Washington and Brussels have the proverbial Tiger by the tail; except in this case they have multiple Tigers by their collective tails. Russia, China, Syria, ISIS, Germany, India and North Korea; there is no way to control this situation.
Tag Archives: Obama Domestic policy
There are only a few more years left for the EU.
Schengen Agreement & the Fall of Europe
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You have been nominated for the FX analyst of the year in 2016 again. True, your calls on the Euro and the Swiss peg were amazing. But what has fascinated me even more is you also forecast that the Schengen Agreement would come to an end before the refugee crisis. Can you elaborate on how these forecasts are even possible for you obviously do what no one else has ever been able to accomplish?
Thank you for a eye-opening blog.
FJ
ANSWER: Everything is connected. Nothing takes place in some isolated vacuum. Hopefully, people will open their eyes and see what I see; when they do, it will change how the world is managed. Just the other day, a die-hard Democrat tried to argue that Trump would start World War III and that Hillary has more experience. I said her experience was limited to working at the State Department, hiding her own emails, and setting up a Canadian entity that sold foreign influence to the highest bidder who then deposited the money in her “charity”. Come on. What experience? Then I mentioned how people made the very same argument about Ronald Reagan, saying that he too was a tough “hawk” who would also start World War III. He continued to bring down the Berlin Wall.
When we wake up and realize that the system cannot be altered by one person, then perhaps we will start to investigate the truth. As far as the EU is concerned, it is a total disaster. Brussels is fighting Poland, Hungary has fallen further into an abyss, and passports are being checked again, even between Denmark and Sweden, because now everyone is afraid after Germany allowed rapists and terrorists in and tried to cover it up. In short, the EU is functionally moving into a supernova. Brussels remains in a state of denial and tries to force the EU upon everyone while denying any democratic process in order to save the jobs of the Eurocrats.
Everything is connected. The Schengen Agreement is just one domino. The Schengen Agreement was wearing down because of economic differences. Let’s be honest here. The ONLY country to have benefited from the creation of the euro was Germany. Why? It eliminated the FX risk for German manufacturers. Thus, Germany was able to expand its trade within Europe. The rest of Europe had to convert their debts to the euro and they doubled. The failed structure of the euro placed tremendous pressure upon the entire world economy. The collapse of the Schengen Agreement was inevitable and not exclusively caused by the refugee crisis.
So as Mark Twain said, “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” Keep in mind the euro still has a few years left. However, its days are clearly numbered, as we know it today.
More signs the the EU is likely to fail soon!
French Prime Minister: “The European Project Can Fail…”
The French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, said at DAVOS: “The European project can fail if we cannot resolve the security and the issue of refugees.” The idea behind the euro was that a single currency would expand the European economy and allow for free movement. That dream is coming to an end for they see that closing the borders will close trade and that reverses everything.
The two worst mistakes have been (1) the failure to consolidate member debt, and (2) accepting refugees by the millions from a region that is hostile. For intelligent people, they have demonstrated that book smart is still dumb.
Will there be a real change at the IMF or just more of the same?
Christine Lagarde’s Term at IMF Ends in July
On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) began the selection process for its next managing director to replace Christine Lagarde whose term will expire in early July. She was actually nominated by Obama for they were personal friends. It was Lagarde who effectively began the worldwide assault on tax havens by threatening them with isolation and the removal from the SWIFT system. She was also behind the attack on the Vatican that will force them to report all wires and parties on both sides for the tax nightmare that arrives in 2017.
The Executive Board will select three candidates from the nominations — that is unless Obama directs them to appoint another person against society to hunt down money for wasteful governments to support their pensions. The nominations should be in quickly and the selection process should be complete by March 3. The next member of the Troika governing Europe’s fate will begin their reign of economic terror on July 5.
The End of the EU Part Three!
Europe Moving Into Meltdown?
QUESTION: Marty, now the OECD is predicting a financial crash worse than the 2007-2009 event in Europe because they say there is over €1 trillion in bad loans that cannot be collected. They seem to be also changing their opinion to fit your model. Were they there in Berlin?
ANSWER: We cannot comment on if the OECD is following our model or who is attending a conference. They are the most widely attended and many just want to know where the computer stands.
We see a massive banking crisis. The European banks are in deep trouble. Deutsche Bank posted a shocking €6.7 billion euro loss with its shares falling 10% in a day. HSBC bought Republic National Bank in New York for a bit more than that. Barclay’s is pulling out of all emerging markets cutting 1,000+ jobs.
The collapse in commodities will reek havoc on all emerging market countries, but there is one economy which nobody pays attention to closely. That is Germany. Yes it is the largest economy and main supporter of the Euro. They need open borders and the Euro to maintain their economy which is EXPORT driven. China is advancing more rapidly than Germany and has focused on trying to develop its internal economy. Spain was the richest nation in Europe with all the gold coming in from America. But they failed to develop their internal economy and collapsed. Germany is declining. It cannot be sustain with open borders and the Euro because the rest of Europe is in serious decline. The refugee crisis is a nightmare and now Italy demands taxpayer money to bailout banks fearful that a bail-in will cause a revolution.
