Goldman Sachs Predicts Stronger Economy Under Harris


Posted Sep 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

GoldmanSachs

Goldman Sachs, or Government Sachs as they are known in the industry, has bet on the establishment candidate. The person who has already spent four years in the White House will somehow repair the damage they caused to the US economy, according to Goldman Sachs, who strongly believes America should stay on the same losing trajectory.

We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse” from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists stated. Remember that Goldman Sachs places their employees within the US government as there is an ongoing revolving door. “We estimate that the contribution from immigration to labor force growth if Harris wins would be 10,000 per month higher than if Trump wins with divided government,” and 30,000 a month higher than if Trump secures the vote.

Goldman Sachs Predicts Stronger Economy Under Harris

Posted Sep 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

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GoldmanSachs

Goldman Sachs, or Government Sachs as they are known in the industry, has bet on the establishment candidate. The person who has already spent four years in the White House will somehow repair the damage they caused to the US economy, according to Goldman Sachs, who strongly believes America should stay on the same losing trajectory.

We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse” from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists stated. Remember that Goldman Sachs places their employees within the US government as there is an ongoing revolving door. “We estimate that the contribution from immigration to labor force growth if Harris wins would be 10,000 per month higher than if Trump wins with divided government,” and 30,000 a month higher than if Trump secures the vote.

America has spent billions on the migrant crisis which has toppled state and city budgets. We have over 8 million newcomers now living solely off government assistance. Goldman is preaching the same propaganda that these migrants are needed for America’s workforce, despite recent data showing a major slow in hiring in addition to numerous adjusted jobs reports that show NO new jobs have been created outside the public sector under Biden-Harris. They believe GDP would peak by 0.5 percentage points in Q2 of 2025 under a Trump victory.

A Harris victory would lead to a “very slight” boost in GDP compared to Trump, as “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates.” The “experts” believe that “the effects of policy changes would be small and neutral on net,” but the truth of the matter is that a Harris victory would guarantee a major economic downturn. It is astonishing that they expect the public to believe that the middle class will increase their spending through tax credits. They simply do not understand that a lack of confidence is the reason that people hoard, and under this economy, the middle class does not have any disposable income to spend.

Then they state that Trump’s tariffs on China, Mexico, and EU would cause inflation to rise by 30 to 40 bps. I do not support tariffs but we are seeing the Biden Administration slam China with new tariffs and one could reasonably believe Kamala would do the same. Do they understand Kamala’s corporate tax hike proposition and how that would decimate America’s ability to compete?

Harris is proposing taxing capital gains including UNREALIZED gains. The American public has nothing left to offer Uncle Sam and rest assured Harris will raise taxes as her countless spending packages come at a price. Goldman Sachs completely failed to consider the impact government spending has had on the overall economy.

Most importantly, Government Sachs did not factor in the strongest driver of inflation – WAR. War produces nothing and will not lead to an economic increase. Kamala Harris along with Joe Biden helped America become completely embedded in Ukraine and now Israel. Trump is the only candidate who wants to stop sending endless checks to Ukraine and end the war.

America has spent billions on the migrant crisis which has toppled state and city budgets. We have over 8 million newcomers now living solely off government assistance. Goldman is preaching the same propaganda that these migrants are needed for America’s workforce, despite recent data showing a major slow in hiring in addition to numerous adjusted jobs reports that show NO new jobs have been created outside the public sector under Biden-Harris. They believe GDP would peak by 0.5 percentage points in Q2 of 2025 under a Trump victory.

A Harris victory would lead to a “very slight” boost in GDP compared to Trump, as “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates.” The “experts” believe that “the effects of policy changes would be small and neutral on net,” but the truth of the matter is that a Harris victory would guarantee a major economic downturn. It is astonishing that they expect the public to believe that the middle class will increase their spending through tax credits. They simply do not understand that a lack of confidence is the reason that people hoard, and under this economy, the middle class does not have any disposable income to spend.

Then they state that Trump’s tariffs on China, Mexico, and EU would cause inflation to rise by 30 to 40 bps. I do not support tariffs but we are seeing the Biden Administration slam China with new tariffs and one could reasonably believe Kamala would do the same. Do they understand Kamala’s corporate tax hike proposition and how that would decimate America’s ability to compete?

Harris is proposing taxing capital gains including UNREALIZED gains. The American public has nothing left to offer Uncle Sam and rest assured Harris will raise taxes as her countless spending packages come at a price. Goldman Sachs completely failed to consider the impact government spending has had on the overall economy.

Most importantly, Government Sachs did not factor in the strongest driver of inflation – WAR. War produces nothing and will not lead to an economic increase. Kamala Harris along with Joe Biden helped America become completely embedded in Ukraine and now Israel. Trump is the only candidate who wants to stop sending endless checks to Ukraine and end the war.

