The Exsultet (Easter Proclamation)


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 16, 2022 | Menagerie

Exult, let them exult, the hosts of heaven,
exult, let Angel ministers of God exult,
let the trumpet of salvation
sound aloud our mighty King’s triumph!

Be glad, let earth be glad, as glory floods her,
ablaze with light from her eternal King,
let all corners of the earth be glad,
knowing an end to gloom and darkness.

Rejoice, let Mother Church also rejoice,
arrayed with the lightning of his glory,
let this holy building shake with joy,
filled with the mighty voices of the peoples.

(Therefore, dearest friends,
standing in the awesome glory of this holy light,
invoke with me, I ask you,
the mercy of God almighty,
that he, who has been pleased to number me,
though unworthy, among the Levites,
may pour into me his light unshadowed,
that I may sing this candle’s perfect praises.)

(V. The Lord be with you.
R. And with your spirit.)
V. Lift up your hearts.
R. We lift them up to the Lord.
V. Let us give thanks to the Lord our God.
R. It is right and just.

It is truly right and just, with ardent love of mind and heart
and with devoted service of our voice,
to acclaim our God invisible, the almighty Father,
and Jesus Christ, our Lord, his Son, his Only Begotten.

Who for our sake paid Adam’s debt to the eternal Father,
and, pouring out his own dear Blood,
wiped clean the record of our ancient sinfulness.

These, then, are the feasts of Passover,
in which is slain the Lamb, the one true Lamb,
whose Blood anoints the doorposts of believers.

This is the night,
when once you led our forebears, Israel’s children,
from slavery in Egypt
and made them pass dry-shod through the Red Sea.

This is the night
that with a pillar of fire
banished the darkness of sin.

This is the night
that even now, throughout the world,
sets Christian believers apart from worldly vices
and from the gloom of sin,
leading them to grace
and joining them to his holy ones.

This is the night,
when Christ broke the prison-bars of death
and rose victorious from the underworld.

Our birth would have been no gain,
had we not been redeemed.

O wonder of your humble care for us!
O love, O charity beyond all telling,
to ransom a slave you gave away your Son!
O truly necessary sin of Adam,
destroyed completely by the Death of Christ!
O happy fault
that earned so great, so glorious a Redeemer!

O truly blessed night,
worthy alone to know the time and hour
when Christ rose from the underworld!

This is the night
of which it is written:
The night shall be as bright as day,
dazzling is the night for me,
and full of gladness.

The sanctifying power of this night
dispels wickedness, washes faults away,
restores innocence to the fallen, and joy to mourners,
drives out hatred, fosters concord, and brings down the mighty.
On this, your night of grace, O holy Father,
accept this candle, a solemn offering,
the work of bees and of your servants’ hands,
an evening sacrifice of praise,
this gift from your most holy Church.

But now we know the praises of this pillar,
which glowing fire ignites for God’s honor,
a fire into many flames divided,
yet never dimmed by sharing of its light,
for it is fed by melting wax,
drawn out by mother bees
to build a torch so precious.

O truly blessed night,
when things of heaven are wed to those of earth,
and divine to the human.

Therefore, O Lord,
we pray you that this candle,
hallowed to the honor of your name,
may persevere undimmed,
to overcome the darkness of this night.

Receive it as a pleasing fragrance,
and let it mingle with the lights of heaven.

May this flame be found still burning
by the Morning Star:
the one Morning Star who never sets,
Christ your Son,
who, coming back from death’s domain,
has shed his peaceful light on humanity,
and lives and reigns for ever and ever.

“It is finished”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 15, 2022 | Sundance

and He bowed His head and dismissed His spirit.

There is a knot that builds in our throat.

Painful, yet not an ordinary discomfort.

It surfaces in one human sense….  Anguish.

Then tears.

Emotions that flow when we dare to slow down and feel.

Deeply feel.

The death of Jesus Christ, as a choice.

He hung on a cross and died for us.

So that we would know.

He had all control, and he made His choice for us.

For you.

For me.

For us.

For everyone who ever was, and ever will be.

It is finished.

Good Friday Reproaches


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 15, 2022 | Menagerie

March Retail Sales Report Shows Contraction in Non-Essential Consumer Spending


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 14, 2022 | sundance 

The U.S. Census Bureau {LINK} reports the March retail sales data {pdf LINK} showing a contraction in sales overall (excluding gasoline) and a massive contraction in on-line sales.  As we expected, we are seeing the continued demand side contraction for non-essential purchases.

