Posted originally on Feb 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Congratulations. Socrates was correct once again. Scholz’s unpopular Social Democrat government has the worst performance since World War II. Merz won, and Afd doubled its support, coming in second. If this was America, Merz’s less than 29% would have been a joke. Here, he will rule Germany and stupidly vow no coalition with AfD. He has not got the memo as you say that the people are shifting.

Thank you for Socrates. This is the only forecaster that is not biased.

Hans

REPLY: Yes, Friedrich Merz’s conservative opposition leader, what would not be even a headline in the United States. When you have so many parties fighting, you get very ineffective governments. That many Italians have told me keeps politicians arguing against each other and leaving the people alone. Indeed, as our computer projected, the Alternative for Germany nearly doubled its support, putting in the strongest showing for an alleged “far-right party” that had been against wholesale immigration since World War II.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat for his left-leaning Social Democrats. He said it was “a bitter election result.” Perhaps he should listen to the people rather than to Kaus Schwab. Marxism does not work. It has destroyed every economy it has ever been deployed because it is outright against human nature.

Merz vowed to move quickly to put together a coalition government but has vowed not to make a coalition with AfD all because the press has labeled them far-right, asking to be Nazis. Any coalition Merz created without AfD will only doom Germany to a continuation of the never-ending economic stagnation of Europe’s biggest economy thanks to Russian sanctions and the stupid net-zero climate change policies. Merz had pushed hard in recent weeks for a stricter approach, but with opposition to NATO against peace with Russia in order to remain relevant, will Merz fall in line with the EU war objectives?

Germany is the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a leading member of NATO. It has been Ukraine’s second-biggest weapons supplier after the U.S. Therein lies the problem. Scholtz promised Zelensky he would be his biggest supporter. Ukraine only takes. I never give up anything. The Ukraine government is the most corrupt government runs it in the world, and they are like a merchant who takes your money and declares all sales are final and have no returns.

Based on exit polls and partial counting, the projections put support for Merz’s Union bloc came in at around 28.5% and the anti-immigration AfD at about 20.5% — roughly double its result from 2021. Scholz’s Social Democrats collapsed to just over 16%, which was an all-time historic low even under the 20.5% from 2017. The Greens came in at an appalling just over 12%.

Merz made a huge mistake because of the press and dismissed the idea that voters wanted a coalition with AfD. “We have fundamentally different views, for example on foreign policy, on security policy, in many other areas, regarding Europe, the euro, NATO,” he said. Mertz has ignored the vote and he is just doing as directed by the EU and NATO. This does not speak well for Germany’s’s changing directions.

I do not see Mertz changing Germany’s economic direction. He must reject the EU and NATO and listen to the German people.