These reports are meant to mislead the public and are nothing more than establishment propaganda.

Prisons Collaborate with the Private Sector – Free Labor


Posted originally on Sep 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Slavery is alive and well in the United States. Two-thirds of US prisoners, 800,000 men and women, have jobs in federal and state prisons. While 80% of prisoners work to maintain the prison in terms of maintenance, a growing portion of prisoners hold jobs for private companies. Estimates that that these prisoners are producing at least $11 billion annually for the US government and receiving little to nothing in return.

Non-industry workers can earn between 13 cents to 52 cents per hour. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas are not required to pay these workers. “There’s no way we can take care of our facilities, our roads, our ditches, if we didn’t have inmate labor,” Warren Yeager, a former Gulf county, Florida, commissioner said to the Florida Times-Union. In other words, states have become reliant on free labor from prisoners and actively put this into their budgets.

What some do not understand is that private companies are also employing prisoners. McDonald’s, Burger King, Golden Corral, Walmart, Wendy’s, IBM, Boeing, Motorola, Microsoft, AT&T, Texas Instruments, Dell, Compaq, Honeywell, Hewlett-Packard, Intel, TWA, Nordstrom’s, Revlon, Macy’s, and Target are among hundreds of private companies that have active agreements with state governments to farm out their prisoners. The private companies pay the prisons directly, bypassing the people who are forced to work long hours with no protections.

These workers have a far lower rate at being released on parole. The state believes they are safe enough to work among the public, but refuse to offer them an opportunity to leave. Only non-violent offenders are offered these jobs and most are swindled into accepting the positions to obtain favorable housing.

Alabama, for example, allows non-violent prisoners to work in the private sector for pennies. Yet, the state takes away 40% of their pay before taxes, charges them fees for transportation, laundry, and any extras they find. Alabama now earns more than $450 million annually on the backs of these workers.  It comes at no surprise that the parole rate in Alabama plummeted to 8% in 2023.

Prison Camp

American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) found that over 75% of workers are unable to take off work, and if they do, they risk being sentenced to solitary confinement and prevented from visitations with their families. About 70% of these workers said they cannot even afford to call home or purchase soap. They are denied all rights and treated as sub-humans. “The United States has a long, problematic history of using incarcerated workers as a source of cheap labor and to subsidize the costs of our bloated prison system,” said Turner, a principal human rights researcher with the ACLU’s Human Rights Program.

“The private contracting of prisoners for work fosters incentives to lock people up. Prisons depend on this incomeCorporate stockholders who make money off prisoners’ work lobby for longer sentences, in order to expand their workforce. The system feeds itself,” notes a study study by the Progressive Labor Party, which accuses the US prison complex of being “an imitation of Nazi Germany with respect to forced slave labor and concentration camps.”

Private prisons, in general, operate as businesses as they are guaranteed a fee per inmate, which US taxpayers pay. The majority of people are African American and Hispanic, but we hear silence from communities demanding reparations and failing to acknowledge that modern-day slavery is alive and well in the US. The private sector is creating jobs for the prison industry on behalf of the US government and this is one of the reasons that we see a decline in available jobs. The business is extremely lucrative because they profit on holding the inmates as well as forcing them to work.

So, these human beings were deemed stable enough to work unsupervised with the public. Yet, those same decision-makers turn around at sentencing and tell these workers that they are simply too dangerous to return home. This is why the United States, home of the free, hosts the largest prison population in the world. It always comes down to greed and money.

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Trudeau: Let Them Eat Donuts


Posted originally onSep 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong   

I commend the restraint displayed by this Canadian citizen. Failed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attempted to campaign to workers in Ontario who were utterly underwhelmed by his presence. Trudeau praised the 25% tariffs he placed on Chinese steel. “So that’s going to help me keep my job?” the citizen remarked.

No, tariffs NEVER work and the tariff on steel has only led China to retaliate. Trudeau’s Administration believes China’s “intentional, state-directed policy of overcapacity” is undermining Canada’s ability to compete and they plan to slap a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum from China, as well as a 100% tariff on EVs. China is the third-largest supplier of steel to Canada and Trudeau believes these tariffs “level the playing field for Canadian workers.”

China claims that this “will damage trade and economic cooperation” and “violated the WTO rules.” Over a million Canadians are actively seeking jobs and unemployment remains high. The central bank may have cut rates citing lowering inflation, but Canadian families certainly are not seeing their costs lowered. Canadians are struggling to find housing or to maintain the costs of their current homes. Demand far outweighs supply and the newcomers from foreign nations have tipped the scales.

Trudeau brushes off the comment from the citizen who is outraged that he pays 40% in taxes and lives the same life as his unemployed neighbor. This is how the world works under socialistic policies where equality voids hard work from the equation and does not amount to a better life. Canadians are watching their tax dollars being redistributed to those on social welfare programs. Billions are sent to Ukraine despite Canada having ZERO involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. Healthcare and basic necessities have become luxuries under Justin Trudeau.

