Published on Jul 12, 2018
Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest
Re-Posted Jul 13, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Reuters is reporting that Northern Ireland was hit by a new wave of street violence overnight on the eve of annual parades. This is demonstrating that there remains underlying tensions between pro-British Protestants and Irish nationalist Catholics in the British occupied region. Vehicles were set on fire, petrol bombs were thrown, and roads were closed off in violence in several towns. The parade marks the 1690 victory of Protestant King William of Orange over Catholic King James of England. Therefore, it feeds right into the conflict between the Protestants and Catholics which has existed since the time of Henry VIII’s seizure of the Catholic Church to affect the divorce he was being denied.
The first death in the conflict in Belfast is disputed involving Francis McCloskey (aged 67) who died one day after being hit on the head with a baton by a member of the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) during street disturbances in Dungiven, County Derry on Sunday, July 14th, 1968. The official first death was the fatal shooting of a Catholic on Thursday, August 14th, 1969. The person was John Gallagher was shot dead by the Ulster Special Constabulary (‘B-Specials’) during street disturbances on the Cathedral Road in Armagh. John Gallagher is recorded as the first ‘official’ victim of tensions in Northern Ireland. The first Protestant Civilian to be killed took place on Friday, August 15th, 1969 named David Linton (aged 48) who died after being shot by a Republican group during street disturbances in North Belfast. The actual first members of Irish Republican Army (IRA) to be killed took place on Friday, August 15th, 1969. His name was Gerald McAuley (aged 15), who was a member of Fianna Éireann, which was the youth section of the Irish Republican Army (IRA). He was shot dead by Loyalists during street disturbances in the Lower Falls area of Belfast.
From a cyclical perspective, if we begin on August 15th, 1969, then we are concluding a 51.6-year wave on 2021.2219178, which will be March 22nd. It is lining up with the Economic Confidence Model and the Monetary Crisis Cycle. Therefore, the violence will reemerge with a new trend once again driven by economics. Violence has continued sporadically but it has been rising gradually again since 2013.
The violence against Irish Catholics in America erupted in 1844 during the Sovereign Debt Defaults of states and the economic decline in the aftermath of the Panic of 1837 (Dates of ECM Waves). When Andrew Jackson shut down the central bank, the Bank of the United States at that time, all banks began to issue money of their own. The economy was flooded with frauds and nobody knew what banks were real or safe. As banks failed, the States tried to bail out the banks to save their economy and they too were pushed into default. The Depression that followed raised unemployment and violence.
The BBC’s condescending Emily Maitlis demands support for the European Union and challenges the sovereign authority of Hungary to self-determination. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó was having none of that nonsense, and pushed back against little Miss feelings.
This occurs on the heels of Italy rebuking the EU immigration platform; and a weakened German Chancellor Angela Merkel having to beg political allies in Bavaria for support:
BERLIN (Reuters) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s political future rests in the hands of the Christian Social Union (CSU) on Sunday, when the Bavarian party’s leadership meets to decide whether to accept migration deals she brought back from Brussels.
Nine months after elections that saw her lose votes to the far right, a weakened Merkel was forced to turn to European Union neighbors to help resolve a conflict with her allies after they rebelled against her immigration policy.
The party’s leader, interior minister Horst Seehofer, threatened to turn migrants back from the Bavarian border, a move that would almost certainly precipitate a government collapse. (read more)
Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany
Re-Posted Jun 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
The polls in Germany show that discontent is now rising and 43% of the people want Merkel to resign. She only won 32.8% to begin with. Germany is also shifting and nationalism is rising, which is what the AfD is all about these days. A YouGov survey showed that 43% of Germans now want her to leave office, compared with 42% who want her to remain. The no opinion came in at 15%. Even in her own CDU-CSU coalition, 27% want to see her resign.
The survey demonstrates that the refugee policy Merkel initiated without a European vote is not merely tearing the EU apart, but Germany as well. Italy has warned that the very survival of the EU is at stake over the refugee migration crisis. Meanwhile, Merkel is increasingly in a difficult position as she fights an internal battle with her coalition partner, the Bavarian CSU, over imposing border controls that Merkel believes risks undermining the Schengen free movement zone. But she is the one that invited the refugees to begin with unilaterally.
