Category WW III

Mar 15 2022

Elizabeth Warren Promised High Gas Prices, Joe Biden Delivered Them


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 14, 2022 | Sundance

In September of 2019, Elizabeth Warren promised to do something on her first day in office that would rebuild the Russian economy, grow China’s influence and support the Maduro regime in Venezuela.  We immediately wrote about it HERE.

SEPT 7, 2019 – Democrat presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren has made a campaign promise that was quite remarkable:

What Senator Elizabeth Warren promised in that tweet is EXACTLY what Joe Biden did on his first day in office.   Now, before going further, let me explain something about that relationship that will likely make a lot more sense.

You might remember when all the democrat candidates in the 2020 primary were told to drop out right before Super Tuesday, as part of the organized effort to stop Bernie Sanders from becoming the nominee.  The lone holdout was Senator Elizabeth Warren.  She was polling essentially even with Joe Biden while Bernie was leading.

It was very well documented at the time that Senator Warren was negotiating terms with the Biden team for her compliance and support.  Eventually, as the controlled party momentum grew, Warren agreed to drop out of the race, and she endorsed Joe Biden.  The terms of that agreement were never made public, but when we look at the priority of Warren (tweet), and compare it to the literal duplication of that pledge that was carried out by Joe Biden, well, the coincidence doesn’t look coincidental.   I digress…

Back to the original statement by Warren.  At the time she made this statement in 2019, we outlined a very specific series of consequences that would happen if she really did target fossil fuel on day one.  Now that Joe Biden has carried out exactly what Warren outlined, let’s go back to that 2019 outline of consequences and compare it to where we are today.

SEPTEMBER 2019 – The consequences of such policy are not esoteric; they are very real and very serious.  Who would immediately benefit from Warren’s policy: Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela. Who would suffer – Americans.  Here’s how…

Within the first 24 hours of Elizabeth Warren’s presidency she is promising to dramatically raise the price of Oil and Natural Gas.  This will:

  • Immediately hand Vladimir Putin hundreds of billions worth of enhanced Russian energy exports.  A windfall of economic growth that will mean Russian policy expansion globally.
  • Support the regime of Venezuelan dictator Maduro who relies on oil production and pricing to keep his socialist government in place.
  • Expand the influence of China; and increase the value of Beijing’s investments in Russian energy and 49% state in PDVSA (Venezuela).
  • Immediately help the Iranian economy; enhance the stranglehold of power by the Mullah’s over the Iranian people; help fund terrorist actions globally, and specifically create terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya and Israel.
  • Return U.S. policy and strategy back to a position of dependence on OPEC nations; so we can expect more U.S. military involvement in the middle-east (as above).
  • Destroy growth in American wages , and set up energy policy that will drive further industrial manufacturing out of the U.S. and into Mexico and Asia.
  • Simultaneously drive up the price of electricity in the U.S, further exacerbating the financial costs and losses to the U.S. middle class.
  • Raise gas prices back to Obama-era rates $5/gal.
  • In turn this will drive up the cost of transported products, and U.S. food prices will jump approximately 20% as massive inflation hits highly-consumable categories first.
  • The collective impact of the four domestic points above will drive down the ability of consumers to spend on other goods.  The U.S. economy is two-thirds dependent on consumer spending…. The collective impact means economic contraction.

Candidate Elizabeth Warren is promising to deliver these results in the first 24 hours of her administration if she was to win the presidency.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has never worked in the private sector, nor has she created anything that is materially not connected to government expansion.  She is proposing policy without any comprehension of downstream impact on a domestic, international, geopolitical or national security basis.  Senator Warren promises these impacts in her first 24 hours in office.

{BREAK}

Everything written above was written in 2019 and predicted to happen if the President were to: “sign an executive order that puts a total moratorium on all new fossil fuel leases for drilling offshore and on public lands. And ban fracking—everywhere.”

On his first day in office, Joe Biden did exactly that.

FORBES – “Through an executive action, Biden revoked permits for the Keystone XL Pipeline and put a temporary moratorium on oil and gas leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, moves hailed by environmental and indigenous activists.” (link)

MONEY MARKETS – “President Biden signed an executive order pausing new federal oil fracking leases. (link)

CNBC – “Biden’s orders direct the secretary of the Interior Department to halt new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters, and begin a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development.” (link)

Now, think about where we are right now with gasoline prices and food store prices and inflation.  Scroll back up and look at what was predicted to happen in 2019 if those energy policies and executive orders were carried out.

Don’t tell me no one could see this coming.  Everything from the strength of the Russian position, providing them the economic leverage to enter Ukraine, to the current gas prices and food inflation is a natural outcome of those specific policies.