The people who created the problem cannot solve it. Canadians have watched their economy decline under Trudeau, not to mention a complete alteration of their society due to a rapid change in demographics. “I think you are only here for another year, we won’t see you around in another year,” said the steel plant employee told Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau continues to show no empathy toward the average Canadian. “He’s got the donuts! Excellent!” Trudeau said to end the conversation. Sorry that you cannot afford housing or to see a doctor despite giving the government nearly half of your paycheck. Let them eat donuts.

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The First Soveregn Default of the United States on the Military


Posted originally on Aug 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Twain Father

QUESTION: I had an argument with my son that what they teach in school is never the truth, not even about history. I was trying to find that writing you did years ago that the GI Bill was enacted only because they defaulted on the soldiers twice before. If I remember correctly, I think you said Congress fled Philadelphia because of a riot by the soldiers from the Revolution that they also defaulted on as they did with the debts from the Continental Congress. My son said he never heard such a story and called it a conspiracy theory. We seem to be drifting further apart. We cannot agree on much of anything these days.

I guess Mark Twain’s comment about his father is still valid. It reminds me of that song in The Living Years. Perhaps we are in this endless generational war. Is this part of 2032?

Paul

ANSWER: Yes, Paul. It seems that these times are even dividing families. From the emails I get, I see that this is not unique. It appears to have begun with COVID. I had dinner with a friend who said his sister is in California and they have not spoken in years. My old partner Jack King, out of the blue, turned to me and said if he died, make sure his children got nothing and protect his second wife. Another two friends also no longer talk to their kids. Perhaps this is just part of the cycle going into 2032. We are witnessing that publicly with RFK as well.

My father wanted me to be a lawyer, but I did not want to follow that path. But when he was on his deathbed, we settled our differences with respect, and I am thankful for that. He was proud of me but would say that only to friends. Likewise, I always respected my father and what he taught me. I guess I had not told him how much I was also proud of him. At least we came to that understanding before he died. I guess those days of pride and respect are old-fashioned ideas in these days of chaos and uncertainty.

Perhaps your son respects you but cannot get the guts to tell you. Hopefully, he will come to see that what they teach in school is never the full story. There are no courses that connect all the dots. The only thing I regret is that the family name will die with me, although I am Martin VII. I have no heir to carry the name, so I guess that also dies in 2032. A neighbor is in his early 70s. He married someone in their 30s, and they are a great match. His wife is having twins. I am very happy for him since he is estranged from his prior children.

Continental60 1779
Debts_and_Engagements_Clause

Turning to your question about defaulting on the military, you remembered correctly. As I pointed out, the new United States defaulted on ALL debts of the previous Continental Congress despite Article VI expressly stating in the Constitution that they would honor those debts. When George Washington became the first US president in 1789, the capital city of the United States was New York. Then, in 1792, he was re-elected for his second term. However, the capital district had moved to Philadelphia. They may teach that Philadelphia was the capital for ten years. Yet, before becoming the capital, Philadelphia had been the home to Congress. That is where even the Declaration of Independence was signed. But there is a lot more to it than just that.

Philadelphia Independence Hall

What they do NOT teach in school because it would taint the image of the government. Congress fled Philadelphia much like the Senate of Rome fled when Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon, and the people did not support the Senate but cheered Caesar. The unspoken history is that in 1783, there was an uprising of the military against Congress, who refused to pay what they owed them. They called it the Pennsylvania Mutiny that chased Congress out of Philadelphia.

Dickinson John 1776

The Pennsylvania Mutiny of 1783 was an anti-government uprising over a sovereign default/debt crisis, not unlike Caesar crossing the Rubicon—nearly 400 soldiers of the Continental Army stormed Congress on June 17th, 1783. The mutiny and the refusal of the Executive Council of Pennsylvania to stop it was very significant. If you watched that series, I recommended the Sons of Liberty. The one man who walked out and refused to sign the Declaration of Independence was John Dickinson, who just so happened to be the President of the Executive Council of Pennsylvania and refused to act. I believe he was against the entire Revolution and supported the King. When Congress refused to honor the debts owed to the soldiers, curiously, Dickinson sought revenge and stood down, allowing the troops to go after Congress.

1781 Mutiny_of_the_Pennsylvania_Line

From March 1781, Congress shared the Pennsylvania State House (now known as Independence Hall) with the Supreme Executive Council of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Under the authority of the Articles of Confederation, Congress did not have direct control over the military, except in times of war, and was largely reliant on state militias to enforce laws and keep order. There had been a previous uprising called the Mutiny of the Pennsylvania Line that occurred in January 1781. The soldiers had legitimate grievances since they were not paid in almost a year.

