Tag Archives: Inflation

Jul 20 2022

The Government is Tracking You


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yes, the government is tracking your movements. You do not need to have a COVID pass installed on your phone nor do you need to be a criminal. The location data industry has become a $12 billion market that is actively growing.

It recently came to light that the Trump Administration began tracking mobile data on a grand scale. The Department of Homeland Security targeted information on at least 336,000 data points across the country. Biden continued tracking American’s locations and provided the Customs and Border Protection with a $20,000 contract last September.

One company, Venntel, said that it has access to 250 million phones and devices. There are currently no restrictions on this invasion of privacy, and the government may legally track you and your family. This information has been abused by various agencies, such as one that tracked the location of people who visited abortion clinics.  The US military even used the technology to identify Muslim populations.

“There are over 350 million mobile devices in the United States in use today, and that number is growing exponentially as more people purchase mobile devices every day. Therefore it is not uncommon to encounter individuals involved with illicit activity taking advantage of mobile technology to further their criminal goals,” a contract between CBP and Venntel said.

You can attempt to turn off your device’s location, but that is extremely difficult considering the number of apps we use on a daily basis. GPS? Tracked! Social media? Tracked! Various search engines? You bet!

I believe this violates the Fourth Amendment, which is intended to protect citizens from unreasonable searches and seizures by the government.

Jul 19 2022

Coming Soon: Climate Change v Animal Activists


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Jul 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Two groups that usually overlap are about to come into direct confrontation due to the net-zero carbon culture. Both climate and animal rights activists have been known to make their voices heard through protests that are not always peaceful. Farmers are being unfairly targeted by climate change activists for having cattle that produce emissions, and governments are ramping up legislation to limit farming.

Farmers in Norway have been protesting for months as the government plans to eliminate around 30% of agriculture to reduce carbon emissions. Now, Northern Ireland is considering eliminating over one million cattle and sheep to meet emission targets by 2050. The Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) estimates that 500,000 cattle and 700,000 sheep will need to die. In a separate analysis, five million chickens will need to be slaughtered before 2035.

While animal activists to the extreme would like to end farming and create a meatless world, they are not going to be happy when they realize those piloting the climate change agenda plan to kill these animals rather than allowing them to live out their days on taxpayer-funded farms.

Activism aside, we are in the midst of a food crisis. Those in first-world nations have seen the cost of food rise drastically throughout the past year. Perhaps some of your groceries of choice are no longer available or are often out of stock. However, people are starving to death in less developed parts of the world at a rapid rate and there is not enough food or funding to save everyone. In fact, the World Bank estimated that world hunger reached a high in 2021 when 193 million became food insecure, a number that rose by 40 million from 2020. Our model indicates that this cycle will continue to grow.

In the meantime, those championing saving the world with various causes will come into direct confrontation with one another. The left will increasingly divide into left v Socialists and dampen plans for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Jul 19 2022

Biden Begs Saudi Arabia for Oil


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia did not go as planned. Saudi Arabia will temporarily increase oil production in July and August in exchange for a slew of removed restrictions. Civilian aircrafts from Israel will be permitted to fly over Saudi Arabia. Peacekeepers will be removed from Tiran Island, where US soldiers have been stationed since the late 1970s. Five Americans were killed in a helicopter crash over this region in 2020, but intel swears it had nothing to do with terrorism. Tiran Island will now be redeveloped into a tourist destination, although I am unsure how eager the general public will be to visit.

Per usual, Biden pledged to give a foreign nation tons of money to develop their infrastructure while leaving America in the dust. This will be done through support for the US Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), which was announced at the last G7 summit. The US will also help Saudi Arabia deploy 5G technology and expand internet access.

Humorously, Biden welcomed the Partnership Framework for Advancing Clean Energy to help Saudi Arabia “transition and combat the effects of climate change.” Oil is the Saudi’s bread and butter, and building green energy infrastructure is likely not a promise that will be kept.

Both the left and right are angry with the president for grappling at the feet of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Bernie Sanders slammed Biden for visiting Saudi Arabia. “If this country believes in anything, we believe in human rights, we believe in democracy, and I just don’t believe that we should be maintaining a warm relationship with a dictatorship like that,” Sanders said. Biden maintained that he spoke to the crown prince about the death of Khashoggi at the top of the meeting, but the crown prince maintained innocence and said to tread lightly when interfering in alleged human rights abuses.

Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia, explained it well. “The Crown Prince pointed out to President Biden that we the kingdom, the respect for human rights is a core value for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on our Islamic beliefs and our Arab heritage. And that it’s absolutely important that values be spread through dialogue. Trying to impose your values on others is not going to be effective. It will get you a negative reaction. … The right way to try and put your values forward is to show the world that you adhere first of all to those values, that you are respecting your own values.”

Basically, Saudi Arabia is going to continue operating as it sees fit and has the leverage to negotiate lucrative deals since the US is unwilling to drill. “In the end you cannot impose your values by force. … The Crown Prince was quite clear with President Biden, and we have our own values and those are not going to align 100% with US values ever because we are very, very proud of our own traditions, our own values, our own faith,” bin Farhan said.

Jul 19 2022

Russia to Cut off Germany from Gas Thanks to Zelensky


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is very interesting how Volodymyr Zelensky is doing whatever he can, not merely to destroy all of Europe, but to push the world into World War III because of his and Ukraine’s inherent hatred of Russians. He has told Justin Trudeau that Ukrainians would never accept Canada’s decision to return a gas turbine intended for a Russian pipeline because it would encourage more sanctions violations. Meanwhile, Gazprom has come out and stated that it could no longer guarantee its “good functioning” pipeline to Germany due to crucial turbines that are being held up in Canada because of sanctions.

Gazprom has declared extraordinary circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to Germany, whereby the gas flow to Europe will stop flowing indefinitely. Reuters reported a letter dated July 14, 2022. Zelensky thinks cutting gas supplies to Germany will force NATO to invade Russia. Kyiv will be the first to go before Zelensky can make it to his private jet to run off to enjoy the hundreds of millions he is stashing offshore.

Perhaps Germany should now invade Ukraine. It seems to be the only way to save Europe.

Our computer has been targeting here late July and August and high volatility and August as a Panic Cycle in some markets. But just about everything is going nuts into 2023. A quarterly closing above $6.25 in natural gas, which it has NOT been able to achieve this far, will confirm this is going to get much worse. Therefore, a September closing ABOVE $6.25 will be a serious warning for 2023. We had a rare Double Directional Change this quarter, so it looks like we have the most brain-dead crop of world leaders ever in human history and Zelensky, who I warned was the man who would create World War III.

Even NYC lost over 5,000 small businesses thanks to COVID. There isn’t a single decision these people are capable of making. It has reached the point that people who I know personally, who would be qualified to lead, are simply not interested due to the WOKE culture. We are simply headed into a politically created nightmare.

We see sharply higher volatility in August and the SIGNIFICANT risk of war coming in the first quarter of 2023. This is NOT something that is my personal opinion. The only thing that can actually target periods well in advance is an unbiased computer. It was Socrates that targeted 2008 as a Panic Cycle published back in 1999, which can be verified on the Wayback Machine. That was not only the Great Crash that set in motion negative interest rates theories, but it was the historical high in the euro.

Jul 19 2022

White House Economic Advisor Jared Bernstein Reacts to Putin’s Gasoline Price Plunge


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 18, 2022 | Sundance

During the White House press briefing today, the administration sent Jared Bernstein to the podium to discuss a recent drop in gasoline prices.  Bernstein was claiming that Joe Biden had lowered gasoline prices when journalist James Rosen asked a question. {Direct Rumble Link}

James Rosen asked Bernstein why it was “Putin’s price hikes” when the gasoline prices are increasing, but not “Putin’s price plunge” when gasoline prices are decreasing.  Bernstein attempted to clarify his position and ended up looking silly.  WATCH:

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Meanwhile, the Dallas Federal Reserve held its energy survey, there was some important feedback noted from the Oil and Gas industry.

I had not thought about some of these issues the professionals in the energy issue raised:

“The real energy crisis isn’t even here yet.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts U.S. oil production to an average 12.5 million barrels per day for the next 30 years.  This is all but impossible.  Shale will likely tip into terminal decline in about five years as the main shale plays run out of location.  Unfortunately, by then, most of the individuals with incumbent knowledge about offshore and international development will have retired.  The brain drain in the industry will create a real and much larger crisis in the mid-to-late 2020’s.”