Last point – While I have no inside knowledge to make the case definitive, it certainly does look to me like the terms of Warren’s exit and endorsement were delivered by Joe Biden on his first day in office.  Now we are feeling the consequences.

Mar 15 2022

Whoops, Narrative Shifting – Ex British Special Forces Reported Among Victims of Russia Strike Against Military Training Facility in Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 14, 2022 | Sundance 

As with all things Ukraine, when the initial reports of the Russian cruise missile attack against the military training facility located near the border with Poland, we said to be cautious about western reporting of no NATO military personnel present, killed or injured.

The reason is for the warning was simple – if NATO is providing weapons and training, they’ve got to be doing the distribution and training somewhere in Ukraine near the NATO border.  Conduct war operations in a war zone, and you run the risk of war outcomes.

Now the Daily Mail is beginning to report on ‘missing, feared dead’ former British special forces operators likely killed in the blast.  As the story evolves, how long will it be before U.S. headlines carry similar missing U.S. “contractor” stories?

Most of the U.S. and NATO warfighting is carried out by independent contractors or mercenary groups now.  Ukraine is the perfect battlespace for that unofficial type of war fighter engagement.

(Daily Mail) – Three British former special forces soldiers are feared to have been killed in a Russian airstrike near the Polish border. More than 30 Russian cruise missiles targeted the Yavoriv base yesterday, killing as many as 180 people.

Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for Russia’s ministry of defence, said the base was struck by ‘long-range, high-precision’ weapons because it was hosting ‘foreign mercenaries and a large shipment of foreign weapons’.

He added: ‘The destruction of foreign mercenaries who arrived on the territory of Ukraine will continue.’

Konashenkov said up to 180 people had been killed in the strike, though Ukraine initially said 35 people died and another 134 were wounded.

But a source told The Mirror today: ‘There were many more killed within the site than has been claimed and bodies are still being found.

[…] ‘This is extremely sensitive as there are believed to be no serving British military personnel inside Ukraine as politically that would be extremely controversial.’ 

[…] A Ukrainian officer said there were around 1,000 foreigners at the camp – officially known as the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security – at the time. (read more)

“1,000 foreigners” at the military camp, and we are supposed to believe none of them were American?

There’s a big motive to keep any American or British death quiet, because it would undermine the official narrative being broadcast by western media.  All of these mercenary soldiers know they are operating in an unofficial capacity in order to provide western government with plausible deniability.  That is the risk that “contracted” war fighters assume when they take the very generous money offered.  It’s a mess.

Keep watching.

Mar 15 2022

Congress To Hold Private Meeting With Zelenskyy To Celebrate the Allocation of Taxes While U.S. Citizens Are Kept Out Using Fences and Barbed Wire


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 14, 2022 | Sundance

Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have announced a private congressional teleconference between the exclusive confab of DC elites and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that will take place on Wednesday.   Congress has allocated $13.6 billion in “Ukraine-related” aid, with “10% for the big guy.”

The subject matter of the virtual meeting will likely surround the allocation of taxpayer indulgency fees to support Ukraine and the Non-Governmental Organizations run by the families of DC conference participants.  The meeting provides Zelenskyy the first opportunity to thank congress for deposits into his offshore holdings and celebrate his magnanimous money laundering operation.

Meanwhile, taxpayers who fund the congressional spending will be kept away from the private meeting by armed guards, fences and barbed wire constructed around the House of Representatives.  There is apparently and ongoing concern that the people who fund government might actually get too close to the government they are required to fund.

Yes, this is the ongoing state of our union, and our voices are irrelevant to their conduct.

WASHINGTON DC – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak virtually to members of Congress on Wednesday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced in a joint letter.

“As war rages on in Ukraine, it is with great respect and admiration for the Ukrainian people that we invite all Members of the House and Senate to attend a Virtual Address to the United States Congress delivered by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine on Wednesday, March 16th at 9:00 a.m.,” they wrote.

“The Congress remains unwavering in our commitment to supporting Ukraine as they face Putin’s cruel and diabolical aggression, and to passing legislation to cripple and isolate the Russian economy as well as deliver humanitarian, security and economic assistance to Ukraine. We look forward to the privilege of welcoming President Zelenskyy’s address to the House and Senate and to convey our support to the people of Ukraine as they bravely defend democracy,” Pelosi and Schumer wrote in the letter.

The speech is only open to members of Congress. To attend, lawmakers who aren’t fully vaccinated will need to wear a mask. (read more)

Mar 15 2022

Steve Harrigan Returns From Ukraine With a Somber Message About the Situation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 14, 2022 | Sundance 

Fox News correspondent Steve Harrigan returns from Ukraine with a somber message about the situation and likely future.   Harrigan notes that Russian victory in Ukraine is a foregone conclusion – Ukraine will be flattened if needed. However, that outcome comes at a serious cost.

