Tag Archives: Cycle of Civilization

Nov 27 2023

Beware May 7th, 2024


Posted originally on Nov 27, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi

QUESTION: Marty, Thank you for a fantastic conference. If it were not for your forecast that the dollar would rise and rates would rise, putting European banks in distress before the USA, you would have saved our company a fortune. I know it’s Socrates, but we still need you here.

Now that they have postponed the visa for Americans for a year, will you ever come to Europe to do a WEC?

P

2024 Russian Elections

ANSWER: Since the very day of the high in this ECM wave that peaks, May 7th, 2024, just so happens to be the very inauguration day for the next Russian President, I am considering having a short conference rather than a 3-day event. They are like putting on a wedding, for we have to provide all the meals and the cocktail party alone, and they charge $75 a head. Because of the importance of this turning point, economically and geopolitically, I am considering a condensed version in Europe, Dubai, or Mexico. I am working on those materials already since it raises some serious implications.

Remember that the Sovereign Debt Crisis, which has been brewing for years, is coming to a head post-2024.  China has already been selling off US debt. When there are no buyers, that is when it comes crashing down.

2023_Year_end_Report

I neglected to tell everyone who attended and those who bought the materials that, as usual, there will be a year-end report. This will be put into the portal for download.

Nov 24 2023

Black Friday – A Key Weekend for Retailers


Posted originally on Nov 24, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

Recession

Retailers have been preparing for Black Friday and Cyber Monday all year. The tradition of post-Thanksgiving shopping has spread internationally with companies throughout the world promoting special sales. The National Federation of Retailers in America predicts that 2023 will be one of the busiest shopping holidays in the nation’s history.

Around 182 million shoppers are expected to make purchases from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, marking a 15.7 million uptick from 2022. This also marks the highest estimate since the organization began compiling data in 2017. Despite inflation, 61% of 8,424 respondents to a poll said the deals presented are too good to pass on.

The bulk of spending is expected to occur on Black Friday with 130.7 million participants, followed by Cyber Monday which is expected to attract 71.1 million shoppers. Half of shoppers will be searching for presents for the upcoming holidays. In total, retail spending in November and December will reach up to $966.6 billion.

“The Thanksgiving holiday weekend marks some of the busiest shopping days of the year, as consumers enjoy the tradition of shopping for the perfect gifts for friends and loved ones,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers have been preparing for months for this occasion. They are stocked and ready to help customers find the gifts and other items they want at great prices during the entire holiday season.”

Although consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of GDP, the majority of Americans are living off of credit due to record inflation. So while people are spending during this 5-day holiday in anticipation of tomorrow’s price being higher, consumer spending at this point in time merely adds to the private debt crisis sweeping the nation.

Nov 20 2023

A Heartfelt Thank You to the Global Participants of the 2023 World Economic Conference


Posted originally on Nov 19, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

WEC Conference 2011

As the curtains close on yet another successful World Economic Conference, we find ourselves reflecting on the incredible energy, insights, and global collaboration that defined this year’s event. We extend our deepest gratitude to all the attendees, both in-person and online, who made the 2023 World Economic Conference a truly remarkable experience.

The hallmark of the World Economic Conference has always been its ability to bring together a diverse array of perspectives and expertise from every corner of the globe. This year was no exception. From boardrooms in bustling metropolises to home offices in remote locations, the global community came together to share insights, challenge assumptions, and explore innovative solutions to the world’s most pressing challenges.

To our esteemed guests who joined us in person, your presence added a special dimension to the conference. The vibrant discussions, networking opportunities, and the unique atmosphere you created enriched the event. Your commitment to being a part of this global conversation demonstrates the power of face-to-face interactions in fostering meaningful connections and collaborations.

The online participants played an equally crucial role in shaping the success of this year’s conference. Connecting from various time zones, you showcased the limitless possibilities of virtual collaboration. Your active engagement through virtual platforms allowed the conference to transcend geographical boundaries, making it accessible to a wider audience and fostering a sense of inclusivity.

