The White House Changed the Definition of a Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jul 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Governments have a way with words. Namely, they can change the definition of a word at the stroke of a pen. The definition of “vaccine” changed under the CDC’s guidance from “a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease” to “a preparation that is used to stimulate the body’s immune response against diseases.” This permitted the COVID experimental injection to be called a “vaccine.”

According to some on the top US court, only a specialized biologist can define the term “woman.” “Mothers” has changed to “birthing people,” and words seem to have lost all meaning.

Now, the White House is changing its definition of “recession.” A recession was typically categorized as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, albeit not the best measure. Still, this was the tried and true formula for the government to determine the health of the overall economy. The White House now says that data from every facet of the US economy must be considered and foreshadows what to expect for Q2. The White House will not admit that the US is in a recession under Joe Biden. They will downplay the next GDP reading for Q2 and cite their newly formed definition for a “recession.”

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Ukrainian Blacklist of American Critics, Including Rand Paul, Glenn Greenwald, Tulsi Gabbard and Col Douglas McGregor


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance

The non-democratic, socialist and totalitarian Ukraine government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has created a blacklist of western voices that are considered “Russian propagandists” for their criticism of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. [Details Here]

The overwhelming commonality of the people on the list is their advocacy for citizens of nations who are providing support for Ukraine to have a democratic voice on the issue. The Zelenskyy government has stated it will not permit any criticism of their country and demands that all western nations continue to send billions of dollars to provide an appropriate lifestyle for all Ukrainian government officials.

Currently the burden of financing the continuation of the Ukraine government has fallen upon U.S. taxpayers who have provided approximately $60 billion so far for the pay and pension benefits of Ukraine officials and their families. President Zelenskyy says we have a moral obligation to continue this funding, and any voice who would question the process is now blacklisted within Ukraine and labeled a Russian propagandist.

Tucker Carlson discussed the issue with two of the people targeted by Zelenskyy, former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard and journalist Glenn Greenwald. WATCH:

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Senator Liawatha Rants Big Mad with Forked Tongue


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 25, 2022 | Sundance 

Senator Elizabeth “Fauxcahontus” Warren writes an op ed today [SEE HERE] that is fraught with a level of ideological pretending almost off the charts.

Essentially Liawatha is big mad because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is raising interest rates into a contracting economy.

The duplicitous senator accurately notes what the fed chairman is doing is only going to deepen the recession and hurt main street worse.

American workers are going to suffer, and the middle-class is going to bear the majority of the pain inflicted by the Biden administration policy.

All of that is true, but Fauxcahontus is not stupid.  Instead, she attempts to distance herself with forked tongue while knowing the monetary policy is specifically designed to support the energy policy she demands.

A recession lowers energy use, and as a result lowers energy costs. Pushing the U.S. economy deeper into a recession in order to support the Green New Deal “economic transition” is exactly the intent of the rate hikes.  Liawatha knows this but does not want to be stuck on the USS Biden when it sinks.

“Rising costs are an urgent problem, and interest rates play a key role in maintaining price stability. But urgency is no excuse for doubling down on a dangerous treatment. As with any illness, the right medicine starts with the right diagnosis. Unfortunately, the Fed has seized on aggressive rate hikes—a big dose of the only medicine at its disposal—even though they are largely ineffective against many of the underlying causes of this inflationary spike.” (read more)

Senator Elizabeth Warren is the worst kind of liar.  She is a liar that convinces her followers of her virtue through forked tongue.  Turn over the Senator Elizabeth Warren UniParty medallion and on the opposite side you will find the image of Senator Ted Cruz.

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The Professional Republican Club Blames Inflation and More Discerning MAGA Supporters for Failure to Support Selected Club Candidates


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 25, 2022 | Sundance 

The professionally republican party members, led by Ronna McDaniel Inc, are not happy with the grassroots MAGA voters who are not filling their party campaign coffers at the anticipated rate.

