

As our models predicted, China will soon become the financial capital of the world. The yuan accounted for 13.1% of Russia’s central bank’s foreign currency as of June 2021, compared to only 0.1% during the same month of 2017. China remains Russia’s top gas export, ahead of even the EU, with China purchasing $79.3 billion in 2021 (56% solely from energy exports). Russia is now using the yuan as its foreign reserve currency. China is not confiscating assets from Russian civilians under the infuriating theory of conspiracy.

The situation for many will only deteriorate from here. I wish I could provide a more optimistic forecast, but I must go off what the models state rather than my own hopes or opinions. Again, the World Bank is now acknowledging that food and energy will become scarce.

Mar 16 2022

Uber and Lyft Charging Gas Surcharge Fees


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Mar 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Both Uber and Lyft announced plans to add a fuel surcharge for all rides and deliveries. The average driver in the US is now paying $4.32 per gallon of regular-grade fuel. In comparison, the average driver was only paying $2.86 for regular fuel one year ago, which was considered high at the time.

Uber will add a fee of $0.45 to $0.55 per trip, and deliveries will cost an additional $0.35 to $0.45. The company is implementing surcharges in the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. They believe the surcharge will last for two months, which seems baseless considering the energy crisis shows no signs of slowing. The surcharge will apply to electric vehicles as well.

Lyft followed suit and added a surcharge as well. “Driver earnings overall remain elevated compared to last year, but given the rapid rise in gas prices we’ll be asking riders to pay a temporary fuel surcharge, all of which will go to drivers,” CEO CJ Macklin said. Both companies said that the extra payment will go directly to their drivers, but driving for either company may seem less appealing. The average cost of gas is up over $0.26 in the past week, and the surcharge is likely not enough to account for the extra costs that drivers will face at the pump.

Mar 16 2022

Poking the Panda


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Japan has made the very same mistake just the following orders from Washington about seizing Russian assets. The Japanese government is freezing the assets of 17 more Russian politicians tycoons, and their relatives to step up sanctions and pressure Moscow to end its invasion of Ukraine. Russia froze, in turn, a list of US politicians which interestingly included Hillary Clinton because she was behind the whole 2000 attempt to blackmail Yeltsin which the American Press will never report no less investigate

Meanwhile, things are heating now around Taiwan as the US has for the first time in several years, sent an American aircraft carrier just outside China’s maritime waters demonstrating its’s read to launch World War III. China’s military leadership has put the country’s Armed Forces on alert for 12 days while they have now ordered the largest airborne and amphibious landing exercise in their military history.

China is moving rapidly to circumvent not just the SWIFT clearing system, but also to establish the Yuan as the next coming leading currency. The Euro has failed and China is negotiating even the purchase of oil from Saudi Arabia denominated in Yuan. The arrogance of the Neocons in really running the country has become well known outside the USA. They think they really can defeat both China and Russia and then Build Back Better with w new Bretton Woods. All I can say is they are seriously wrong and they will only create World War III, they will lose, and the financial capital of the world will shift to China. That has been the forecast of our computer for decades now and instead of listening, they try to defeat it.

The Chinese economy will peak in 2036 but the West in 2032. We are in the last three waves and 2023 does not look good around the world.

Mar 16 2022

The Insanity of the Biden Administration – Decline & Fall of the West


Armstrong Economics Blog/Neocons Re-Posted Mar 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Biden Administration has been fully subordinated to the Great Reset. It is highly debatable if Joe is really doing anything. During an international crisis, he still takes off weekends and heads to Delaware. Gee, perhaps I should run for President and get weekends off instead of having to work 7 days a week during a crisis. OMG – I never knew I could work less as a leader of the questionable free world given the 2 years of COVID imprisonment.

Biden’s pick of Sarah Bloom Raskin for the Chair of the Federal Reserve will completely destroy the integrity of the Federal Reserve. Installing another Climate Change zealot is just beyond belief. There is no aspect of the economy that the Biden Administration has not undermined which he is desperately trying to blame inflation of Putin. From the perspective of China and Russia, they are watching their greatest adversary commit suicide. One does not step in to prevent that for it becomes an easy victory. Biden is even trying to cut a nuclear deal with Iran, which is the leading terrorist nation that was kept at bay by Saddam in Iraq who we removed. Biden will hand them money which will only be used against the United States. They will join Russia and China against the West – make no stupid mistake about that.

In all honesty, I have NEVER seen such total propaganda coming from ANY Administration as that of this one. No lie was told by any previous administration Republican or Democrat that has ever reached the level of total absurdity as what is coming from Biden and Pelosi. Pelosi actually said that government spending no longer increases the National Debt. The only possible way for that to happen is you stop borrowing and just create money. The end of Keynesian Economics. In Pelosi’s own words she actually said:

“When we’re having this discussion, it’s important to dispel some of those who say, well it’s the government spending. No, it isn’t. The government spending is doing the exact reverse, reducing the national debt. It is not inflationary.”