The World Economic Conference is not just an event; it is a community of changemakers. Your presence, whether physical or virtual, strengthens this global network. Together, we are creating a platform where ideas are born, partnerships are forged, and a shared vision for a sustainable and prosperous future is cultivated.

In closing, we extend our sincere gratitude to each and every participant of the 2023 World Economic Conference. As we bid farewell to this year’s conference, we carry forward the inspiration and momentum created by the collective efforts of individuals dedicated to shaping a better world. Thank you for making the 2023 World Economic Conference truly great. We look forward to welcoming you again next year for another chapter of collaboration and innovation.

Nov 18 2023

The World Outlook Conference (1999) Re-Posted Nov 18, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Nov 17 2023

The 80-Year Cyclical Theory v. the Economic Confidence Model Re-Posted Nov 17, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Sixth Wave Economic Confidence Model ECM 309.6

The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been honing in on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory that marks a major shift in humanity. While this may be true as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the true Economic Confidence Model.

The 80-year theory, also called the Strauss–Howe generational theory, believes that there are four 20-year cycles or turnings that build up to a cataclysmic event. For example, some are using 2024 as the starting point, which brings us back to 1944 when America was at the cusp of World War II. Going back an additional 80 years would bring us to 1864 – the US Civil War. Taking it back even further we arrive at 1784 when the Revolutionary War ended.

Now, absolutely everything is connected, and to garner the most accurate forecasts requires peering out at society and the global economy. The problem with the 80-year theory is that it was developed from a solely American viewpoint as it was designed to explain the history and future of the United States.

1 ECM 2032 Pi Turning Point 1 Annotated

The Economic Confidence Model, at a basic level, sees waves of 8.6 years building in intensity amounting to six waves to construct a major long wave of 51.6 years. What you get at the end of these 51.6-year waves is very profound. After the 1774.95 peak, we end up with a revolution against the monarchy. The next wave peak in 1826.55 produced the Russo-Persian War, 1826-1828, Greek War of Independence, Battle of Monte Santiago between Brazil and Argentina, Mexican Constitution is formed, the Maryland Democratic Party begins creating the confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans (South v North) which sets the stage for the American Civil War in 1861, and even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the 4th of July 1826 (1826.50) marking the end of the generation of Enlightenment whereas the peak of the wave was July 19th. The next wave 1878 saw the Long Depression which was called the “Great Depression” until 1929-1932. The next wave peak of 1929,75 produced the takeover of the West by socialists. Then the next wave was 1981.35 which marked the peak in interest rates even to the day.

Each of these events shifted society as a whole. Capital concentration shifted in a profound way and changed nations. Nothing exists in isolation. The major wave will be 2032 and this will be followed by the shift from the West to the East in economic power.

Nov 13 2023

6th Grader Lauren Arrington Shows Curiosity is Everything Re-Posted Nov 13, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Einsteing Curiosity

I have told the story before that when I was doing my reach early on at Princeton University’s Firestone Library, I became friends with a professor who had known Einstein who taught there. He said to me that I reminded him of Einstein. I was shocked because I was not making new theories in Physics. He explained that the subject matter did not matter. It was my curiosity in trying to figure out how empires rose and fell that inspired me.

He said that Einstein always said we will discover nothing unless we are curious. I came to understand that was the very reason Communism collapsed. They tried to eliminate the business cycle under Marxism and, in the process, reduce humanity to zombie drones denied free thought and stripped of curiosity. Thus, Communism fell by its own weight. There are those spreading the same nonsense that always begins with “equality” and the great divide in wealth. If we all have the same wealth, you destroy the very essential element of how society advances through the ages.