If the donors of the grassroot MAGA base continue to withhold financial contributions, mostly due to a lack of club alignment with the priorities of the voting base and the right wing of the DC UniParty refusing to act for our interests, the professional republican club business may suffer.  The tenured board members of the club are not happy. Not happy at all.  [Washington Examiner Article]

Keep in mind, the only two times in the modern Republican club era when grassroots funds exceeded the corporate Wall Street donor class, was in 2010 with the rise of the Tea Party and then again in 2016 with MAGA and Donald Trump.

Small dollar donations (under $250) within the GOPe club were never a part of the established republican club priority, until they saw what can happen when the grassroots mobilize.  It was the scale of donations from the Tea Party base (monster vote) and MAGA base (monster vote) that stunned former RNC Chairman Reince Priebus in 2016. Mr. Priebus temporarily convinced the GOPe Club owners (board members) to tamp down their open hostility and verbal disparagement against the base.

The professionally republican club members, including Ronna McDaniel Inc, despise the vulgarian deplorables with a condescending intensity that drips from their pursed lips as they sip white wine spritzers from their crystal goblets at cocktail parties. It’s a similar dynamic of hatred on the DNC club side of politics toward the Bernie Sanders vulgarians; although Obama Inc (Plouffe, Axelrod, et al) taught the Pelosi crew to hide it better.

WASHINGTON DC – […] “We do these massive 3,000-person surveys to our donor file,” Moffatt explained. “The verbatim [responses have been:] It’s gas or this donation; it’s vacation with our children or this donation.” Republican insiders interviewed for this story were more guarded when discussing the Trump factor in the second-quarter fundraising downturn experienced by so many GOP candidates and groups, fearing reprisals by the former president. Granted anonymity, they unloaded.

Republicans are critical of Trump’s fundraising tactics and the money he has taken off the table for Republican candidates and groups to raise and spend. Save America, Trump’s PAC, issues dozens of email appeals daily and raked in $103.7 million this cycle. If the former president were sharing the wealth, perhaps Republicans would be less resentful. But Trump appears to be hoarding cash, $103.1 million through June 30, for a 2024 presidential bid. (read more)

Even CNN Panel Cannot Support the Biden Administration Redefining Terms Because their Economic Policy Sucks


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 25, 2022 | Sundance

No credit to the CNN team for calling out the obvious; I mean, this is the same panel who redefined “insurrection” to fit their needs; however, the Biden administration’s efforts to redefine economics are so pathetic even the narrative engineers at CNN cannot support them.  WATCH:

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Biden Puts His Economic Credibility On The Line Ahead of Thursday BEA Report, I Do Not Think We Will See a Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 25, 2022 | Sundance

The White House is expending a tremendous amount of communication effort over the past 48 hours trying to convince the American public that the economy is good, and we are not in a recession.

Yesterday it was Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Today National Economic Council Chairman Brian Deese, White House Economist Jared Bernstein and even Joe Biden himself, all declaring that despite the economic contraction you may feel, see and even quantify, we are not in a recession.  WATCH:

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The action of the recession deniers reminds me of the famous Ralph Waldo Emmerson quote:

The louder he spoke of his honor, the faster we counted our spoons.”

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The Recession Deniers

Germany to Bail Out Uniper


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Germany and Finnish parent company Fortum signed a $15.24 billion deal to save energy company Uniper. In return, Germany will take a 30% stake in the company. Uniper reported only receiving a fraction on contracted gas from Russia’s Gazprom since mid-June, and it seems shipments may continue to slow or cease entirely. Uniper has been purchasing gas elsewhere at a premium, dampening their profits.

“We are living through an unprecedented energy crisis that requires robust measures. After intensive but constructive negotiations, we found a solution that in an acceptable way met the interest of all parties involved,” said Fortum’s President and CEO Markus Rauramo.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz said saving Uniper is of “paramount importance” for the German economy. Sholz said the “government plans to introduce mechanism to pass through 90% of replacement costs for missing Russian gas to consumers as of October 1.” The costs will be passed on to the consumers, of course.