Merkel was against allowing in refugees previously, but then changed her position to combat her poor view for the treatment of Greece and then the brilliant idea of bringing in cheap labor again to help Germany. This entire refugee crisis is far beyond control and now the elites are beside themselves for the manipulations.
German Federal Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who is also head of the SPD, warned at the Economic Forum in Davos of a return to border fences and controls. That would be an economic disaster and would be rising unemployment. This is the German EXPORT model – that and the Euro. But it is coming and with it, the further decline of Germany. This will only fuel the dollar rally when Europeans realize that the break-up of the Euro may lead to Deutsche marks, but will they be better? Now even Soros is saying the collapse of the Euro is inevitable. So everyone is now joining the party; a bit late, but as they say, better late than never.
So welcome to the other side of 2015.75. We have a long way to go down into 2020. Here are only the technical projections. They also warn just taking out the 89 level produces a free-fall. This is unfortunately looking more and more like a total disaster of political incompetence and complete self-interest mismanagement.
The career politicians are incapable of saving Europe and instead are the very people pushing it over the edge. All they are focused on is saving their own ass in Brussels with their pensions. Jean-Claude Juncker has done such a great job destroying Europe, he was given a retroactive pay increase to more than €32,000 PER MONTH. Socrates would do a better job and we would charge based upon performance.
Can a computer be president? Hm. Way of the future?
The End of the EU Part Two!
The Final Straw for Britain?
The Telegraph reported on a shocking new court ruling that may become the final straw that sends the British out of the EU. This ruling has begun the decline into chaos within Britain’s asylum system. This court ruling held that four Syrian migrants should immediately be brought to Britain from what is known as “The Jungle” camp in Calais because they have a right to a family life.
This ruling has very profound implications for it upholds an idea that we are really citizens of the world, and therefore, have a right to live where we want. The borders are maintained politically and through taxes. If we truly recognize human rights in this context, then the power of government should decline.
The End of the EU Part One.
Greek Rising Civil Unrest
Alexis Tsipras has to implement pension reform in order to get more loans from Brussels. He is betraying everything the Greek people voted for and is pushing Greece over the edge. Brussels is demanding that the Greeks pay for the shenanigans of Goldman Sachs whom helped Greek politicians cook the books.
Protests against the pension cuts and tax increases in Greece are spreading throughout the country. On Thursday, Greek farmers blocked major roads with their tractors. Among other things, the traffic was hampered on the axis linking western Greece with Turkey. The sailors continued a 48-hour strike. Most ferries remained in port and the rail transport was hampered by work stoppages of railwaymen.
The ONLY solution is to exit the euro. Brussels is totally insane and their actions are designed only to maintain their own jobs. Merkel created this entire refugee mess by trying to show she was human while denying anything to Greece, despite Greece forgiving the German debt after World War II.
It is ironic that Merkel refused to bend for the Greeks, yet she let in hordes of “refugees” who are tearing Europe apart and have resulted in passports checks between member states.
Are we next to go cashless?
China to move to Electronic Currency
The People’s Bank of China held a seminar yesterday to discuss the
issuance of a digital currency. The Chinese central bank said issuing a digital
currency would have positive implication as it would reduce the high printing
and circulation costs of traditional cash notes, make economic transactions more
convenient and transparent, reduce money laundering and tax evasion and
strengthen the central bank’s control over money supply and circulation. The
Chinese central bank pledged to issue China’s own digital currency as early as
possible.
The Dollar will continue to rise as the world implodes!
Why Pegs to the US$ Will Break
Speculation is, at last, starting to rise that the HK$/US$ peg could break. The all-powerful governments are suddenly being seen as no so powerful. The massive dollar rally that our model has been forecasting is rather straight-forward. The higher the US$ rises, the more deflation will be exported to economies that are out of sync with the USA.
The dollar haters only talk about the $18 to $19 trillion debt and that is the sole reason, they assume, why commodities must rise and the dollar has to crumble. What they fail to see that it just so happens to be the WORLD. The sea of debt out there has exceeded $200 trillion. When you look at the U.S. government, I hate to say it, but it is a drop in the bucket.
Then we have China in a contractionary decline, Europe being torn apart thanks to the refugee crisis that will only get far worse, and emerging markets who assumed China would buy every commodity in sight forever. There is little hope of anything rising right now to offer any sort of an alternative to the US$ federal debt. Believe it or not, there is a SHORTAGE of federal debt when the entire world has only one place to park BIG MONEY.
Consequently, we will see virtually EVERY currency pegged to the dollar break from Hong Kong to the Middle East. Welcome to BIG BANG.
Worldwide people are seeing their governments do crazy things that make no since and are hurting them; soon all “TRUST” will be gone and chaos will reign!
Davos – The Collapse in TRUST
The most telling sign that we are headed into a real political-economic shit storm is the fact that “TRUST” is collapsing on all sides. Every chance Obama gets he wants to disarm Americans. Why? This is simply because government is in trouble and they no longer “trust” the people. Likewise, the “rich” are starting to withdraw their money from investment that would create jobs because they too are worried about the rising discontent among the majority of the population. Then we have the collapse in
trust” among the people of anyone who is a career politician. So welcome to the theme of Davos – the collapse in “trust”.
Centinel2012 