Then Pelosi claims that it is “Global Inflation” and that is why this is Putin’s fault. But sanctions have never work not even once in history, and they knew imposing these drastic sanctions would further the commodity shortage they already caused with the lockdowns. Then in the middle of international war, the Navy actually refused to deploy a warship because its Commander remained Unvaccinated! So you cannot defend the country unless you are vaccinated? I am sure Xi and Putin are having the biggest laugh of their life.

We are heading into war because this is not just part of the Great Reset to recreate another Bretton Woods and default on National Debts that have become no longer sustainable, but the Biolabs conducting “research” as the Neocons claim, were involved in creating Bioweapons that genetically target specific ethnic groups. They have collected a lot of DNA samples with all the COVID tests. Remember Macron refused a COVID Test by Russia because they would then have his DNA. Once you have a person’s DNA, you can create a disease that is targeted that will kill just that person. The biological weapons have advanced and this is what Russia and China are concerned about where the Neocons refuse to allow inspections.

Putin has been very consistent about stopping the advancement of NATO. It was 51.6 weeks into the Biden Administration when Russia insisted that Finland not join NATO which they rejected. In the Balkans, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has obscured the intentions of Bosnia and Herzegovina to also join NATO, which Moscow vehemently opposes. We are looking at Serbia, which is pro-Russian, also looking to oppose NATO on their border. While the West claims that NATO is defensive and not offensive, that is not what their actions suggest. They have kept trying to move forward against Russia and once NATO troops enter, they bring mobile nuclear weapons. For Ukraine to have entered NATO, that would have been the same threat to Russia as when they attempted to install nuclear weapons in Cuba during the Kennedy Administration.

In war, both sides twist the facts to support their own agenda. These Neocons have been pushing US policy regardless of the administration. The only one who stood up against them was Trump which is why they had to ensure he was removed.  Presidents appear to be afraid of the Neocons for they are a government of their own within the government.

Here is that interview where Chuck Schumer confirms that no politician will EVER investigate the intelligence branch or the Neocons for they hold unbridled power to do as they like when they like. The Neocons create the narrative and they direct the country to their agenda.

We must be focused on the weeks of 03/28, 06/06, and 09/12 geopolitically looking ahead and 2023 looks crazy both in geopolitical terms as well as economically.

Mar 16 2022

Russia, India Exploring New Trade Payment Channels in Aftermath of Sanctions


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 15, 2022

The BRICS trade and economic partnership group is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa {GO DEEP}.  The alliance was originated in part to explore alternatives to the dollar as a global trade currency.  They discussed several options in their prior meetings long before Russia took action into Ukraine.

With western sanctions against Russia now in place, there are increasing reports that China and India have developed alternatives.  This is one such example:

(Via LiveMint) – Russia, many of whose banks have been cut off from the Swift financial network, is exploring opening alternative payment channels with India, including linking Unified Payments Interface (UPI) with the Faster Payments System (FPS) of the Bank of Russia, to continue cross-border trade.

According to Dmitry A. Solodov, a spokesperson for the Russian embassy in New Delhi, his government has also asked Indian lenders to connect to the financial messaging system of the Bank of Russia to facilitate interbank transactions. In addition, the two sides are discussing accepting RuPay and MIR Cards within national payment infrastructures, Solodov said in an emailed statement.

“All these options are on the table and are being discussed by the two governments, the Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of Russia,” said a senior Indian government official, requesting anonymity. (read more)

Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.
Mar 16 2022

Producer Price Inflation Sets New Record at 10 Percent, No Relief in Sight


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 15, 2022 | Sundance

The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released February price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 10.0% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  This is the highest rate of inflation in the PPI ever recorded.

The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.4% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price.  Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery.  I modified Table-A to take out some of the noise.

The January, December and November data was also revised significantly upward, and a sketchy footnote is included in the data. “Some of the figures … in this release may differ from those previously reported because data for October 2021 through January 2022 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections.”   Remember that temporary drop in December, yeah, that’s wiped out now.

The reason the total demand inflation number is 0.8% is only because inflation in the service sector is lower than inflation in the goods sector.  Two reasons: (1) energy costs embed in goods first before services; and (2) when inflation on goods squeezes budgeted consumers, less services are demanded.

Unfortunately, there is nothing upstream in the supply chain and manufacturing pipeline to suggest that higher prices at the retail level are not coming.  The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising.  Factually, the recent massive increase in fuel and transportation cost is not included in this data.

You can see clearly in Table-B (again, cleaned up) the wave of inflation that took place in April through October 2021.  Inflation is backward looking, so when prices have already doubled in the previous year and the compounding price goes up another 35% this year, well essentially that’s another doubling when compared to 2020.   Put another way, raw materials (unprocessed intermediate goods) have tripled in price in the last two years.