Save the Planet – No more Showers!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Jul 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While you are eating your bugs for breakfast, lunch, and dinner with hot sauce from the black market, stop showing they waste water and take electricity/gas to heat the water. Only wash four places with a hand-towel using cold water only!

Donald Trump and Elon Musk Have Something in Common


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 24, 2022 | Sundance 

Donald Trump and Elon Musk have something in common….

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.”

~Machiavelli

For Elon Musk it is the organization of Twitter with 7,500 employees dedicated to ensuring he would never succeed in his takeover effort.  From the board of directors to the data engineers who build the controlling algorithms, to the third-party service providers who manage the data demand, there are likely only a handful of people within the entire corporation who would welcome the type of change Elon Musk represents.

As a result of the scale of opposition, any organizational takeover would ultimately deliver a company filled with sleeper cells and activist agents who consider it their personal and ideological mission to destroy the social media platform rather than accept change.  The purchase effort was doomed from the outset, considering Musk represented something akin to Rand Paul being nominated to lead the World Bank or Federal Reserve.  Some stuff just isn’t possible.

We The People attempted the Musk route when we sent President Donald Trump into Washington DC.  However, instead of one institution with 7,500 people, it was dozens of institutions housing hundreds of thousands of entrenched ideologues.  Most MAGA voters did not realize it at the time because grade school civics was never updated with our post-9/11 political outcome.

Imagine what the 7,500 Twitter folks would do as employees within an institution they abhorred overnight.  What scale of effort would be exhausted to kill baby Elon Hitler for the greater social good?  You don’t have to go too far in your imagination, because that’s exactly how Washington DC reacted to Trump’s arrival.

From day one to day one-thousand-four-hundred-sixty-one, no opposition was too much opposition by anyone, in every institution and every branch – including both wings of the UniParty congress, upper and lower chambers.

The threat that Trump represented needed to be managed, attacked and ultimately removed.  There were/are trillions at stake, and keep in mind, DC is the epicenter of the global financial universe.  As a result, the financial foot-soldiers of almost every western nation were aligned to assist the DC system in removing the threat.

Sometimes I laugh at the hindsight of people who say Donald Trump had terrible judgement in his appointments.  I snicker because these are the same people who said General James “Mad Dog” Mattis was the greatest military leader since George Washington.  How did that role as defense secretary work out?

No wait, Trump could have done a better job against the 147,000 people in the United States Dept of State, extending like metastatic cancer around the globe from their primary origination point in foggy bottom DC.

Oh, I’m sure the Ron DeSantis advocates have a plan for that, just as assuredly as they can jump to the typeset to instruct Musk how to modify the personnel outlooks of the social media network.  Something that involves the multi-billion global media corporations folding up shop to shift their ideological compass headings, right?

Maybe free cookies will help the kids who work 3 hours a week, smile as they adjust to a 40-hour expectation.

I’m told that Donald Trump also planned badly to take over the 90,000 employees and $8.7 billion payroll at the U.S. Dept of Justice.  Trump should have listened to the advice of the esteemed and well-regarded senior Senator from deep red Alabama, Mr. Jeff Sessions, who was also praised effusively by the same conservative crowd who praised the Mad Dog.  If only Trump had installed a great stalwart for conservative principles like Sessions.  Alas, we lost the opp… wait, huh, no.. wait,.. I mean, what?

Former UN official Ric Grenell was awesome as the “acting” Director of National Intelligence.  If only President Trump had nominated Grenell from the outset, instead of that insufferable DC insider from the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Dan Coats, things would have been so much better.

With an ODNI confirmation from the same senate intelligence group that was trying to block Trump from ever reaching Washington DC, things would have been awesome.  Hey, why is that “Acting” word always in front of Grenell anyway?  Oh, wait, the “Republican” committee members wouldn’t what?