1783 Mutiny Phil Gazet

The Continental Army soldiers stationed in Philadelphia sent a message on June 17th, 1783, demanding payment as contractually required for their service during the American Revolutionary War. Congress had refused to pay the army. The soldiers, in response, threatened to take action that day if their complaints were not addressed. Congress just ignored them, calling their bluff. The soldiers did not act on their threat. However, two days later, Congress received word that about 80 soldiers had left their post at Lancaster, Pennsylvania, about 60 miles outside of Philadelphia. They joined the soldiers stationed in Philadelphia. Now, the group was nearly 500 men. They seized control of all weapons and stores and munition depot.

Hamilton 2

Now, three days after their initial demand on the morning of June 20th, the State House was mobbed by a huge number of soldiers demanding payment. The soldiers blocked the door and initially refused to allow the delegates to leave. Alexander Hamilton (1757-1804), who at the time was a delegate from New York, stepped forward to persuade the soldiers to allow Congress to meet later to address their concerns. The soldiers yielded, allowing the members of Congress to adjourn that afternoon peacefully. However, Hamilton then called a small Congressional committee that night in secret to draft a message to John Dickinson, the President of the Executive Council of Pennsylvania. They asked him to protect Congress from the mutineers since they had no military. Hamilton had no intention of paying them. The letter threatened Dickinson that Congress would be forced to move elsewhere if Dickinson did not act.

Nassau_hall_Princeton NJ

The next day, June 21st, 1783, the Congress met again at the State House with members of the Pennsylvania Executive Council, including John Dickinson. The members of Congress petitioned Dickinson to protect the federal government. Dickinson said he would talk with the militia commanders and reply to Congress the next day. Dickinson, who walked out of the convention and refused to sign the Declaration of Independence, refused Congress’s request to protect them. The members of Congress then realized that perhaps Dickinson wanted the Congress to be wiped out. Congress fled Philadelphia and moved north to Nassau Hall in Princeton, New Jersey, which became the next capital of the United States.

Howe Heath

George Washington, learning about the mutiny in Philadelphia on June 24th, ordered 1,500 troops under the joint command of Major General Robert Howe and Major General William Heath to suppress the mutiny. Some of the mutineers were finally arrested. Congress then called an investigation into the event from a position of safety in Princeton, New Jersey.

Some have argued that John Dickinson did not act because he was uncertain that the local militiamen would comply and protect Congress from their fellow soldiers. Yet, many suspected Dickinson’s loyalties since he had been an officer in the militia and supported the soldiers’ actions. Some also believed that since Dickinson refused to sign the Declaration of Independence, he was anti-federalist and against the entire Revolution. Dickinson’s refusal to comply with Congress’s request to bring full military action against the soldiers caused some hesitancy regarding Dickinson.

Congress then moved from Princeton, New Jersey, in early November 1783, transferred to the next capital, Annapolis, Maryland, and then back to Trenton, New Jersey, in November 1784. Finally, Congress then moved again to New York City in January 1785. It was not until the Constitutional Convention in 1787 that the delegates decided to meet again in Philadelphia. Many assumed that Pennsylvania failed to protect Congress in 1783 due to Dickinson. This incident led many to insist that the federal government should have a separate location for its own security. Washington, DC, was a compromise between the North and the South. Jefferson agreed to support Hamilton’s idea of a national debt if the capital was to be removed to the middle of the colonies with land donated by Maryland and Virginia.

At the Constitutional Convention, the delegates agreed on Article I, Section 8, giving Congress the power “to exercise exclusive legislation in all cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten miles square) as may, by cession of particular states, and the acceptance of Congress, become the seat of the government of the United States.”

Robert Morris North American Land Company

After the Constitution was ratified by the colonies/states in 1788, the delegates agreed to keep New York City as the temporary federal capital. 1790, Congress passed the Residence Act, which created the District of Columbia. Robert Morris (1734–1806), a major funder of the Revolution, convinced Congress to return to Philadelphia while Washington, DC, was being built. As a result, the Residence Act declared Philadelphia to be the temporary capital for 10 years. In a final attempt to convince Congress to keep the capital in Philadelphia, the city began constructing a new presidential palace and expanding to Congress Hall. Those efforts failed, no doubt influenced by the failure of Dickinson in 1783. Congress met in Philadelphia for the last time on May 14th, 1800.

Bonus Army of 1932

Herbert Hoover lost the 1932 election largely because he called out the army against the protests of the World War I veterans, the Bonus Army, who were protesting simply to be paid what they had been promised. Just as the 1783 Mutiny over the refusal to honor the promises to veterans, they pulled the same stunt on the World War I veterans. When World War II came, Congress passed the GI Act and this time honored their promises for if they did not, the Neocons could not expand around the world following Korea.


The Freeman’s Journal or The North-American Intelligencer
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Wednesday, July 02, 1783

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