Jul 19 2022

Furrowed Brows Deepen as Jake Tapper Accepts Results of Latest CNN Poll About Joe Biden


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 18, 2022 | Sundance

Jake Tapper called the latest CNN polling “shocking” as the results deepened his perpetually furrowed brow.   Just about every metric surveyed in the poll of Joe Biden’s job performance is the lowest that CNN has ever polled.  Unfortunately, despite the entire nation rejecting the Biden administration and having an adverse reaction to the outcomes of Biden policy, there is no indication anything is going to change.

As we have stated from the early moments after the election, Joe Biden is simply a disposable political puppet for the people who are really running the administration.  Biden was selected and installed for his unique levels of selfishness, dementia and stupidity.  He is the disposable front man for a single term of insane left wing policy execution centered around radical transformation of the U.S. economy via Green New Deal energy and social justice policies.  CNN is simply measuring the American response. WATCH:

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Jul 19 2022

Homebuilder Confidence Survey Records Largest Drop in History Sans Pandemic


Posted originally on the conservative tree on July 18, 2022 | Sundance

As expected, the latest National Association of Home Builders survey [Data Here] shows the July confidence opinion of industry professionals now reflects the largest single month drop in the history of the survey (removing pandemic impact).

On a macro level, home values peaked in April/May and have been dropping ever since.  Mortage rates have increased borrowing costs and inflation is squeezing home buyers out of their savings and/or down payment.  Home sales have stalled in multiple regions and the prices of existing homes for sale are dropping, quickly.  Many home building contracts are being cancelled and builders are now dropping prices in order to retain prior sales.

(Via Forbes) – […]  Builder confidence in the market for new homes posted its seventh consecutive monthly decline in July, falling 12 points to 55 for its second-biggest single-month drop in history, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Monday.

[…] In emailed comments, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson said confidence has “further to fall,” noting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last month alluded to the housing market’s “complicated situation,” saying potential home buyers “need a bit of a reset” as mortgage rates normalize at higher levels after remaining historically low during the pandemic.

“This is a meltdown,” says Shepherdson, noting home prices should soon start to drop and warning: “Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss.”  (read more)

Percentage of Buyer Contract Cancellations in last 30 days

Jul 19 2022

Battle Lines Being Drawn – Mike Pence Endorses Karrin Robson in Arizona, President Trump Endorses Kari Lake, Dueling Campaign Events Friday


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 18, 2022 | Sundance 

While the ranks of the MAGA rebel alliance continue to grow, it is obvious how the UniParty empire is striking back. On the presidential side of Republican politics, the Wall Street crowd are positioning their candidates:

The open-border GOPe crowd (Koch Inc.) have already put Kristi Noem into play with a book release and well financed marketing team. The foreign policy interventionist GOPe crowd (AIPAC lobby) are funding Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo respectively.  The GOPe white wine spritzer crowd (inside donor class) are funding the explorations of Mike Pence.  And the GOPe Wall Street hedge funds (political insurance experts and short sellers) are betting other people’s money on Ron DeSantis.

There will likely be other fish, but for now that’s the inside crew being financially fed by those who run the Republican Club.  Inside the death star, Decepticon Leader Mitch McConnell and the GOPe beltway control agents have contracted for the 2024 reupholstery of the club’s leather chairs, and the mahogany table is being refinished to remove scratches from the crystal brandy glasses that were slammed and shattered in prior bouts of UniParty frustration.

From the perspective of Republican club control, the MAGA rebellion must be crushed at all costs. Control over the mid-term outcome, which may include the intentional losing of key races in order to ensure full retention of club control, now heads into the championship rounds.  Mike Pence will lead the current fight in the battleground of Arizona, where the republican club cannot –and will not– permit the MAGA rebellion to interfere with their larger responsibility for open-borders and cheap labor migration.

There are trillions at stake. [Please note my emphasis below]

Washinton Post – PHOENIX — Former vice president Mike Pence is endorsing Arizona gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, a developer who has long been involved in Republican politics, instead of former president Donald Trump’s chosen candidate, Kari Lake.

[…]  The endorsement illustrates the division in the party between Trump supporters who value loyalty to him over all else and those who want to move on from endlessly litigating the 2020 election, including those who are grateful that Pence and other Republicans blocked Trump’s attempts to overturn the results. Trump and Pence, who are each thinking about running for president in 2024, both plan to be in Arizona on Friday to campaign for their chosen candidates ahead of an Aug. 2 primary.

Pence called Taylor Robson “the best choice for Arizona’s future” in a statement provided to The Washington Post.” (more)

Well, obviously, because all the best republicans provide advanced notice of intent to The Washington Post.  [[ insert massive eyeroll here ]]

Successful republican club politics always involves the illusion of choice.

Republican party candidates, those funded by the various mechanisms that eventually all lead back to Wall Street and the multinational banking and finance interests of the professional donor class, are more akin to Russian matryoshka nesting dolls.   Remove the top of one doll and the doll underneath is an exact duplicate, only smaller.  Keep removing them and eventually you get to the least visible doll, the one easiest to control, which is the one that all others are created to hide.

Pence is the biggest and most visible DeceptiCon in the republican club’s matryoshka operation.

I suspect Noem and/or DeSantis will be the doll we will find after all the other club masks fall.

Jul 18 2022

Estonia Forms New Government


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yet another shake-up among Schwab’s leaders. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stepped down from her role on a technicality before being reappointed a day later. Kallas’ Reform Party reached an agreement with the Social Democrats and Isamaa Party to form a new three-party coalition.

Estonia shares a 180-mile border with Russia and has strongly supported Ukraine before the war began. Estonia is a small nation with a population of around 31 million and a GDP of $36.29 billion USD. Their inflation rate is among the highest in Europe after spiking to 22% in June.

Estonia has a large Russian population but has the comfort of being a NATO nation. The new government is aiming to eliminate their Russian ties by banning Russian from being spoken in school. Russians and Belarusians now have a more difficult time immigrating to Estonia or even traveling there without a visa.

Estonia is cracking down on potential spies or intelligence agencies at the border. The poster above has appeared around the border, with the government encouraging people to turn in anyone who they suspect is involved with Russian intelligence agencies. Kallas also has the epigenetic fear of her neighbor as her mother, grandmother, and great-grandmother were once deported to Siberia. The small nation will use its strategic position to help the West’s proxy war, and Kallas herself said that negotiating a peace deal with Putin is off the table.

“For us, it is important to not make that mistake again like we did in Crimea, Donbas, Georgia,” she said. “We have done the same mistake already three times saying that, you know, negotiations, negotiated peace is the goal. … The only thing that Putin hears from this is that ‘I can do this because no punishment will follow.’”

Jul 18 2022

Australia’s Rental Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Renters across the globe are in a bad spot as housing has become unaffordable. The situation is particularly bad in Australia where rentals have reached a high not seen since 2009. As of March, the average rental was A$600 per week, surpassing the mid-2018 high of A$550. The is not enough supply to meet demand.

Housing availability dropped by nearly 50% from December 2021 to March 2022. The situation worsened once borders reopened as visa holders and tourists re-entered the nation. The vacancy rate, according to the CBD, has declined to 1.5% after peaking at 5.7% during the pandemic.

Some estimate that the “economic time bomb” of under-investment in affordable housing will cost taxpayers A$25 billion per year by 2051. Housing All Australians founder Rob Pradolin believes this figure is closer to A$110 billion, and believes a $55 billion investment could deliver a 2:1 cost-benefit ratio. At least 2 million Australian low-income households will be under “housing stress” by 2051. That is an optimistic forecast.

Similar to America, the UK, and many other nations, shelter inflation has caused housing costs to become one of the biggest budget expenses.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been accused of being out of touch by suggesting Australians simply buy a house. That is simply not possible for many, especially after the government-imposed lockdowns and shuttered countless businesses during COVID. Morrison has suggested allowing people to access their super (similar to pensions) early in order to purchase a home. Superannuation Minister Jane Hume said that this would result in rising home prices. Labor leader Anthony Albanese also criticized the plan by calling it a desperate “attack on future savings” and future generations. “If you take super away from people, then you’ll have higher deficits and bills from the government in the future,” he told reporters.

Oddly enough, Mr. Morrison vacated his own home, branded “Squat Morrison,” after losing the election to Albanese and taking his time leaving the property.

Unfortunately, Albanese has a worse plan in mind. Low-income residents will have the opportunity to buy a home, with the help of Big Brother government. The government will pay between 30% to 40% of total housing costs for 10,000 buyers annually. Instead of paying back the banks, the people must pay the government back if they can afford to do so.

You will own nothing and be happy.