Alas, if Trump had only done a better job of hiring the 2,400 people who work for the White House, he would have avoided all of those horrible stealth terror cells who were in place to facilitate his removal.  Surely it wouldn’t have taken him that long to go through the candidate pool and interview everyone willing to live within a 100-mile radius of the epicenter of morality and truthfulness known as Washington DC.

And boy did President Trump ever screw up with his 400+ staff National Security Council, who report to the National Security Advisor and come from every executive agency, including intelligence, to deliver wholesome and practical advice to the oval office holder they hated.

I’m sure Musk has a better plan to manage the Silicon Valley coders who design the algorithms at the Twitter.  I mean, Musk and Ron DeSantis being all smarter than Trump would have a plan for stuff, right?

Speaking of “intelligence”, what was candidate Donald Trump thinking when he selected former Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his vice-presidential running mate?  I mean everyone in the republican sphere of conservative politics hated Mike Pence in 2015 and 2016, knowing his conservative bona fides were a mask just waiting to drop and create havoc for the America-First agenda.   I mean it’s not like everyone didn’t know Mr. Pence surrounded himself with liars, fabricators and political club staff who hated the Tea Party base.   We all knew that in 2015 and 2016, right?

If only Donald Trump had hired the right kind of people within his administration, then the multinational global corporate media would not have needed to treat him like he was the walking personification of the antichrist.  A few people here, and a few different people there, and everything would have gone swimmingly.

Many people know -to a demonstrable certainty- that Ron DeSantis has, right now, a list of about 200,000 people ready to move themselves directly into Washington DC and finally change the system for the better.  I am certain this list exists because all the right crowd in conservative media tell me they are sure of it.

These betters are the people who would know such things because they knew Senator Ted Cruz was the reformist lightbringer in 2015.   The word is that DeSantis uniquely carries the power to replace every corrupt republican member of the House and Senate simply by raising his chin a certain way when the sunlight glistens upon him.

It was the Fourth Quarter of 2019…..

….despite two years of doomsayer predictions from Wall Street’s professional punditry, saying Trump tariffs on China would create massive inflation…. It wasn’t happening!

Overall year-over-year inflation was hovering around 1.7 percent [Table-A BLS]; that was our inflation rate.  The rate in late 2019 was firmed up with less month-over-month fluctuation, and the rate remained consistent.   [See Below]

A couple of important points.  First, unleashing the energy sector to drive down overall costs to consumers and industry outputs was a key part of President Trump’s America-First MAGAnomic initiative.  Lower energy prices help the worker economy, middle class and average American more than any other sector.

Which brings us to the second important point.  Notice how food price had very low year-over-year inflation, 0.5 percent.  That is a combination of two key issues: low energy costs, and the fracturing of Big Ag hold on the farm production and the export dynamic:

(BLS) […] The index for food at home declined for the third month in a row, falling 0.2 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.7 percent in August as the index for eggs fell 2.6 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables, which rose in July, fell 0.5 percent in August; the index for fresh fruits declined 1.4 percent, but the index for fresh vegetables rose 0.4 percent. The index for cereals and bakery products fell 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.3 percent in July. (link)

For the previous twenty years food prices had been increasingly controlled by Big Ag, and not by normal supply and demand.   The commodity market became a ‘controlled market’. U.S. food outputs (farm production) was controlled and exported to keep the U.S. consumer paying optimal prices.

President Trump’s trade reset was disrupting this process.  As farm products were less exported the cost of the food in our supermarket became reconnected to a ‘more normal’ supply and demand cycle.  Food prices dropped and our pantry costs were lowered.

The Commerce Dept. then announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August 2019, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlighted retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results came on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, 2019, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

Despite the efforts to remove and impeach President Trump, it did not look like middle-class America was overly concerned about the noise coming from the pundits.   Likely that’s because blue-collar wages were higher, Main Street inflation was lower, and overall consumer confidence was strong.  Yes, MAGAnomics was working.