1903 first Ford

In all my studies, that statement to me about curiosity opened the door to understanding how society advances and declines. Schumpeter saw the boom and bust of the economy as waves of creative destruction. The invention of the combustion engine and the car’s development destroyed the horse and buggy industry, allowing the suburbs around cities to expand. This is Henry Ford in his first car, built in 1903. If it were not for his curiosity, we would have been in 15-minute cities riding our chariots through the streets, and the climate zealots would be arguing to kill all the horses for they are causing climate change as if the climate is supposed to never change.

Lauren Arrington

A Florida sixth grader, Lauren Arrington, has leaped into scientific fame with a startling discovery that could redefine our approach to invasive lionfish. She caught one in freshwater, where it was not supposed to survive. She conducted her own experiment, gradually reducing the salt in the water, and the fish survived. This has been a groundbreaking discovery that demonstrates how important curiosity truly is. We will discover NOTHING without it.

Encourage your children always to be curious.

That is the key to how society advances in the business cycle. Everything depends on it.

Congratulations Lauren. You will go far in life. Retain that Curiosity no matter what.

We Desperately will need it in this world of Equality.

Nov 10 2023

The Ben Gurion Canal Project – Declassified Documents Reveal Truth Re-Posted Nov 10, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Ben Gurion Canal Project R

The US and Israel have been discussing plans to build a canal to rival the Suez Canal for over 50 years. We must look at recent history to see the motives for the war occurring today. Around 20% of all world trade moves through the Suez Canal, which is controlled by Egypt. The Suez Canal was initially jointly controlled by French investors and Egypt. Isma’il Pasha was forced to sell Egypt’s shares to Britain amid a liquidity crisis in Egypt. Former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser reclaimed the lucrative trade route in 1956, sparking the second Arab-Israeli war also known as the Suez Crisis.

The West does not want to rely on Egypt, a close ally of Russia, for world trade. The Ben Gurion Canal Project, or Israeli Canal, has been the proposed solution since the 60s. Where would this canal be located? Part of it would flow precisely through the Gaza Strip. The passage would start by the port city of Eilat in Israel through the Gulf of Aqaba, crossing the Jordanian border and flowing through the Arabah Valley before entering the Dead Sea before heading north around the Gaza Strip.

Declassified documents reveal that the US Department of Energy was planning to take extreme measures to make this canal possible. On July 1, 1963, a plan was outlined to create the Israeli Canal by detonating 520 underground nuclear explosions throughout the Negev Desert. “Such a canal would be a strategically valuable alternate to the present Suez Canal and would probably contribute greatly to the economic development of the surrounding area,” the declassified document stated.

The document notes that 130 of the 160 miles dedicated to the canal are “virtually unpopulated desert wasteland,” but the primary issue would be relocating those from the Gaza Strip. “Another problem which has not been considered is that of political feasibility, as it is likely that the Arab countries surrounding Israel would object strongly to the construction of such a canal,” the declassified papers show.

Follow the money, always. The West does not want Egypt and, therefore, Russia to have control over world trade and the movement of goods. The plan was never executed because they knew no Arab nation would agree to such a power grab, and those 30 pesky miles of densely populated land mostly belonged to Palestine. This is all because the Neocons are hell-bent on isolating Russia but at the expense of dividing the world. Is this why Blinken is saying there will be no peace in Israel and Ukraine?

This is all tied in with Yemen, and there is so much more going on behind the curtain that would shock people on all sides. We will deal with the real complexity in a Special Report for the WEC Nov 17-19.

Israel Its Future
Nov 6 2023

Israel Shoots Down the First Missile in Space Re-Posted Nov 5, 2023 By Martin Armstrong


2023_11_05_19_45_35_In_a_first_Israel_shoots_down_a_ballistic_missile_in_space

Israel has just made an important step in warfare. Their Arrow missile-defense system has shot down a ballistic missile outside of Earth’s atmosphere, which is the first time warfare has taken place in space. This was an Iranian missile launched from Yemen by the Iran-backed Houthis, who have declared war on Israel.  This missile traveled out of the Earth’s atmosphere in hopes of avoiding all radar, and this would be a surprise attack. This flew nearly 1000 miles (1600km) over the Arabian peninsula outside the atmosphere and would then turn down targeting the Israeli port city of Eilat.