There was an emergency summit in Brussels in a bid to try and create a “European solution” to the migration crisis. EU leaders gathered for an emergency summit on migration but this was really an attempt to show support for Angela Merkel’s government. The refugee migration crisis has exposed deep divisions in the EU bloc over how to deal with African and Middle Eastern migration consisting of more than 95%+ males and has nothing to do with Syrian refugees from war. They are not even skilled laborers. People who migrated from India even to Britain had to speak the language and have some skill. The USA has similar criteria. This migration goes against all historical precedent. This is just an attempt to help Merkel who has become the real face of Europe worldwide.
FBI Agent Peter Strzok appears before a joint house committee today for a closed hearing deposition. Mr. Strzok will appear before an open congressional hearing to be scheduled later. Today’s deposition is an opportunity to ask questions and get an “official record” of specific answers to multiple lines of inquiry.
Peter Strzok is at the center of four specifically known corrupt DOJ and FBI operations. 1) The Clinton exoneration operation. 2) The Trump investigation “Crossfire Hurricane”. 3) “Spygate”, and the abuse of the FISA court; and 4) The origin of the Mueller probe.
The deposition questioning is being directed from a hand-picked group of lawmakers. Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte determined who will ask the questions. One of the lawmakers selected was Jim Jordan.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Italy
Re-Posted Jun 24, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Italy will no longer rescue immigrants sailing from Libya. They have withdrawn their Italian Coast Guard and instructed captains of vessels that from now on, ships in the area off Libya should apply for help to the Libyan Coast Guard. Up to now, the Italian Coast Guard has played an important role in coordinating refugee rescue operations outside its own waters. According to Maritime Law, the coordinator of a rescue operation must provide the refugees with a safe haven. Italy will no longer provide that status off the coast of a foreign country. Ital began recusing ships back in 2015. Under Maritime Law, once they did that, they were obligated to give them shelter. Here back in 2015, they recused 1,000 but most of these are just men, not families with women and children.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized
Re-Posted Jun 22, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
The Refugee Crisis in Europe is tearing it apart and all of this began with a unilateral decision by Merkel when her polls declined because of her tough policy on Greece. The refusal to compensate Italy and to demand they take in refugees but denies them the right to send them north proves the very point that I have been getting from Italy behind the curtain – they feel they are an occupied country.
Italy said it will seize two migrant rescue ships in the Mediterranean, as this refugee policy of the EU continues to worsen. We are up against politicians in Brussels and Germany who simply refuse to admit that they made serious mistakes. They fear that admitting that will ruin their personal careers so the entire European Union must suffer. Now the two German NGO ships carrying refugees who are really economic migrants looking for a free lunch “will be seized” to determine their legal status according to Italy.
The response from Italy comes on the heels of the insensitive remarks of French President Emmanuel Macron who called this the “leprosy” of anti-EU feeling, which is only angering the Italian populist government and the people. This is where this feeling that is related to me is building that they have NO SAY in the fate of their own country and they have simply become an occupied country as if they lost the war and Germany won.
Italy sparked the fresh round of discontent earlier this month when it refused to take in the Aquarius refugee ship, which was carrying 630 migrants rescued off the coast of North Africa. Malta also refused to accept the ship and so it went off to Spain. If Spain refuses, Greece, and Portugal, then perhaps the ships will go beyond the Pillars of Hercules and sail to France and Belgium so Brussels can be inundated itself. Perhaps then the policy will change.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany
Re-Posted Jun 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
There are some saying that Angela Merkel will be overthrown in a matter of weeks and others saying that there is no plot to remove her. Nevertheless, scandal rising in Germany over the refugee crisis keeps brewing behind the curtain. Cyclically, 2018 may be a peak in Merkel’s career despite what people are trying to deny.
Angela Merkel was born in Hamburg, West Germany, on July 17, 1954, and was actually trained as a physicist. She entered politics after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall. She eventually rose to the position of chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union party becoming Germany’s first female chancellor. Moreover, Merkel has actually become the best-known politician in Europe whose face is more recognized than anyone else in Europe no less Brussels.
Merkel grew up in a rural area of the German Democratic Republic or East Germany. She studied physics at the University of Leipzig, earning a doctorate in 1978, and later worked as a chemist at the Central Institute for Physical Chemistry, Academy of Sciences from 1978 to 1990. She has obviously not made the connection between physics and the economy for if she just looked at the laws of thermodynamics she would have an epiphany and realize that there MUST be a business cycle.
Nevertheless, with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, Germany was caught up in a euphoric moment and many expected East Germans to have the same work-ethics as those in the West as well as an understanding of the way things really worked. Merkel joined the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) political party and was quickly appointed to Helmut Kohl’s cabinet as minister for women and youth. She rose simply because she was a woman and from the East. It made good political propaganda. Merkel would later serve as minister for the environment and nuclear safety.