First, when you review the data, keep in mind all of the statistics are based on dollars.  Currently the BLS calculates the rate of inflation at 8.5 percent year over year. So, when we look at retail sales figures, we must remember the items being sold cost more.  Any reported sales figures in a sector that do not exceed the inflation in that sector, indicates decline in units sold.

The top-line for March retail sales is 0.5% growth; however, the rate of inflation is 8.5%, so the amount of goods sold is substantially less than the 0.5% dollar increase would indicate.  Subtract the sales of gasoline (w/ massive price increases), and retail sales are negative (-0.3%) in March.  SEE TABLE-2

A good category to note the contraction in non-essential purchases is electronics and appliances.  Again, CORE inflation in that segment is around 6%, and yet total sales were only 3.3% higher, meaning less actual units sold.  Compared to 2021, electronics and appliance sales dropped 9.7%.

Showing how much people are pinched, gasoline prices are around 60% higher than this time last year, yet gas station sales only increased by 8.9%.  This means people are buying a lot less fuel at much higher prices.  People have shifted their transportation habits because gas costs so much.

Two more very interesting notes:

Food and beverage stores only reflected a 1.0% increase in sales, amid massive inflation in that sector.  People are buying less food at higher prices.  The year-over-year rate of retail sales increase for supermarkets is 8.4%, however, prices in the grocery store are well beyond 20%.  Again, food prices are changing shopping habits.   You can see the same trend in Health and Beauty Care products.  Consumers are being thrifty and prioritizing their expenses away from non-essentials.

Secondly, perhaps the most obvious shift in consumer spending is noted in on-line (nonstore) retailers.  March retail sales dropped 6.4 percent for on-line shoppers, again as a consequence of much higher on-line prices and some product unavailability.

The bottom line of the Retail Sales report is not unfamiliar to us.  What we are seeing is a lessening in overall consumer spending, as the costs for food, fuel, energy and housing have skyrocketed.   The demand for non-essential purchases is what we would naturally expect to see amid a nation having to make tough purchasing decisions based on inflation.

The economic policy of the people behind Joe Biden is catastrophic, and it appears to be a feature not a flaw.

That said, wise people -including people here- know how to extend their budgets and make use of raw ingredients for multiple purposed meals.  Keep doing that as much as possible to offset the dramatic increases in price.  Look for sales, use coupons, multipurpose products and be smart with purchase decisions.

We can and will get through this together.

If you have tips for people to assist with lowering costs of everyday items, please feel free to share them in the comments section below.  We always find excellent ideas around us for small ways to save.

Coming from a family whose Tupperware® was a matching set of Cool Whip containers, I can tell you there are times when being frugal is a valued skillset.  I welcome all the great advice we share as a community, and I will not let these horrible government officials remove joy.

I’ve been broke more than most, but I ain’t never been poor.

I appreciate you.

Inflation Rate Jumps to 8.5 Percent as Energy, Food and Gasoline Prices Skyrocket


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 12, 2022 | Sundance 

This is not going to be news to CTH readers and intellectually honest analysts.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics has released the March consumer pricing data [DATA HERE] showing the recent surge in energy, gasoline and food costs that we have all felt.

The monthly increase of 1.3% brings the annual rate of inflation to 8.5 percent year-over-year.  However, the details tell the exact story we have been outlining for well over six months.   This is the second wave of inflation being recorded.  Grocery store prices (food at home), energy prices, and gasoline prices are all driving the inflation rate. [BLS Table 1]

Again, I modified Table-1 to take out the noise.  The data shows what we have felt for the past two months.  Working class families are feeling the pinch as their wages cannot keep pace with the increase in prices on products that are a priority.  Food, housing, gasoline, energy.

If we were using the old CPI method for analysis, current inflation would be well above 20%.

That said, there are issues also inherent and visible in the data for the non-food and energy segments, what I would call the durable goods side.  First, we are seeing the beginning of the durable good contraction getting quantified as we have previously discussed.   The prices for used vehicles, electronics, appliances and other non-critical durable goods are now flatlining, or even dropping in price.