The war inside Ukraine will wage on for years as an insurgency against Vladimir Putin.  The western alliance will spend trillions if needed.  NATO will kill as many Ukrainians and mercenary units as needed in order to battle Vladimir Putin in a proxy war.   The industrial war machine will gleefully churn out the material needed for the DC based political war machine to purchase.   First, WATCH:

Harrigan is correct, however, he missed the biggest tell-tale sign of all.  Where are the peacekeepers?  Where are the diplomatic voices, the ranks of the prudent and pragmatic political voices who focus on stopping the death?  Where are those voices?  Where is the faith-based voice asking for leaders to stop, breathe, meet and seek a solution without further war?

Those voices are silent because the western motive is to create a long-term insurgent war in Ukraine.  The geopolitical system views this as an existential battle against Russia.  Both sides in this conflict view this as a zero-sum contest.  The NATO alliance doesn’t view Volodymyr as a hero, he’s a tool.

If Zelenskyy were to walk toward a negotiated ceasefire, the bullet that kills him would come from the rear.  That’s how corrupt this conflict is.

ANNAPOLIS, MD – November 17:
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan holds a press conference to address COVID-19 concerns in Annapolis, MD on November 17.
(Photo by Bill O’Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Mar 14 2022

Oliver Stone – Ukraine On Fire


This is a must watch it you really want to know what is going on in the Ukraine

Mar 14 2022

Gen. Keane: Biden Admin. Is Paralyzed By the Fear of Escalation


Posted originally on Rumble by Sean Hannity  Published March 14, 2022

Mar 14 2022

Trump Warned NATO of Europe’s Reliance on Russian Energy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Mar 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Everyone criticized Trump for condemning his NATO allies in 2018. At the time, only five nations were meeting their 2% GDP spending requirement on NATO defense, with the US paying around 5%. Trump suggested that everyone contribute 4% to build a stronger alliance. He never wanted to back away from NATO to support Putin, rather, he wanted to back away from NATO because he felt the US had been taken advantage of by its European allies.

Trump called Ukraine the wall between Russia and Europe and stated that America had become the “sucker country” by shelling out millions to Ukraine when they received far less in return. He warned Europe that their reliance on Russian imported energy would spell disaster and went as far as declaring that Germany was “totally controlled by Russia.” Instead of looking for energy alternatives, Germany went through with the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline and wasted billions as sanctions were implemented before the pipeline was fully functional.

Western world leaders failed us by using Russia as the easy solution for energy while simultaneously failing to have any diplomatic relationships with the country. The energy crisis was preventable.

Mar 14 2022

Distrust is the Default


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Public confidence has plummeted. People across the world have lost faith in their governments, economy, and overall futures. The 2022 Edelman Trust Barometer surveyed 36,000 respondents from 28 countries in November 2021. Similar sentiments are being felt across the world as inflation, civil unrest, and war continues to wreak havoc on our lives with no signs of slowing.

Nearly half of all respondents stated that they viewed the government (48%) and media (46%) as divisive forces in society. “We find a world ensnared in a vicious cycle of distrust, fueled by a growing lack of faith in media and government. Through disinformation and division, these two institutions are feeding the cycle and exploiting it for commercial and political gain,” the poll found. The propaganda propelled by the media is so blatant that it cannot be ignored by anyone regardless of their political standing. Honest journalists are jailed while the others promote an agenda. The media quickly adverted our attention to the war in Ukraine and rapidly downplayed their coverage on COVID. Fauci’s face was an unavoidable daily presence in the press for years until the war began. Where is he now? The same thing happened when the Black Lives Matter riots dominated the news until Joe Biden was elected president as their mission was accomplished. The governments are responsible for changing the narrative provided to the public by the media who have become misinformation peddlers.

However, people are now looking at the private sector to solve societal problems. The private sector is not capable or responsible for doing the government’s job, but people worldwide would prefer it if it were. “We see an even greater expectation of business to lead as trust in government continues to spiral,” the survey noted. Around 49% of respondents want businesses to fix economic inequality, while 46% believe they are responsible for reskilling the workforce. A surprising 52% of respondents believe the private sector is responsible for cyclical climate change.

Conclusion: “Failure of leadership makes distrust the default.” Our model indicates that people will continue to seek refuge from the private sector, with the intensity increasing to a level not seen in our lifetimes.

Mar 14 2022

Sunday Talks, John Kirby Questioned About U.S. Military Presence at Lviv Military Center Bombed Earlier in Day


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 13, 2022

Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby stated in this interview that “no U.S. service members were killed in the attack” that took place near the Ukraine-Poland border in the town of Lviv.   However, it is important to qualify that government “contractors” are often used in these Military training centers.

The military compound in Lviv, which is only 15 miles from the border with Poland, was being used as a military “training facility” for Ukrainian forces.  Knowing the U.S. and NATO were funneling weapons into Ukraine through this specific region, it stands to reason this “training facility” was targeted by Russia specifically because it was a weapons cache for arms flowing into Ukraine.

John Kirby appeared on ABC shortly after the compound targeting was public. WATCH:

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(WaPo) […] On Sunday, Russia’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement that was at odds with the Ukrainian account and threatened more such attacks. “At these facilities, the Kyiv regime deployed a training center for foreign mercenaries before being sent to the areas of hostilities against Russian military personnel, as well as a storage base for weapons and equipment coming from foreign countries,” the statement said. (link)

The [Lviv] facility is indeed the “main training center where U.S. and Canadian troops have been working with our Ukrainian partners for the last 6-7 years,” retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who served as commander of U.S. Army Europe during the Obama and Trump administrations, said via text.

Mar 14 2022

Sunday Talks, El Erian Predicts, Accurately, Inflation To Climb Beyond Ten Percent This Year


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 13, 2022

Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic adviser for Allianz, got the inflation problem correct; states a forecast in line with CTH Main Street review, but then falls short on his political outlook for the solution.

Within the interview, El-Erian predicts inflation at the current CPI measure will increase from current 7.9% to over 10% this year.  That aspect is in alignment with CTH review at ground level.

Current real inflation is more than 15% across the board, if you use the CPI methodology we were using in the 70’s and 80’s.  Both the scale and the speed of the current price increases are historic.  That is why you are seeing prices on retail items jumping so high, so fast.  The price increases on highly consumable goods are in the 15 to 20% range.  WATCH:

An increase to over 10%, using current CPI measures, equals an increase of 25 to 30% in actual price (using historic measures).  Keep in mind, we have already passed through a wave of backward-looking inflation in the 25 to 30% range.  El-Erian is predicting a duplication of that scale into the remainder of 2022, I agree.  The 2020 $3 item became the 2021 $4 item, which will now become the 2022 $5.50 item.  That is our reality. It will not get better.

Where we differ from El-Erian is on the wage side and the political analysis.  Any political intervention to create govt subsidy with the goal to generate a higher workforce will backfire – bigly.  Recent historic employment statistics have not yet reflected the demand side decline in goods.  The employment data is skewed and useless because of the COVID mitigation impact on jobs.

The employment picture is only just now starting to reflect the demand side drop.  Wages will not grow and will not provide fuel for inflation.  The currently hidden workforce reductions are generating downward pressure on wages naturally.  Adding subsidies (childcare etc), to generate a higher workforce into an environment with declining available jobs, will backfire.

Sector specific unions negotiating for higher wage contracts will find themselves trying to get wage increases while the top line of the organization is dropping due to lack of demand.   Unfortunately, the AFSCME is generally immune to this problem – government spending can always expand.

This is where El-Erian’s connection to Wall Street is his blind spot.  If what he suggests were carried out, govt will print money to cover even more deficit spending (the BBB agenda). That increased money supply will create even more inflation at the same time real life wage pressures are going down because the economy is contracting, and workers are getting laid-off.

The economy, quantified by the goods/services generated (minus imports), has been contracting since mid 2021.  The govt COVID subsidies created artificial and unnatural demand for goods.  If you take the massive COVID expenditures ($5+ trillion) out of the 2021 economy, the result is a recession that began mid 2021.

That bloated chicken, which carried the inflation created by the printing, is coming home to roost.  There ain’t no way in hell to avoid it.  The recession exists, regardless of our desire to ignore it or fill the hole with more QE printing.

The inflation problem is now magnified by the need for the Fed to raise interest rates and stop purchasing our own debt.  Raising interest rates will lower investment and naturally create fewer jobs.  The economy will contract further and faster.  El-Erian accurately notes there is no positive way out of this scenario, there are bad options and worse options.  The difference between them is how slow or fast we want to take off the bandaid.

$3 – $4 bread in 2020, became $4 – $5 bread in 2021, which will become $5.50 – $6.50 bread mid-summer 2022.  Other food store averages will follow a similar rate of price increase.  The processed food inflation is settling down, however, fresh foods inflation will now take over and has only just begun.  Fresh fruits and vegetables will increase in price at roughly twice the rate of processed goods.

Chemical product price increases should level off mid-summer; however, with unleaded gasoline still on target for $7/gal [diesel $8/$9 (range)] the packaging, transportation and distribution costs will continue putting upward pressure on finished good prices.

All of these things were going to happen this year, regardless of Russia and Ukraine.  The European conflict is now just a convenient excuse to avoid blame for outcomes of the underlying policies.

This economic reality is not exclusively a U.S. issue; however, the scale of the economic problem is exclusively a U.S. issue.  The globe may drop into a recession, but our hole will be far worse.