The political tide began to change and with Kohl’s defeat in the 1998 general election, she was named secretary-general of the CDU. Then in 2000, Angela Merkel was chosen party leader, but she lost the CDU candidacy for the chancellor to Edmund Stoiber in 2002.
Finally, on October 10th, 2005 Germany was on the brink of a new and volatile political era until a deal was cut that made the conservative leader Angela Merkel the country’s first ever woman chancellor. It came only after three weeks of a long, complicated dispute over the previous month’s indecisive election, Gerhard Schröder announced he was resigning. Angela Merkel became chancellor leading a “grand coalition” between her Christian Democrat party and its Bavarian ally the Christian Social Union, and Schröder’s Social Democrats.
Many questioned just how long such a coalition would last. Nonetheless, Schröder’s resignation came with a huge price tag. The Social Democrats emerged from days of secret negotiations with eight seats in Germany’s new cabinet and virtually all the big portfolios – including foreign, finance, health, environment, and transport. Merkel gave up tremendous economic power to become chancellor with the CDU taking only six cabinet posts. Merkel denied that the Social Democrats had got all the best jobs, and instead called it a “new beginning for Germany”.
Therefore, Merkel became Germany’s first female chancellor since it became a nation in 1871 who was also from East Germany fulfilling a dual role as the first female chancellor and the first East German chancellor to take control of Germany. Merkel was then elected to a second term in 2009.
Angela Merkel was reelected for a fourth term as chancellor in September 2017 with a vote that was well below 35%. However, although her CDU party held its majority in the Bundestag, because of her policy on allowing all the refugees into Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 13% emerging as the new third-largest group in parliament for the first time a right-wing political party regained any power since 1961.
Following the 2017 election, political problems surfaced by mid-November 2017 in the attempt to form a new government coalition collapsed. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) pulled out of talks with the CDU/CSU and the Greens, over differences regarding the refugee crisis.
The entire refugee crisis is clearly going to be Merkel’s downfall. Then in March 2018, the SPD voted to renew its coalition with the CDU after its leader Martin Schulz resigned. This step finally cleared a path for Merkel to retain the position as chancellor, but she would have to give up financial control to the socialists to maintain her political power for a fourth term.
Nevertheless, the refugee crisis and the mismanagement of the entire issue has resulted in clashes between Angela Merkel and German interior minister Horst Seehofer. There is a serious political crisis brewing where Merkel could be forced out of her chancellor position.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Re-Posted Jun 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
After reading your blog post about the 300% increase in the cost of healthcare for refugees, I wondered the cost in this country for illegal aliens. Healthcare. Education. Food stamps. Etc. I googled anywhere from 3.4 to 11 billion dollars from health care alone.
I laughed out loud after reading the above. You wrote about the turn on the last group of people off the boat.
Keep up the good work and see you in Nov
ANSWER: The cost of socialism is not merely over the top, it has altered the migration patterns within human society tremendously. The waves of migration from Europe to America were each inspired by the economic conditions at home. Therefore, we find the Irish, Germans, Italians, and English all coming during varied waves or periods overall when looking at the majority (naturally there were people from each group who moved for personal reasons). Nonetheless, the one thing that they all had in common was that they paid for their passage and they did not expect social benefits for free.
Today, the migration patterns are purely economic, but they are inspired by socialism whereby they need only show up and receive automatic income and benefits. When the European migration took place, predominantly during the 19th century and then waves after World War I and World War II, the people received no handouts from the taxpayer. There were no social programs to receive free living expenses. Churches provided food when people gave to charity BEFORE there were taxes. Europeans migrated to the United States to start new lives and to earn a living — not because they would be subsidized.
There are waves of migration that are caused by political unrest and no doubt some of that was at the reason for people fleeing Syria. Less know is the wave of refugees fleeing to Colombia and Venezuela who are also seeking security and economic stability since the army continues to support the Venezuelan socialist government that is collapsing. There were Americans in the south who fled to Brazil during the Civil War. They were called Confederados (Portuguese pronunciation: [kõfedeˈɾadus]) and were some 10,000 to 20,000 Confederate American refugees. They settled primarily in the state of São Paulo.
Providing welfare checks to show up on your soil alters the reasons for migration that have existed for thousands of years.
Published on Mar 6, 2017