Additionally, remember all those MSM hours and newspaper column inches where the professional financial pundits were claiming Trump’s tariffs were going to cause massive increases in prices of consumer goods?

Well, exactly the opposite happened [BLS report] Import prices were continuing to drop:

[Table 1 – BLS report link]

This was a really interesting dynamic that no-one in the professional punditry would dare explain.

Donald Trump’s tariffs were targeted to specific sectors of imported products.  [Steel, Aluminum, and a host of smaller sectors etc.]  However, when the EU and China respond by devaluing their currency, that approach hit all products imported, not just the tariff goods.

Because the EU and China were driving up the value of the dollar, everything we were importing became cheaper.   Not just imports from Europe and China, but actually imports from everywhere.   All imports were entering the U.S. at substantially lower prices.

This meant when we imported products, we were also importing deflation.

This price result is exactly the opposite of what the economic experts and Wall Street pundits predicted back in 2017 and 2018 when they were pushing the rapid price increase narrative.

Because all the export dependent economies were reacting with such urgency to retain their access to the U.S. market, aggregate import prices were actually lower than they were when the Trump tariffs began:

[…]  Prices for imports from China edged down 0.1 percent in August following decreases of 0.2 percent in both July and June. Import prices from China have not advanced on a monthly basis since ticking up 0.1 percent in May 2018. The price index for imports from China fell 1.6 percent for the year ended in August.

[…]  Import prices from the European Union fell 0.2 percent in August and 0.3 percent over the past 12 months.

[Page #4 – BLS Report, pdf] – BLS press release

…There is only one Great MAGA King.

Sunday Talks, Treasury Secretary Yellen Declares Lower Economic Activity and Higher Energy Prices are Good During Our Transition to Windmills


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 24, 2022 | Sundance

Until people understand what is happening, we cannot correct things or even respond to them accurately.  Many people don’t want to accept what is happening.  Even more still believe in the Schoolhouse Rock civics they were taught in grade school and cannot accept how these ideologues operate.  As long as denial remains a survival mechanism, correction is difficult.

All of the people on the monetary policy side of the economic equation are working earnestly to manage the global economy into a decline thereby slowing the need for energy production. The bankers are supporting the Build Back Better policy makers by putting the western economies into an intended contraction.  Slowing the western economies helps to lower energy use and moderate/offset the extreme increases in cost (coal, oil, gas, electricity, fuel etc) the policies are creating.

Lower economic activity means less income, job security and wealth for the working class. Simultaneously, increased energy costs mean more expenses for the same workers who are losing income and wealth.  This is the ‘managing’ part of their collectively “managed transition.”  They are monitoring and managing the pitchforks.

In this Meet the Press segment with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, you will note she says “lower economic activity during this transition” is good.  She also happily says businesses are taking “appropriate” action to lower their activity, because that is exactly what the central planners want.  They want businesses to do less, create less, sell less, even employ less, because ultimately, they want businesses to help advance the cause of climate change by consuming less energy resources.  WATCH:

The central bankers are trying to support western government policy.  Unfortunately, the government policy they are under obligation to support is the fundamental energy shift, or what the World Economic Forum (Davos Group) has called the “Build Back Better” climate change agenda.

Monetary policy can only impact one side of the inflation challenge, the demand side.

The western bankers (EU central bank, U.S. federal reserve bank, and various banking groups) are raising interest rates in order to “tame inflation” by “taming demand.”  However, as you know the global economic demand has been declining for several quarters.  Raising interest rates into an already contracting economy only does one thing, it speeds up the rate of economic contraction.

Economic contraction is the lowering of economic activity.  Raise interest rates -in a general sense- and businesses invest less, borrowers borrow less, consumers purchase less, employers expand less, and the economy overall slows down. When the economy turns negative, meaning less products and services are produced, we enter a recession. Some businesses and employers do not survive a recession and subsequently unemployment rises.