In my estimation, the massive price increases the bureau quantified through January were the end of the first wave of massive inflation that CTH warned about last October.

“Do what you can do now to start preparing your weekly budget in ways you may not have thought about before.   Shop sales, use coupons, look for discounts and products that can be reformulated into multiple meals or multiple uses.   Shelf-stable food products that can be muti-purposed with proteins is a good start. Consider purchasing the raw materials for cleaning products and reformulate them yourself to avoid these massive increases in petroleum costs.” [October Warning]

The recent announcement of price increases we have discussed, from food producers specifically (Kraft-Heinz, Proctor and Gamble, etc.), in combination with massive fertilizer and farming costs for future yield, is the second wave that has yet to be fully quantified.  The second wave of retail inflation, only just beginning to arrive now in the February results, will extend throughout the spring.

Next month, March data reported in April, the second wave of inflation data should carry the first big jumps in gas and diesel prices.  For ordinary people, this next round of food inflation will be focused predominantly in the ‘Fresh Foods‘ categories.  Fresh produce, vegetables and fruits have short life cycles, and rapid increases in transportation costs hit that segment fast and hard.

On the positive side, our victory gardens are going up in value, very quickly.   A few backyard growing boxes can generate an easy $200 to $500/month in fresh produce as the price of ordinary row crops at the store starts to double and triple.  Mature citrus trees are worth their weight in gold right now.

FJB!

https://youtube.com/watch?v=sujYdw_tJUc%3Ffeature%3Doembed
Mar 15 2022

Did Manchin Just Save the Federal Reserve?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Mar 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Once again Joe Manchin has broken away from party lines to prevent the Democrats from destroying the global economy. Manchin announced that he would not support President Biden’s pick for Fed chair, Sarah Bloom Raskin, as her personal views on climate change could drastically alter Fed policy. “I have carefully reviewed Sarah Bloom Raskin’s qualifications and previous public statements. Her previous public statements have failed to satisfactorily address my concerns about the critical importance of financing an all-of-the-above energy policy to meet our nation’s critical energy needs,” Manchin stated. “I have come to the conclusion that I am unable to support her nomination to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board.”

A group of senators wrote an urgent letter to Joe Biden in February, citing “concern about Ms. Bloom Raskin’s potential abuse of power to inflict harm upon the traditional fuel industry.” The Federal Reserve is intended to operate as an independent body that is not swayed by politics. However, Raskin is an advocate for pushing forward the Build Back Better agenda by banning investments in fossil fuels. In May 2020, Raskin wrote an op-ed that stated the Federal Reserve should simply refrain from investing in energy. “The decision to bring oil and gas into the Fed’s investment portfolio not only misdirects limited recovery resources but also… undermines urgent efforts to counter surging carbon dioxide and methane emissions, which are bringing us closer to the catastrophe of an unlivably [sic] hot planet,” she stated. She reiterated her position countless times and has urged all financial regulators and auditors to “mitigate climate-related threats by stepping forward and incentivizing a rapid, orderly, and just transition away from high-emission assets.”

The letter penned by concerned senators claimed that Raskin is an “activist” who is unfit to be placed in a top leadership position at an allegedly non-partisan central bank. Interestingly, the letter was penned before the war in Ukraine that has only led to worsening energy prices. The Federal Reserve is the most important financial entity in the United States, and the United States is currently the leader of the global economy. Biden is showing the people once again that he does not care about them or the economy by appointing someone dangerously unqualified to support this New Green World Order. The Biden Administration is continuing to back Raskin and has said that any claims against her are simply baseless lies funded by the evil fossil fuel industry. The only way Raskin could be appointed now would be for one Republican to back her nomination, which seems quite unlikely.

Mar 14 2022

Trump Warned NATO of Europe’s Reliance on Russian Energy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Mar 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Everyone criticized Trump for condemning his NATO allies in 2018. At the time, only five nations were meeting their 2% GDP spending requirement on NATO defense, with the US paying around 5%. Trump suggested that everyone contribute 4% to build a stronger alliance. He never wanted to back away from NATO to support Putin, rather, he wanted to back away from NATO because he felt the US had been taken advantage of by its European allies.

Trump called Ukraine the wall between Russia and Europe and stated that America had become the “sucker country” by shelling out millions to Ukraine when they received far less in return. He warned Europe that their reliance on Russian imported energy would spell disaster and went as far as declaring that Germany was “totally controlled by Russia.” Instead of looking for energy alternatives, Germany went through with the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline and wasted billions as sanctions were implemented before the pipeline was fully functional.

Western world leaders failed us by using Russia as the easy solution for energy while simultaneously failing to have any diplomatic relationships with the country. The energy crisis was preventable.