This was not one of those propaganda stories from Ukraine how they shot down six unstoppable Russian missiles in a single day. Nothing that comes from Ukraine is ever trustworthy, and certainly not from the Institute for the Study of War – Victoria Nuland’s sister-in-law who always says Russia is about to collapse..

This is the first missile to be shot down outside the atmosphere and has ushered in a new level of warfare.

Nov 5 2023

Interview: Gold and the Dollar will Rise Together Re-Posted Nov 5, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Watch the video above or click here to watch my latest interview with Goldseek Radio.

Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, outlines his gold market projections in lieu of unraveling geopolitical conditions.

Armstrong says, “You have a lot of uncertainty and confusing trends developing. When this materializes in people understanding what’s happening…the dollar and gold would go up together. Because you are looking at a flight of capital. Some people want to buy gold, some people want to get out of Europe, etc. Not everybody does the same thing. The two trends will come together. That’s what our computer is projecting, and it’s happened many times in history.”

– Epic gold breakout ahead!
– Convergence of economic themes – recession next year and escalating conflicts?
– Comments on crude oil.
– On the cusp of WWIII by 2025?
– How to foment de-escalation within the ranks of the power-hungry elite.
– Might societal decay accelerate?
– Tangible assets are key to surviving collapse.
– 90% silver coins remain an ideal survival investment.

Nov 1 2023

Iran Demands the Removal of Starlink – Could Governments Repel These Satellites? Re-Posted Nov 1, 2023 By Martin Armstrong



We know why Israel is upset with Elon Musk for sending Starlink services to Palestine, but now Iran is also demanding that he remove the satellites. Truth is always the first casualty in war. Governments are censoring absolutely everything to prevent the truth from spreading. Iranian journalism is non-existent and people rely on social media to receive their information through the use of VPNs. Iran has previously shutdown internet access for its own people and disabled VPN servers to prevent people from seeking the truth.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) believes the Islamic Republic “enslaved Iran’s internet.” “The Islamic Republic’s strategy is cruel – locking its people into an empty information space and blocking all escape routes,” said Vincent Berthier, the head of RSF’s Tech Desk. “Internet shutdowns form the main barrier to information, and when the network comes back online, the government obstructs access in another way, by preventing access to VPNs. We call on the Iranian authorities to lift these oppressive constraints. Iranians have the right to access news and information freely.”

Iran has blocked the Apple App Store and Google Play to deter people from downloading a VPN to bypass censorship. WhatsApp and Signal have been blocked as they do not allow people to communicate. Internet shutdowns often occur regionally as the Iranian government will simply revoke all internet communications at whim. A company called Arvan Cloud has assisted Iran’s Information and Communications Technology Ministry in developing the National Information Network (NIN) to block the people from free communication. Ironically, the US placed sanctions on the company in June 2023. The US government prefers to discreetly block information rather than turning off the internet entirely.

2022_12_03_Musk_Says_Twitter_Orderd_by_Government 300x285

Now in comes Elon Musk. He recently said he plans to make X (formerly Twitter) an all-purpose app that allows calls and messaging. He is permitting everyone to post to his social media channel and it has become the top spot for government officials to send the public instant alerts. His Starlink technology will ensure that people can access X and the internet. Starlink satellites operate at an altitude of 340 miles and would be extremely costly to shoot down and only a few countries have anti-satellite technology. It’s also not like Musk is sending one satellite as they launch a stack of them at once.

There is a reason Putin did not attempt to shoot down Starlink over Ukraine. First of all, it is extremely costly and a waste of resources. Secondly, these devices are technically American assets and attempting to remove them could be seen as an act of war. Third, they could not shoot these down without causing orbital debris and angering the international community. Russia or China could spend countless resources on anti-satellite technology, but Musk could simply send more. The only way to close them would be to attack the ground station, a move that could only be done by the West.