Every indication within the economy indicates this is being caused by a demand contraction.  People are not purchasing durable goods because their disposable income is gone.  This lack of demand also shows up in wage rate suppression.  Despite high employment, wages are not rising – in part because there is excess productivity in the durable good economy.

You will note from Table-2 [available here] that food away from home, restaurant food, is not climbing as high as food at the grocery store (0.3% -vs- 1.5%).   Restaurants are trying to keep prices down and their profit margins are being eroded.  They are in a tough place, because if restaurants raise prices, they may lose customers who are already feeling pain in their checkbooks.  However, they cannot hold out much longer before raising prices, because the price increases are permanent.

The good news is the March data appears to quantify the apex of the second wave rate of inflation.  The rate of increase in food, fuel and energy will now start to moderate and slow down.  The prices may, likely will, keep going up, but they will go up less dramatically than they have in the past six months.  This price plateau will hopefully remain in place until late summer, that’s when the next harvest food costs will hit in Wave-3.

On the durable goods, what we will see now is a typical demand side issue.  Price increases for durable goods will quickly, if they are not already, be less connected to material costs and more connected to demand.   Obviously, the cost to manufacture, create, produce, transport and deliver durable goods is still experiencing upward pressure due to raw materials.  However, the demand variable will now enter more dominantly.

With wage growth meek and prices still rising on essentials like food, housing, energy and gasoline, demand for non-essential durable goods will drop. The demand decline should naturally put downward price pressure on appliances, electronics, used vehicles, etc.  Unfortunately, this also contracts the overall economy, creates unemployment, and indicates “stagflation.”

(MSM) – […] The consumer price index leaped 8.5% annually, the fastest pace since December 1981, the Labor Department said on Tuesday, likely cementing Federal Reserve plans for an unusually large half-point interest rate hike early next month. That increase is up from 7.9% in February and inflation now has notched new 40-year highs for five straight months. (more)

We will need to watch the service side closely now to see if consumers start to lessen travel, entertainment, and other service side expenses.

Protect your family.  Be frugal, wise and smart with expenses.  However, do not trouble yourself with dark imaginings.

If you are like most here, you have prepared yourself with commonsense actions and you are a doer who fixes problems, not a naysayer who sits around mulling over them.  Your family, kids and/or grandkids as well as your community can benefit from wise, albeit sometimes stern, counsel.  Stand strong, stand firm and stand resolute.

All of these challenges are simply that, challenges.  Work any problem as it arises, including for the kids.  And also remember, God is in charge, not you. So, listen to his instructions.  Listen to that instinct he buried within you.  Draw upon the strength that a loving God constantly provides.

Be a vessel for those who need hope.  Be a guiding light for those who feel distressed. Be cheerfully strong among everyone around you, and thankful for all the kindness you experience.  If you get stuck, start giving….

Ultimately, everything is a choice.  So, be the lighthouse, not the rocks.

P

Palm Sunday, Holy Week Begins


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 10, 2022 | Menagerie

At the Procession with Palms – Gospel

Lk 19:28-40

Jesus proceeded on his journey up to Jerusalem.
As he drew near to Bethphage and Bethany
at the place called the Mount of Olives,
he sent two of his disciples.

He said, “Go into the village opposite you,
and as you enter it you will find a colt tethered
on which no one has ever sat.
Untie it and bring it here.
And if anyone should ask you,
‘Why are you untying it?’
you will answer,
‘The Master has need of it.’”
So those who had been sent went off
and found everything just as he had told them.
And as they were untying the colt, its owners said to them,
“Why are you untying this colt?”
They answered,
“The Master has need of it.”
So they brought it to Jesus,
threw their cloaks over the colt,
and helped Jesus to mount.
As he rode along,
the people were spreading their cloaks on the road;
and now as he was approaching the slope of the Mount of Olives,
the whole multitude of his disciples
began to praise God aloud with joy
for all the mighty deeds they had seen.
They proclaimed:
“Blessed is the king who comes
in the name of the Lord.
Peace in heaven
and glory in the highest.”
Some of the Pharisees in the crowd said to him,
“Teacher, rebuke your disciples.”
He said in reply,
“I tell you, if they keep silent,
the stones will cry out!”