During recessionary periods people buy less stuff, people have less income stability, and economic activity drops.  When the banks raise interest rates into an economy that is already stalled or contracting, unemployment and general pain on Main Street increases.  Workers are laid-off, incomes shrink, consumer spending drops and that leads to less employment.  Recessions are bad for middle-class and working-class people.

However, that said, there is one benefit from a recession…. Energy use drops.

People travel less; businesses operate shorter work schedules; manufacturing stops; overall fewer goods are produced because less consumer spending is taking place.  From the perspective of the groups who want to see overall energy consumption drop, a recession is a good thing.

A recession also brings along a natural drop in energy prices as less overall energy is used inside an economy that is slowing, stalled or contracting.

Oil prices drop as less oil is needed for the manufacturing of goods.  Energy use in transportation also drops and generally gasoline prices drop because less transportation fuel is needed, because fewer goods are being transported.  When the economy goes into a recession, energy use and prices always drop.

Put these factors together and you start to see how the transition to a new western energy policy, the Build Back Better agenda, benefits from a recession.

This is the essential understanding needed to reconcile why central banks would intentionally create an economic contraction.  The bankers are supporting the governmental objective of transitioning the western economy into a new energy system away from oil, coal and natural gas.  The banks are supporting the policy makers.

The central banks cannot openly admit what they are doing to support the politicians and policy makers.  In this weird new era, the banks are being instructed to support the policy makers without actually admitting they have changed their monetary mission.  The central bankers will continue to say their job is to manage and/or balance employment and inflation.  However, what they will not admit is their unspoken agenda to support the political decisions.

Instead, almost all the central banks are saying their interest rate hikes are intended to cool inflation by lowering demand.  However, it is not demand that is driving inflation; it is the policy making behind the energy transition that is driving higher costs on everything.

The supply-side of the inflation dynamic is being overwhelmed by massive increases in energy costs which are the results of intentional western policy.  Extreme increases in consumer prices are the outcome of these energy price increases.  The overwhelming majority of consumer price inflation is being caused by energy policy, not demand.

The various central banks and monetary policymakers know this.  In fact, they are lying about their motives.  They have to lie, because if they were to tell the truth there would be an uprising, and the sucess of the energy agenda would be put at risk.

In order to support the energy objectives of the various governments’, the central banks are trying -and succeeding- to lower economic activity.

Less economic activity means lower energy needs.  This is what they call “managing the transition” to the new economy based on “sustainable energy.”

The banks and policy makers are ultimately managing the economic decline in order to Build Back Better in the future.  This is why the originating charter of the central banks is being ignored, and the banks are raising interest rates into an already contracting economy.

None of this is being done accidentally.  All of this is being done with forethought and implicit intention.

Unfortunately, for the average person this means the banks and policy makers have entered a phase where it is in their interests to shrink the global economy.  They are trying to control the collapse of the various economies by working together.  This means less jobs, less work, a lower standard of living, and a period of extreme financial pressure for the average person.

Eventually, we will reach a point where the government(s) will need to step in and fill the gap from the declined economic activity.  Bailouts and subsidies will be needed as they were in the COVID lockdown test run.  Unemployed workers and the people being impacted by a prolonged economic recession will need subsidies in order to survive.

The government policy makers are planning to do just that, spend more.  They practiced during the COVID economic lockdowns, now they will execute a similar policy path as they manage the energy transition.

We have only just entered the beginning phase of this Build Back Better agenda.  No one, including the banks and policy makers, have any idea how long this is going to take. We could be in this period of severe economic contraction for several years, perhaps decades, until their grand design of a new energy future is complete.  This has been the discussion at the World Economic Forum (WEF), as the instructions were passed out.

The entire time the western government architects are doing this, they must keep the demand for traditional energy products like coal, oil and gas at the lowest demand possible.  That is why the central banks and politicians must keep economic activity at the lowest -yet survivable- rate possible.

Prepare your informed long-term affairs accordingly.