The Reedy Creek Improvement District


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politically Correct Re-Posted Apr 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Are you familiar with the Reedy Creek Improvement District? Perhaps you have heard of Disney. A 1967 piece of legislation permitted Disney to operate independently from the government. That’s right – Congress awarded Disney with special privileges to operate above the law:

 “The district encompasses approximately 25,000 acres in both Orange and Osceola counties, servicing 19 landowners, including Walt Disney Co. and its wholly-owned affiliates. RCID operates in accordance with its Charter and Chapter 189, Florida Statutes, The Uniform Special Districts Accountability Act.”

Their special privileges have come under scrutiny in recent years as Disney dealt with the coronavirus separately from the state of Florida. However, the company is now intent on preserving the woke agenda and defying state law by acting as a moral guardian. Former Disney CEO Bob Iger said he plans to continue fighting Governor DeSantis on the Parental Rights in Education bill. “It’s about right and wrong,” Iger told reporters at CNN while denying that his opposition had any political backing.

Their woke message bit them at their last shareholder meeting where CEO Bob Chapek stated he would actively seek to oppose the bill. They were accused of turning a blind eye to the Uyghur camps in China. “Disney executives say they will not release any new films in Russia due to Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine. Since when do ESG principles mean you get to support genocidal regimes in Asia, but you must oppose colonial warmongering in Europe?” one shareholder questioned. In fact, a third of shareholders are now requesting that Disney take action against China despite profits.

Why is a company becoming entrenched in a state bill surrounding teaching children about sexuality? How will this bode for shareholders? Interestingly, Socrates noted in advance that this would be a volatile week for Disney:

“The week of March 28th with the opposite trend implied thereafter into the week of April 4th which is a Directional Change.”

DeSantis is now considering repealing their ability to operate as an independent district. “Disney has alienated a lot of people now,” DeSantis said at a West Palm Beach press conference. “And so the political influence they’re used to wielding, I think has dissipated. And so the question is, why would you want to have special privileges in the law at all? And I don’t think that that we should.”

Time will tell whether Disney has sacrificed itself for the woke agenda.

Political Corruption – House of Cards


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Biden – Inflation – Risk to National Security


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Apr 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Martin,
What do you think banks will do with mortgages if we continue experiencing high inflation and/or hyperinflation? Do you think we might be able to pay off a mortgage with gold if things get bad enough?

Marc

ANSWER: No! The contract is in dollars and that cannot be altered. There won’t be hyper-inflation for that takes place when the CONFIDENCE in government completely collapses. The shallow analysis of even the German Hyperinflation has created such a myth that inflation is the result of an increase in the money supply – WRONG!!!!!!

To set the record straight, the hyperinflation followed the Weimar Republic’s FORCED LOAN in December 1922 when they seized 10% of everyone’s assets and gave you a bond you can buy on Ebay. Once that took place, people would no longer accept German currency and exchanged everything for foreign currencies, art, rare coins, stamps, and real estate.

In 1925, when Germany had to issue a new currency, it was backed NOT by gold, but by real estate. The same human response took place in Zimbabwe and even Japan because the emperors would devalue the outstanding money supply to 10% of what it was valued out and issued their own coins at the new value. The people refused to accept Japanese coins turning to Chinese and bags of rice. Japan lost the ability to issue coinage for 600 years.

This inflation is NOT based on printing money. This inflation is based upon shortages of goods. The source is very different and this is not going to end well. Biden’s sanctions have undermined the entire world supply chain. We are all connected and that includes Russia and China.

To create even more deliberate chaos, the Biden Administration is now out to impose trade restrictions on China as well. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is advocating a dramatic change in the United States’s relationship with China. The Biden White House has concluded that trade with China should be altered to be a defensive economic posture rather than continuing under the Phase One trade deal brokered between the Trump administration and Beijing. Like everything else, whatever Trump did, Biden is going out of his way to reverse it.

This will only further increase inflation right into 2024 and destroying the world economy removes any incentive to work together. Once Biden destroys the economic foundation ties with China all to put pressure on the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset, it looks like all-out World War III will unfold after 2024. Biden and his entire family have been bought and paid for. I find it outrageous that the Democrats demand Justice Thomas recuse himself because of comments of his wife, yet Biden is perfectly fine dealing with China and Russia when they have poured millions into his family’s pockets.

Biden seriously needs to be REMOVED from office as a matter of National Security.

The Laptop from Hell – DOJ Protects the Biden Family


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re- Posted Apr 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong